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Next 5 - Make or Break?

Dman

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Dman

Dman

Posted
Posted (edited)

Just looking at the next 5 fixtures and I'd say its easily the hardest run of 5 games we've had since we lost 4 on the bounce - arguabbly all season. I cannot see us getting through these next 5 without a defeat, so we need to win the other 4 imo and hope leeds don't gain any ground with a game against Leicester thrown in there. 

3 really tough away fixtures, especially with Brum looking a different team (under a manager whose previously outfoxed our manager this season) and Hull, who are my money for the playoffs. 

I'm gonna go for 8 points

Saints

Bristol (a)

West Brom (a)

Hull (h) - Game in hand on Leicester and Leeds

Milwall (h)

Birmingham (a)

 

Leeds (including 4 excluding our game in hand)

Swansea (a)

Plymouth (a)

Leicester (h)

Huddersfield (a)

 

If we're still ahead of leeds at the end of this run of games, we would have done fantastically well. 

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trousers

trousers

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Dman said:

I cannot see us getting through these next 5 without a defeat

I'm inclined to disagree (all subjective of course). My gut feel is that we'll stay undeafeated during these 5 games. My concern is more about how many of those will be draws rather than the wins we need to secure automatic promotion.

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SNSUN

SNSUN

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I look at our team now and I see confidence, fitness, strength in depth, togetherness and talent. Our downfall will either be defensively (as Huddersfield showed on Saturday), injury/suspension to key players or overconfidence/cockiness. There is no reason why we can't go unbeaten for those 5 games, or indeed the rest of the season.

However as a Saints fan with years of disappointment behind me I do think it's possible that as the fixtures get trickier, we may see our first defeat in donkeys. As long as it's the odd defeat amongst wins, it's not too much of an issue - it is draws that we don't want to get into the habit of.

I think we will win tomorrow, I think we will also beat Hull, Millwall and Brum, the WBA game at theirs is the one I think we will possibly come a bit unstuck. But we will see.

Ultimately that Leeds/Leicester game will be a key game in the next few fixtures. Win our game in hand and Leicester beat Leeds and suddenly we will have a nice gap over them.

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waylander

waylander

Posted
Posted (edited)

"Brum looking a different team"

A team that lost 2-0 to Sheff. Wednesday at the weekend

One significant challenge for this next block of games is Jan Bednarek is one yellow card away from a 2 match ban

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Sheaf Saint

Sheaf Saint

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1 hour ago, Dman said:

Just looking at the next 5 fixtures and I'd say its easily the hardest run of 5 games we've had since we lost 4 on the bounce - arguabbly all season. I cannot see us getting through these next 5 without a defeat, so we need to win the other 4 imo and hope leeds don't gain any ground with a game against Leicester thrown in there. 

3 really tough away fixtures, especially with Brum looking a different team (under a manager whose previously outfoxed our manager this season) and Hull, who are my money for the playoffs. 

I'm gonna go for 8 points

Saints

Bristol (a)

West Brom (a)

Hull (h) - Game in hand on Leicester and Leeds

Milwall (h)

Birmingham (a)

 

Leeds (including 4 excluding our game in hand)

Swansea (a)

Plymouth (a)

Leicester (h)

Huddersfield (a)

 

If we're still ahead of leeds at the end of this run of games, we would have done fantastically well. 

I know that Leeds fan was trying to convince everyone that we're going to come unstuck because our form against top 10 teams hasn't been so good so far, but those next four for Leeds are hardly gimmes themselves...

Swansea gave us a game of it in the second half at theirs recently. 

Leeds needed ET to beat Plymouth at theirs in the FA cup last week (both fielded significantly weakened first 11s though, admittedly)

Leicester have shown they're not unbeatable after their defeat at Coventry las month, but Leeds will have to work extremely hard to get anything out of that game

And Hudds showed that they are actually much better than their league positions suggests, and if they play like they did against us on Saturday then a Leeds win is far from guaranteed.

Put it this way - I wouldn't be rushing to place any bets that Leeds' points haul from their next 4 games will be any better than ours from our next 5.

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JRM

JRM

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1 hour ago, waylander said:

"Brum looking a different team"

A team that lost 2-0 to Sheff. Wednesday at the weekend

One significant challenge for this next block of games is Jan Bednarek is one yellow card away from a 2 match ban

Hopefully gets it against Hull, then banned for Millwall and Birmingham and can play in the FA Cup game in-between. 

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petermcpete

petermcpete

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Posted
3 minutes ago, JRM said:

Hopefully gets it against Hull, then banned for Millwall and Birmingham and can play in the FA Cup game in-between. 

I think any ban would cover all English games (league, FA cup, league cup) - so the FA cup game would be included in the ban.

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JRM

JRM

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5 minutes ago, petermcpete said:

I think any ban would cover all English games (league, FA cup, league cup) - so the FA cup game would be included in the ban.

I could be wrong but was told booking related suspensions are competition specific, whereas straight red suspensions cover all games. 

Either way a 2 game ban would be over quite quickly the number of games we have coming up 

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trousers

trousers

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, waylander said:

"Brum looking a different team"

A team that lost 2-0 to Sheff. Wednesday at the weekend

One significant challenge for this next block of games is Jan Bednarek is one yellow card away from a 2 match ban

 

12 minutes ago, JRM said:

Hopefully gets it against Hull, then banned for Millwall and Birmingham and can play in the FA Cup game in-between. 

Hopefully he can hold out until after matchweek 37 (9th March) as that's the cut-off date for 10 yellow cards (after that the trigger is 15 yellow cards for the remainder of the season, but that would result in a 3 game ban)

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trousers

trousers

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, petermcpete said:

I think any ban would cover all English games (league, FA cup, league cup) - so the FA cup game would be included in the ban.

 

3 minutes ago, JRM said:

I could be wrong but was told booking related suspensions are competition specific, whereas straight red suspensions cover all games. 

Either way a 2 game ban would be over quite quickly the number of games we have coming up 

 

2 minutes ago, waylander said:

I don't think that is the case

Yep, it's competition specific.

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OnceaSaintalwaysaSaint

OnceaSaintalwaysaSaint

Posted
Posted

Yes, this week's games could be close but I don't see these games being season defining. Mid-March is Ipswich and couple of weeks later is Leicester. That could be more make or break though by then we could be eight points clear of third in the League!

9 minutes ago, Lee On Solent Saint said:

Expecting wins in them all to be honest, save for WBA. Think we'll draw that one, read somewhere they had a couple of injuries at Ipswich last time out. 

 

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pingpong

pingpong

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Dman said:

Just looking at the next 5 fixtures and I'd say its easily the hardest run of 5 games we've had since we lost 4 on the bounce - arguabbly all season. I cannot see us getting through these next 5 without a defeat, so we need to win the other 4 imo and hope leeds don't gain any ground with a game against Leicester thrown in there. 

3 really tough away fixtures, especially with Brum looking a different team (under a manager whose previously outfoxed our manager this season) and Hull, who are my money for the playoffs. 

I'm gonna go for 8 points

Saints

Bristol (a)

West Brom (a)

Hull (h) - Game in hand on Leicester and Leeds

Milwall (h)

Birmingham (a)

 

Leeds (including 4 excluding our game in hand)

Swansea (a)

Plymouth (a)

Leicester (h)

Huddersfield (a)

 

If we're still ahead of leeds at the end of this run of games, we would have done fantastically well. 

I'd expect 13 points for us from those, maybe 11 if things goes badly, can't imagine losing to any of those.

For Leeds, I'd predict 7 or 9 it's.

 

Which leaves us looking pretty tidy if all goes as you'd expect.

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Sheaf Saint

Sheaf Saint

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21 minutes ago, Lee On Solent Saint said:

Expecting wins in them all to be honest, save for WBA. Think we'll draw that one, read somewhere they had a couple of injuries at Ipswich last time out. 

They did.

Kyle Bartley is a first choice CB so will be a big miss.

And Daryl Dike is a very injury prone striker who has only played 5 games all season (and scored once).

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Cabrone

Cabrone

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Forget Ipswich at your peril. They have Millwall(a), Swansea(a), Rotherham(h) and Brum (a). If they get their mojo back now they will climb right back into this.

Also looks like Millwall, Brum and Swansea will have a big say on how we come out of this patch of games.

Huddersfield was a good sparring session for us, I've felt that it's been a plain sailing for too long. We needed that game to knock out any complacency.

Hopefully we'll still be 2nd at the end of these but it's just too tight to call.

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S-Clarke

S-Clarke

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I keep thinking we'll have a wobble or do something odd, but we keep turning out results - different sort of results too.

You've got the really comfortable and professional jobs against the likes of Swansea, Blackburn, Wednesday etc, then you've got the 'dig in' until the last min against Millwall, Hull City etc.

Then you've got another way we've won - 2-0 down, 3-2 down and still win the game.

It's something we haven't associated with our team for many years, but we seem to be mentality monsters. They've got the sort of relentless momentum which can be hard to shake.

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S-Clarke

S-Clarke

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, HarvSFC said:

Small murmurs around Corberan being replaced at West Brom too. 

Where are you hearing that? He's done wonders to get them anywhere near the Top 6 in my opinion.

If he does get chopped then the fan reaction to their ownership would be so toxic and would totally end their season over night.

Edited by S-Clarke
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CB Fry

CB Fry

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6 hours ago, HarvSFC said:

Small murmurs around Corberan being replaced at West Brom too. 

Had a look and it appears to come from a guy who is trying to buy the club, and if he does he's going to appoint Juric the Torino manager.

So it is about the ego of a businessman who hasn't even bought WBA yet. Could all be bullshit anyway.

I don't think WBA will have a different manager come Friday.

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S-Clarke

S-Clarke

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6 minutes ago, Harry_SFC said:

I think the make or break period is the one that we buggered up earlier in the season.

Sunderland, Leicester, Middlesbrough and then Ipswich. 

How odd that we get that run of 4 again, certainly an opportunity to put right our wrongs there.

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Micky

Micky

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1 hour ago, Harry_SFC said:

I think the make or break period is the one that we buggered up earlier in the season.

Sunderland, Leicester, Middlesbrough and then Ipswich. 

Agree.  We have to keep winning until we get to these games and then not get beat.  If we take something from Sunderland, Leicester, Borough, Ipswich and Leeds we'll be rosy.  The period 9 March to 1 April is crucial for us, we need to take points off those around us. 

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Dr Who?

Dr Who?

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Dman said:

Just looking at the next 5 fixtures and I'd say its easily the hardest run of 5 games we've had since we lost 4 on the bounce - arguabbly all season. I cannot see us getting through these next 5 without a defeat, so we need to win the other 4 imo and hope leeds don't gain any ground with a game against Leicester thrown in there. 

3 really tough away fixtures, especially with Brum looking a different team (under a manager whose previously outfoxed our manager this season) and Hull, who are my money for the playoffs. 

I'm gonna go for 8 points

Saints

Bristol (a)

West Brom (a)

Hull (h) - Game in hand on Leicester and Leeds

Milwall (h)

Birmingham (a)

 

Leeds (including 4 excluding our game in hand)

Swansea (a)

Plymouth (a)

Leicester (h)

Huddersfield (a)

 

If we're still ahead of leeds at the end of this run of games, we would have done fantastically well. 

Saints

Bristol (a) W

West Brom (a) L

Hull (h) - Game in hand on Leicester and Leeds W

Milwall (h) W

Birmingham (a) W

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CB Fry

CB Fry

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5 hours ago, sfc4prem said:

12 pts out of a possible 15. Nearly 2.5 pts per game.

If we achieve that we will have a comfortable working lead over Leeds (and Ipswich). We can't all keep winning 

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Wade Garrett

Wade Garrett

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On 12/02/2024 at 10:35, Dman said:

Just looking at the next 5 fixtures and I'd say its easily the hardest run of 5 games we've had since we lost 4 on the bounce - arguabbly all season. I cannot see us getting through these next 5 without a defeat, so we need to win the other 4 imo and hope leeds don't gain any ground with a game against Leicester thrown in there. 

3 really tough away fixtures, especially with Brum looking a different team (under a manager whose previously outfoxed our manager this season) and Hull, who are my money for the playoffs. 

I'm gonna go for 8 points

Saints

Bristol (a)

West Brom (a)

Hull (h) - Game in hand on Leicester and Leeds

Milwall (h)

Birmingham (a)

 

Leeds (including 4 excluding our game in hand)

Swansea (a)

Plymouth (a)

Leicester (h)

Huddersfield (a)

 

If we're still ahead of leeds at the end of this run of games, we would have done fantastically well. 

If we keep playing the way we are, and we now have more players fit, I would be really disappointed with 8 points.

In truth, we’ll continue ripping this league apart.  Fuck Leeds.

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Wade Garrett

Wade Garrett

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17 hours ago, Dr Who? said:

Saints

Bristol (a) W

West Brom (a) L

Hull (h) - Game in hand on Leicester and Leeds W

Milwall (h) W

Birmingham (a) W

West Brom will be a tough game.  They played very well in our home game, although we hadn’t hit the form we’re in now back then.

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trousers

trousers

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On 12/02/2024 at 10:38, trousers said:

I'm inclined to disagree (all subjective of course). My gut feel is that we'll stay undeafeated during these 5 games. My concern is more about how many of those will be draws rather than the wins we need to secure automatic promotion.

Looks like I picked the wrong week to go ultra-positive... ;)

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saintant

saintant

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If we can somehow conjure up a win at West Brom we follow that with two home games and I'm confident we'll win both. That would give us 9 points from the 4 games including tonight's which would be a decent return. The hard part is obviously beating West Brom.

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CB Fry

CB Fry

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Yes the positive thing is if we win the (unquestionably tough) game against West Brom, and then beat Hull, we're back in second and it is in our hands again.

Leeds are not going to win every single game, just like we aren't.

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Dman

Dman

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3 hours ago, CB Fry said:

Yes the positive thing is if we win the (unquestionably tough) game against West Brom, and then beat Hull, we're back in second and it is in our hands again.

Leeds are not going to win every single game, just like we aren't.

Absolutley. But personally, I think on balance - given they're hitting some real form and have an easier run in, they'll end up with more points than us. 

It was always stupid people who thought we could chase down leicester. It was never going to happen, as proven. 

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Dman

Dman

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10 hours ago, saintant said:

If we can somehow conjure up a win at West Brom we follow that with two home games and I'm confident we'll win both. That would give us 9 points from the 4 games including tonight's which would be a decent return. The hard part is obviously beating West Brom.

Hull will be an incredibly tough game as well. They're looking a really good side, especially going forward. 

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Dellyears

Dellyears

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9 hours ago, Dman said:

Absolutley. But personally, I think on balance - given they're hitting some real form and have an easier run in, they'll end up with more points than us. 

It was always stupid people who thought we could chase down leicester. It was never going to happen, as proven. 

Quite right. We are in the hunt for second place and I'm more than happy with that. Last night was terrible and such a shock after recent form, but 'don't panic'  some lessons will have been learnt and no reason to think it was more than a blip. WBA had better look out!

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S-Clarke

S-Clarke

Posted
Posted (edited)

I'm looking at the next block of 4 - Millwall, Birmingham, Middlesborough and Sunderland - 12 points required from that to keep us within touch, anything less and Leeds will be pulling far away into the horizon and not to be seen again.

100+ points plus for the top 2 this year IMO, which is mental. I think we'll get high 80's, low 90's at best. Not to discredit as in most seasons that is an auto promotion tally and a great season, i.e our last two promotion efforts, but the level required this year is ridiculous and I don't see how we do it with our run and Leeds run. That's how it feels to me right now.

The level requires us to be faultless, and we haven't been.

Edited by S-Clarke
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Dman

Dman

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3 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

I'm looking at the next block of 4 - Millwall, Birmingham, Middlesborough and Sunderland - 12 points required from that to keep us within touch, anything less and Leeds will be pulling far away into the horizon and not to be seen again.

100+ points plus for the top 2 this year IMO, which is mental. I think we'll get high 80's, low 90's at best. Not to discredit as in most seasons that is an auto promotion tally and a great season, i.e our last two promotion efforts, but the level required this year is ridiculous and I don't see how we do it with our run and Leeds run. That's how it feels to me right now.

The level requires us to be faultless, and we haven't been.

Given the teams we'll likley face in the play-offs, we'll need to be faultless in those as well. 

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saintant

saintant

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On 13/02/2024 at 23:28, saintant said:

If we can somehow conjure up a win at West Brom we follow that with two home games and I'm confident we'll win both. That would give us 9 points from the 4 games including tonight's which would be a decent return. The hard part is obviously beating West Brom.

I hadn't bargained for last night's crazy team selection - don't think anyone other than RM would have.

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Baz Fl

Baz Fl

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Posted

My biggest fear is what our squad will look like if we don’t go up this season. Automatic or through playoffs I don’t care which one at this point. Most of our best performers are loan players and we will loose them all for next season if still stuck in the Championship and without those players our quality level drops drastically and that would basically sentence us to a long period away from promotion. Fingers are still crossed and enough games left to play, COYS!!🙏🙏🙏

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S-Clarke

S-Clarke

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9 minutes ago, Baz Fl said:

My biggest fear is what our squad will look like if we don’t go up this season. Automatic or through playoffs I don’t care which one at this point. Most of our best performers are loan players and we will loose them all for next season if still stuck in the Championship and without those players our quality level drops drastically and that would basically sentence us to a long period away from promotion. Fingers are still crossed and enough games left to play, COYS!!🙏🙏🙏

The drop off next season if we fail will be enormous. The following won't be here -

THB, Bednarek, KWP, Sulemana, Fraser, Brooks, Adams, S.Armstrong, Rothwell, Downes - and we'll probably get bids which will be hard to turn down for Adam Armstrong (as he will only have a year left).  Core of the team next year if we fail will be built around Stephens, Charles, Manning, Mara, Bree, Smallbone, Dibling, SAA - things of nightmares tbh.

Of course we'll reinvest and rejuvenate the squad, but there won't be a like for like replacement quality wise. The drop off will be quite steep, but hopefully the league won't be as ridiculous next season standard wise so a playoff push should still be a genuine target.

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Weston Super Saint

Weston Super Saint

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1 hour ago, S-Clarke said:

The drop off next season if we fail will be enormous. The following won't be here -

THB, Bednarek, KWP, Sulemana, Fraser, Brooks, Adams, S.Armstrong, Rothwell, Downes - and we'll probably get bids which will be hard to turn down for Adam Armstrong (as he will only have a year left).  Core of the team next year if we fail will be built around Stephens, Charles, Manning, Mara, Bree, Smallbone, Dibling, SAA - things of nightmares tbh.

Of course we'll reinvest and rejuvenate the squad, but there won't be a like for like replacement quality wise. The drop off will be quite steep, but hopefully the league won't be as ridiculous next season standard wise so a playoff push should still be a genuine target.

At least one, maybe even two of the current top four will still be in it. Probably Everton as well.  Will still be tough.

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S-Clarke

S-Clarke

Posted
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22 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

At least one, maybe even two of the current top four will still be in it. Probably Everton as well.  Will still be tough.

Not saying it'll be easy at all, still a very tough league. I do think (if it comes to it) we'd sort ourselves out enough to be in the playoff convo. 

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