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Saints Web Definitely Not Official Second Referendum  

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  1. 1. Saints Web Definitely Not Official Second Referendum

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52% of Voters voted to leave even though were were expecting to lose £4300 each.....

 

we thought "yeah we can cope with that, the economy is not the most important bit"

 

That has not changed. If there is an initial hit, we were expecting it, if there is not an initial hit its a nice job well done.

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52% of Voters voted to leave even though were were expecting to lose £4300 each.....

 

we thought "yeah we can cope with that, the economy is not the most important bit"

 

That has not changed. If there is an initial hit, we were expecting it, if there is not an initial hit its a nice job well done.

So you're saying those voters all believed everything George Osborne says and are now happily waiting to be financially worse off?

 

Horses hit.

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No one knew what would happen did they. They took the risk.

 

All polling shows They'll do it again. The vote was not based on the economy.

I thought everyone knew what they were voting for? Awfully confusing.

 

I'd suggest most people vote for active optimistic reasons rather than vote in spite of negative reasons.

 

ie people thought they were voting to gain back £350m a week which they thought was a lot of extra money for the NHS, plus for wonderful global trade deals the Germans were stopping us getting and also to stop foreigners turning up and taking our jobs. And they were told not to believe the lies from project fear, which is not the same as being told that it definitely will happen but not being bothered about it.

 

Weird really because all of those reasons have at least a flavour of an "economic reason" suggesting the vote was based on the economy, certainly for enough people to swing it in such a close contest.

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More project fear from the US Embassy.

Pity the American Embassy diplomats didn't read the opening post of this thread, referencing the Heritage Foundation paper of 2014, here.

 

It begins:

The most common argument against a British exit from the EU is that it would be bad for Britain’s economy and, in particular, would damage its ability to negotiate trading arrangements with the rest of the world—a responsibility currently exercised by the EU on behalf of all of its member states.

This concern is unfounded. There is every reason to believe that Britain, the world’s sixth-largest economy, would be able to negotiate trade agreements independently. If Britain does decide to leave the EU, one of its central priorities should be to negotiate a free trade area (FTA) with the United States, a goal that the U.S. should also champion. An FTA would be good for the economies of both nations. It would demonstrate their commitment to promoting economic freedom and be a further manifestation of their close and enduring relationship. It would also be an opportunity for both nations to negotiate a modern free trade area based on sovereignty and freedom, which would establish a standard that should be applied to other trade negotiations.

 

Lucky for the US that their founding fathers weren't as lily-livered as these diplomats are, back in 1776.

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Pity the American Embassy diplomats didn't read the opening post of this thread, referencing the Heritage Foundation paper of 2014

 

Ever considered that the Embassy briefing focussed on real events and politics happening now as opposed to a right wing think tank's 2014 guess as to what might happen in the future?

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who knows what US trade policy is at the present time??? The idea of a free trading area of the strongest economies would be an interesting place to be involved with. Of course the EU have a large proportion of such economies

Edited by OldNick
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52% of Voters voted to leave even though were were expecting to lose £4300 each.....

 

we thought "yeah we can cope with that, the economy is not the most important bit"

 

That has not changed. If there is an initial hit, we were expecting it, if there is not an initial hit its a nice job well done.

 

I’m always weary of claiming why people voted, but I don’t think this is right. I think people didn’t believe Osborne’s predications or didn’t think it applied to them. If you’ve got nothing you’ve got nothing to lose. The people who work for me earn about 16K, I doubt they believe any Government would let them see their salary drop to £11,700. Of course the actual figure is based on slower growth in future years, but that got lost in all the project fear overkill.

 

From my point of view, nothing’s more depressing than putting a price on independence or sovereignty. I felt the same about the SNP’s independence campaign. You either believe Scotland should be independent or you don’t, saying I do provided it doesn’t cost me money, is hardly Braveheart stuff. In actual fact there’s something quite heartening in people voting for principled, rather than monetary reasons. If Donald Trump agreed to pay every UK household 5k a year for 20 years provided The UK became a state of The US, I’m sure the Remoaners would turn that down, even though they’d be making themselves 100k poorer. Some things are more important than money. If you’re making independence & sovereignty decisions based on how it effects your finances, then ultimately everything has a price.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Edited by Lord Duckhunter
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Well it's the working classes who are the main demographic for voting for Brexit.

 

Hence why support for Conservatives in the C2DE demos is at a high point.

 

When talk of losing £4300, then C2DE who don't have £4300 can't see how they can possibly lose it. But can see the benefits of freedom of policy choice.

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From my point of view, nothing’s more depressing than putting a price on independence or sovereignty. I felt the same about the SNP’s independence campaign. You either believe Scotland should be independent or you don’t, saying I do provided it doesn’t cost me money, is hardly Braveheart stuff. In actual fact there’s something quite heartening in people voting for principled, rather than monetary reasons. If Donald Trump agreed to pay every UK household 5k a year for 20 years provided The UK became a state of The US, I’m sure the Remoaners would turn that down, even though they’d be making themselves 100k poorer. Some things are more important than money. If you’re making independence & sovereignty decisions based on how it effects your finances, then ultimately everything has a price.

 

Thats the Brexit case I respect. There is no credible economic case for leaving but there is one for sovereignty and independence. However in practice and reality, in a globalised world, the room for independent movement by nation states is actually far more limited than most would imagine. And if most voters had realised / believed the economic costs of leaving there wouldn't have been a majority.

Edited by buctootim
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Sovereignty in a globalised world where there are massive imbalances of power between political and economic actors :lol:

 

It seems as if Brexiteers care less about de facto sovereignty i.e. actual power than their princess di tea-sets and the symbols of sovereignty.

 

And let’s be clear being poorer reduces your de facto sovereignty. The two are fundamentally connected.

 

The brexiteers are in for a rude awakening of how the real world works.

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I’m always weary of claiming why people voted, but I don’t think this is right. I think people didn’t believe Osborne’s predications or didn’t think it applied to them. If you’ve got nothing you’ve got nothing to lose. The people who work for me earn about 16K, I doubt they believe any Government would let them see their salary drop to £11,700. Of course the actual figure is based on slower growth in future years, but that got lost in all the project fear overkill.

 

From my point of view, nothing’s more depressing than putting a price on independence or sovereignty. I felt the same about the SNP’s independence campaign. You either believe Scotland should be independent or you don’t, saying I do provided it doesn’t cost me money, is hardly Braveheart stuff. In actual fact there’s something quite heartening in people voting for principled, rather than monetary reasons. If Donald Trump agreed to pay every UK household 5k a year for 20 years provided The UK became a state of The US, I’m sure the Remoaners would turn that down, even though they’d be making themselves 100k poorer. Some things are more important than money. If you’re making independence & sovereignty decisions based on how it effects your finances, then ultimately everything has a price.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Is 16k a good wage these days? I don't know how people can live a decent life on that income, after taking out living costs rent/mortgage etc. it must be very hard to cope. Obviously if it is a kid straight from school that's a different argument but around £300PW is not a lot. Therefore is Trump offered them 20K a year to become another US state I suggest they would take that in less than a heartbeat.

Personally I believe that we are heading for the rocks, and very quickly. IMO people are not spending, and to a degree not even browsing.

My friends in many trades are telling me so,(not building trades)

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Is 16k a good wage these days? I don't know how people can live a decent life on that income, after taking out living costs rent/mortgage etc. it must be very hard to cope.

 

Its not far off minimum wage, but an awful lot of people are on those wages unfortunately

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Its not far off minimum wage, but an awful lot of people are on those wages unfortunately

 

I’m picturing his workplace as somewhere in the 70s untouched by any ‘political correctness’. Calendars with ti its, everyone smoking and asking the chicks to make a cup of tea love. Lots of caretaker coats too.

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I’m picturing his workplace as somewhere in the 70s untouched by any ‘political correctness’. Calendars with ti its, everyone smoking and asking the chicks to make a cup of tea love. Lots of caretaker coats too.

 

latest?cb=20100124153449

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Is 16k a good wage these days? I don't know how people can live a decent life on that income, after taking out living costs rent/mortgage etc. it must be very hard to cope.

 

The ones with families have it topped up with benefits or the other half works full time, bringing in an equal amount. The single ones tend to be nippers or immigrants. The ones that voted and have discussed it,are pretty much all Leavers.

 

Whelks parody is unfortunately wide of the mark as more than half of them are chicks. No titty pics I'm afraid.

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The ones with families have it topped up with benefits or the other half works full time, bringing in an equal amount. The single ones tend to be nippers or immigrants. The ones that voted and have discussed it,are pretty much all Leavers.

 

Whelks parody is unfortunately wide of the mark as more than half of them are chicks. No titty pics I'm afraid.

 

So our taxes are subsidising your cheap labour with benefits to end up in your pocket? #socialismfortherich

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So our taxes are subsidising your cheap labour with benefits to end up in your pocket? #socialismfortherich

 

Exactly. Although it’s not my pocket, it’s the shareholders who benefit. I’m just an employee who manages other employees.

 

I’ve posted many times that the 3 things that suppress the poorest wages are

1. Immigration

2. Working families tax credits

3. Minimum wage.

 

Immigration speaks for itself, it increases supply. Tax credits just subsidise employers and the minimum wage has become a benchmark rather than a floor. There’s absolutely no incentive to increase wages, and the minimum wage suppresses wage competition.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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Exactly. Although it’s not my pocket, it’s the shareholders who benefit. I’m just an employee who manages other employees.

 

I’ve posted many times that the 3 things that suppress the poorest wages are

1. Immigration

2. Working families tax credits

3. Minimum wage.

 

Immigration speaks for itself, it increases supply. Tax credits just subsidise employers and the minimum wage has become a benchmark rather than a floor. There’s absolutely no incentive to increase wages, and the minimum wage suppresses wage competition.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

Immigration boosts demand as well as supply, so it doesn’t necessarily follow that it suppresses wages (as the data shows). Hard to have a conversation when even the basics are misunderstood. It’s called the lump of labour fallacy.

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Immigration boosts demand as well as supply, so it doesn’t necessarily follow that it suppresses wages (as the data shows). Hard to have a conversation when even the basics are misunderstood. It’s called the lump of labour fallacy.

 

To be fair, he never claimed that immigration suppresses wages, merely stated that it increases supply.

 

He said that tax credits and the minimum wage suppress wage competition....

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The chickens are coming home to roost, the writing is on the wall and the canary is dead (don't say I didn't warn you). Read this excellent Telegraph article and prepare for the upcoming economic cluster£ukk, to be lead by the Italians and followed closely by the Germans.

 

Trade wars are good and easy to win, claimed Donald Trump in a tweet before firing the opening shots of the conflict. Judging by the performance of the China Shanghai Composite Index, I suppose that thus far he might be deemed to be already winning. It’s down more than 20pc since its peak in late January, a degree of loss which by convention puts China in official bear market territory. There are many factors behind this selloff, but trade wars are certainly part of it. All the conditions are there for the mother of all corrections. Generally speaking, however, bear markets need something to set them off – an event or trigger to turn sentiment violently on its head. It’s not clear that even a full on trade war would be such an event, economically damaging though it is certain to be. So where might such a shock come from?

Despite the relative economic stability which has returned to the eurozone since Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, made his famous “whatever it takes” remark, the single currency must remain high on anyone’s list of potential candidates. The euro remains an exceptionally high risk construct. Apparently impervious to meaningful reform, it wouldn’t take much to once more set it off balance. At the end of May, the German Bundesbank’s claims on the system stood at a gob-smacking €956bn (£840bn). It seems virtually certain that they have since risen through the €1 trillion mark – equal to around a third of German GDP – a number which when officially published will raise what had previously been a “swept under the carpet” technical irritant of interest only to monetary anoraks like me into a raging political clusterfunk.

There will be all hell to pay once German voters wake up to the growing size of their potential loss. It’s true, that Target 2 imbalances only become relevant when there is a risk of a country “redenominating” and leaving the single currency area. This is because the liabilities of the leaving country would represent a financial loss to the the national central banks of the remaining Euro area countries. The immediate risk of such a departure comes from Italy, where a populist, eurosceptic coalition government recently assumed power. At around €450bn, Italy has by far the largest Target 2 liabilities. Both Coalition parties – Lega and 5SM – have toned down their anti euro rhetoric, and insist they now want to stay in the single currency. This is pure sophistry; the fiscal expansionism of their domestic agenda throws down a deliberate challenge to the rules that underpin the currency, calling into question Italy’s continued participation.

 

It's like bobbing up and down in a lifeboat, watching the EU rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic, while Draghi's band keeps playing.

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The chickens are coming home to roost, the writing is on the wall and the canary is dead (don't say I didn't warn you). Read this excellent Telegraph article and prepare for the upcoming economic cluster£ukk, to be lead by the Italians and followed closely by the Germans.

 

 

 

It's like bobbing up and down in a lifeboat, watching the EU rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic, while Draghi's band keeps playing.

 

Do explain how the Eurozones bond buying programme is bigger per capita or worse than the BoE's £445billion QE.

Edited by buctootim
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Do explain how the Eurozones bond buying programme is bigger per capita or worse than the BoE's £445billion QE.

Size isn't everything, as your wife keeps saying.

 

If you had read and understood the article, you may have realised that the Germans, via the ECB, have been buying amongst other gilts, Italian bonds. The Italian bondholders has been quickly turning this money into less risky investments, i.e. not Italian bonds. It is in the article you didn't read, but chose to engage me, because you are lazy. I won't make the same mistake again. Here is the extract from the article:

 

Many of the sellers in these asset purchases are foreign owners of Italian bonds, but instead of reinvesting the cash back in higher risk Italian assets, which is how QE is supposed to work, they have again deposited it in the supposed safety of Northern Europe, further bolstering the Bundesbank’s Target 2 claims.

 

(PS, the BoE has been investing in UK gilts and is unlikely to pull out of sterling)

 

(PPS, You are back on ignore for wasting my time. Please feel free to engage with Mr. Smart money instead, who is bound to tell you what you want to hear, i.e. I am an ignorant scumbag, the Euro is a good thing and bet against sterling, pal. Thank God I put that arsewipe on ignore as well, or I'd be losing money on bitcoins :lol:)

Edited by Guided Missile
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Size isn't everything, as your wife keeps saying.

 

If you had read and understood the article, you may have realised that the Germans, via the ECB, have been buying amongst other gilts, Italian bonds. The Italian bondholders has been quickly turning this money into less risky investments, i.e. not Italian bonds. It is in the article you didn't read, but chose to engage me, because you are lazy. I won't make the same mistake again. Here is the extract from the article:

 

 

 

(PS, the BoE has been investing in UK gilts and is unlikely to pull out of sterling)

 

(PPS, You are back on ignore for wasting my time. Please feel free to engage with Mr. Smart money instead, who is bound to tell you what you want to hear, i.e. I am an ignorant scumbag, the Euro is a good thing and bet against sterling, pal. Thank God I put that arsewipe on ignore as well, or I'd be losing money on bitcoins :lol:)

 

So your argument is that its worse for Britain if Germany is on the hook for hundreds of billions than if Britain is.

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To be fair, he never claimed that immigration suppresses wages, merely stated that it increases supply.

 

He said that tax credits and the minimum wage suppress wage competition....

 

Read again.

Edited by shurlock
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Read this for the way forward on Brexit. The Telegraph is on a roll and is waking up to the facts outlined in my OP.

 

Germany risks an economic war on three fronts at once. The combined shocks would endanger the post-War miracle, and expose the underlying fragility of an ageing nation with 20th Century industries. Donald Trump’s 20pc tariff on European cars is likely to come into force this autumn, shutting up to half a million German vehicles out of the US market. This could happen just as Italy’s Lega-Five Star insurgents force a budget showdown with the EU, threatening to set off a chain of events that ultimately leads to euro rupture and a Lex Monetae default on vast German credits. Both sagas may well intrude before the final Brexit summit in October. A "no deal" breakdown would then start to have an existential feel for Germany. Its car industry sells 770,000 vehicles a year to the UK, more than to the US and China combined. Britain is their profit cash-cow.

 

...and...

 

Amid the barrage of demands on Mrs May over recent days, we have a gem from the German Federation of Industry (BDI): “The United Kingdom is Hurtling Towards a Disorderly Brexit”. Britain “has to accept” – note the imperial tone – the customs union, the single market, and EU law under the sway of the European Court. There is no glimmer or recognition that both the Tories and Labour fought the last election on manifestos rejecting such outcomes, and that violating this is a capital crime. It sums up the German view. They want full access to Britain’s market for goods where they have a €50bn (£44bn) surplus, while refusing reciprocal access to services on the normal basis of "mutual recognition". They demand that Britain remains in the full regulatory and legal structure of the EU just to secure this dog’s dinner. They are going along with moves to exclude Britain from the Galileo satellite project on the grounds that the UK is a security risk. Yet they want British troops to continue defending the EU’s eastern border. “The British government is still playing for time. This strategy will lead to disaster,” states the BDI. This leaves one speechless. It is of course Brussels that is playing the time game. It is withholding assent on a flexible solution to the Irish border in order to force Britain into its legal orbit, aiming to eviscerate Brexit. For good measure, the BDI adds that the UK is “currently the country with the weakest GDP growth in the entire EU”. This falsehood is an article of faith in European circles. To read the German press is to think Britain in the grip of recession. You would not know that Britain has the lowest unemployment rate in 43 years. The UK grew by 1.8pc last year, the same as France. Japan grew by 1.7pc, and Italy by 1.5pc (IMF data). This is better than it looks since the Chancellor imposed more net fiscal austerity over the last two years than any other G7 state. He has reduced the cyclically-adjusted budget deficit by 1pc of GDP (IMF Fiscal Monitor). The eurozone has been neutral, and the US has loosened massively.

 

It is an urban legend that Brexit has sent Britain crashing to the bottom of the global growth league. What is true is that is investment is falling. That is a worry, but for the future. The high-decibel warnings by European businesses – the German BDI, Airbus, BMW, Siemens – are coordinated and are intended to scare Britain into "compliance" at the Brussels summit this week. On the EU side the push is coming from the European Commission’s taskforce on Article 50, controlled by Martin Selmayr. On the British side it is being fanned by a nexus of Remain interests with an eye on the Chequers battle over the Brexit white paper in early July. Lost in the emotion this week over the car industry is the inescapable fact that it is in structural decline already. The electric vehicles of the 2020s will have far fewer moving parts and are expected to last over 300,000 miles. Driverless ride-on-demand fleets imply a drastic fall in car ownership. The British car lobby SMMT says the UK car nexus employs 186,000 jobs in manufacturing. Sadly, they are going to lose half those jobs, Brexit or no Brexit. Britain’s constitutional settlement cannot be determined by the particular vested interests of one industry in any case. Nor does final assembly with low UK content – 15pc for Nissan, 25pc for Honda – add as much economic value as headline figures suggest.

 

Not a penny of the £39bn exit fee should be paid unless the EU acts in a civilized fashion over Euratom, landing rights, visas, and a long list of house-keeping issues. We should be the judge of that, they the demandeur. It is a fair bet that Britain would enjoy a surge in global investment and economic dynamism once the dust had settled. The UK would no longer be a pitiful supplicant, begging for mercy at one excruciating summit after another. The venture would be marvellously daring. Can it be any worse that what is now coming straight at us?

 

It looks like their exit from the World cup is the least of Germany's problems.

 

Note: Lex monetae is a Latin phrase which means that a sovereign state chooses which currency it will use and that the meaning of units of above-mentioned currency is determined by the law of the country whose money is in question. The concept has been identified as a potential problem if the Eurozone breaks up or a member state decides to leave it, since debts in euros may turn into debts owed in another currency. Conversion would be at a rate determined by the nation in question, and no party to a contract or transaction will have the right to default on it. No coincidence that the phrase is in Latin so the Italians understand it....

Edited by Guided Missile
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Hard to take any article seriously that gets the growth figures wrong :lol:

 

Can you point me to where the UK grew by 1.8% in 2017?

 

I think you're being unfair to Jihadi John. Apart from getting all his figures wrong and quoting at length from a swivel-eyed rant in a cult-leading rag owned by tax-dodging exiles, he has a point.

 

Which appears to be that achieving the Jihadist wet dream crashing out of the EU with no deal...requires a deal (with aviation and Euratom, etc, etc).

 

I'm sure that's what he meant.

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Official numbers from the ONS show 1.8% last year.

 

Or do you contest the ONS?

 

You cant argue with die hard remainers Nolan, save your energy and just use the ignore function. A lot of them are sadly just sheep who do what they're told, don't question, and spend their lives campaigning for their invisible lords and masters with whatever fake news is available. Then they ignore or make the debate a mockery when facts that contradict the fake news are presented.

 

All as standard.

 

They are the wet dream of the left, a sea of people unable to think for themselves and who blindly follow what they're told.

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Official numbers from the ONS show 1.8% last year.

 

Or do you contest the ONS?

Is that the same ONS that independently produces its statistics according the following standards?

 

The international statistical manuals provide the broad framework and principles for classifying units and the transactions they engage in. These include:

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You cant argue with die hard remainers Nolan, save your energy and just use the ignore function. A lot of them are sadly just sheep who do what they're told, don't question, and spend their lives campaigning for their invisible lords and masters with whatever fake news is available. Then they ignore or make the debate a mockery when facts that contradict the fake news are presented.

 

All as standard.

 

They are the wet dream of the left, a sea of people unable to think for themselves and who blindly follow what they're told.

 

Why are you wading into someone else's mess? Last time you did so, I recall you confusing the imperial japanese flag for the Chinese flag. That didn't end too well, did it pal :lol:

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