Points for promotion / play-offs

[Brother Smith]

I have analysed the Championship / Division 1 tables for the last 10 seasons and here are the Average and Median points totals for automatic promotion and to make the play-offs:

 

1st 2nd 6th

 

94 87 73 Average

94 87 74 Median

 

Based on these calculations 28 points from the last 14 games would normally bring automatic promotion.

 

15 points would normally mean a play-off spot.

 

But in football anything can happen and probably will.

[Thedelldays]

I think 83-84 will be enough for top 2

 

87 and you are champions IMO

 

west ham have probably the toughest run-in

 

still to play

boro

leeds

blackpool

brum

reading

hull

cardiff

leicester

 

would be stunned if they got more than 17 points from that lot

Edited 20 February, 2012 by Thedelldays

[FarehamRed]

Personally, I think if we finish above Birmingham, we'll go up automatically.

[Saint Garrett]

Personally, I think if we finish above Birmingham, we'll go up automatically.

What about Reading...wouldn't like to rule them out at the moment. Could be a huge game when we play them.

[FarehamRed]

What about Reading...wouldn't like to rule them out at the moment. Could be a huge game when we play them.

 

Reading are a good side, but I can't see them finishing above West Ham. I can see Birmingham finishing above the Hammers. Of all the teams around us, they're the one's who could go on a winning run from now on. (IMHO, anyway).

[benjii]

*waiting for some div to post that you only need to get one point more than the average for third to finish second*

 

We have six home games left and 8 away. If we get to 85 points (ie. take a further 26) then the teams below us would have to achieve the following points per game average to get to 85:

 

West Ham - 1.75

Reading - 2.06

Cardiff - 2.29

Blackpool - 2.2

Birmingham - 2.125

Hull and Boro - 2.19

 

Of those, only West Ham currently equal or better the average required and all apart from Birmingham would also need a big GD swing in their favour to pip us.

 

So, I reckon 85 points would be enough for second and it could well be slightly lower. 26 from 14 is no mean feat, however we could get a significant chunk of those at home...

 

If we can get 15 points from our remaining 6 home games then 11 points from our 8 away should be enough for promotion. That's a minimum away record of 3-2-3, or 4-0-4 or 2-5-1 (or better). 11 from 8 is an average of 1.38. Our current away average is only 1.2, which is quite poor, although we have been reasonably unlucky away from home IMO. Had one of our losses been a win (Brighton, for instance) our average would be 1.4 away from home.

 

Obviously our season average includes the poor run in December/Jan.

 

So, if you are confident that we will win at least 4 or 5 of our home games and that our away form will be more like the first third of the season than the second it will take a hell of a run from someone else to keep us out of the top two.

[Jones91]

If we do get automatic, its looking like we'll get it away from home, P'boro or M'boro...

[Guy]

You also need to list the average for 3rd Place +1pt as that's what you need for 2nd place, so will probably be a couple of points less than the 87 average that 2nd place ends up with.

[iansums]

You also need to list the average for 3rd Place +1pt as that's what you need for 2nd place, so will probably be a couple of points less than the 87 average that 2nd place ends up with.

 

benjii thinks your a div!

 

Statistics, statistics. Only one thing is for certain, it's soon gonna be squeaky bum time.

[Brother Smith]

"You also need to list the average for 3rd Place +1pt as that's what you need for 2nd place, so will probably be a couple of points less than the 87 average that 2nd place ends up with".

 

A very good point and a very interesting result.

 

The average for 3rd place is 81 points (median is 80).

 

Based on this average plus 1 point, a further 22 (7 wins 1 draw and 6 defeats) from the last 14 games would normally bring automatic promotion.

 

But as soeone once said: "It's a funny old game, Saints!"

[krissyboy31]

I have analysed the Championship / Division 1 tables for the last 10 seasons and here are the Average and Median points totals for automatic promotion and to make the play-offs:

 

1st 2nd 6th

 

94 87 73 Average

94 87 74 Median

 

Based on these calculations 28 points from the last 14 games would normally bring automatic promotion.

 

15 points would normally mean a play-off spot.

 

But in football anything can happen and probably will.

You forgot the average for 17th place for Dalek's benefit.

[SaintBobby]

Seems to me that we are pretty much nailed on to make the play-offs, which was the height of my ambitions at the start of the season.

 

The bookies have us at 5/2 to win the division and 4/6 to get promoted by any means.

 

West Ham are about evens to win the division and about 2/9 to get promoted. These odds seem to overstate their chances, I'd say.

 

It seems unlikely to me that the final game against Coventry will be an irrelevance from our point of view. I think the title and/or auto-promotion will probably still be in play on the last day of the season.

 

Am I unsual in much preferring 1st to 2nd? If losing to Coventry means Pompey go down but we miss out on the title and finish 2nd, that's not a price worth paying IMHO.

 

Incidentally, Pompey are about 1/2 to get relegated at the bookies.

[benjii]

"You also need to list the average for 3rd Place +1pt as that's what you need for 2nd place, so will probably be a couple of points less than the 87 average that 2nd place ends up with".

 

A very good point and a very interesting result.

 

The average for 3rd place is 81 points (median is 80).

 

Based on this average plus 1 point, a further 22 (7 wins 1 draw and 6 defeats) from the last 14 games would normally bring automatic promotion.

 

But as soeone once said: "It's a funny old game, Saints!"

 

No, no it isn't. It's a poor point based on misunderstanding.

 

If you get slightly more than what the team in third usually gets you will probably finish third. The premise that "third plus one = second" is correct if you take a freeze frame of historic results but the average for second place is the reasonable expectation of what the second placed team will get. We are not playing in a vacuum. By saying that you only need to just beat the third placed average you are assuming that no team this season will perform to the average second placed standard. You might think that's going to be the case but if you do then it undermines the entire thrust of the thread as you have a starting premise that this will be an exceptional season (and so averages will not be of much predictive value in any event).

 

Averages are expectations. Get something approximating the third placed average and you can expect to finish third.

 

I hope I have explained why it is not at all a good point in the context of this thread. I am correct. Fact. Question of logic.

[Doctoroncall]

Thread calling CB Fry, CB Fry come in please!

 

;-)

[sussexsaint]

I appreciate I will recieve a sh*t storm of abuse but I have a feeling that Wham will not finish in the top 2

[SaintBobby]

I appreciate I will recieve a sh*t storm of abuse but I have a feeling that Wham will not finish in the top 2

 

I think you may be right. They certainly shouldn't be treated as "nailed on".

 

The 4/1 odds on West Ham NOT being promoted is quite attractive, I'd say.

 

I'd put there promotion chances as pretty good, but not much higher than 60% or so.

[The9]

Can someone stick together a swift analysis of the difficulty of remaining fixtures for the top clubs down to Hull please ? Ta. I'm pretty sure our run in is one of the easier-looking ones now we've got Brum and W Ham (A) and Cardiff (H) out of the way.

 

Yeah we've got Leeds, M'bro, Palace and Hull away, and Reading at home, but we have got 14 matches left and they're the toughest looking ones. West Ham's next month looks pretty horrible.

[70's Mike]

all very complicated, we just need the same points as the team in 3rd with a better goal difference

[Thedelldays]

Can someone stick together a swift analysis of the difficulty of remaining fixtures for the top clubs down to Hull please ? Ta. I'm pretty sure our run in is one of the easier-looking ones now we've got Brum and W Ham (A) and Cardiff (H) out of the way.

 

Yeah we've got Leeds, M'bro, Palace and Hull away, and Reading at home, but we have got 14 matches left and they're the toughest looking ones. West Ham's next month looks pretty horrible.

 

At a glance. West ham have the harder run in.. Easily. While brum have the easier.

 

Another thing to note. Last day of the season. We have Coventry at home whilst many of the sides around us actually play each other

 

Then you have forest v Pompey !!!

[Window Cleaner]

At a glance. West ham have the harder run in.. Easily. While brum have the easier.

 

Another thing to note. Last day of the season. We have Coventry at home whilst many of the sides around us actually play each other

 

Then you have forest v Pompey !!!

 

Don't think Brum's run in is particulary easy and it's going to be further complicated by their Cup replay with Chelsea.

Still think that the top 2 places will be decided by the matches between the current Top 4 or 5 themselves.

We have just 1 crunch game... at home to Reading as well as trying to take something from Blackpool.

 

Birmingham ? well they have West Ham,Reading and Cardiff although they're at home each time, away to Leicester will be a toughy for them as well as well as the match at Brighton..If Birmingham beat Cardiff,Reading and West Ham that would do us a big favour because at the end of the day Brum still have 8 points to make up on us, if they take them from rivals,so much the better.

[alpine_saint]

This all makes fascinating reading.

 

Me, I am trying to take each match as it goes, but recognising that apart from Reading our home run-in looks fairly light. Away from home, we have 3 toughies - Blakcpool, Hull and Boro.

 

Teams which worry me most are Birmingham, Reading and WHU.

[fanimal]

Birmingham will suffer from playing too many games, as are/will Cardiff; Beware Hull and Reading I would say. West ham will get promoted purely as they have the squad to cope, as I hope we have/will!

[DrunkenSaint]

Oh dear cause of our away form i tried that predictor league and had us to finish 4th If we beat Leeds away i'll change my predictions.

[70's Mike]

Oh dear cause of our away form i tried that predictor league and had us to finish 4th If we beat Leeds away i'll change my predictions.

 

do you have a link to predictor league

[JRM]

I also think our away form will let us down, especially at Hull, Blackpool, Leeds and Middlesbrough.

 

Birmingham's fixture back log will hopefully effect them, cup replay with chelsea and that can't be next week as round of international games so assume it is pushed a week later to when there is a round of championship games scheduled. Blues have already played 43 games this season, including 8 Europa League, 1 Carling Cup, 4 FA Cup (replay with Wolves) so the Chelsea replay will be their 14th cup game!! 60 game season for a squad of their size is a real challenge, even more so if they end up in the play offs.

[thegaffer]

They have 8 games in March and they havent won a midweek game since 2010!

I think 83-84 will be enough for top 2

 

87 and you are champions IMO

 

west ham have probably the toughest run-in

 

still to play

boro

leeds

blackpool

brum

reading

hull

cardiff

leicester

 

would be stunned if they got more than 17 points from that lot

[MOSaint]

I also think our away form will let us down, especially at Hull, Blackpool, Leeds and Middlesbrough.

 

Birmingham's fixture back log will hopefully effect them, cup replay with chelsea and that can't be next week as round of international games so assume it is pushed a week later to when there is a round of championship games scheduled. Blues have already played 43 games this season, including 8 Europa League, 1 Carling Cup, 4 FA Cup (replay with Wolves) so the Chelsea replay will be their 14th cup game!! 60 game season for a squad of their size is a real challenge, even more so if they end up in the play offs.

 

It's true we have some tough looking away fixtures however, we also have some away matches we should be looking at optimistically.

 

Watford

Palace

Millwall

P'Boro

 

None of these sides are good at home. Leeds have also been shaky at home recently and have the added handicap of playing in front of hostile fans.

[Window Cleaner]

I also think our away form will let us down, especially at Hull, Blackpool, Leeds and Middlesbrough.

 

Birmingham's fixture back log will hopefully effect them, cup replay with chelsea and that can't be next week as round of international games so assume it is pushed a week later to when there is a round of championship games scheduled. Blues have already played 43 games this season, including 8 Europa League, 1 Carling Cup, 4 FA Cup (replay with Wolves) so the Chelsea replay will be their 14th cup game!! 60 game season for a squad of their size is a real challenge, even more so if they end up in the play offs.

 

We need about a total of 2 points from those 4 matches according to my calculations.

[saintmatt]

Birmingham will suffer from playing too many games, as are/will Cardiff; Beware Hull and Reading I would say. West ham will get promoted purely as they have the squad to cope, as I hope we have/will!

 

I thought this when we built up a backlog of fixtures toward the tail end of last season..

[DrunkenSaint]

do you have a link to predictor league

Sure:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_1/predictor/default.stm

[CB Fry]

Thread calling CB Fry, CB Fry come in please!

 

;-)

 

Benji's got it covered....

 

*waiting for some div to post that you only need to get one point more than the average for third to finish second*

 

We have six home games left and 8 away. If we get to 85 points (ie. take a further 26) then the teams below us would have to achieve the following points per game average to get to 85:

 

West Ham - 1.75

Reading - 2.06

Cardiff - 2.29

Blackpool - 2.2

Birmingham - 2.125

Hull and Boro - 2.19

 

Of those, only West Ham currently equal or better the average required and all apart from Birmingham would also need a big GD swing in their favour to pip us.

 

So, I reckon 85 points would be enough for second and it could well be slightly lower. 26 from 14 is no mean feat, however we could get a significant chunk of those at home...

 

If we can get 15 points from our remaining 6 home games then 11 points from our 8 away should be enough for promotion. That's a minimum away record of 3-2-3, or 4-0-4 or 2-5-1 (or better). 11 from 8 is an average of 1.38. Our current away average is only 1.2, which is quite poor, although we have been reasonably unlucky away from home IMO. Had one of our losses been a win (Brighton, for instance) our average would be 1.4 away from home.

 

Obviously our season average includes the poor run in December/Jan.

 

So, if you are confident that we will win at least 4 or 5 of our home games and that our away form will be more like the first third of the season than the second it will take a hell of a run from someone else to keep us out of the top two.

 

Agree with this completely. 85 and I think we're home and dry for second.

 

And that post really shows the value of points in the bag.

 

We've had our amazing run already this season, and now we "only" need to maintain good form to hold off the competition. The competition need to start pulling together amazing runs and hope that we collapse.

[Jonnyboy]

So we need to win everything at home and draw all the aways...its gonna be a fun ride!

[Tamesaint]

I think you may be right. They certainly shouldn't be treated as "nailed on".

 

The 4/1 odds on West Ham NOT being promoted is quite attractive, I'd say.

 

I'd put there promotion chances as pretty good, but not much higher than 60% or so.

 

where can you get 4/1 on Wham not going up? A decent bet if you ask me

[Ashley Grute]

Reckon we need 7 wins and 4 draws- beat Ipswich, Donnie, Cov, Skates, Barnsley at home, win 2 away from Watford, Palace and millwall and pick up 4 draws from the rest and we will be home and dry!

[Avenue Saint]

Sure:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_1/predictor/default.stm

 

[Nick65]

No, no it isn't. It's a poor point based on misunderstanding.

 

If you get slightly more than what the team in third usually gets you will probably finish third. The premise that "third plus one = second" is correct if you take a freeze frame of historic results but the average for second place is the reasonable expectation of what the second placed team will get. We are not playing in a vacuum. By saying that you only need to just beat the third placed average you are assuming that no team this season will perform to the average second placed standard. You might think that's going to be the case but if you do then it undermines the entire thrust of the thread as you have a starting premise that this will be an exceptional season (and so averages will not be of much predictive value in any event).

 

Averages are expectations. Get something approximating the third placed average and you can expect to finish third.

 

I hope I have explained why it is not at all a good point in the context of this thread. I am correct. Fact. Question of logic.

 

A pedant writes :-

 

Disagree with this, or I don't think it's the full story anyway.

As you said, the average of what the 2nd place team has got in the past is a good indicator of what the 2nd place team will actually get. But that isn't the same as what they need.

I'd have thought it's more likely to be the halfway mark between the average 2nd place and average 3rd place, plus one.

 

Having said that, I think we need at least 86 points this season; can see at least 2 out of Wham, Brum, Blackpool and Reading pushing us all the way.

[Doctoroncall]

I thought this when we built up a backlog of fixtures toward the tail end of last season..

 

Difference is they are on course to play 61+ games this season what with their participation of the Europa Cup and the current FA cup run.

[benjii]

*waiting for some div to post that you only need to get one point more than the average for third to finish second*

 

We have six home games left and 8 away. If we get to 85 points (ie. take a further 26) then the teams below us would have to achieve the following points per game average to get to 85:

 

West Ham - 1.75

Reading - 2.06

Cardiff - 2.29

Blackpool - 2.2

Birmingham - 2.125

Hull and Boro - 2.19

 

Of those, only West Ham currently equal or better the average required and all apart from Birmingham would also need a big GD swing in their favour to pip us.

 

So, I reckon 85 points would be enough for second and it could well be slightly lower. 26 from 14 is no mean feat, however we could get a significant chunk of those at home...

 

If we can get 15 points from our remaining 6 home games then 11 points from our 8 away should be enough for promotion. That's a minimum away record of 3-2-3, or 4-0-4 or 2-5-1 (or better). 11 from 8 is an average of 1.38. Our current away average is only 1.2, which is quite poor, although we have been reasonably unlucky away from home IMO. Had one of our losses been a win (Brighton, for instance) our average would be 1.4 away from home.

 

Obviously our season average includes the poor run in December/Jan.

 

So, if you are confident that we will win at least 4 or 5 of our home games and that our away form will be more like the first third of the season than the second it will take a hell of a run from someone else to keep us out of the top two.

 

I have decided to update my excellent post, above.

 

As stated, I think 85 will guarantee promotion (I imagine 84 or 83 will actually be enough for second). Set out below is the points per game required by the contenders to get to 85 - in the left column - and also set out is their points per game average thus far - in the right column. With respect to each team, the higher of the two figures I have emboldened.

 

---------------PPG for 85------------Season PPG

 

West Ham ------1.71-------------------1.91

Reading ------2.00 ------------------1.78

Blackpool ------2.31 ------------------1.67

Birmingham -----2.21 ------------------1.69

Cardiff ----- 2.29-------------------1.66

Brighton ------2.46-------------------1.61

Middlesbrough --2.29-------------------1.66

Hull ------------2.27-------------------1.65

 

 

Super Saints ---1.77-------------------1.88

 

Now, I reckon the top 2 is a three horse race (WHU, Saints, Reading) with B'ham an outside shot if you think they will win their six pointers.

 

Will Saints get promoted? Well, unless our form slips and Reading's continues to improve, "yes, we will".

 

Will Saints win the league? If you think WHU have a harder run in then I'd say we're a very good bet. Just had a quick look on William Hill and we are 2/1 to win the league. I think that's a brilliant price. I would say each team's chances of winning the league are roughly: WHU 47%, Saints 45%, Reading 7%, Other 1%.

 

Oh yeah, we won't finish 17th.

[sperm_john]

just did the predictor;

 

1. saints top on 90 pts (rose tinted glasses perhaps, but put down a few shakey results like away to blackpool)

2. wham on 86

3. reading on 83

4. blackpool on 80

5. cardiff on 77

6. hull on 76

 

then

 

7. birmingham 75

8. leicester 75

9. brighton 75 ...all just missing out

 

bottom three;

 

22nd coventry 43

23rd portsmouth 35

24th doncaster 32

 

Also think forest will beat pompey at home final day of the season around the region of 3-0 to compound their misery and we will beat cov at st marys 3-0, you heard it here first ...lol

[SaintBobby]

where can you get 4/1 on Wham not going up? A decent bet if you ask me

 

Sorry...odds will have tightened, but it was 4/1 on betfair when I posted.

[Turkish]

I'd take our run in over all the other. With a lot of of the top 6 to play each other all will lose points, our tricky games are Leeds, Blackpool, Middlesborough away and Reading home. 8 wins should be enough. Looking at our run in and that of the others it really is outs to lose.

[Jimmy_D]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/ChampionshipLeague.html

[Brizzie Saints]

Just done it again

WHU 93

SAINTS 90

Reading 85

 

unfortuantely skates miss relegation by 2 points so might have to do it again

[Brizzie Saints]

I think the key strategy will be the same as last year, take each game as it comes, play as if its a cup game and just worry about ourselves. Although it would be great to win it , auto is our only priority

[ericofarabia]

 

Meanwhile take 10 pts off the Cheatsmuff total ......

[Berkeley Saint]

With our GD most teams (probably except Brum and WH) will have to get one more point than us to finish above us

[thorpie the sinner]

Are we guaranteed to finish above 17th yet?

[Thedelldays]

just a quick glance at our rivals fixtures and here are some stand outs for them...

 

west ham

Cardiff - away

Leeds - away

Leicester - away

Reading - home

Brighton - Home

Brum - home

hull - home

 

 

reading

West ham - away

brighton - away

saints - away

brum - away

leicester - home

blackpool - home

leeds - home

 

Brum

leicester - away

west ham - away

brighton - away

cardiff - home

reading - home

 

 

the most interesting fixture is brum v reading on the last day of the season

if reading go up in 2nd, they will sure have to do it the bloody hard way...going to all the teams around them

leicester will have a big say and they are just coming good...as are brighton

[krissyboy31]

Are we guaranteed to finish above 17th yet?

I guess not guaranteed but on stats from thae last 15 years 60 points gets you 13th or 14th on average.

[Noodles34]

I think you may be right. They certainly shouldn't be treated as "nailed on".

 

The 4/1 odds on West Ham NOT being promoted is quite attractive, I'd say.

 

I'd put there promotion chances as pretty good, but not much higher than 60% or so.

 

OMG, there are some right idiots on here who clearly know FA about football!