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Thread: The all new relegation priced thread 2019 (it gets earlier every year!).

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    Bournemouth just not battling to stay up. At home vs Watford and only 1 shot on target whereas Watford have 6. Bournemouth have 3 fouls and Watford 13! No heart.

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    Out as far as 28/1 following today's defeats for Villa and Bournemouth

  3. #103

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    Quote Originally Posted by SaintBobby View Post
    Out as far as 28/1 following today's defeats for Villa and Bournemouth
    Quick Heisenberg. You can get 28/1 for one of your "insurance bets".

  4. #104

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tamesaint View Post
    Quick Heisenberg. You can get 28/1 for one of your "insurance bets".
    To troll properly you should call him Glasgow

  5. #105

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    Quote Originally Posted by SaintBobby View Post
    Out as far as 28/1 following today's defeats for Villa and Bournemouth
    You can get 150/1 on Everton getting relegated, despite them having the same number of points as we do. Southampton finishing above Everton is 7/4 on SkyBet. Think I might have some of that, what do others think?

  6. #106

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    Quote Originally Posted by Danbert View Post
    You can get 150/1 on Everton getting relegated, despite them having the same number of points as we do. Southampton finishing above Everton is 7/4 on SkyBet. Think I might have some of that, what do others think?
    They have a decent squad, and more importantly now have a world-class manager. We could finish ahead of them, but I wouldn't touch 150/1 on them getting relegated with a barge pole.

  7. #107

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    We will know more after Saturday but a team who I think could struggle im the second half of the season is Wolves. I am not saying that they will be relegated but the spread betting firms have them the equivalent of 50/1 to finish in the bottom 6. For them to finish lower the odds escalate (eg 100/1 to finish 5th from bottom). This seems huge odds to me.

    They have already played more matches this season than anyone else and their performance last night was described by many as "tired". They are beginning to suffer from injuries and have big European matches to come. No wins in the last 5 games, they dont look healthy to me.

    On the balance of things, whilst they will I think struggle in the second half of the season they will need to really plummet to finish 6th from bottom. However they should not be 50/1 and there is a slom possibility of a big payout here.

  8. #108

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tamesaint View Post
    We will know more after Saturday but a team who I think could struggle im the second half of the season is Wolves. I am not saying that they will be relegated but the spread betting firms have them the equivalent of 50/1 to finish in the bottom 6. For them to finish lower the odds escalate (eg 100/1 to finish 5th from bottom). This seems huge odds to me.

    They have already played more matches this season than anyone else and their performance last night was described by many as "tired". They are beginning to suffer from injuries and have big European matches to come. No wins in the last 5 games, they dont look healthy to me.

    On the balance of things, whilst they will I think struggle in the second half of the season they will need to really plummet to finish 6th from bottom. However they should not be 50/1 and there is a slom possibility of a big payout here.
    I think they'll struggle too. A bottom half finish is available at 4/1 which I think is a sound bet. I'll have a few quid on that. Bottom 6 is a bit unlikely though, but a small bet at 50's is tempting.

  9. #109

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    Back to 20/1 after today’s surrender

    Mate text earlier and said a couple bookies are suggesting they might payout on Liverpool winning the league if Liverpool win again tomorrow? Any truth in this or just a publicity stunt?

  10. #110

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heisenberg View Post
    Back to 20/1 after today’s surrender

    Mate text earlier and said a couple bookies are suggesting they might payout on Liverpool winning the league if Liverpool win again tomorrow? Any truth in this or just a publicity stunt?
    Blimey mate. For such a betting guru you are a bit behind the game.

    Bet365 paidout on Liverpool winning the league a couple of weeks ago. Didn't you get paid or are Bet 365 one of the bookies that banned you for winning so much ??

  11. #111

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    Quote Originally Posted by egg View Post
    I think they'll struggle too. A bottom half finish is available at 4/1 which I think is a sound bet. I'll have a few quid on that. Bottom 6 is a bit unlikely though, but a small bet at 50's is tempting.
    If it is correct that Ralph says he doesn't need any strengthening of the squd this month I would suspect the bottom 6 is not such a bad bet

  12. #112

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    50/1 at Paddy Power. Get your insurance bets on....

  13. #113

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    That’s the win for me that has virtually seen us safe (at the very least, obvs should be looking higher now). Three wins away from the 40 point mark (which will be close to the safety mark this year IMO (maybe 38/39), playing as we have been doing, 3 wins from 14 is a no brainer. Even if we resort to an average of a point a game, that’d put us on 45 points and well clear, but we should be looking at 50+ points this season.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bpsaint View Post
    50/1 at Paddy Power. Get your insurance bets on....
    Interestingly, we’re level on points with Spurs who are as long as 1000 with some companies.

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    I think 43 could be the mark this year.

  16. #116

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    Norwich, Bournemouth & Brighton going for me. The latter have plummeted since getting excited and bizarrely giving Potter a new contract after only a few months.

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  17. #117

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tamesaint View Post
    Blimey mate. For such a betting guru you are a bit behind the game.

    Bet365 paidout on Liverpool winning the league a couple of weeks ago. Didn't you get paid or are Bet 365 one of the bookies that banned you for winning so much ??
    lol

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    Quote Originally Posted by hypochondriac View Post
    I think 43 could be the mark this year.
    No way, too many teams hovering around the 1 point per game mark around the bottom. A few will improve but you’re talking about 6 crap teams getting around 19 points from their last 14 games.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lighthouse View Post
    No way, too many teams hovering around the 1 point per game mark around the bottom. A few will improve but you’re talking about 6 crap teams getting around 19 points from their last 14 games.
    It's pretty unprecedented for the team in 19th to be on 23 after 24 games isn't it? I'm not sure it's happened before

  20. #120

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    Quote Originally Posted by hypochondriac View Post
    It's pretty unprecedented for the team in 19th to be on 23 after 24 games isn't it? I'm not sure it's happened before
    Would be interesting to see the table from this time last season to compare

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    Quote Originally Posted by hypochondriac View Post
    It's pretty unprecedented for the team in 19th to be on 23 after 24 games isn't it? I'm not sure it's happened before
    I don’t know but given the current scoring rate, the cut off for 43 points is Burnley in 14th. You’d need 4 of the 5 teams below them to all have a massive upturn in form.

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    This is interesting:

    The relegated sides went down on 16, 26 and 34 points last season. The teams in the relegation zone this season are on 17, 23 and 23 points with 14/15 games to go.

  23. #123

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    Quote Originally Posted by hypochondriac View Post
    This is interesting:

    The relegated sides went down on 16, 26 and 34 points last season. The teams in the relegation zone this season are on 17, 23 and 23 points with 14/15 games to go.
    From the same point (week 24) points won

    Cardiff +15 points
    Fulham +9
    Huddersfield +5

    -------------------------

    Brighton +10
    Saints +16

  24. #124

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    Year before that bottom 4 was

    Saints 36 points
    ------------------
    Swansea 33
    Stoke 33
    WBA 31

    Last 14 games teams picked up 10-14 points each

    Saints +14
    Swansea +13
    Stoke +10
    WBA +11

    Swansea blew it as only picked up 3 points from last 9 games

  25. #125

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    Incredible turnaround by Ralph and the team. 19th with 8 points after 12 games, now 9th with 31 points after 24 games. Sticking with the manager has really worked for us.

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    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

    On the stats website that estimates everyone's strength and then simulates the rest of the season thousands of times after each round of fixtures.

    Looks like 38 points would be almost exactly 50/50 to go down. Anything above that and it drops off dramatically.

  27. #127

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    Quote Originally Posted by hypochondriac View Post
    This is interesting:

    The relegated sides went down on 16, 26 and 34 points last season. The teams in the relegation zone this season are on 17, 23 and 23 points with 14/15 games to go.
    Basically it just looks like two teams will go down in the 37-39 point bracket. The bar is higher than last year but 43 would be a fairly large anomaly. For that you’d usually need the bottom two in the Villa/Derby points area from a few years ago, giving 4-6 points to pretty much everyone.

  28. #128

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy_D View Post
    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

    On the stats website that estimates everyone's strength and then simulates the rest of the season thousands of times after each round of fixtures.

    Looks like 38 points would be almost exactly 50/50 to go down. Anything above that and it drops off dramatically.
    Interesting. So we need another 12 points to be completely , utterly safe and another 24 to have the remotest sniff of a European place.

  29. #129

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    I think the league table is, if anything, under stating how strong our position is. We have played five teams for the second time, and at the time of playing them all five were in the top half of the table. And we have won four of the five.

    So, by definition, we have the entire bottom half of the table yet to play and only four teams in the top half. Many of our opponents will have a much tougher run in than us. And so it is by no means stupid to think about finishing in that top seven and, dependent on cup winners, a European spot. We also have only one of our squad injured (possibly two after last night) which again contrasts greatly with many others.

    We already have more points at this stage than the season under Konkani when we finished sixth. So dare to dream....

  30. #130

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    Quote Originally Posted by Forester View Post
    I think the league table is, if anything, under stating how strong our position is. We have played five teams for the second time, and at the time of playing them all five were in the top half of the table. And we have won four of the five.

    So, by definition, we have the entire bottom half of the table yet to play and only four teams in the top half. Many of our opponents will have a much tougher run in than us. And so it is by no means stupid to think about finishing in that top seven and, dependent on cup winners, a European spot. We also have only one of our squad injured (possibly two after last night) which again contrasts greatly with many others.

    We already have more points at this stage than the season under Konkani when we finished sixth. So dare to dream....
    Or even Koeman!

  31. #131

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    Quote Originally Posted by Forester View Post
    I think the league table is, if anything, under stating how strong our position is. We have played five teams for the second time, and at the time of playing them all five were in the top half of the table. And we have won four of the five.

    So, by definition, we have the entire bottom half of the table yet to play and only four teams in the top half. Many of our opponents will have a much tougher run in than us. And so it is by no means stupid to think about finishing in that top seven and, dependent on cup winners, a European spot. We also have only one of our squad injured (possibly two after last night) which again contrasts greatly with many others.

    We already have more points at this stage than the season under Konkani when we finished sixth. So dare to dream....
    This is all sound logic, but we have really struggled to beat teams below us in recent seasons. Didn't we go about two years without beating a newly promoted team?

    Actually, ignore that because we have already won all three of those games this season so far - Sheff Utd and Villa away, and Norwich at home.

    The signs are good indeed.

  32. #132

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lighthouse View Post
    Basically it just looks like two teams will go down in the 37-39 point bracket. The bar is higher than last year but 43 would be a fairly large anomaly. For that you’d usually need the bottom two in the Villa/Derby points area from a few years ago, giving 4-6 points to pretty much everyone.
    True, in the 2002/03 season Hammers went down with 42 points, but WBA and Sunderland below them had only 29 and 19 points:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002–0...e#League_table

    Still, we can still hope West Ham repeat their feat!

  33. #133

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    West Ham United say staying in the Premier League is "an absolute necessity" after posting financial losses of £27.26m.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/51277627

    Poor old Hammers. I almost shed a tear for them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Munster View Post
    West Ham United say staying in the Premier League is "an absolute necessity" after posting financial losses of £27.26m.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/51277627

    Poor old Hammers. I almost shed a tear for them.
    Imagine how ****ed they'd be if they were actually having to pay a proper amount for their stadium.

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