Saints need to win 16 out of 21 league games

[AndyD]

Basically I think 50 pts (16 wins, 2 draws) - which will give us 79 pts will be enough (I hope) to get 6th place...

 

Gutted bout 1-1 today - just sriving back from taking my daughter to Tesco and had the biggest grin when Lambo scored, by the time I'd reached the next junction I was cathcing flies.. FFS

 

Why wasn't connolly on for last 30 mins?

 

At least Pompey WILL get relegated ;-)

[Glasgow_Saint]

Wont happen if we go to games to draw (like we did today)

[alpine_saint]

Seeing as ca. half of them will be away from home, and we dont try particularly hard to win away from home, it just aint going to happen.

[Ewell]

Take it one game at a time and if we are in with a shout with a month left to go then I think that is a bonus.

 

We are not going to get anywhere unless we learn to close out games and keep clean sheets though. To play poorly and win is the sign of a good team. We do not have that quality yet!

[SNSUN]

I've said I'll always just look at the next fixture, but it's hard not to look ahead and see where we're going.

 

I think I'll definitely just take each game as it comes now. 1-1 isn't a bad result away from home against a play-off hopeful, granted a win was probably a neccessity for play-off hope, but it could also have been worse, especially with the way we performed today. If anything, from the sound of it, Millwall were the better team all game, which means effectively, WE robbed THEM, and not the other way round.

 

The good run of form perhaps distorted our views of where we're at this season. While the play-offs are still achievable, Saints fans will still want to make them, but as far as consolidating out League One position is going, we're doing ok.

 

Defence sorted last week, now for the attack. I expect Pards will be very busy for the last 16 days of the transfer window.

[.comsaint]

Pardew said on Solent that we need to win 14 of our remaining games.

 

So...

 

The target is set!

[bjk]

It's not going to happen this season,the points deduction and the bad start to the season has left us with too much to do.We must get a good start next season.

[John Smith]

As I always said, play-offs would be a dream this year, mid table would be very good, looking upward instead of downward is where we want to be.

 

Just for the doubters, we're only 5 points off relegation and 12 points off the play-offs.

 

For the positive, over the last 6 seasons, anywhere between 71 and 76 points will get you 6th spot. This year could be lower as many more clubs taking points off each other, maybe as low as 68 to get 6th.

 

We need to do our best and fate will place us where we need to be. If we don;t go up this season, that's ok, we start on an equal footing next season. Don;t think that money will ever buy you a title, ask Man city owners about that!

[CanadaSaint]

For the positive, over the last 6 seasons, anywhere between 71 and 76 points will get you 6th spot. This year could be lower as many more clubs taking points off each other, maybe as low as 68 to get 6th.

 

I agree with you about the divisional parity. I don't think it will be higher than 71 and, as you say, it could be a chunk lower.

 

Pardew said on Solent that we need to win 14 of our remaining games.

 

So...

 

The target is set!

 

If we win 14 of the remaining 21 games we'll hit 71 points, so I think Pards is erring on the cautious side, especially as we should win a goal difference tie-breaker.

 

I'm still fairly optimistic even though it's asking a lot. We have an excellent squad that's more than capable of going on an extended winning streak, once the new guys settle in.

 

Today was disappointing but we can afford the odd draw and even loss. There's no reason yet for all the negative sh*t on the other thread, even if it does come from the usual suspects.

[hutch]

...If we win 14 of the remaining 21 games we'll hit 71 points...

Only if we were to lose the other 7. We won't. We didn't lose 7 in the first half of the season, remember.

[Matthew Le God]

Win 14, Draw 5, Lose 2.

 

That could see Saint in the playoffs on 76 points. Very hard to do though.

[John B]

I agree with you about the divisional parity. I don't think it will be higher than 71 and, as you say, it could be a chunk lower.

 

 

 

If we win 14 of the remaining 21 games we'll hit 71 points, so I think Pards is erring on the cautious side, especially as we should win a goal difference tie-breaker.

 

I'm still fairly optimistic even though it's asking a lot. We have an excellent squad that's more than capable of going on an extended winning streak, once the new guys settle in.

 

Today was disappointing but we can afford the odd draw and even loss. There's no reason yet for all the negative sh*t on the other thread, even if it does come from the usual suspects.

 

Mathematically anything is possible but in reality it is not as we are not playing particularly well and I doubt that the other promotion hopefulls will not get 71 points

 

 

Huddersfield 24 12W 5D 7L

Swindon 23 11W 8D 4L

Colchester 24 13W 6D 5L so far

Edited 16 January, 2010 by John B

[CanadaSaint]

Only if we were to lose the other 7. We won't. We didn't lose 7 in the first half of the season, remember.

 

Right. I can't see us losing 7, and the question is whether we can hit the right win/draw split. A win today would have been a great start, but we'd probably have chalked Millwall away up as a draw anyway.

[Matthew Le God]

especially as we should win a goal difference tie-breaker.

 

Only against Swindon, not necessarily against Huddersfield or Colchester.

[CanadaSaint]

Only against Swindon, not necessarily against Huddersfield or Colchester.

 

Our GD is good, and if we go on a tear to hit the sixth spot I think it will end up better than either Huddersfield or Colchester, or any of the other possible rivals. Don't you think?

[Fitzhugh Fella]

Putting results aside, we simply have not been playing well for 3 months.

 

Don't know why - something just isn't right.

 

Picking up ugly wins is great but it sort of obscures an underlying problem which by the season's conclusion will find us out. A draw at the New Den is creditable but it seems the manner of our performance is cause for concern.

 

Personally I would look at midfield where I think we are weak. Schneiderlein, James, Wotton and even Hammond, to a degree just don't cut the mustard.

 

Lallana after an impressive start has gone off the boil and that effects the whole shape of the team.

 

We are deffo at a bit of a crossroads and if the MK Dons hammer us on Wednesday - our season will be over.

[alpine_saint]

Putting results aside, we simply have not been playing well for 3 months.

 

Don't know why - something just isn't right.

 

Picking up ugly wins is great but it sort of obscures an underlying problem which by the season's conclusion will find us out. A draw at the New Den is creditable but it seems the manner of our performance is cause for concern.

 

Personally I would look at midfield where I think we are weak. Schneiderlein, James, Wotton and even Hammond, to a degree just don't cut the mustard.

 

Lallana after an impressive start has gone off the boil and that effects the whole shape of the team.

 

We are deffo at a bit of a crossroads and if the MK Dons hammer us on Wednesday - our season will be over.

 

Agree with this post, especially the midfield concerns.

[Arizona]

This kind of bi-polar attitude is beginning to get on my tits.

 

Before we played Leeds and had something like 10 wins in 13, everyone was convinced we were the best team in the League and pretty much took a playoff spot as given. Now after a couple of defeats away to team in the top four, and a draw at Millwall, it's doom and gloom again.

 

To make the playoffs, with a 10 point deduction and after a poor start, we basically need League winning form. This with a squad which is essentially being built as we go.

 

Another reality which a few people seem to have bypassed is that League 1 is worse than The Championship. You just don't get pretty football. Sure some teams like Leeds play better stuff than others, but they're the exception rather than the norm.

[SFC Forever]

I have been saying for two years that we have a weak midfield. Ap has started with a **** poor team and improved it no end. Now though he needs to decide where we intend to go next. Our midfield needs urgent attention and that means players like Stock and Danns are a necessity. For any team to play smooth flowing football you must have a midfield.

[Pat from Poole]

I have been saying for two years that we have a weak midfield. Ap has started with a **** poor team and improved it no end. Now though he needs to decide where we intend to go next. Our midfield needs urgent attention and that means players like Stock and Danns are a necessity. For any team to play smooth flowing football you must have a midfield.

 

 

The top teams by and large dominate possession and have more of the play in the opposing team's third because they have the strongest midfields. Goalscorers get the glory but they only get the chances because of the midfield.

 

None of this is rocket science, but in this League you need tough athletes in midfield.

 

I'm not convinced our players are fit enough either, to be honest.

[Draino76]

Oh **** I don't know. I'm sure we wont go up at all this year; but I'm happy about that.

[LaptopSaint]

Putting results aside, we simply have not been playing well for 3 months.

 

Don't know why - something just isn't right.

 

Picking up ugly wins is great but it sort of obscures an underlying problem which by the season's conclusion will find us out. A draw at the New Den is creditable but it seems the manner of our performance is cause for concern.

 

Personally I would look at midfield where I think we are weak. Schneiderlein, James, Wotton and even Hammond, to a degree just don't cut the mustard.

 

Lallana after an impressive start has gone off the boil and that effects the whole shape of the team.

 

We are deffo at a bit of a crossroads and if the MK Dons hammer us on Wednesday - our season will be over.

 

 

Well let's take the last three months then. Since the beginning of October in all competitions our record is 15-3-3 (or 13-5-3 if you count the two JPT wins on penalties as draws). Pretty bloody good - and certainly good enough to make Pardew's 14 wins from 21 a realistic target. So it depends on how you define 'not playing well'. Are we winning a hell of a lot more than we're drawing and losing? Yes. Do we look like Arsenal? Er, no. This is League One - and you often have to play and win in a League One kind of way. I've got a mate who's a Leeds fan who says their problem for at least a season and a half is that they were trying to get out of League One by playing the wrong kind of football. It's not always pretty. But if people continue to moan about our performances and if we continue to win about seventy per cent of our games -- well, moan away. See if I care.

[IFHP]

Putting results aside, we simply have not been playing well for 3 months.

 

Don't know why - something just isn't right.

 

Picking up ugly wins is great but it sort of obscures an underlying problem which by the season's conclusion will find us out. A draw at the New Den is creditable but it seems the manner of our performance is cause for concern.

 

Personally I would look at midfield where I think we are weak. Schneiderlein, James, Wotton and even Hammond, to a degree just don't cut the mustard.

 

Lallana after an impressive start has gone off the boil and that effects the whole shape of the team.

 

We are deffo at a bit of a crossroads and if the MK Dons hammer us on Wednesday - our season will be over.

 

Agree with that.

 

The last 2 league games have killed off our play-off hopes, now we have a big game on Wednesday. The question is will the team perform?

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Well let's take the last three months then. Since the beginning of October in all competitions our record is 15-3-3 (or 13-5-3 if you count the two JPT wins on penalties as draws). Pretty bloody good - and certainly good enough to make Pardew's 14 wins from 21 a realistic target. So it depends on how you define 'not playing well'. Are we winning a hell of a lot more than we're drawing and losing? Yes. Do we look like Arsenal? Er, no. This is League One - and you often have to play and win in a League One kind of way. I've got a mate who's a Leeds fan who says their problem for at least a season and a half is that they were trying to get out of League One by playing the wrong kind of football. It's not always pretty. But if people continue to moan about our performances and if we continue to win about seventy per cent of our games -- well, moan away. See if I care.

 

The old 'it doesn't matter how you play' argument rears its oh so ugly head again .

 

The point FF was making is perfectly valid in my opinion , and while it's obviously true you can play badly and still win on occasion (good teams often do) the record shows that we've played pretty badly and dropped 7 of the last 12 available points - many might say those two facts are not entirely unconnected . I reckon if we continue to play as poorly as we undoubtedly have in recent weeks/months then we'll finish this season rather closer to the bottom of the table than the top .

 

Play good football = Get good results .

[doddisalegend]

This kind of bi-polar attitude is beginning to get on my tits.

 

Before we played Leeds and had something like 10 wins in 13, everyone was convinced we were the best team in the League and pretty much took a playoff spot as given. Now after a couple of defeats away to team in the top four, and a draw at Millwall, it's doom and gloom again.

 

I agree with this. It seems the usual suspects have all crawled out of the wood work now we've lost a couple. Truthfully with the players we had at the start of the season with -10 pionts I expected very little from this season. I'm enjoying this season, I'm happy with things considering what I thought we'd achieve this season. The idea we're going to win every match is stupid even Manure can't win every match. I'm not worried becuase the plan (IMO) was always to win this league next year promotion this year was a long shot and a bonus I reckon.

[polegategavin]

It is going to be an exciting remainder to the season, as we are going to be playing attacking football then. The only way we are going to win 14 to 16 of the remaining 21 games is to play attacking football, particularly at home.

 

IMHO we need a creative midfielder and possibly a wide midfielder to add to the squad if we have a chance of doing this, and I feel we will try to make these signings before the end of the week to ensure we have them for as many games as possible, as well as the fact that we have lost Hammond for at least a couple of league matches.

 

I am not in the know but feel we will see more transfer activity this week!

[aintforever]

Wont happen if we go to games to draw (like we did today)

 

Exactly, Pardew's tactics were way too negative yesterday, a draw is pretty useless to us at the moment.

[John B]

Exactly, Pardew's tactics were way too negative yesterday, a draw is pretty useless to us at the moment.

 

Yes I agree but I think a draw against Millwall away is a good result where as they have only lost one game this season

[LaptopSaint]

The old 'it doesn't matter how you play' argument rears its oh so ugly head again .

 

The point FF was making is perfectly valid in my opinion , and while it's obviously true you can play badly and still win on occasion (good teams often do) the record shows that we've played pretty badly and dropped 7 of the last 12 available points - many might say those two facts are not entirely unconnected . I reckon if we continue to play as poorly as we undoubtedly have in recent weeks/months then we'll finish this season rather closer to the bottom of the table than the top .

 

Play good football = Get good results .

 

We may have dropped 7 of the last twelve points but the fact is that over the last 21 games our win-draw-loss ratio is pretty bloody good. Which gives me some grounds for optimism for the next 21 games, especially now that we are strengthening the squad. Does it mean we'll get promoted? No. But I disagree with you - I think we'll finish nearer the top than the bottom.

[NickG]

21 games to go,

 

last 21 games;

Won 10

Drawn 7

Lost 4

points 37

 

If we match that we would give us a total of 66 points.

 

That would have been about 9th for last couple of seasons.

 

most of the draws in the early part of those 21 games.

[NickG]

21 games to go,

 

last 21 games;

Won 10

Drawn 7

Lost 4

points 37

 

If we match that we would give us a total of 66 points.

 

That would have been about 9th for last couple of seasons.

 

most of the draws in the early part of those 21 games.

 

those last 21 games started with 3 draws - 3 wins and we are well ahead of the stat!

 

Who knows!

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

We may have dropped 7 of the last twelve points but the fact is that over the last 21 games our win-draw-loss ratio is pretty bloody good. Which gives me some grounds for optimism for the next 21 games, especially now that we are strengthening the squad. Does it mean we'll get promoted? No. But I disagree with you - I think we'll finish nearer the top than the bottom.

 

If you want to argue stats then the record shows our season long average is well under 2 points per game . On the wider point of where we are going this season can I ask have you actually seen us play recently ? - If the answer is yes then the basis of your view that we going to climb the table seems rather scant to this fan .

 

Again - to get good results (more often than not) you need to play good football .

Edited 18 January, 2010 by CHAPEL END CHARLIE
typo

[Wes Tender]

We are deffo at a bit of a crossroads and if the MK Dons hammer us on Wednesday - our season will be over.

 

I'm surprised at such a conclusion from the club's historian, frankly.

 

If MK Dons hammer us on Wednesday, it is equally possible that we could hammer them on the return match at home. Look at their season so far. There have been many instances of them leaking lots of goals and they only have goal difference of 5 against our thirteen. On their away form, they concede as many as they score. So they could hammer us on Wednesday and we could still go on to lift the JPT Cup. Presumaby, if both things happened, our season would not be over.

 

We've already beaten them 3-1 here. Is there any particular reason why we shouldn't beat them there with arguably a better team?

[John B]

I'm surprised at such a conclusion from the club's historian, frankly.

 

If MK Dons hammer us on Wednesday, it is equally possible that we could hammer them on the return match at home. Look at their season so far. There have been many instances of them leaking lots of goals and they only have goal difference of 5 against our thirteen. On their away form, they concede as many as they score. So they could hammer us on Wednesday and we could still go on to lift the JPT Cup. Presumaby, if both things happened, our season would not be over.

 

We've already beaten them 3-1 here. Is there any particular reason why we shouldn't beat them there with arguably a better team?

 

Do you not read posts Wes.

 

 

What he said was if not they will hammer us.

 

 

If they do hammer us surely our season is over possibly as club Historian he has seen it happen before.

 

 

I do agree that it is a very important game as is the return on Feb 9

[Wes Tender]

I read it better than you did, obviously, John. Here is his quote:-

 

We are deffo at a bit of a crossroads and if the MK Dons hammer us on Wednesday - our season will be over.

 

Can you explain therefore why a bad result in one leg of a two-legged fixture should finish our season? As I explained, even if we are tonked away, there is always the possibility of us winning by more on the return fixture. MK Dons have already proved that themselves, that although they are capable of notching up the goals, their defence is equally leaky as the goals conceded in the matches against Charlton (5), Carlisle (4) Exeter (3) and Swindon (4) prove.

 

It is only after both legs have been played that any sort of projection might be guessed at and note the use of the word "guessed", as it is even then pure conjecture as to how the team might react. They might pick themselves up and give the next opponents a thrashing, you never know.

[John B]

I read it better than you did, obviously, John. Here is his quote:-

 

 

 

Can you explain therefore why a bad result in one leg of a two-legged fixture should finish our season? As I explained, even if we are tonked away, there is always the possibility of us winning by more on the return fixture. MK Dons have already proved that themselves, that although they are capable of notching up the goals, their defence is equally leaky as the goals conceded in the matches against Charlton (5), Carlisle (4) Exeter (3) and Swindon (4) prove.

 

It is only after both legs have been played that any sort of projection might be guessed at and note the use of the word "guessed", as it is even then pure conjecture as to how the team might react. They might pick themselves up and give the next opponents a thrashing, you never know.

 

 

I dont think we are going to get hammered - I have bought my ticket today for the game at St Mary's and fully expect to go to Wembley.

 

 

However if we do get hammered it will be difficult to win on the 9th and our season will in effect be over the game on Wednesday is very important that is FF's point.

[krissyboy31]

I dont think we are going to get hammered - I have bought my ticket today for the game at St Mary's and fully expect to go to Wembley.

 

 

However if we do get hammered it will be difficult to win on the 9th and our season will in effect be over the game on Wednesday is very important that is FF's point.

 

Milton Keynes are capable of beating us. They are not however capable of hammering us (IMO there is no team and I include Leeds in that, capable of hammering us in this Division). I reckon we'll draw on Wednesday and comfortably beat them at St Mary's.

[Saint Fan CaM]

We will win both legs. You heard it here first.

[Wes Tender]

I dont think we are going to get hammered - I have bought my ticket today for the game at St Mary's and fully expect to go to Wembley.

 

However if we do get hammered it will be difficult to win on the 9th and our season will in effect be over the game on Wednesday is very important that is FF's point.

 

Well, for the reasons I gave, I don't think that the point was well made, not considering Duncan's position. I presume that you accept that it was you who misread his comment? He did indeed say "if" we lose rather than "if not" they will hammer us?

 

But I agree with you and krissyboy anyway. I would be most surprised if they hammered us on Wednesday. No other team has hammered us this season and we have already shown them that we can beat them convincingly, so we have the upper hand psychologically. But there is absolutely no reason to conclude that even if we did lose that our season would somehow fall apart. There might have been precedent for it happening historically, but it has been some considerable amount of time when we were last down here and circumstances now are different to then even now.