EU referendum

[whelk]

It is quite similar. I can't help if you find it confusing.

 

I can't envisage any situation where I would need help from you sweetheart.

[Whitey Grandad]

Do we or don't we stop people migrating here from other parts of the world? It's a simple enough question.

 

Some we do, some we don't. In several million cases we haven't.

[Sour Mash]

Some we do, some we don't. In several million cases we haven't.

 

And how many do we stop from the EU?

[Whitey Grandad]

And how many do we stop from the EU?

 

They have to have a job first before coming here, but that wasn't my point which was, if we haven't and can't or won't stop the non-EU people from coming here up to now, what makes you think that we will suddenly put up the shutters after leaving the EU? There's also the argument that most of those (EU) who wanted to come are already here and will not be repatriated after an exit are still going to be here. Plus, of course, if we wanted a trade deal with the EU we would have to sign up to the free movement of labour as well as goods.

[buctootim]

They have to have a job first before coming here, but that wasn't my point which was, if we haven't and can't or won't stop the non-EU people from coming here up to now, what makes you think that we will suddenly put up the shutters after leaving the EU? There's also the argument that most of those (EU) who wanted to come are already here and will not be repatriated after an exit are still going to be here. Plus, of course, if we wanted a trade deal with the EU we would have to sign up to the free movement of labour as well as goods.

 

Also now is likely the highwater mark of immigration from the EU - when the UK unemployment is relatively low and some major EU economies like Spain are weak. In the past, and probably in the future too, far more UK nationals have been going abroad to live and work than EU nationals coming here.

[Wes Tender]

Plus, of course, if we wanted a trade deal with the EU we would have to sign up to the free movement of labour as well as goods.

 

Would we? Why? Where we trade with other nations outside of the EU, do we have a legal obligation to allow free movement of labour from those countries? I had not heard about that. Please enlighten me.

[Sour Mash]

Would we? Why?

He's just making random stuff up for some reason.

[hutch]

He's just making random stuff up for some reason.

 

Whitey has said before that the success of his own business depends on continuing EU membership. I have some sympathy with that, but it doesn't make his opinions correct.

[Whitey Grandad]

Would we? Why? Where we trade with other nations outside of the EU, do we have a legal obligation to allow free movement of labour from those countries? I had not heard about that. Please enlighten me.

 

Norway had to when they negotiated their deal with the EU. The assumption (doesn't come from me) is that Britain would need to do the same. We wouldn't know until we tried, of course, but simply hoping for the best is not the basis for a reasoned decision, I would have thought.

[Whitey Grandad]

Whitey has said before that the success of his own business depends on continuing EU membership. I have some sympathy with that, but it doesn't make his opinions correct.

 

I'm too old and past it now, but any business that sells into the EU can only suffer. Or is anyone suggesting that it would be easier and less costly?

[solentstars]

No hes not making it up but you can ignore reality.I'm surprised you don't Google it .

 

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk

[Wade Garrett]

Also now is likely the highwater mark of immigration from the EU - when the UK unemployment is relatively low and some major EU economies like Spain are weak. In the past, and probably in the future too, far more UK nationals have been going abroad to live and work than EU nationals coming here.

 

That is absolute horsesh*t.

[buctootim]

That is absolute horsesh*t.

 

Any thoughts, facts or reasoning behind that or just a random tourettes thing?

[Lord Duckhunter]

More pony from the Little Europeans. When we sign TTIP agreement with The US does that give their citizens free movement into the EU. Do Australians or Canadians have free movement , do they trade with the EU without it? The simple fact of the matter is that Norway & Switzerland have done a deal with the EU that suits them . Just because their sovereign parliaments accept free movement does not mean that the 5th largest economy in the world has to accept the same terms . The British Parliament could allow free movement of Americans or Canadians into the UK and when we leave the EU our sovereign parliament could allow free movement of EU citizens . However , we will have the right to chuck the government out and it'll be a UK only decision .

 

What we won't have is the pathetic sight of a UK prime minister going round Poland , Hungrey and the like , begging them to allow us to tweak OUR benefits . How on earth can you be called an independent country when you can't decide who receives your taxpayers money or even decide who can and can't enter your country .

[derry]

At last the Sham Scam Cameron stitch up has been published. As was predicted choreographed meaningless agreements without treaty change that mean three tenths of **** all change, attempting to con the people as they did in 1975.

[Wade Garrett]

Cameron reminds me of an oily used car salesman, and his 'negotiations' with Europe are nothing more than a charade.

 

I dont trust the EU to make good any any 'promises'.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Pathetic lies yet again . Why don't the EU nutters ever show principle , why don't they ever defend their beloved Union . Europeans tell the truth , they know what the EU is and accept it . Our Pro EU politicians just use smoke & mirrors .

[aintforever]

The problem with these 'negotiations' is that Cameron and the other EU leaders want the same thing - the people of the UK to vote to stay in. So all they are negotiating is how to word a package that the mugs in the UK will swallow that will upset the EU machine as little as possible.

[Wade Garrett]

Any thoughts, facts or reasoning behind that or just a random tourettes thing?

 

Your statement about more Brits moving abroad than EU nationals coming here is horsesh*t.

[buctootim]

Also now is likely the highwater mark of immigration from the EU - when the UK unemployment is relatively low and some major EU economies like Spain are weak. In the past, and probably in the future too, far more UK nationals have been going abroad to live and work than EU nationals coming here.

 

Your statement about more Brits moving abroad than EU nationals coming here is horsesh*t.

 

Im sure National Statistics are grateful for your input.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_425188.pdf

Edited 3 February, 2016 by buctootim

[Batman]

[Wade Garrett]

Im sure National Statistics are grateful for your input.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_425188.pdf

 

Very misleading, and you're missing the point. Show the stats from when EU freedom of movement started, and the EU was enlarged to include at least Poland.

Immigration is immigration, whether from the EU or not. I'm not against immigration, but we have no control over our borders to EU migrants. Our public services are creaking under their weight, wages have been driven down and we have a housing shortage.

We need a cohesive, controlled immigration policy. It is impossible to have that whilst in the EU.

[buctootim]

Very misleading, and you're missing the point. Show the stats from when EU freedom of movement started, and the EU was enlarged to include at least Poland.

Immigration is immigration, whether from the EU or not. I'm not against immigration, but we have no control over our borders to EU migrants. Our public services are creaking under their weight, wages have been driven down and we have a housing shortage.

We need a cohesive, controlled immigration policy. It is impossible to have that whilst in the EU.

 

How is that misleading? it clearly shows the stats from 1975 up to date, including the enlargement.

 

For 34 of those 40 years more Brits have gone to live abroad than EU citizens coming here, some 2.5 million out and about 1 million in. I don't remember too many complaints when jobless British workers were going to Germany in the 1980s or that them leaving was driving up British wages and making housing too cheap. A friend of mine currently weekly commutes to Denmark for work so gets paid very nicely there and repatriates the cash to Britain.

 

By far the majority of immigration over the past 40 years has been from outside the EU. Yes of course there has been a spike in EU immigration the past six years or so, but its a relatively minor part of pressure on services. Half the population increase over the past 15 years has been due to higher UK birth and lower death rate. Much of the rest is non EU immigration.

[aintforever]

Yes of course there has been a spike in EU immigration the past six years or so, but its a relatively minor part of pressure on services. Half the population increase over the past 15 years has been due to higher UK birth and lower death rate. Much of the rest is non EU immigration.

 

May well be the case, but fact is there is pressure on public services, downward pressure on wages and a housing crisis - all of which will get worse with uncontrolled immigration.

 

Or maybe you could explain how having no control over the thousands who come in helps these problems?

[buctootim]

May well be the case, but fact is there is pressure on public services, downward pressure on wages and a housing crisis - all of which will get worse with uncontrolled immigration.

 

Sure, I dont disagree. The majority of EU immigration is young people coming here to work - so paying taxes and using few of the expensive services like health and pensions. They obviously do impact on housing - but its an easy problem to fix - build more houses, it doesnt cost the taxpayer anything.

 

You have to ask why non EU immigration is still three or four times higher than historical average.

 

If the majority of the EU continues to have slow economic growth for years ahead then there is a problem. Atm I see it as us having to pull the train for a while having benefitted from it in the past.

[aintforever]

Sure, I dont disagree. The majority of EU immigration is young people coming here to work - so paying taxes and using few of the expensive services like health and pensions. They obviously do impact on housing - but its an easy problem to fix - build more houses, it doesnt cost the taxpayer anything.

 

You have to ask why non EU immigration is still three or four times higher than historical average.

 

If the majority of the EU continues to have slow economic growth for years ahead then there is a problem. Atm I see it as us having to pull the train for a while having benefitted from it in the past.

 

But how much tax does someone on minimum wage actually pay? It would be interesting to know how long a Polish cleaner had to work before their tax take covered even a simple operation on the NHS.

 

A points based system which lets in only the skills we need would be ideal, IMO it would offset any negative impacts of leaving the EU.

[buctootim]

But how much tax does someone on minimum wage actually pay? It would be interesting to know how long a Polish cleaner had to work before their tax take covered even a simple operation on the NHS.

 

A points based system which lets in only the skills we need would be ideal, IMO it would offset any negative impacts of leaving the EU.

 

A 30 year old Polish cleaner on minimum wage is probably more of a nett contributor (or less of a drag) to the UK economy than a 70 year living in Malaga on their British pension is to the Spanish one. I think if we left and everyone was sent home we wouldnt be any better off.

 

If this government had really got to grips with non EU immigration and the EU was the last uncontrolled issue to fix then there would be a case for leaving. It hasnt, non EU numbers are actually on a upward path again. I just think of all the issues facing the UK EU immigration is relatively minor, when you consider the wider picture and all our expats.

[Sour Mash]

Many still missing the key point.

 

We have no control on EU immigration, none.

 

Unless you think we get exactly the right quantities and exactly the right skills, you must surely be for us regaining control of our own borders.

[aintforever]

A 30 year old Polish cleaner on minimum wage is probably more of a nett contributor (or less of a drag) to the UK economy than a 70 year living in Malaga on their British pension is to the Spanish one. I think if we left and everyone was sent home we wouldnt be any better off.

 

If this government had really got to grips with non EU immigration and the EU was the last uncontrolled issue to fix then there would be a case for leaving. It hasnt, non EU numbers are actually on a upward path again. I just think of all the issues facing the UK EU immigration is relatively minor, when you consider the wider picture and all our expats.

 

 

I dunno, I bet the expats in Spain contribute a fair amount to the local economy. Doubt they would be sent home.

[buctootim]

I dunno, I bet the expats in Spain contribute a fair amount to the local economy. Doubt they would be sent home.

 

Healthcare is the biggest cost by far for most governments - and although I cant remember the exact stats on average around half of the healthcare you receive will be 0-65 and the other half of the spend will be 65 till death at c79.

 

Im not saying they would be sent home if we left - but then we wouldnt send the current EU immigrants home either so nett benefit will be zilch.

[Wade Garrett]

How is that misleading? it clearly shows the stats from 1975 up to date, including the enlargement.

 

For 34 of those 40 years more Brits have gone to live abroad than EU citizens coming here, some 2.5 million out and about 1 million in. I don't remember too many complaints when jobless British workers were going to Germany in the 1980s or that them leaving was driving up British wages and making housing too cheap. A friend of mine currently weekly commutes to Denmark for work so gets paid very nicely there and repatriates the cash to Britain.

 

By far the majority of immigration over the past 40 years has been from outside the EU. Yes of course there has been a spike in EU immigration the past six years or so, but its a relatively minor part of pressure on services. Half the population increase over the past 15 years has been due to higher UK birth and lower death rate. Much of the rest is non EU immigration.

 

It's misleading because it doesn't clearly show the effect freedom of movement in the EU has had on Britain.

 

I think we'll have to agree to disagree.

[Batman]

Looks like the EU have rejected the proposals from the UK!

[Wade Garrett]

Looks like the EU have rejected the proposals from the UK!

 

Good. It's a crap deal for GB anyway.

[hypochondriac]

Looks like the EU have rejected the proposals from the UK!

 

Dave will be bricking it if they do reject it. What will most likely happen is they will change the wording to make it even more ineffective but dave will pretend it is still essentially the same thing.

[Verbal]

Sure, I dont disagree. The majority of EU immigration is young people coming here to work - so paying taxes and using few of the expensive services like health and pensions. They obviously do impact on housing - but its an easy problem to fix - build more houses, it doesnt cost the taxpayer anything.

 

You have to ask why non EU immigration is still three or four times higher than historical average.

 

If the majority of the EU continues to have slow economic growth for years ahead then there is a problem. Atm I see it as us having to pull the train for a while having benefitted from it in the past.

 

There needs to be a more frank and honest discussion about immigration on the left. Migrants clearly do have an impact on GP surgeries, where waiting times for appointments have risen from hours and days, to weeks. And immigration does have an impact on housing (although the measures are complex) - but to say that building more houses is "an easy problem to fix" flies in the face of stark reality. What's missing in this list is primary and secondary education, which are facing huge pressures where population surges have taken place. (A recent example in London was a primary school whose catchment area was reduced to 92 metres from the school gates).

 

It's also obviously rather glib to assume that east-European migrants will pull out of Britain as the tide goes out on the British economy.

 

The impact of EU and other immigration is felt primarily in working class areas of cities - Glasgow, Sheffield, London, but also Peterborough, Northampton, etc. These are traditional Labour-supporting places in which UKIP has gained at least a foothold, partly because many feel abandoned by Labour.

 

UKIP may have won only one seat in the last election, but the votes they amassed helped wreck Miliband's slim chance of becoming PM. I don't see things exactly improving under the new broom - and that will be reinforced during an EU referendum which will be read as an opportunity to vote no to immigration in many quarters.

[ScepticalStan]

What do people think of the actual likelihood of us leaving?

 

Odds-wise, best you can get on 'Stay' is 2/5 and 'Leave' is 5/2.

 

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

 

Personally I think those odds are pretty generous on 'Stay'. I can't for the life of me see us leaving, although I would like us to.

[Wade Garrett]

Embarrassing watching Cameron beg the EU for a deal that won't make a blind bit of difference to immigration. He must be one crap poker player.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

A potentially significant, but perhaps little discussed so far, aspect of this debate is that Norwegian and Swiss experience shows that even if the UK did opt to leave then we would STILL have to make a arrangement with the EU to allow for the ''free movement'' of people anyway as free trade and free movement are considered to be indivisible principles. In other words you can't have one without the other.

 

http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/immigration-and-justice/norway-and-switzerland/

 

Whether you much like the EU as a institution or not, if the above is indeed true and you - in effect - remove the immigration question from the debate then surely the case for ''Britex'' is severely undermined and the deal the PM is currently attempting to secure may suddenly start to look more attractive.

[Wes Tender]

A potentially significant, but perhaps little discussed so far, aspect of this debate is that Norwegian and Swiss experience shows that even if the UK did opt to leave then we would STILL have to make a arrangement with the EU to allow for the ''free movement'' of people anyway as free trade and free movement are considered to be indivisible principles. In other words you can't have one without the other.

 

http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/immigration-and-justice/norway-and-switzerland/

 

Whether you much like the EU as a institution or not, if the above is indeed true and you - in effect - remove the immigration question from the debate then surely the case for ''Britex'' is severely undermined and the deal the PM is currently attempting to secure may suddenly start to look more attractive.

 

I would be interested in your explanation as to why free trade agreements would have to be inextricably linked to free movement of people. Do we have to accept free movement of the peoples of those countries outside the EU with whom we have trade agreements? When Iceland signed its trade agreement with China, was that on the basis that unlimited numbers of Chinese could go and live in Iceland as a result?

 

Those advocating exit often mention Norway and Switzerland as models the UK should follow outside the EU.

 

Do they? As far as I can see, it is the people who wish us to remain in the EU who cite the examples of Norway and Switzerland and how they are hampered by these rules on free movement, how they have to abide by the EU rules without having any say in them. As the article also reports, the Swiss have voted in a referendum for the ability to impose their own quotas on immigration into their country from the EU zone, so if we voted to leave, other member states might decide to follow and a domino effect might ensue. It seems a good idea that should we vote to leave, Norway and Switzerland should be among the first countries that we agree increased trading agreements with.

 

The freedom of movement between member states of the EU might well be linked to free trade agreements, but if we voted to leave the EU, we would then renegotiate our trade agreements with them on mutually acceptable terms. As the fifth biggest economy in the World, we are quite a different entity to Norway and Switzerland and with immigration being perhaps the major issue in the referendum, we are hardly going to accept the free movement of peoples from the EU to the UK on the EU's terms. The object of leaving is to regain control over our borders and to make our own rules regarding who we were prepared to allow in and what access they then had to benefits, healthcare, etc.

[derry]

If Cameron and the stay in part of the government lose they have to resign and give way to the leave part of the government to negotiate any deals. In my view there is no way than anybody who is supporting the stay in result should be allowed to take part in any subsequent negotiations with the EU. I personally think there are a lot of people who are going to vote out who aren't making any noise at all, just waiting for the opportunity to burst the political bubble that they despise. People from all political persuasions.

[Batman]

what a tragic time. The British Prime Minister going around with the begging bowl. One of the most powerful, rich and influential Nations on earth, begging to almost 3rd world countries for help

 

Get out of this shambles.

[aintforever]

It is ****ing bonkers, having the leader of Poland telling us that we must send child benefits to children living in Poland - and there can be no negotiation.

 

I vote we leave the EU, if only to negotiate a better deal to re-join should we want to.

[Wes Tender]

It is ****ing bonkers, having the leader of Poland telling us that we must send child benefits to children living in Poland - and there can be no negotiation.

 

I vote we leave the EU, if only to negotiate a better deal to re-join should we want to.

 

I agree totally. There is a solution that would stop this fiasco in its tracks and I wonder why there has not been a campaign to introduce it. It is simply that the country of origin of the benefits or health care claimants, reimburses the country providing those benefits of health care provisions. So if Poland (or any of the other countries who are up in arms at the audacity of us trying to get these payments or services restricted) had to refund the monies or costs of the services provided, then they would quickly find ways of being more amenable to measures restricting the numbers of their economic migrants.

[Verbal]

My guess, based on this week's shenanigans, is the referendum campaign will go very badly for Cameron and the EU, and in the weeks leading up to the vote itself there may be some mad scramble to cobble together a reworked deal that may sway voters.

 

If not, I see this heading for a narrow no majority - so the constitutional disaster Cameron narrowly and rather luckily avoided with the Scottish referendum will this time come to pass.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

My guess, based on this week's shenanigans, is the referendum campaign will go very badly for Cameron and the EU, and in the weeks leading up to the vote itself there may be some mad scramble to cobble together a reworked deal that may sway voters.

 

If not, I see this heading for a narrow no majority - so the constitutional disaster Cameron narrowly and rather luckily avoided with the Scottish referendum will this time come to pass.

 

Well I would expect a narrow call but in the great tradition of EU democracy if we vote to leave then there will immediately be a new package put together and we would be given another referendum when we vote to stay in.

[Wes Tender]

Well I would expect a narrow call but in the great tradition of EU democracy if we vote to leave then there will immediately be a new package put together and we would be given another referendum when we vote to stay in.

 

If Cameron doesn't get a deal on the reforms we require this weekend, then he ought to concentrate minds in the EU by declaring that he would then place himself firmly in the Brexit camp. Unfortunately, I don't believe he has the balls to do that because he isn't that principled and could not countenance the loss of face he would suffer. But there is a good chance that Boris Johnson will join the Brexit group and gain much personal kudos in the process.

[Lord Duckhunter]

It is ****ing bonkers, having the leader of Poland telling us that we must send child benefits to children living in Poland - and there can be no negotiation.

 

I vote we leave the EU, if only to negotiate a better deal to re-join should we want to.

 

You wouldn't think it was bonkers for a Scotsman to work in London and send child benefit back to Glasgow. That is exactly how the EU see it.

 

The problem is that the British Establishment have lied to the people for 40 years and tried to claim it's just some sort of trading bloc. It isn't , it never has been and it never will . The Europeans except this and in the main agree with it, but because the Brits would never except it we are conned and lied to. The Remain nutters nerver ever make a positive case for the EU as it is. They all talk about reforming it, but it's horseshiete , it won't reform because its exactly what the Establishment want , it does exactly what it says on the tin. This insulting pantomime that Cameron is engaged in is just one big con. Why can't he just admit what the EU is asnd where it's heading , then we can vote in or out . The won't because it'll be Out , just as it would have been back in the 70's had the people known what it was to become .

Edited 19 February, 2016 by Lord Duckhunter

[ecuk268]

My guess, based on this week's shenanigans, is the referendum campaign will go very badly for Cameron and the EU, and in the weeks leading up to the vote itself there may be some mad scramble to cobble together a reworked deal that may sway voters.

 

If not, I see this heading for a narrow no majority - so the constitutional disaster Cameron narrowly and rather luckily avoided with the Scottish referendum will this time come to pass.

 

Does there have to be a specified percentage majority or would 1 vote swing it?

[buctootim]

Cameron made a tactical mistake. He isnt going to get a meaningful special deal Britain because the other 27 members know you cant run the EU on a pick and mix basis - that defeats the whole purpose. In any event no-one is going to vote for Britain to get a better deal than their own citizens.

 

Cameron would have been better waiting for two years and seeing what effect emerging nationalism across Europe has on the EU as a whole. Eurosceptic parties hold 25% of the seats in the current European Parliament and the refugee crisis is creating tensions in places like Austria and Denmark. Europe as a whole will have to change and the landscape could look very different within this parliament, rendering Cameron's deal irrelevant.

Edited 19 February, 2016 by buctootim

[Snopper]

Does there have to be a specified percentage majority or would 1 vote swing it?

 

I imagine one vote will do it. I hope it`s mine