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Guided Missile

Saints Web Definitely Not Official Second Referendum  

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  1. 1. Saints Web Definitely Not Official Second Referendum

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quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Guided Missile viewpost-right.png

In the coming years the UK will be also recognised as the country that jumped into a lifeboat, not went down with the ship. I give Deutsche Bank about another 6 months before it all goes t!ts up and wipes the smirk off Frau Merkels face and bankrupts the banks in Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece, while our banks watch in amusement. The fear lot really got to you, didn't they? The only thing to fear is fear itself....

 

"Hear now this, O foolish people, and without understanding; which have eyes, and see not; which have ears, and hear not."

 

So, Deutsche Bank is about to disappear into a "suicidal" merger with Commerzbank and the biggest failure of the lot, Italy, is in the news today.

 

 

 

I must admit that the sight of a former chief economist of the Italian treasury taking no responsibility for the mess the Italian banking system is now in is fairly typical of his ilk, but hey, we all know that economic forecasting is all about driving a car at 70 mph with your eyes glued to the rear view mirror, telling your passengers not to worry..

Imagine the panic of shareholders who tried to sell up years ago but couldn’t. They’re now stuck in a failing company and having to stump up more cash to bail it out.

 

Still at least Deutsche is okay.

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Surprise, surprise, Article XXIV raises its head.

 

 

Precisely hence why the Malthouse Compromise is likely to be DOA (among many reasons).

 

Give it a break pal - you've embarrassed yourself enough. Even Les -to his credit- acknowledges Article XXIV is a red herring.

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Labour confirms it will back Cooper amendment

Labour has confirmed it will back an amendment tabled by one of its backbench MPs which aims to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

 

MP Yvette Cooper tabled an amendment which attempts to rule out the UK leaving the EU without a formal deal by allowing parliament time to pass a new law.

 

The bill to bring in the new law would require Theresa May to seek to postpone Brexit day (currently 29 March) until 31 December, if MPs do not approve her deal by 26 February.

 

 

 

 

This will pass then.

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Labour confirms it will back Cooper amendment

Labour has confirmed it will back an amendment tabled by one of its backbench MPs which aims to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

 

MP Yvette Cooper tabled an amendment which attempts to rule out the UK leaving the EU without a formal deal by allowing parliament time to pass a new law.

 

The bill to bring in the new law would require Theresa May to seek to postpone Brexit day (currently 29 March) until 31 December, if MPs do not approve her deal by 26 February.

 

This will pass then.

 

It will if Labour are on a suicide mission. Apart from the implications of the totally unconstitutional nature of what the amendment seeks to secure, numerous Labour MPs in their Leave voting industrial heartlands will be wondering what to do with their time once their Parliamentary careers are over come the next election, unless they vote against it. The article suggests that the Labour leadership would prefer a delay of 3 months rather than 9 months. The longer delay would mean that we would enter the EU elections, which the EU wouldn't like one bit, as there would quickly be anti-EU candidates available who would allow the electorate to express their anger towards the main political parties and the EU in no uncertain terms. Even with the can being kicked down the road by three months, I suspect that the anger of certain sections of the electorate will boil over in the streets anyway. I hope that Labour have taken these things into account.

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It will if Labour are on a suicide mission. Apart from the implications of the totally unconstitutional nature of what the amendment seeks to secure, numerous Labour MPs in their Leave voting industrial heartlands will be wondering what to do with their time once their Parliamentary careers are over come the next election, unless they vote against it. The article suggests that the Labour leadership would prefer a delay of 3 months rather than 9 months. The longer delay would mean that we would enter the EU elections, which the EU wouldn't like one bit, as there would quickly be anti-EU candidates available who would allow the electorate to express their anger towards the main political parties and the EU in no uncertain terms. Even with the can being kicked down the road by three months, I suspect that the anger of certain sections of the electorate will boil over in the streets anyway. I hope that Labour have taken these things into account.

 

This isn't stopping Brexit - it's just stopping "No Deal", so shouldn't have any effect on their 'Leave voting Industrial Heartlands'.

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Labour confirms it will back Cooper amendment

Labour has confirmed it will back an amendment tabled by one of its backbench MPs which aims to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

 

MP Yvette Cooper tabled an amendment which attempts to rule out the UK leaving the EU without a formal deal by allowing parliament time to pass a new law.

 

The bill to bring in the new law would require Theresa May to seek to postpone Brexit day (currently 29 March) until 31 December, if MPs do not approve her deal by 26 February.

 

 

 

 

This will pass then.

 

They’re one vote down.

 

Peterborough MP in the slammer.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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This isn't stopping Brexit - it's just stopping "No Deal", so shouldn't have any effect on their 'Leave voting Industrial Heartlands'.

 

Stopping "no deal" is the most stupid negotiation error that anybody could possible commit. Item 1 in Negotiation for Dummies is almost certainly that in order to secure a good deal, one must be prepared to walk away from a bad deal.

 

But please do credit the electorate to have the intelligence to recognise that the Cooper amendment isn't designed to take no deal off the table; that is the window dressing. It is a delaying tactic to kick the can down the road to allow time for the Loser's Referendum campaign to gain momentum, aided and abetted by several months more of project fear on steroids. But as I say, if Cooper's amendment does pass resulting in a delay running into several months, there will be dire consequences, not only for our political constitution, but also in terms of civil disorder.

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This isn't stopping Brexit - it's just stopping "No Deal", so shouldn't have any effect on their 'Leave voting Industrial Heartlands'.

 

Surely you don’t believe that pony do you. It forces the Government to come back with an amendable motion, watch the Remainiacs jump all over that. If you think they’ll suffer no electoral damage you’re deluded. Labour MP’s in leave areas have been in to see Jezza, they’re out and about in their constituencies on a regular basis, they know exactly the damage this will cause them.

 

 

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Stopping "no deal" is the most stupid negotiation error that anybody could possible commit. Item 1 in Negotiation for Dummies is almost certainly that in order to secure a good deal, one must be prepared to walk away from a bad deal.

 

But please do credit the electorate to have the intelligence to recognise that the Cooper amendment isn't designed to take no deal off the table; that is the window dressing. It is a delaying tactic to kick the can down the road to allow time for the Loser's Referendum campaign to gain momentum, aided and abetted by several months more of project fear on steroids. But as I say, if Cooper's amendment does pass resulting in a delay running into several months, there will be dire consequences, not only for our political constitution, but also in terms of civil disorder.

 

Les - what usually happens when you walk away from a negotiation?

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Surely you don’t believe that pony do you. It forces the Government to come back with an amendable motion, watch the Remainiacs jump all over that. If you think they’ll suffer no electoral damage you’re deluded. Labour MP’s in leave areas have been in to see Jezza, they’re out and about in their constituencies on a regular basis, they know exactly the damage this will cause them.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

You sound flustered pal.

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Surely you don’t believe that pony do you. It forces the Government to come back with an amendable motion, watch the Remainiacs jump all over that. If you think they’ll suffer no electoral damage you’re deluded. Labour MP’s in leave areas have been in to see Jezza, they’re out and about in their constituencies on a regular basis, they know exactly the damage this will cause them.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

Unless people actually have changed their minds?

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Unless people actually have changed their minds?

 

No signs of anybody changing their minds in any great numbers. If anything, positions are becoming more entrenched. There have though been increasing signs of growing anger and exasperation at the delays in getting Brexit done and dusted, with talk of extensions, payment of £billions without guarantees of a deal, losers' referendums, and even stopping our leaving.

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I only walk away from a negotiation if the deal I am offered is unacceptable, therefore I would be better off not accepting it and seeking a better deal elsewhere.

 

Still haven't got it Les. Its not like walking away from one Ford car dealer and going to another. There is only place you can negotiate a deal for constant state access covering 73% of our exports.

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Surely you don’t believe that pony do you. It forces the Government to come back with an amendable motion, watch the Remainiacs jump all over that. If you think they’ll suffer no electoral damage you’re deluded. Labour MP’s in leave areas have been in to see Jezza, they’re out and about in their constituencies on a regular basis, they know exactly the damage this will cause them.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

But why, they're delivering Brexit, which is what the public asked for?

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Stopping "no deal" is the most stupid negotiation error that anybody could possible commit. Item 1 in Negotiation for Dummies is almost certainly that in order to secure a good deal, one must be prepared to walk away from a bad deal.

 

But please do credit the electorate to have the intelligence to recognise that the Cooper amendment isn't designed to take no deal off the table; that is the window dressing. It is a delaying tactic to kick the can down the road to allow time for the Loser's Referendum campaign to gain momentum, aided and abetted by several months more of project fear on steroids. But as I say, if Cooper's amendment does pass resulting in a delay running into several months, there will be dire consequences, not only for our political constitution, but also in terms of civil disorder.

 

"Dire consequences"... :lol:

 

t3_1nvvku?url=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FHtpiclN.gif&token=AQAAYXdQXKiyQEWPhUtx25CnOE972Y46O7NXMra2UzWo8DXZFeR6&app_name=mweb2x

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No signs of anybody changing their minds in any great numbers. If anything, positions are becoming more entrenched. There have though been increasing signs of growing anger and exasperation at the delays in getting Brexit done and dusted, with talk of extensions, payment of £billions without guarantees of a deal, losers' referendums, and even stopping our leaving.

 

They were talking about this earlier on LBC, vote-Leavers are now more entrenched even though they know they're wrong, as they don't want to admit they were wrong. Classic cutting off nose tactic.

Edited by Unbelievable Jeff
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No signs of anybody changing their minds in any great numbers. If anything, positions are becoming more entrenched. There have though been increasing signs of growing anger and exasperation at the delays in getting Brexit done and dusted, with talk of extensions, payment of £billions without guarantees of a deal, losers' referendums, and even stopping our leaving.

 

Thing is great numbers are not needed, the margin was small so as in most elections the battle is over a small number of floating voters. No one expects the Leave fundamentalists, the Empire craving oldies or the brainwashed far right thugs to change their minds, they won and no matter how bad that victory may turn out to be its winning what counts don't ya know.

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They were talking about this earlier on LBC, vote-Leavers are now more entrenched even though they know they're wrong, as they don't want to admit they were wrong. Classic cutting off nose tactic.

 

There are nob-heads on both sides more entrenched than ever. The vast majority of people just want whats best for the country, wether that's in or out the EU. I'm happy with leaving as long as the deal looks decent, at the moment the government has come up with nothing that looks an improvement on how we are at the moment. Voting for something that is now a bit more than an abstract concept makes sense.

Edited by aintforever
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Personally I think it is becoming a plan that we dont leave and we flop back in, as we were. The establishment want it and they will get it. The fear of leaving without a deal is cranking up in the media.

If we do get food shortages it will be pretty difficult, but surely there will be pressure from the suppliers in Spain, Holland, France, Germany etc etc who will see their profits hit and their staff losing jobs.

The EU are entrenched not to help one bit as the ywant to turn the screw to get us to buckle and wave the white flag.

I think remainers like myself are starting to get a bit disillusioned by the EU and their lack of helping this through, and perhaps we need to go to the wire and get all sides to get real.

We will no doubt get the owrst of it, but Im sure there are plenty of \european companies who are living in trepidation of a no deal as well

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I was a leave voter. I would 100% change my mind now, looks dumb and the leaders of the leave campaign have embarrassed themselves by offering **** all in terms of realistic alternatives to May's deals. Actually no alternatives at all apart from the nieve hard brexit/ WTO nonsense. Personally for me the remain campaign was based too much on the bad things that would happen if we left, as opposed to championing the good things we enjoy as part of the EU.

 

In the last 30 months I have travelled more in Europe and done a lot more business with people I now count as friends in Germany and the Netherlands in particular. They think we are crazy to leave, utterly insane actually as we have it so good right now, but wish good luck to us, we are friends and allies on a global level after all. The more you hear from scientists, engineers, medical professionals and captains of industry about the social and economic suicide we are committing - no amount of "come on, spirit of the blitz and all that" BS helps us.

 

Just my 2p worth anyway.

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Personally I think it is becoming a plan that we dont leave and we flop back in, as we were. The establishment want it and they will get it. The fear of leaving without a deal is cranking up in the media.

If we do get food shortages it will be pretty difficult, but surely there will be pressure from the suppliers in Spain, Holland, France, Germany etc etc who will see their profits hit and their staff losing jobs.

The EU are entrenched not to help one bit as the ywant to turn the screw to get us to buckle and wave the white flag.

I think remainers like myself are starting to get a bit disillusioned by the EU and their lack of helping this through, and perhaps we need to go to the wire and get all sides to get real.

We will no doubt get the owrst of it, but Im sure there are plenty of \european companies who are living in trepidation of a no deal as well

 

Lack of helping us through this? Next you’ll be claiming that the EU is bullying the UK. The EU is simply applying the rules that the UK helped co-design.

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Lack of helping us through this? Next you’ll be claiming that the EU is bullying the UK. The EU is simply applying the rules that the UK helped co-design.

 

Quite. Someone else raised the issue of the digital single market today - something which is vital for the continued health of the tech industry. Britain wasn't just the co-designer of this, but led the way. It had since resulted in a market and sometimes world lead in many tech sectors (notably fintech).

 

Yet even under May's political agreement, the digital single market is going to be binned. The consequences are already working their way through the industry, with relocations into the EU and falling inward investment.

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Frankly you’d expect all the morons and wannabe alan sugars who think the withdrawal agreement is worse than no deal (leaving aside the fact that the EU has had to compromise on the backstop) to welcome an extension. After all it would buy them additional time to prepare (insofar as it’s remotely possible) for a no deal and give their risible threats a bit more credibility at the margin. Of course, whether the EU would accept an extension to Article 50 without a good reason or plan is another matter - something that Cooper, Boles et al. have not fully considered either.

Edited by shurlock
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Still haven't got it Les. Its not like walking away from one Ford car dealer and going to another. There is only place you can negotiate a deal for constant state access covering 73% of our exports.

 

Oh, I thought I was answering Shurlock's question about what I would do if I didn't like a deal. That is what he asked me, wasn't it? Reading difficulties?

 

But in answer to your point:-

 

As the discussion was about the demerits of taking no deal of the table, do please let me know whether you believe our negotiating position is weakened or strengthened by telling the EU that we want a deal, but we aren't going to leave without a deal even if what they offer is a crap deal.

 

Under those circumstances, not only would we be the laughing stock of the World, but the EU would think that all of their Christmases had come at once.

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Oh, I thought I was answering Shurlock's question about what I would do if I didn't like a deal. That is what he asked me, wasn't it? Reading difficulties?

 

But in answer to your point:-

 

As the discussion was about the demerits of taking no deal of the table, do please let me know whether you believe our negotiating position is weakened or strengthened by telling the EU that we want a deal, but we aren't going to leave without a deal even if what they offer is a crap deal.

 

Under those circumstances, not only would we be the laughing stock of the World, but the EU would think that all of their Christmases had come at once.

 

 

Les - the UK is already the laughing stock of the world. Brexit alone has ensured that.

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Les - the UK is already the laughing stock of the world. Brexit alone has ensured that.

 

No, May has ensured that through her complete incompetence. Most of the civilised rest of the World can't understand how she has allowed the EU to set the agenda, to show no backbone, dither and obfuscate her way through the negotiations like a complete amateur, surrounding herself with useless advisors who are Remoaners, as she herself is.

 

Many of our friends and allies applauded our decision to leave the failing, busted flush EU and to take back control of our own destiny, to free ourselves from the bureaucratic ties that bound us. Now they are as exasperated as many of us are at the feeble attempts of our government to achieve it. Corbyn is the other reason why we have lost respect in the World; he is a complete joke.

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As it's the 29th January, I think it's worth digging up the October 2018 tweet from @J_amesp again:

 

Numerous sources have confirmed the British government is deliberately aiming for a no deal Brexit outcome in order to take advantage of extended powers available to them under the scenario - including civil contingencies and so-called Henry VIII. The Chequers plan is a ploy designed to engage the EU in distraction from the desired British outcome and create a false narrative at home in the UK that the EU are responsible. Sources claim emergency legislation is being prepared for January next year (2019) when the Withdrawal Act no deal deadlines pass - this would be 29/01 and the civil contingencies secretariat have been convened as per leaked Hammond notes recently, adding credibility. On Ireland: The British government hopes the EU will be forced to move first and install a hard border in Ireland in order to avoid blame itself for a situation it has created. Further sources claim the data harvested during Repeal 8th will be used in some "unity" campaigns.

 

The British government has progressed trade talks with the US to the point of potential emergency supply, moving substantially beyond informal discussions - though the Trump administration should not be taken at its word, a degree of reliance on this has been factored in UK side. The government intends to create a tax haven on the EU's doorstep to exploit financial service deregulation. This speaks for itself. The British government aims to prevent France and other EU countries from properly preparing for no deal by continuing to falsely engage in the negotiations in bad faith, keeping the EU27 from moving from early stage plans to contingency measures as long as possible. The British government hopes this will create a ripple effect of impact so it can later pursue a "Europe in chaos" narrative of disinformation and exploit the situation. In short hoping to spread the load of no deal impact, particularly into France due to geographical impact. The British government hopes this collateral damage will add to planned disruption around the EU election processes next spring and they will use dissident relationships to further this - likely to include Orban. The British are aware that contingency planning in France has not yet reached operational unit level even in the GIGN because the general French presumption is that the British government is genuinely engaged in good faith, which they are not.

 

I wonder...

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No signs of anybody changing their minds in any great numbers. If anything, positions are becoming more entrenched. There have though been increasing signs of growing anger and exasperation at the delays in getting Brexit done and dusted, with talk of extensions, payment of £billions without guarantees of a deal, losers' referendums, and even stopping our leaving.

 

 

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/ one of many

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As I said, there is scant evidence of changing opinion in great numbers. You can link to limited number of voters polls all you like, but they are dependent on where they take their samples, what question is asked, etc.

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Those same 'allies' that have, or are negotiating, comprehensive trade agreements with the 'busted flush' ?

 

Surely you realise that there is a great deal of difference between negotiating free trade deals with a bloc and seeking membership of a union with it. I don't see any country wanting to trade with a bloc involving annual payments to it, acceptance of that bloc's laws having precedence over theirs, having to accept uncontrolled immigration, etc. Would Canada, Japan, Korea, etc have accepted those as a price they were prepared to pay to trade with the EU?

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I was a leave voter. I would 100% change my mind now, looks dumb and the leaders of the leave campaign have embarrassed themselves by offering **** all in terms of realistic alternatives to May's deals. Actually no alternatives at all apart from the nieve hard brexit/ WTO nonsense. Personally for me the remain campaign was based too much on the bad things that would happen if we left, as opposed to championing the good things we enjoy as part of the EU.

 

In the last 30 months I have travelled more in Europe and done a lot more business with people I now count as friends in Germany and the Netherlands in particular. They think we are crazy to leave, utterly insane actually as we have it so good right now, but wish good luck to us, we are friends and allies on a global level after all. The more you hear from scientists, engineers, medical professionals and captains of industry about the social and economic suicide we are committing - no amount of "come on, spirit of the blitz and all that" BS helps us.

 

Just my 2p worth anyway.

 

Very good 2p it is as well. With the Maggie rebate, we've got a great deal. If people are concerned about any risk of getting drawn into further political union or very far fetched, EU armies, become a customs union member.

 

I agree that the Remain campaign was total cack and could have sold the above far better. It would have helped counter the blatant lies from Leave - although I think a legal threat to Johnson might have stopped the bus. Joint R&D between our companies and governments has reduced serious illnesses including cancers that helps all strata of society, and now Brexit threatens to get in the way of that. Madness.

 

Trouble is, a lot of the swivel eyed on here don't want any connection with the EU at all - and the views and obsessions are entrenched. All they are interested in is becoming Singapore or USA lite. Meanwhile the Leave campaign headliners will have it all piled away in the Caymans.

 

The pragmatic side of me wins, and I say take the flippin deal. Sort the backstop out with the EU and let's all move on.

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Surely you realise that there is a great deal of difference between negotiating free trade deals with a bloc and seeking membership of a union with it. I don't see any country wanting to trade with a bloc involving annual payments to it, acceptance of that bloc's laws having precedence over theirs, having to accept uncontrolled immigration, etc.

We do not have uncontrolled immigration. The EU might have an issue currently with the volume of migrants crossing from Africa and the Middle East, but the UK has control, ( however poorly the Home Office chooses to implement it ).

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We do not have uncontrolled immigration. The EU might have an issue currently with the volume of migrants crossing from Africa and the Middle East, but the UK has control, ( however poorly the Home Office chooses to implement it ).

 

Oh come on, Cameron went begging to Brussels to get a temporary ‘brake’ on immigration and he was told to get lost.

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As I said, there is scant evidence of changing opinion in great numbers. You can link to limited number of voters polls all you like, but they are dependent on where they take their samples, what question is asked, etc.

 

 

This is beginning to get a little surreal.

 

"No signs of anybody changing their minds in any great numbers" quote from Wes tender.

 

Highfield then posts evidence from an opinion poll showing how people have changed their minds.

 

"Well you can't trust opinion polls" from Wes tender.

 

We all know that opinion polls can be wrong ... but how can evidence of people changing their minds be found if we ignore opinion polls? What other means are there of gauging opinion? The number of letters on Points of View ????

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This is beginning to get a little surreal.

 

"No signs of anybody changing their minds in any great numbers" quote from Wes tender.

 

Highfield then posts evidence from an opinion poll showing how people have changed their minds.

 

"Well you can't trust opinion polls" from Wes tender.

 

We all know that opinion polls can be wrong ... but how can evidence of people changing their minds be found if we ignore opinion polls? What other means are there of gauging opinion? The number of letters on Points of View ????

 

 

I post this once more to illustrate how opinion polls can be influenced. The larger the sample, the greater the spread of the demographic area, the broader the spectrum of political affiliation, the more straightforward the question, the more accurate the result. I am yet to be convinced that this collection of polls satisfies those parameters to any great degree, so please excuse my scepticism.

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I post this once more to illustrate how opinion polls can be influenced. The larger the sample, the greater the spread of the demographic area, the broader the spectrum of political affiliation, the more straightforward the question, the more accurate the result. I am yet to be convinced that this collection of polls satisfies those parameters to any great degree, so please excuse my scepticism.

 

Those are actually fair points ?

 

Individually they aren’t conclusive and findings vary a bit depending o the exact question asked. But put together offer a very high level of confidence. The swing isn’t massive but it’s enough given the referendum margin of victory was so small. There is now a clear and consistent (albeit still relatively small) majority for remain

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  • Lighthouse changed the title to Brexit - Post Match Reaction

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