Play Off Chase

[beatlesaint]

1 minute ago, chuz said:

Looks like even more teams with something to play for from next season.  

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/c4g00mr00zdo

We should be ok next season then 🤣

[Cabrone]

17 hours ago, benjii said:

I reckon 25 more points will get us 5th place, so we can afford to drop 8 points. 

Let's assume we lose against Coventry and Ipswich for the sake of argument, and draw with Wrexham. 

Means we need wins from:

WBA away

Norwich home

Oxford home

Derby home

Swansea home 

Bristol home 

Blackburn home

Preston away

When you look at the 'must win' fixtures you'd fancy our chances on a game by game basis but to win 8 out of 8? Not impossible but incredibly tight.

I do think we could get at least a point from Ipswich. We will need at least a draw with Wrexham.

A point not much talked about on here is that goal difference may also be crucial so we need to hammer the lesser teams as much as possible.

Wrexham's last 2 games are Cov(a)\Boro(h), our last 2 are Blackburn(h) and Preston(a).

Go into the last 2 games with at least +6 GD on Wrexham and I doubt they make that up, even if Cov\Boro are already guaranteed top 2. Hopefully they are not in which case Wrexham will be in trouble.

If it's that tight then GD is an extra point for us.

Edited Thursday at 13:54 by Cabrone

[SNSUN]

Come on Oxford! Preston still not far behind us but mainly i want Oxford to win to keep the relegation battle interesting. 

[Football Special]

On 04/03/2026 at 17:35, Convict Colony said:

best assessment of matches i have ever seen, love it.

I do like tho that you have oxford as piss easy tho bro, you must of forgotten they beat us 2-1 in Dec, lets hope they surprise the other teams.

Watched some of Oxford win away at Preston last night, classic unpredictable championship but no way can we go into that saying piss easy like you say they've already beaten us once 

[Football Special]

We'll inevitably drop a place in the league today, hoping Derby won't improve their goal difference too much, would be a shame to miss out on play offs due to goals scored by Ben Brerton Diaz 

[JohnnyShearer2.0]

If Hull dont win today AND Saints win at WBA, could close the gap to 4 points.

Dragging another place up for play-offs.

Edited Saturday at 09:27 by JohnnyShearer2.0

[LGTL]

Hull losing comfortably.

[Harry_SFC]

Just now, LGTL said:

Hull losing comfortably.

Thought they would, Millwall very impressive this season and I think Hull are running out of steam. 

[goodymatt]

Hull play Wrexham next…

[Danbert]

6 hours ago, Football Special said:

We'll inevitably drop a place in the league today, hoping Derby won't improve their goal difference too much, would be a shame to miss out on play offs due to goals scored by Ben Brerton Diaz 

I don't think you need worry too much about that

[Cuddles]

1 hour ago, Danbert said:

I don't think you need worry too much about that

Bugger 🤣

[SNSUN]

Come on Ipswich! They need to keep the top 2 chase alive until the last game of the season as Wrexham have two of them in the last two fixtures. Plus Leicester would still be relegation faves.

 

[West end Saints]

An Ai stat analysis (which won't be accurate but is a straw for me to clutch) includes league table, home away from and fixture predictions.

Currently 35% chance of top 6.

After Hull v Wrexham game, if Hull win up to 45%, draw remains 35%, but Wrexham win we go down to 20%.

 

This is their prediction for the rest of the season with us missing out by 2 points 

Wrexham 75 points

vs Hull City (H): Loss (1-2)

vs Swansea City (H): Win

vs Watford (A): Draw

vs Sheffield Utd (A): Loss

vs West Brom (A): Win

vs Southampton (H): Draw (1-1)

vs Birmingham City (A): Win

vs Stoke City (H): Win

vs Oxford Utd (A): Win

vs Coventry City (A): Loss

vs Middlesbrough (H): Draw

 

Our 73 points

vs West Brom (A): Win

vs Coventry City (A): Loss

vs Norwich City (H): Win

vs Oxford Utd (H): Win

vs Ipswich Town (H): Draw

vs Wrexham (A): Draw (1-1)

vs Derby County (H): Win

vs Swansea City (A): Draw

vs Bristol City (H): Win

vs Blackburn Rovers (H): Win

vs Preston (A): Loss

 

 

 

Edited Saturday at 17:29 by West end Saints

[die Mannyschaft]

I would rather have the points on the board than game in hand. Derby now back in the mix. 

Watching Wrexham in FA cup tonight I'm not sure we can contain thier attack, certainly not corners. 

[Andy Hill]

Agree about Wrexham - way too strong and physical for our lot.

[Football Special]

Just now, Andy Hill said:

Agree about Wrexham - way too strong and physical for our lot.

Very very impressive this evening weren't they, get the ball forward so quickly 

[Willo of Whiteley]

We left it too little too late.

[SNSUN]

27 minutes ago, Willo of Whiteley said:

We left it too little too late.

You're too early to say it's too late! 😀

[Oldandtired]

Some miserable sod has got to ask the question (I fit the bill nicely)... is the cup run going to be a distraction?

[tdmickey3]

Just now, Oldandtired said:

Some miserable sod has got to ask the question (I fit the bill nicely)... is the cup run going to be a distraction?

It will but we will have to manage it and no reason why we cant

[Harry_SFC]

2 minutes ago, Oldandtired said:

Some miserable sod has got to ask the question (I fit the bill nicely)... is the cup run going to be a distraction?

Maybe but it's an fa cup quarter final, one win from Wembley you can't say no to that 

[beatlesaint]

8 minutes ago, Oldandtired said:

Some miserable sod has got to ask the question (I fit the bill nicely)... is the cup run going to be a distraction?

Well the downside is it’ll be 2 more games to re-arrange instead of just one due to the quarters wiping out the Easter programme.

[ChrisPY]

7 minutes ago, beatlesaint said:

Well the downside is it’ll be 2 more games to re-arrange instead of just one due to the quarters wiping out the Easter programme.

7 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday league games this season (with the loss under Will Still) so could work in our favour.

[Willo of Whiteley]

Win the FA Cup this season.

Finish seventh.

Win the Championship next season.

Simple!

[skintsaint]

26 minutes ago, Willo of Whiteley said:

Win the FA Cup this season.

Finish seventh.

Win the Championship next season.

Simple!

don't forget about winning the Europa League next season too.

[SaintLondon]

You don't have to worry any more - I did a Championship predictor for remaining games and had Saints finishing 6th on 70 points and Hull finishing 7th on 68. If you're interested, Wrexham finish on 73 and Ipswich have a late surge to usurp Boro and finish 2nd. Pompey stay up on goal difference. WBA down. 

[SaintBobby]

Looks to me that it might all hang on that rearranged Wrexham match.

[benjii]

We're going to finish 5th.

#askBenjii

[Lord Duckhunter]

19 hours ago, Willo of Whiteley said:

Win the FA Cup this season.

Finish seventh.

If this happens they’ll be some calling for his head. Danny Rohl would have won the cup and got us promoted…

[Cabrone]

23 hours ago, Willo of Whiteley said:

We left it too little too late.

Wrexham look strong but Hull have only won 2 of their last 8, have no points in March and on Tuesday could be 4 points ahead having played a game more.

We have won 5 and drawn 1 and have just beaten a decent prem team at their own place. 

We are still very much in this.

[saintant]

I have a nagging worry about Norwich at home because they'll be no pushovers. Having watched them yesterday against Leeds, although they lost 3-0, they had plenty of good moments and showed they can produce some very good football. I think they have a long injury list too so presume they'll have players to come back in when fit who will do a job. Leeds were good yesterday and deserved to win but Norwich showed enough to convince me we'll do well to beat them at St Marys.

[saintant]

3 hours ago, SaintLondon said:

You don't have to worry any more - I did a Championship predictor for remaining games and had Saints finishing 6th on 70 points and Hull finishing 7th on 68. If you're interested, Wrexham finish on 73 and Ipswich have a late surge to usurp Boro and finish 2nd. Pompey stay up on goal difference. WBA down. 

Phew! That makes me feel a whole lot more confident. Nice to know we can relax now and look forward to the play-offs 🙂

[saintant]

3 hours ago, SaintLondon said:

You don't have to worry any more - I did a Championship predictor for remaining games and had Saints finishing 6th on 70 points and Hull finishing 7th on 68. If you're interested, Wrexham finish on 73 and Ipswich have a late surge to usurp Boro and finish 2nd. Pompey stay up on goal difference. WBA down. 

What did you predict for Norwich at home?

[Chez]

5 minutes ago, saintant said:

I have a nagging worry about Norwich at home because they'll be no pushovers. Having watched them yesterday against Leeds, although they lost 3-0, they had plenty of good moments and showed they can produce some very good football. I think they have a long injury list too so presume they'll have players to come back in when fit who will do a job. Leeds were good yesterday and deserved to win but Norwich showed enough to convince me we'll do well to beat them at St Marys.

I agree. Norwich game will be tough. They all will be, although WBA were absolutely pathetic against the Skates the other week, so you have to fancy us if we play to our potential.

[Jack]

Yeah Norwich at home will be a test, they’re in great form. Need to win 3 out of 4 really before the break 

[Football Special]

I expect we'll drop to 9th in the table tonight as Watford will beat Sheffield Wednesday, the Wrexham v Hull game will be interesting to watch whilst keeping a check on the Millwall v Derby game 

[West end Saints]

Back in our hands.

 

Win every game and we are up (as FA Cup winners).

 

Long way to go, and clearly won't win every game but it's nice thought that in theory we are not dependent on other results

[Chez]

Keiffer Moore probably out for the season. No bad thing for us.

[Whitey Grandad]

10 hours ago, West end Saints said:

Back in our hands.

 

Win every game and we are up (as FA Cup winners).

 

Long way to go, and clearly won't win every game but it's nice thought that in theory we are not dependent on other results

Troo dat.

Technically though we could draw the cup games and go through on penalties. 😚

[Football Special]

2 hours ago, Chez said:

Keiffer Moore probably out for the season. No bad thing for us.

I don't think it's that bad, I read might be back after international break 

[Saint86]

57 minutes ago, Football Special said:

I don't think it's that bad, I read might be back after international break 

1month is the rumour on the wrexham forums. Will be back to play us if the game gets moved.

[trousers]

Sky have just flagged the Ipswich game on Friday 3rd April as postponed. The Wrexham game on Monday 6th April still showing as on

 

[Saint Garrett]

Wrexham likely to be the day after on the Tuesday eve supposedly, which probably puts the Arsenal game on Friday or Saturday?

[coalman]

34 minutes ago, Football Special said:

I don't think it's that bad, I read might be back after international break 

If it's a split tendon he's not playing any time soon or at anywhere near his full potential. If he goes back to playing with it split he's risking a full rupture.

The Wrexham boss said they'd know more in a couple of weeks as the injury has to settle down first but healing is in the order of 6-12 weeks minimum.

[Saint86]

 

Wrexham missing a few for the next month at least, some for the season.

Its there for us to take... Just have to keep this form going. Will be a tough playoff semi final though as we're almost certain to be away for the decisive leg.

[Willo of Whiteley]

Arsenal will almost certainly be Saturday or Sunday due to our reschedule and to comply with Arsenal’s European Cup schedule.

This means that either Ipswich or Wrexham may be on the Wednesday the week after Easter.

However, Ipswich still need to play Portsmouth who have twice postponed so that’ll need to be taken into consideration.