Champions League - Can we do it?

Not answering all of your post, but just to say if read tone of how I spoke about your comments they are clearly not critical or antagonistic... If anything complimentary.

 

Reason not answering all your post is so I'm not tempted into any boring tit for tat squabbles that ruin too many threads, often same few people .

 

There are two or three people who seek to troll others with false claims. If you take offense at reference above I'm sorry...I can't edit but was passing comment to make point. I was pretty sure you made comments about Everton last season when we were doing well and people talked about breaking into top 7, doesn't make much difference but if you say you didn't so be it.

 

Not going to ruin thread correcting what we all know is wind up.

 

At least makes change, for years of being happy clapper I'm now told I am negative! Lol

 

Enjoy your weekend of football

It's not a "false claim" to say that you said that 9 points from 10 games was "the level required" for 5th/6th. You wrote it.

The only "false claims" we get is the constant protests you never said things that are quoted directly back at you.

But this false claiming from you has been going on for a long time now. Worth pointing out though when you try and blame others.

Question:

You are offered a dice, and told that if you roll a 5 or a 6, Saints qualify for the CL, anything less and we miss out.

Do you take the offer?

FWIW I personally would in a heartbeat but the bookies don't think you ought to, and that the chances of us finishing in the top four are significantly higher!

Find it hard to be rational and objective when predicting our finish.

 

There is still something that stops me picturing us finishing 3rd or 4th....just seems too much like we are dreaming (Turkish, who tends to be one of more level headed posters with where we are etc, was saying last season we are light years away from Everton, i would think they would be doing well if they were 3rd at this stage, so how do people see us?).

 

We are now over half a season gone, so would be foolish to discount the possibility of finishing where we are...if we were in bottom

three I am sure people would say that a lot of season gone so good chance will stay there.

 

Bookies generally seem to have us finishing 5th, in a big market like this they are probably fairly objective. Still would be amazing climb, league 1, championship, 14th (?), 8th, 5th and European football.

 

Still seems bit to good to be true.

 

The time we were going to be found out was over festive period, mid winter, playing every couple of days, squad stretched, injuries, suspensions and hard fixtures..... However we were top of the paddy power festive table with arsenal, Everton, palace wins and Chelsea draw.

 

We have rarely seemed lucky gaining points when spurs and man u seemed to have performed badly and gained points with sending offs, penalties, late deflected goals etc...all count but we seem pretty consistent.

 

Who has played better? Maybe just two teams.

 

Team with best defensive record nearly always finishes in top 4.

 

Teams chasing us..west ham, Liverpool, spurs still to come to St Marys.

 

Rather than fading we are 2nd to Man C in current form.

 

We are, with goal difference, 4 points ahead of 5th...who play man city.

We are 8 ahead of 8th and playing better.

 

Can we finish 3rd....yes fair chance.

Will we ridiculously feel slightly disappointed with 5th/6th? Probably!

 

Can I picture us keeping on winning and staying top 4? No, just as it doesn't seem right.

 

I can't see us being as 8th, or high as 2nd...so will be great season, trying to enjoy battle for 3rd without feeling disappointed if we drop to 6th!

 

Finally, back to bookies, good chance of 3rd/4th but most likely 5th/6th.

We will get 3rd and chase city all the way for second before dropping out of the top 4. People underestimate just how strong Koeman's team is, to beat us you need to basically score 2 goals or stop us scoring, neither of which is easy. The only team which has smashed us is city, and we were clearly not ready for that game mentally as we threw it away.

We lost to liverpool (and should have won) in the teams first competitive fixture... already a good sign. And there was a lot on that match after the summer.

Tottenham away was a close game, and again, there was a lot on that match for which we were clearly not mentally ready to handle.

As with man united, as with city as with burnley and villa, the team did not yet have the belief and confidence. This has changed after Christmas... this lot know now that if they want to shut down chelsea,or arsenal or man city, that they can... imagine the belief and confidence that must give them... Top 4 is ours. I predicted 3rd a while back and can't see us dropping a significant points... GREAT days to be a saints fan and it is time to believe.

South coast rising!!!

Updated after the weekend...

Looking at the next fixtures for arse and man u, this makes beating Swansea at home pretty important. Then again we'll be saying this every week I feel!

Looking at the next fixtures for arse and man u, this makes beating Swansea at home pretty important. Then again we'll be saying this every week I feel!

Yeah, I don't think there's a great deal of room for slip up! Not with the level of teams we're competing with. I mean you could say that Arsenal haven't been good this year, and Sprus have been flakey, yet they're only just behind us - so they will be there or thereabouts all the way and if they keep their form as it is, then we have to keep winning! Exciting though, beats worrying about what Wigan are going to do or what result WBA are getting.

Two points a game over the season is CL form, we are achieving that so far, continue that form and we will be there. Why not!

Great article St Garrett, I enjoyed reading that.

Personally I see the biggest threat between now & the end of the season coming from the likes of Palace, West Brom, Sunderland and Stoke as well as the bottom 3. With the top clubs losing to each other with little consistency then those results could be key. I see clubs such as Villa, Swansea, Newcastle and West Ham going on slumps so they could be the more stable 3 point bankers.

It's going to be an interesting end to an interesting season, bring it on. COYS!

Champions League - Can we do it? - to which the answer has to be Yes we can. But that doesn't mean that we will. But in terms of our prospects for doing it, they do look good. We still have some hard games and we are missing some key players but we're fortunate that there is a small breathing space of one cup game and one league game over the next two weeks so that when the busier period starts in Feb we may be getting some of those players back and could have quite a strong squad for the March/April run-in. The only certainty is that we will have at least 42 points (assuming no points deduction crops up) but if currently we are marginally below 2 points per game and if that continues we should get another 30 points from the remaining 16 games. Whether a points total in the low 70s is enough for Champions League qualification then depends on how well our various opponents for a top 4 place do.

Still a LONG way to go but our remaining fixtures don't seem too bad having played Mancs and Arse twice and Liverpool, Spuds, West Ham and Swansea away already:

Swansea H

QPR A

West Ham H

Liverpool H

West Brom A

Crystal Palace H

Chelsea A

Burnley H

Everton A

Hull H

Stoke A

Tottenham H

Sunderland A

Leicester A

Aston Villa H

Man City A

unlikely to get Champions league place IMO, but really good chance of Europa league

Can we achieve CL place, yes of course we can, will we, who knows. One thing is for certain anyone who says no we cant (Mr R Savage) is wrong. The pressure will mount however I believe that in Koeman we have the best manager outside of Chelsea and City to deal with the pressure, we have fans who do not have a sense of entitlement, our players are not overpaid pre-Madonna’s, and our team is as good as or better than the teams below us, for these reasons I am very hopeful we will be playing CL football next season.

Still a LONG way to go but our remaining fixtures don't seem too bad having played Mancs and Arse twice and Liverpool, Spuds, West Ham and Swansea away already:

 

Swansea H

QPR A

West Ham H

Liverpool H

West Brom A

Crystal Palace H

Chelsea A

Burnley H

Everton A

Hull H

Stoke A

Tottenham H

Sunderland A

Leicester A

Aston Villa H

Man City A

Funny how things have changed from the days that we fought against relegation most years. You would look at a fixture list like that and hope that you might with luck pick up points against the likes of Crystal Palace, Burnley, Leicester, QPR, Sunderland, with less expectation of those which were away and that the others were more difficult or highly improbable to gain points from.

Now I look at a list like that and think that we might be lucky to get points from Chelski and City, but no reason why we can't beat all the others. It's a strange feeling.

If you go against last years fixtures against comparative opposition (QPR swapped with Cardiff for arguments' sake) In our next five games we achieved 10 points last season

Swansea H (2-0 W)

QPR (Cardiff) A (3-0 W)

West Ham H (from memory a draw)

Liverpool H (2/3-0 defeat)

WBA A (1-0 W)

If we can pick up 10 points this season but getting something off of Liverpool at home is paramount. Win all at home and a draw at QPR would be a good return IMO as WBA will be Pulisified by then.

Great article St Garrett, I enjoyed reading that.

 

Personally I see the biggest threat between now & the end of the season coming from the likes of Palace, West Brom, Sunderland and Stoke as well as the bottom 3. With the top clubs losing to each other with little consistency then those results could be key. I see clubs such as Villa, Swansea, Newcastle and West Ham going on slumps so they could be the more stable 3 point bankers.

 

It's going to be an interesting end to an interesting season, bring it on. COYS!

Can't take too much credit, the majority of the narrative was taken from an article which was produced a few days after I created the thread!

Updated after the weekends results. Everyone else seems to be picking up and being more consistent recently. Got a chance to pick up a few points on people next week though, with Man Utd playing West Ham, Liverpool playing Everton, and Spurs playing Arsenal.

It's not over yet...

Updated after the weekends results. Everyone else seems to be picking up and being more consistent recently. Got a chance to pick up a few points on people next week though, with Man Utd playing West Ham, Liverpool playing Everton, and Spurs playing Arsenal.

 

It's not over yet...

Next weekend could be interesting. Could find ourselves with a bit of a cushion again potentially. You've also got the added Europa games starting shortly, so Spurs and Liverpool will feel that a bit I'm sure.

We are too predictable in our play to garner the required points between now and the end of the season to make the Champions League places. We will be lucky to finish in the top 6 unless Koeman changes our playing style to make us more incisive in the final 3rd.

No. we really wont.

however, europa league would be a disappointment now if we missed out

Don't be like that Bats, we might.

Don't be like that Bats, we might.

Katy Perry might sit on my face at the weekend....you never know

Katy Perry might sit on my face at the weekend....you never know

That's the attitude.

No. we really wont.

however, europa league would be a disappointment now if we missed out

Given that we're still 4th in February you'd have to say we have a chance, it's not really in the ''no chance, we really won't'' territory just yet.

Given that we're still 4th in February you'd have to say we have a chance, it's not really in the ''no chance, we really won't'' territory just yet.

I do not think we will

Just do not think we have the fire power now the others (arsenal, spurs and liverpool) have hit a bit of a grove

the double home games against west ham and liverpool are huge

4th from bottom and some would have us as dead certs for relegation.

I do not think we will

Just do not think we have the fire power now the others (arsenal, spurs and liverpool) have hit a bit of a grove

 

the double home games against west ham and liverpool are huge

Yeah it's fair to think that, it's for sure an outside chance - but there's a very real chance it could happen, given the amount of games left and where we are. Those 2 games are exciting. Really looking forward to them.

Yeah it's fair to think that, it's for sure an outside chance - but there's a very real chance it could happen, given the amount of games left and where we are. Those 2 games are exciting. Really looking forward to them.

Just thank god we have those 3 big players back (just hope they avoid injury/red card on sat)

they are huge players who would easily play in a traditional top 4 side. no problem

Just thank god we have those 3 big players back (just hope they avoid injury/red card on sat)

they are huge players who would easily play in a traditional top 4 side. no problem

Agreed. They probably will next year if we don't make it, to be honest. All 3 are CL quality players, easy. I think we've got a really good squad actually, despite what some say in terms of not having enough. Real CL quality through the spine and talent such as Mane and Elia who are full of life. Although you'd say we are short up top, i think we have options and alternatives should Pelle not be available. I think securing a number 10 type is more important. Lets get Elia/Mane/Tadic involved in the right areas.

The likes of Arsenal, Man Utd ect will start to crank up the pressure now and I think they will be better mentally at handling it than us.

I think the most worrying thing is that we've played to our maximum potential for the most part this season, whereas the teams around us haven't, yet are only a few points behind. I'd like to think we can get to the Europa. Let's not forget that 4th place could land us with a tricky CL qualifier anyway. Plus as mentioned, teams like Arsenal know what it takes now for the rest of the season. Just have a feeling we will lose another 5 or 6 games.

If we're gonna get Champions League, this is the season to do it. Other teams look sloppy and we've had a bit of luck on the way, with players back from injury and the new signing today, I think it's possible without doubt.

However, you just have to look at last weekend. Another couple of these 'missed oppurtunities' and we'll find ourselves 6th or 7th.

Champions League. Can we do it?

January transfer window....

No.

Next year?

Hopefully.

Before the Swansea game; I thought a good win would give us a breathing space in third place. It was, after all - a " should win " game, which ended up as a must win, but we lost .

Now that Arsenal have( most) of their squad fit again.....(I don't count Jack Wilshere).... they are looking stronger, and Man U have started winning games - without looking very special, either.

If you told me (Koeman-type words)... .that we wouldn't have any more serious injuries to key players, and that we would regain our early season form, then I might say ......maybe.

.....right now, I'd say that a Europa League place would be considered a big success. In either eventuality, we'll need a much stronger squad next season - if we do qualify.

Still a LONG way to go but our remaining fixtures don't seem too bad having played Mancs and Arse twice and Liverpool, Spuds, West Ham and Swansea away already:

 

Swansea H

QPR A

West Ham H

Liverpool H

West Brom A

Crystal Palace H

Chelsea A

Burnley H

Everton A

Hull H

Stoke A

Tottenham H

Sunderland A

Leicester A

Aston Villa H

Man City A[/quote)

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REPLY; from david in sweden

 

on paper..... the Chelsea and Man.City away games would yield ZERO points. Everton, Stoke and Sunderland (aways)...should give at least one point -a -game,

 

otherwise .....I would really like to break our unhappy record v. Spuds..... and take all three points SMS, but the remainder of the games ...IMO ....are winnable.

Second week of February, and we're 3rd.

Third! With

West Ham H

Liverpool H

West Brom A

Crystal Palace H

Chelsea A

Burnley H

Everton A

Hull H

Stoke A

Tottenham H

Sunderland A

Leicester A

Aston Villa H

Man City A

to go. 42 points to win/lose.

So proud of this team. Come on, let's do this!

Again updated after the weekend - it's so unbelievably close!! Could be 5 points between 3rd and 8th after the midweek games if West Ham beat us. Every tiny mistake matters!

Jose Fonte is up for it.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/southampton-defender-jose-fonte-fires-5133810#ICID=sharebar_twitter

2-1 against according to the odds I saw. Bookies think Arsenal and Man U will be 3rd/4th. Saints odds seem about right. We have a good chance of making a CL spot, but more likely to finish 5th or 6th. Either way it has been a cracking season. If we are going to make it we need to win our home games. Can't afford another slip up like Swansea.

We need 9 points from our next 4 games looking at our rivals fixtures imo

Hopefully European matches starting again will take their toll on the others too

Someone posted a stat on here that we'd only gone into two fixtures this season outside the top 4 (or something similar) anyone know where that was?

Someone posted a stat on here that we'd only gone into two fixtures this season outside the top 4 (or something similar) anyone know where that was?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–15_Southampton_F.C._season

Incredible isn't it

Someone posted a stat on here that we'd only gone into two fixtures this season outside the top 4 (or something similar) anyone know where that was?

I'd find that hard to believe given we started the season with a loss and then a draw. And then I think we dipped out of it a little while ago too. Two sounds far fetched.

We need 9 points from our next 4 games looking at our rivals fixtures imo

Yes, essentially we needed 6 points from every 3 games prior to the Swansea game (assuming 72 will get 4th. So really we need to beat West Ham, then win 2 from the next 3, and repeat as necessary. Easy.

Discussing this in the pub before the game on Saturday and the general feeling was one of denial.

None of us thought at the start of the season that we would get relegated, but also none of us thought we would be even close to challenging for a top 6 let alone top 4. Now we are in that position I don't really want to admit that there is a good possibility that we might make it and the consensus was that we would be happy with a top 8. I'm sure that this is a sub conscious thing to offset the disappointment if we don't make it into the champions league.

Anybody else feel this way?

Posted this on the Still thread so thought I'd chuck it on here, rough science based on the season so far.

Just wanted to update the stats for the current standings of the top 7 based on performance to date this season and try and give a semblance of who based on previous form (as of today) is forecast to end where, for the purposes of this I am rounding down the forecast number. to 1 decimal place (although i used the actual number to calculate the forecast totals eg us and man u being different). I know there are "play each other factors" etc but I wanted to see what the average point return has been thus far, create a forecast and then look at what they would need if all things being equal we met our forecasted total.

 

Chelsea - currently averaging 2.3pts a game - Forecast total - 88pts

 

Man City - currently averaging 2pts a game - Forecast total - 77pts

 

Saints - currently averaging 1.8pts a game - Forecast total 71pts

 

Man U - currently averaging 1.8pts a game - Forecast total 69pts - They would need another 27pts to equal our forecast at 1.9 a game average which is 0.1 improvement on current form.

 

Spurs - currently averaging 1.7pts a game - Forecast total 68pts - They need another 28pts to equal our forecast at 2pts a game average which is a 0.3pts improvement on their season.

 

Arsenal - currently averaging 1.7pts a game - Forecast total 66pts - They need another 29pts to equal our forecast at 2.1pts a game average which is a 0.4pts improvement on their season.

 

Liverpool - currently averaging 1.6pts a game - Forecast total 61pts - They need another 32 points to equal our forecast at 2.2pts a game average which is a 0.6pts improvement on their season.

 

I think the Europa league and Champs league will see an impact on Liverpool and Arsenal, I expect Spurs to begin to drop points as their fixtures both in europe and league is very very tough plus they have had so many last minute winners to sneak 3pts its unbelievable mainly due to Eriksen and Kane whose form must drop off eventually for a few games.

 

West Ham and Liverpool games massive, if we come out of these games well then I think Europe is definitely on as we take advantage of more rest and recovery than the others.

As someone said, the home games against West Ham, Liverpool and spurs are huge.

We also play chelsea away, which will be odd-on for a defeat.

But we have to get at least 6 points from those 3 home games. they are huge.

Thankfully, we have a little break before the liverpool game, where I hope they get injuries and red cards at the weekend

Discussing this in the pub before the game on Saturday and the general feeling was one of denial.

 

None of us thought at the start of the season that we would get relegated, but also none of us thought we would be even close to challenging for a top 6 let alone top 4. Now we are in that position I don't really want to admit that there is a good possibility that we might make it and the consensus was that we would be happy with a top 8. I'm sure that this is a sub conscious thing to offset the disappointment if we don't make it into the champions league.

 

Anybody else feel this way?

To be able to say I'd be disappointed not to get top 6 after all my moaning in the summer is strange to say the least

If we beat West Ham and Liverpool, that will in some senses put their charges to bed with Liverpool at least 9 points behind us, and West Ham. That will ensure us (minus some major collapse) 6th place and European football, assuming someone in top 5 wins the cups. Next week is so huge.