Mole Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 Latest prices from SkyBet: Charlton 1/14 Norwich 4/5 Southampton 11/10 Blackpool 2/1 Barnsley 3/1 Plymouth 3/1 Notts Forest 7/2 Watford 8/1 Doncaster 12/1 Sheff Wed 33/1 Coventry 40/1 Derby 66/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRobbie Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 Likely? I'd say certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALWAYS_SFC Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 Likely? I'd say certain. If we go on another losing run then i fear you may well be right but I am hoping we can just call the Brum defeat a blip and win again on Tuesday and Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deano6 Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 errr...FYI 11/10 means less than 50% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legod Third Coming Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 The prices relate almost directly to league position. In essence it's like they priced up the Grand National after the last fence in the order the horses are running. What is doesn't take account of is how much gas is in the tank, whether one animal might break a leg, whether a jockey will lose his whip, etc... Our main problem is that we have gained nothing on our rivals when we've won, because so have they. We threw away winnable games earlier in the season and have now left ourselves a mountain to climb. Six points this week are essential, and even then we could still be third bottom and adrift of our rivals. What we need is the PLAYERS to believe that destiny is in their hands and to do something with it! They seemed to before yesterday, let's hope they do again this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mole Posted 8 March, 2009 Author Share Posted 8 March, 2009 Likely? I'd say certain. No, that's not right. We have 4 games coming up that are all winable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALWAYS_SFC Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 Injuries to key players for us and our rivals could be key... Let`s hope we don`t have to rely on dross like Smith too often.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mole Posted 8 March, 2009 Author Share Posted 8 March, 2009 errr...FYI 11/10 means less than 50% chance. Good point, but we're still 3rd favs for the drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRobbie Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 No, that's not right. We have 4 games coming up that are all winable. Correct. But then so do those around us. To be be honest, you're right. Its not certain I'm wrong. But, it is HIGHLY likely we will go down under Lowe/Wotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_clark Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 Great odds for Watford, I may have some of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mole Posted 8 March, 2009 Author Share Posted 8 March, 2009 16 Derby 35 -3 45 17 Plymouth 37 -11 43 18 Watford 35 -5 42 19 Blackpool 37 -13 42 20 Nottm Forest 37 -12 41 21 Barnsley 34 -12 39 ------------------------------ 22 Southampton 36 -16 37 23 Norwich 37 -11 36 24 Charlton 36 -23 27 Looking at the table and the fact Barnsley have 2 games in hand over us i'd discount 39 points being the realistic target to pull out of the drop zone. IMO we are 4 points adrift with an inferior goal difference in real terms. Not only do we need wins we need to make sure that when we lose we don't lose heavily. We can make up the goal difference and that could be vital. At present with the goal difference we have i see us as being 5 points adrift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gordonToo Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 Correct. But then so do those around us. To be be honest, you're right. Its not certain I'm wrong. But, it is HIGHLY likely we will go down under Lowe/Wotte. It's the old half empty/half full argument. If they play as they did against Preston, Cardiff and Ipswich AND if they steer clear of injuries, a middle table position is not out of the question. I think they will do it (just) but my main concern is that the transformation may have come a month too late when it was clear in December that JP couldn't adapt and had to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALWAYS_SFC Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 (edited) It's the old half empty/half full argument. If they play as they did against Preston, Cardiff and Ipswich AND if they steer clear of injuries, a middle table position is not out of the question. I think they will do it (just) but my main concern is that the transformation may have come a month too late when it was clear in December that JP couldn't adapt and had to go. It was well,well before that when he should have gone,completely out of his depth from virtually the start of the season... Let`s just pray it is not to late... Edited 8 March, 2009 by ALWAYS_SFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legod Third Coming Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 16 Derby 35 -3 45 17 Plymouth 37 -11 43 18 Watford 35 -5 42 19 Blackpool 37 -13 42 20 Nottm Forest 37 -12 41 21 Barnsley 34 -12 39 ------------------------------ 22 Southampton 36 -16 37 23 Norwich 37 -11 36 24 Charlton 36 -23 27 Looking at the table and the fact Barnsley have 2 games in hand over us i'd discount 39 points being the realistic target to pull out of the drop zone. IMO we are 4 points adrift with an inferior goal difference in real terms. Not only do we need wins we need to make sure that when we lose we don't lose heavily. We can make up the goal difference and that could be vital. At present with the goal difference we have i see us as being 5 points adrift. If we win our game in hand (which we can't until April) we are 1 point behind Forest and still have to play them, which makes that game the one that puts the destiny back in our hands... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mole Posted 8 March, 2009 Author Share Posted 8 March, 2009 If we win our game in hand (which we can't until April) we are 1 point behind Forest and still have to play them, which makes that game the one that puts the destiny back in our hands... There's gonna be a massive scramble for tickets for that one. A mate at works who supports Forrest reckons they give 4500 tickets to away fans. I hope so but they're still going to be hard to get i reckon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy_Porter Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 If they give us 4,500 then it'll be a piece of **** to get tickets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
del boy Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Wayman Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 The Derby match will be the decider, no doubt about that. If we win and win well, we may be in wit a shout, if we draw or lose it'll mean we are on the slide again and this time there isn't time to recover. A defeat on Tuesday will likely leave us adrift of 21st place by six points as Barnsley have two games in hand on us so their position amy be false. With 9 games to go and only 4 at home we just could not recover. Tuesday is everything, the Saints know this adn of course we all know what happens when saints are in a MUST WIN game.... they don't win, ever.. period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 16 Derby 35 -3 45 17 Plymouth 37 -11 43 18 Watford 35 -5 42 19 Blackpool 37 -13 42 20 Nottm Forest 37 -12 41 21 Barnsley 34 -12 39 ------------------------------ 22 Southampton 36 -16 37 23 Norwich 37 -11 36 24 Charlton 36 -23 27 Looking at the table and the fact Barnsley have 2 games in hand over us i'd discount 39 points being the realistic target to pull out of the drop zone. IMO we are 4 points adrift with an inferior goal difference in real terms. Not only do we need wins we need to make sure that when we lose we don't lose heavily. We can make up the goal difference and that could be vital. At present with the goal difference we have i see us as being 5 points adrift. as we would have to win to catch up the points the difference in goal difference isn't much, if we win a couple to catch the points up -whilst likes of Blackpool lose (to enable us to catch those points) we will probably have a better goal difference as well. Think I know what I mean! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 just as well wotte has had a great start then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldNick Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 the next 2 games will see our fate IMO. Less than 4 points and if the others match or better and we are in dire striaghts.We are still better placed than we were 3 or 4 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beatlesaint Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 the next 2 games will see our fate IMO. Less than 4 points and if the others match or better and we are in dire striaghts.We are still better placed than we were 3 or 4 weeks ago. totally agree with that....anything less than 4 points means big big doggy doos !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastleighSoulBoy Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 My heart says we still have a chance. My head tells me that the table doesn't lie. Sure, we'll win a few more games this season considering the new vigour in the team and Mark Wotte. Sadly we are almost bound to lose some, let's hope not against fellow strugglers. They will be the telling ones. Altogether, again head over heart, too little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Judge_B Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 Likely? I'd say certain. If I saw odds of 11/10 about something that I though was certain, I'd be selling stuff off to get enough money on it... We were around 4/7 for relegation before Cardiff at home, and I'm sure on Betfair before the Brum game we were around 4/5 so I'm surprised to see that we are odds against after losing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr X Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 Put it this way how many are going to be placing a bet on us staying up? not many I would say. Loose the next two and we are as good as down sadly it would be too much of a mountain to climb. Hope the team prooves me wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr X Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 Also I dont get why it says despite our good form, three wins in a row isn't good form when you put it into perspective of the whole season. we have lost far too many of the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjii Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 Also I dont get why it says despite our good form, three wins in a row isn't good form when you put it into perspective of the whole season. we have lost far too many of the rest. Yes, but isn't that precisely what "form" means when used in a sporting context? 3 wins out of 3 is pretty much perfect "form" over three matches and is play-off form over 5 matches. Admittely it's utterly insignificant over 1,000,000,000 games though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastleighSoulBoy Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 Yes, but isn't that precisely what "form" means when used in a sporting context? 3 wins out of 3 is pretty much perfect "form" over three matches and is play-off form over 5 matches. Admittely it's utterly insignificant over 1,000,000,000 games though. It feels like we've played that many this season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr X Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 Yes, but isn't that precisely what "form" means when used in a sporting context? 3 wins out of 3 is pretty much perfect "form" over three matches and is play-off form over 5 matches. Admittely it's utterly insignificant over 1,000,000,000 games though. You make a good point, I dont get the use of that ridiculous figure in the debate though as a season is fourty odd games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cabrone Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 The 3 wins have given me heart but if I had to put money on it I'd back us to go down. Just as it was in the prem, Lowes madness has left us with too much to do I fear (but I live in hope). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
70's Mike Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 As others have said the next 2 games are very important but my biggest concern is that a few injuries will f*ck us up big time, because the balance of the team is right now and any changes will mean bring in guys who frankly are not up to it. i fear that the experiment for the first 25 games will come back to haunt us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wightman35 Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 The 3 wins have given me heart but if I had to put money on it I'd back us to go down. Just as it was in the prem, Lowes madness has left us with too much to do I fear (but I live in hope). You are right. I share your hopes, but it is, as the saying goes; "the triumph of hope over experience.":confused: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scudamore Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 Latest prices from SkyBet: Charlton 1/14 Norwich 4/5 Southampton 11/10 Blackpool 2/1 Barnsley 3/1 Plymouth 3/1 Notts Forest 7/2 Watford 8/1 Doncaster 12/1 Sheff Wed 33/1 Coventry 40/1 Derby 66/1 I note you've avoided the BBC predictor thread http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?t=10913&page=2 Did it not tell you what you wanted to hear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saint lard Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 I fear the small upturn in our recent form is just too little,too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SB Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 bunch of drama queens… win - lose -draw, Saints will still be in with a good shout at staying up, lots of points to play for. Who for one second thought after a few wins in a row, it would be a breeze? It will go too the wire AGAIN, but hopefully we will survive, a win Tuesday would be nice, but will it mean we’re safe? No, It just means I can have a few beers and a good nights sleep, until Saturday (Y) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilsburydoughboy Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 Nine points out of a possible twelve. That is the best form we have had all season.A small knock back yesterday , beat Derby and QPR and we are right in there. Come on show some fighting spirit.I ****ing hate what has happened at our club in recent times but i still love the team and will be there to watch the lads win.Then i will tell Lowe and Wilde exactly what i think of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Micky Posted 8 March, 2009 Share Posted 8 March, 2009 To many people are disconsolate that other struggling team have picked up points during our good run. Every argument has a counter and I would suggest that those other teams will be just as disappointed that they have failed to cast us off with Charlton. The others will see that we are fighting and the pressure will be on them as well - it's up to us now - it's in our hands and entirely doable, just a shame that we couldn't pack SMS out for the final couple of games - that would surley have helped the lads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
solentstars Posted 9 March, 2009 Share Posted 9 March, 2009 To many people are disconsolate that other struggling team have picked up points during our good run. Every argument has a counter and I would suggest that those other teams will be just as disappointed that they have failed to cast us off with Charlton. The others will see that we are fighting and the pressure will be on them as well - it's up to us now - it's in our hands and entirely doable, just a shame that we couldn't pack SMS out for the final couple of games - that would surley have helped the lads. i agree we got a 50/50 chance now and if we can keep up the form the team are showing,we should be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank's cousin Posted 9 March, 2009 Share Posted 9 March, 2009 Think realistically,if we can win 3 out of the next 5, I think we will be out the relegation zone and possibly have our destiny back in our own hands - think thats all we can ask at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slickmick Posted 9 March, 2009 Share Posted 9 March, 2009 To many people are disconsolate that other struggling team have picked up points during our good run. Every argument has a counter and I would suggest that those other teams will be just as disappointed that they have failed to cast us off with Charlton. The others will see that we are fighting and the pressure will be on them as well - it's up to us now - it's in our hands and entirely doable, just a shame that we couldn't pack SMS out for the final couple of games - that would surley have helped the lads. Lets hope the pressure will affect one or two of the other teams above us. 3 games ago it looked like Plymouth were heading for the drop, but they look like surviving. I think Forest are the most vulnerable with such a young side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyFartPants Posted 9 March, 2009 Share Posted 9 March, 2009 Blackpool got a result on SAaturday but I think that was a blip and they will continue losing again now. I honestly see it as finishing above them and the two teams below us for survival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MongoNeil Posted 9 March, 2009 Share Posted 9 March, 2009 errr...FYI 11/10 means less than 50% chance. You sure about that...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victor Posted 9 March, 2009 Share Posted 9 March, 2009 I fear the small upturn in our recent form is just too little,too late. A. We don't yet know if it's a 'small' upturn - it actually be the turning point. B. It's not too late - we have ten games to go; win our game in hand and we only need a draw or two better than 3 or 4 teams above us and we are safe. C. Any of the teams above us could have a dip in form - what makes you think that their recent good results means they are on a strong run but our good results are a false dawn? Let's hope that the team are up for a bit of positive thinking, even if you're not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wopper Posted 9 March, 2009 Share Posted 9 March, 2009 No chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikec Posted 9 March, 2009 Share Posted 9 March, 2009 You sure about that...? To turn odds into probability you add 1 and then invert it. So 11/10 is a probability of 10/21 - or 47.6% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victor Posted 9 March, 2009 Share Posted 9 March, 2009 To turn odds into probability you add 1 and then invert it. So 11/10 is a probability of 10/21 - or 47.6% But haven't you added 11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyFartPants Posted 9 March, 2009 Share Posted 9 March, 2009 To turn odds into probability you add 1 and then invert it. So 11/10 is a probability of 10/21 - or 47.6% Didn't you add 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfc6mufc3 Posted 9 March, 2009 Share Posted 9 March, 2009 [/b] It was well,well before that when he should have gone,completely out of his depth from virtually the start of the season... Let`s just pray it is not to late... Correct. For me 4-1 losses to QPR and Coventry set of alram bells in my head - it's just a pity people who could do something about it didn't realise it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legod Third Coming Posted 9 March, 2009 Share Posted 9 March, 2009 Even Money equals a 1 in 2 chance - or 50%. The odds of a coin falling heads are even money (1 in 2) - 50%, Evens. So 11/10 is slightly better odds than even money. Does that help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikec Posted 9 March, 2009 Share Posted 9 March, 2009 Didn't you add 10? I added 10/10 (ie 1). 11/10 + 10/10 = 21/10. The probability is therefore 10/21. Here endeth the maths lesson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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