EU referendum

[buctootim]

Won't the much vaunted TTIP agreement ensure that the US gets what it wants with regard to Europe?

 

Hard to know if that will ever get signed, and if it does what will be dropped along the way.

[aintforever]

Not really. The EU aren't going to let us walk away and then carry on as normal. If they tell us free movement of people is the price of the free movement of trade and goods do you think our lords and masters will say no and risk the likes of Toyota and Nissan moving their plants to countries in the EU and inward investment drying up?

 

In the Daily Mail world it may seem like being out is the answer to everything. It's clearly not going to be.

 

 

Don't think it will be the answer to everything, just a price worth paying to stop uncontrolled immigration.

[Sour Mash]

the EU has steadfastly refused to negotiate with Bern, insisting that free movement is part of a package deal also granting Switzerland preferential access to the single market,

So if we're not part of the single market, we won't have to sign up to free movement of people as Switzerland have?

[CB Fry]

Big difference is the UK's economy is the 5th largest in the world.

And the EU, even without us will still be five times bigger. And contains 3 of the top ten, all three of which won't be falling over themselves to give a standalone UK a better deal than they're getting.

[buctootim]

So if we're not part of the single market, we won't have to sign up to free movement of people as Switzerland have?

 

access to

[aintforever]

And the EU, even without us will still be five times bigger. And contains 3 of the top ten, all three of which won't be falling over themselves to give a standalone UK a better deal than they're getting.

 

We may be a bit worse off, we may be better off, we won't know unless we leave.

 

To be honest I made up my mind after watching my wife go through agonising pain waiting ages for a qualified doctor in an overstretched hospital full of Polish and Romanians - in Southampton. My best mate is a builder who is having to compete with Polish guys willing to work for peanuts and a friend of mine had to wait for 2 hours for an ambulance whilst in agony because they were too busy. The housing crisis is a simple supply and demand problem, where is next year's extra 300,000 going to live? And the 300,000 or more that will turn up in 2017?

[View From The Top]

So if we're not part of the single market, we won't have to sign up to free movement of people as Switzerland have?

 

If we want access to their market then that will be on their terms. There is no way that Germany and France will accept, nor should they, terms for us that are better than theirs.

[Sour Mash]

If we want access to their market then that will be on their terms. There is no way that Germany and France will accept, nor should they, terms for us that are better than theirs.

 

Why do we need different access to their market then we do for anywhere else in the world?

[CB Fry]

Why do we need different access to their market then we do for anywhere else in the world?

Because it's the biggest and our biggest market, and on our doorstep. Maybe that's why.

[Sour Mash]

Because it's the biggest and our biggest market, and on our doorstep. Maybe that's why.

 

So what do you think would happen to our exports and economy in general if we were to leave the EU?

[View From The Top]

Why do we need different access to their market then we do for anywhere else in the world?

 

Because they can dictate the terms of trade for any country outside of the EU trading with the EU. Why do you think there was so much brouhaha about trans-Atlantic trade agreements or EU-Sino trade agreements? Access to markets.

[Sour Mash]

Because they can dictate the terms of trade for any country outside of the EU trading with the EU. Why do you think there was so much brouhaha about trans-Atlantic trade agreements or EU-Sino trade agreements? Access to markets.

 

That doesn't explain how it's different to us trading with any other nation.

[View From The Top]

That doesn't explain how it's different to us trading with any other nation.

 

We won't be trading with nations, we'll be trading with a bloc.

[Sour Mash]

We won't be trading with nations, we'll be trading with a bloc.

 

But how is that any different to trading with the USA, China or India in practice?

 

What, in practice, do you think will happen to the UK economy if we were to leave the EU?

[CB Fry]

So what do you think would happen to our exports and economy in general if we were to leave the EU?

At absolute best, no short term change. But over time we will remain tied to all EU trading regulations/standards etc but with no say whatsoever in how they are devised. Either way in a short time we'd be weaker in Europe than now, and lots of small businesses could struggle, and larger businesses could reassess where they should be.

 

You want to believe the Alex Salmond-style argument where we leave the EU and lose all the bad stuff but keep all of the good stuff but I don't.

[View From The Top]

But how is that any different to trading with the USA, China or India in practice?

 

We trade as the EU Bloc, not unilaterally.

 

What, in practice, do you think will happen to the UK economy if we were to leave the EU?

 

That is the million dollar question which we can all hypothesis over but none will truly know unless it happens. I just hope that if we do leave that I'm, and so very many economists, are wrong and the UK doesn't become worse off.

[Sour Mash]

At absolute best, no short term change. But over time we will remain tied to all EU trading regulations/standards etc but with no say whatsoever in how they are devised. Either way in a short time we'd be weaker in Europe than now, and lots of small businesses could struggle, and larger businesses could reassess where they should be.

 

You want to believe the Alex Salmond-style argument where we leave the EU and lose all the bad stuff but keep all of the good stuff but I don't.

I haven't said we'd "keep all the good stuff". We may well lose some business and trade with the EU countries. But I don't believe there would be significant changes. I believe we'll continue to be a successful, prosperous nation. Trade with EU nations won't stop.

[Sour Mash]

We trade as the EU Bloc, not unilaterally.

 

 

 

That is the million dollar question which we can all hypothesis over but none will truly know unless it happens. I just hope that if we do leave that I'm, and so very many economists, are wrong and the UK doesn't become worse off.

But in practice it's the same as trading with any other very large nations.

 

I guess that's what it boils down to though, some believe we're dependent on political union with Europe for a successful economy, others don't.

[View From The Top]

But in practice it's the same as trading with any other very large nations.

 

No, it's not.

 

I guess that's what it boils down to though, some believe we're dependent on political union with Europe for a successful economy, others don't.

 

True. I would suggest that 99% of us want an economic union as per the original idea and not the political union that exists at the moment.

[Patrick Bateman]

True. I would suggest that 99% of us want an economic union as per the original idea and not the political union that exists at the moment.

 

Very fair comment.

[Sour Mash]

No, it's not.

 

Why not?

[Sour Mash]

 

 

True. I would suggest that 99% of us want an economic union as per the original idea and not the political union that exists at the moment.

True? You've stated a different point to the one I've made. Do you think a successful UK economy is dependent on UK political union with the EU?

[cambsaint]

One of the few things I agree with Nigel Farage about is that the German car manufacturers will never allow any rules that make their cars unfavourable.#

The UK is a huge market for them, and other German consumer goods-Bosch etc.

So we will get a good trade agreement.

I read that our diplomats have given up on any hopes of being able to stop free movement of labour, mainly because the smaller new Eastern European nations will veto any such agreement.

If I find it intolerable that the rules on who can enter the UK are effectively governed by Poland, Hungary etc, and I am reasonably liberal on this subject, then I am sure that a large majority of the electorate will agree.

I am fairly certain that the result of the referendum will be decided by immigration in the end, and I expect us to leave unless the virtual certainty of a NO vote changes the views of Europe on this subject.

[Whitey Grandad]

Big difference is the UK's economy is the 5th largest in the world.

 

5th largest at the moment but we are in the EU at the moment.

 

Anyone who thinks it's easy to export to countries outside the EU ought to give it a try first.

[solentstars]

At absolute best, no short term change. But over time we will remain tied to all EU trading regulations/standards etc but with no say whatsoever in how they are devised. Either way in a short time we'd be weaker in Europe than now, and lots of small businesses could struggle, and larger businesses could reassess where they should be.

 

You want to believe the Alex Salmond-style argument where we leave the EU and lose all the bad stuff but keep all of the good stuff but I don't.

I agree cb

I think he struggles to take it in,I have voted in the last referendum in the 70s when we were a poor country outside the ec.we had tariffs on lots of goods from 10% upwards ,we could not compete when we joined we had massive investment and now are one of the richest EU countries and I,m not interested in throwing away a good lifestyle on a make believe fantasy's or dogma based on a whim.so I know what is was like last time we were outside.

Edited 13 October, 2015 by solentstars

[solentstars]

Won't the much vaunted TTIP agreement ensure that the US gets what it wants with regard to Europe?

Now that is scarey,it would have big business making the laws instead of government s,hopefully it will be changed big time if it ever came about.

[Johnny Bognor]

I agree cb

I think he struggles to take it in,I have voted in the last referendum in the 70s when we were a poor country outside the ec.we had tariffs on lots of goods from 10% upwards ,we could not compete when we joined we had massive investment and now are one of the richest EU countries and I,m not interested in throwing away a good lifestyle on a make believe fantasy's or dogma based on a whim.so I know what is was like last time we were outside.

 

I think this had less to do with being or not being in Europe.

 

Decades of a lack of investment by the owners of large companies, and the restrictive practices imposed by the unions, meant that British products were outdated and extremely expensive when compared to foreign goods.

British Leyland were turning out French quality cars at German prices, whilst the Japs were turning out German quality cars at French prices. British Leyland simply couldn't compete and was doomed to fail. No one would invest in the UK when simply the mention of a strike could bring the government down. We were a basket case and this was some years after joining the EEC. The unions had too much power and were more interested in playing politics. It is only when union power waned, that our fortunes turned around. Being a member of the EEC alone would not have achieved it.

[Whitey Grandad]

I think this had less to do with being or not being in Europe.

 

Decades of a lack of investment by the owners of large companies, and the restrictive practices imposed by the unions, meant that British products were outdated and extremely expensive when compared to foreign goods.

British Leyland were turning out French quality cars at German prices, whilst the Japs were turning out German quality cars at French prices. British Leyland simply couldn't compete and was doomed to fail. No one would invest in the UK when simply the mention of a strike could bring the government down. We were a basket case and this was some years after joining the EEC. The unions had too much power and were more interested in playing politics. It is only when union power waned, that our fortunes turned around. Being a member of the EEC alone would not have achieved it.

 

All very true.

[melmacian_saint]

All very true.

 

But we have benefitted massively from lower input costs thanks to EU membership, which includes the common market and its freedoms.

And while we are at it, what do we think of Chinese companies importing cheaper-than-EU, unskilled labour to investment projects in the UK?

[melmacian_saint]

But we have benefitted massively from lower input costs thanks to EU membership, which includes the common market and its freedoms.

And while we are at it, what do we think of Chinese companies importing cheaper-than-EU, unskilled labour to investment projects in the UK?

 

In any case, the only way we can deal with this effectively is not by voting out, but by reforming within.

How to do this: we as a country have to effectively create a new, rival, european ideology, a project that can be built from the current EU, that rejects the path to disguised federalism (it really is just central republicanism), and finds a different route towards European convergence without unification.

For this, as someone who has Portuguese roots, I suggest someone gets the papers out from a very successful experience we once led: the EFTA. As things have evolved, I think something very interesting can be done there.

But as some have mentioned, we cannot be part of the EFTA as it is today. Less rules but no voice over them is suicide. It has to be something new that reforms the EEA, which for all the talk is the only solid, consensual piece of European integration in existence.

[buctootim]

In any case, the only way we can deal with this effectively is not by voting out, but by reforming within.

How to do this: we as a country have to effectively create a new, rival, european ideology, a project that can be built from the current EU, that rejects the path to disguised federalism (it really is just central republicanism), and finds a different route towards European convergence without unification.

For this, as someone who has Portuguese roots, I suggest someone gets the papers out from a very successful experience we once led: the EFTA. As things have evolved, I think something very interesting can be done there.

But as some have mentioned, we cannot be part of the EFTA as it is today. Less rules but no voice over them is suicide. It has to be something new that reforms the EEA, which for all the talk is the only solid, consensual piece of European integration in existence.

 

Its a nice idea but I don't think there would be much support for it elsewhere. Most countries are overall content with EU. They might chafe about a few things but wouldn't leave.

[CB Saint]

The Eu is unreformable - getting 28 member states with wildly differing national agendas to come to the kind of consensus that we would like is just not going to happen. Tis a fools errand that DC has embarked on

[solentstars]

I think this had less to do with being or not being in Europe.

 

Decades of a lack of investment by the owners of large companies, and the restrictive practices imposed by the unions, meant that British products were outdated and extremely expensive when compared to foreign goods.

British Leyland were turning out French quality cars at German prices, whilst the Japs were turning out German quality cars at French prices. British Leyland simply couldn't compete and was doomed to fail. No one would invest in the UK when simply the mention of a strike could bring the government down. We were a basket case and this was some years after joining the EEC. The unions had too much power and were more interested in playing politics. It is only when union power waned, that our fortunes turned around. Being a member of the EEC alone would not have achieved it.

alot of truth in that but when the tariffs went to keep out imports went ,we were forced to up our game or collapse and the inward investment and quality modernised al ot of outdated work practises and by the way the french were making good cars in the 1970s.

[solentstars]

But we have benefitted massively from lower input costs thanks to EU membership, which includes the common market and its freedoms.

And while we are at it, what do we think of Chinese companies importing cheaper-than-EU, unskilled labour to investment projects in the UK?

plus the paperwork and standards,at one time we had to have different paperwork and standards for different eu countries now we can export to all those eu countries with the same documentation,cutting costs and winning orders. anyway this referendum is a joke,we don,t even know what are conservative party wants from the eu,you think they would have discussed what they want from the eu and then put it to the country and then there is a issue with scotland and wales which could split the union if we left.

[Whitey Grandad]

alot of truth in that but when the tariffs went to keep out imports went ,we were forced to up our game or collapse and the inward investment and quality modernised al ot of outdated work practises and by the way the french were making good cars in the 1970s.

 

Indeed they were. It wasn't just the unions tat caused the downfall of British car manufacturers, the electrics were rubbish too. Joe Lucas alone Was responsible for a lot of the problems. It appears that I am not alone in this view: http://jalopnik.com/399791/joe-lucas-prince-of-darkness-british-electrical-system-jokes

[Unbelievable Jeff]

For me it depends on what deals to do with immigration we can get prior to the vote...DC needs to step up and see what he can get.

 

If nothing, out.

[Lord Duckhunter]

The people banging on about the uk pre the Union and the benefits that came with joining back in '73 miss one fundamental point , it was a vastly different community then . There were no basket cases like Greece. , No Spain , no Portugal , no Eastern European ex iron curtain countries . The economies of the members when we joined were pretty equalised . The free movement of people wasn't really an issue as the economies , standard of living and wages were pretty much the same . Our influence was also more because there were less countries to influence . It was actually Mrs T and the Tories biggest mistake that they pushed for expansion . They thought by expanding they would dilute the Franco German domination , but of course if you throw money at people they go native .

[buctootim]

The people banging on about the uk pre the Union and the benefits that came with joining back in '73 miss one fundamental point , it was a vastly different community then . There were no basket cases like Greece. , No Spain , no Portugal , no Eastern European ex iron curtain countries . The economies of the members when we joined were pretty equalised . The free movement of people wasn't really an issue as the economies , standard of living and wages were pretty much the same . Our influence was also more because there were less countries to influence . It was actually Mrs T and the Tories biggest mistake that they pushed for expansion . They thought by expanding they would dilute the Franco German domination , but of course if you throw money at people they go native .

 

Agree with all of that. Must be a first on the EU thread.

[buctootim]

I think this had less to do with being or not being in Europe.

 

Decades of a lack of investment by the owners of large companies, and the restrictive practices imposed by the unions, meant that British products were outdated and extremely expensive when compared to foreign goods.

 

A friend of mine used to run the bodyshop at Fords Dagenham in the 1980s. He got hauled in by Ford US senior management one day demanding to know why his line was less productive than Genk in Belgium. He gently reminded them that Genk was fully re-engineered three years previously and then pointed out of the office window to his presses stamped with date '1929'.

[melmacian_saint]

The people banging on about the uk pre the Union and the benefits that came with joining back in '73 miss one fundamental point , it was a vastly different community then . There were no basket cases like Greece. , No Spain , no Portugal , no Eastern European ex iron curtain countries . The economies of the members when we joined were pretty equalised . The free movement of people wasn't really an issue as the economies , standard of living and wages were pretty much the same . Our influence was also more because there were less countries to influence . It was actually Mrs T and the Tories biggest mistake that they pushed for expansion . They thought by expanding they would dilute the Franco German domination , but of course if you throw money at people they go native .

 

Portugal was one of the founding members of the UK-led EFTA and a traditional ally in the then OECE, so I think your comments are slightly mislead, as when it joined the EEC, the UK had a closer economic relationship with Portugal than most of the Inner Six, and I won't even mention diplomatic (the world's longest-standing as we speak). Foreign investment in Portugal, both mainland and colonies, was dominated by British firms. For example Clarks, the shoe company, had one of its main factories in the north. If anyone was really damaged by EU enlargement in 2004 it was Portugal, as it doomed our declining industries (many of which had their finest hour in the EFTA) and killed the expansion of our service sector, which was over-reliant on unskilled labour and hence collided head first with ex-Soviet sphere price competition.

 

The problem is not different levels of development, it is the fact that the route to European convergence seems to have taken the bulk way, especially since 2000 and the Euro. While the singularities of each country were addressed, things progressed steadily: though far from complete, Iberian development and convergence from the 60s to the 90s, with democratic transitions included, was a success.

Now that is reserved to those with the lowest price across the board, or the most important strategic value, and as we saw with Greece's accession (and behavior thereafter), that rarely ends up well.

Edited 13 October, 2015 by melmacian_saint

[Batman]

Juncker says that the EU needs GB but GB does not need the EU.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11931482/Britain-does-not-need-European-Union-says-Jean-Claude-Juncker.html

[toofarnorth]

In for me.

 

In my opinion the immigration objection is a non-starter. The immigration into this country is overwhelming positive and contributes way more to our economy than it takes out from our services. Rather than blame immigrants for strain on the NHS etc, I prefer to blame our politicians for years of sub par investment needed to keep pace. Employment in this country is at record high-levels and even now there is a huge shortage of labour in lots of sectors, both skilled and unskilled.

 

As other European economies start to recover in the coming years, we'll be crying out for all these extra workers people are currently so keen to bar from working in the UK.

 

And as someone else said earlier, I just like being part of the gang. I'm for Europe ideologically and because for me the facts make sense. As for it being undemocratic, we have an appallingly undemocratic system - less than a quarter of people registered to vote turned out for the conservatives. Millions of people voted for parties who only got a handful of seats. Doesn't seem very democratic to me. And I haven't even mentioned the house of lords!

[Sour Mash]

In for me.

 

In my opinion the immigration objection is a non-starter. The immigration into this country is overwhelming positive and contributes way more to our economy than it takes out from our services. Rather than blame immigrants for strain on the NHS etc, I prefer to blame our politicians for years of sub par investment needed to keep pace. Employment in this country is at record high-levels and even now there is a huge shortage of labour in lots of sectors, both skilled and unskilled.

 

As other European economies start to recover in the coming years, we'll be crying out for all these extra workers people are currently so keen to bar from working in the UK.

 

And as someone else said earlier, I just like being part of the gang. I'm for Europe ideologically and because for me the facts make sense. As for it being undemocratic, we have an appallingly undemocratic system - less than a quarter of people registered to vote turned out for the conservatives. Millions of people voted for parties who only got a handful of seats. Doesn't seem very democratic to me. And I haven't even mentioned the house of lords!

 

So you cannot envisage a time when half a million new arrivals, circa 350k net would be an issue for the UK?

 

And no-one is suggesting a permanent ban on any key workers, so I'm not sure where that's come from.

 

But at least you're honest enough to admit it's just about being 'one of the gang'.

[BlakeySFC]

In for me, would be economic suicide to pull out of Europe.

 

Think we should be pushing to be more of a part of the EU rather than pulling out, adding the Schengen area to Britain and opening the borders would be a great first step, think we need to do more to help the poor refugees fleeing from persecution and conflicts in the Middle East as well, and being a bigger part of the EU would mean Britain couldn't shirk its responsibility to house refugees any longer.

Edited 15 October, 2015 by BlakeySFC

[whelk]

Don't want my retirement plans affected. Like the thought of Provence, Tuscany or Corfu. Mind this is 20 years away so imagine we will be able to teleport by then

[Wes Tender]

In for me, would be economic suicide to pull out of Europe.

 

Think we should be pushing to be more of a part of the EU rather than pulling out, adding the Schengen area to Britain and opening the borders would be a great first step, think we need to do more to help the poor refugees fleeing from persecution and conflicts in the Middle East as well, and being a bigger part of the EU would mean Britain couldn't shirk its responsibility to house refugees any longer.

 

How many can you take into your household?

[Badger]

 

Think we should be pushing to be more of a part of the EU rather than pulling out, adding the Schengen area to Britain and opening the borders would be a great first step, think we need to do more to help the poor refugees fleeing from persecution and conflicts in the Middle East as well, and being a bigger part of the EU would mean Britain couldn't shirk its responsibility to house refugees any longer.

 

If I had any last remaining doubts , you've convinced me - OUT !!!

[Whitey Grandad]

In for me.

 

In my opinion the immigration objection is a non-starter. The immigration into this country is overwhelming positive and contributes way more to our economy than it takes out from our services. Rather than blame immigrants for strain on the NHS etc, I prefer to blame our politicians for years of sub par investment needed to keep pace. Employment in this country is at record high-levels and even now there is a huge shortage of labour in lots of sectors, both skilled and unskilled.

 

As other European economies start to recover in the coming years, we'll be crying out for all these extra workers people are currently so keen to bar from working in the UK.

 

And as someone else said earlier, I just like being part of the gang. I'm for Europe ideologically and because for me the facts make sense. As for it being undemocratic, we have an appallingly undemocratic system - less than a quarter of people registered to vote turned out for the conservatives. Millions of people voted for parties who only got a handful of seats. Doesn't seem very democratic to me. And I haven't even mentioned the house of lords!

 

'Overwhelmingly positive'? You just cannot be serious.

[solentstars]

Indeed they were. It wasn't just the unions tat caused the downfall of British car manufacturers, the electrics were rubbish too. Joe Lucas alone Was responsible for a lot of the problems. It appears that I am not alone in this view: http://jalopnik.com/399791/joe-lucas-prince-of-darkness-british-electrical-system-jokes

So very true and quality was ****e ,the root causes go back to the 1950s when unions and management were useless,fighting pre war battles,we were a basket case when we joined the EU and I personally saw the investment and robotics and modern management techniques from german and american management being put in place with productive and quality improvements .I was involved in the industry. people moan and we have never had it so good, so why would any sane person give up a great lifestyle on a gamble with no plan and hit us big time in the pocket I don't understand that negative mentality. The future belongs to the young I just hope us oldies don't. Screw it up for them.

[buctootim]

So very true and quality was ****e ,the root causes go back to the 1950s when unions and management were useless,fighting pre war battles.

 

 

I don't think you can underestimate how much the need to for Britain to pay off massive war debts affected levels of investment in new models and modernised production. There was also a feeling that we were owed something after six years of hardship and having won WW2. which of coursed the Germans and Japanese didn't have. The wealth of the Americans during the 1950s and 1960s was largely due to a lack of manufacturing competition and it took 50 years for that to fully unwind.