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The Run-in: Remaining Games; All Teams

.comsaint

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.comsaint

.comsaint

Posted
Posted (edited)

- - Team - - - - - - Plyd - - - GD - - PTS

1. Brighton - - - - - 44 - - - - 46 - - - 94

2. SAINTS - - - - - 43 - - - - 41 - - - 83

3. Huddersfield - - - 44 - - - - 28 - - -83

4. Peterborough - - 44 - - - -26 - - - 75

5. MK Dons - - - - - 44 - - - - 5 - - - 71

6. Bournemouth - - 44 - - - - 22 -- - 70

7. Leyton Orient - -44 - - - - -9- - - 67

 

 

Remaining games (updated as & when fixtures are played):

 

BRIGHTON : Huddersfield (H); Notts County (A)

 

SOUTHAMPTON : Brentford (A); Plymouth (A); Walsall (H)

 

HUDDERSFIELD : Brighton (A); Brentford (H)

 

PETERBOROUGH : Rochdale (A); Dag & Red (H)

 

MK DONS : Notts County (H); Oldham (A)

 

BOURNEMOUTH : Hartlepool (A); Rochdale (H)

 

LEYTON ORIENT : Tranmere (H); Plymouth (A)

 

 

 

* Correct as of Mon April 25

Edited by .comsaint
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beatlesaint

beatlesaint

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I can honestly see us winning all our games from here on only tricky ones are away to Rochdale and Brighton

 

I agree, but by winning today we have taken the pressure off ourselves for Tuesday night.

Anything we get there can be considered a bonus especially given we will still have one game in hand.

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RedArmy

RedArmy

Posted
Posted

A win on Tuesday would leave us needing 12 points from the last 6 to guarantee promotion (Huddersfield wont catch up with our GD)

 

4 wins from:

Bristol R (H)

Brighton (A)

Hartlepool (H)

Brentford (A)

Plymouth (A)

Walsall (H)

 

Bring it on!

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yorkie

yorkie

Posted
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I have been tracking our form since the New Year...and estimated we would need an average of 2-points per game. I think we would end up on 84-points and I think that would be enough - with 7-games left and 21-points available I think we will easily achieve the avarage of 2-points and secure more than the 84-points originally estimated. Not sure we can win all our remaining games - but should be able to go undefeated until the end of the season. Although Brighton will be a tough game - we like night games in the north...Rochdale will be a tough test (just like Oldham was just across the M62).

A draw would not be a disaster - neither Peterborough or Huddersfield are playing on Tuesday night... time to put some real distance between us and the pretenders!

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benjii

benjii

Posted
Posted

I think it will be a really interesting match. We showed in the home match against them that if you set yourself up a certain way they are completely impotent and look, frankly, a bit silly.

 

Will be interesting to see how each manager starts. They defended excellently against us at home. Hopefully with the title in their sights and the pressure of expectation at home they don't defend with the same concentration levels. First goal will probably prove decisive.

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Mustapha Fag

Mustapha Fag

Posted
Posted
saints can beat any team in this league or lose to them on one of their many bad days. This makes the run-in unimportant for me. From now on it's all about team focus and our fans.

 

many bad days?

You have seen the table havnt you?

Jesus some of you people are from a different planet im sure

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EastleighSoulBoy

EastleighSoulBoy

Posted
Posted
I agree, but by winning today we have taken the pressure off ourselves for Tuesday night.

Anything we get there can be considered a bonus especially given we will still have one game in hand.

 

I don't think that NA is going to consider anything a bonus in any game. I believe he is keeping the lads focused and aimimh for top spot until Brighton make that impossible. NA is not going to let them take their foot off the pedal now.

 

After yesterday's game on a poor pitch with a team intent on muscling us out of things he has proven that we can play pretty footy and, yesterday, dig deep and work our way through, round and over teams like that.

 

The result is now almost tangible. Onward and upward you Saints!

 

Many years since I did an away match and the stadium itself seems to have been almost frozen in the 70's.

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The9

The9

Posted
Posted

Thing is, the most likely way that Brighton can win the title against Saints is by both teams winning all of their games until that point. Anything else and they'll either have already won it, or won't be able to clinch it on that day - unless everyone up there starts losing every game.

 

And given that we need 15 points to be mathematically certain, I'll take us winning the next 2 and then needing at most three wins from the last 5 matches no matter what anyone else does.

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dune

dune

Posted
Posted

I said before the Orient game if we can beat them (we have) and win at Rochdale we'll have cracked it.

 

Huddersfields next two games are just as pivotal and boy are they both tough. Charlton as a club think they're above this level (i remember their recent history so don't necessarily buy this) and MK Dons are side very much like us and Huddersfield and they'll be no pushovers.

 

But this is all about us from now on in.

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Cabrone

Cabrone

Posted
Posted

Looks like we really have the bit between our teeth now so I could honestly see us winning every game.

 

However, if we win our 3 home games (Rovers, Hartlepool and Walsall) and Plymouth away I think it would be enough.

 

Even if Posh were to win every game they'd only be able to match us (with an inferior goal difference) and Hudders would have to win 4 out of 5 plus win\draw the 5th - too much for them IMO especially considering the places they have yet to play at.

 

Really feeling that we have 1 foot in an auto spot now.

 

Been following this club for 30 odd years and I've never seen us get promotion. Please don't blow it Saints!

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Thimble

Thimble

Posted
Posted
Just seen Greer got a straight red today for brighton so that means a 3 match ban, He has been good for them this season and will miss the game against us

 

It is his second straight red of the season so it will be a 4 game ban!! Anyway, as has been said a win against the Daggers on Tuesday will put us up...But if you fail to beat Rochdale on the same night or Bristol Rovers in your following game then we can clinch the title next Saturday away at Walsall. So by the time you lot turn up at Withdean we could already be champions and might have a bearing on the game as Poyet has said once the job is done he fully intends to throw in development squad players for the remaining games so Greer might not have played anyway!

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Dazza82

Dazza82

Posted
Posted
It is his second straight red of the season so it will be a 4 game ban!! Anyway, as has been said a win against the Daggers on Tuesday will put us up...But if you fail to beat Rochdale on the same night or Bristol Rovers in your following game then we can clinch the title next Saturday away at Walsall. So by the time you lot turn up at Withdean we could already be champions and might have a bearing on the game as Poyet has said once the job is done he fully intends to throw in development squad players for the remaining games so Greer might not have played anyway!

 

If you lose to Daggers and Walsall, who are fighting then we beat you we will be 3 points behind you with a game in hand!

 

Cant see that though lol

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Seagull

Seagull

Posted
Posted
Rochdale v Bournemouth last game could decide who goes 6th.

 

I can honestly see us winning all our games from here on only tricky ones are away to Rochdale and Brighton

 

Brentford gave us (Brighton) and Huddersfield very close games and are playing some good stuff under Forster. Plymouth could be tough, but it depends on their players attitudes a bit really. Suspect there season will be over and you could hardly blame their players after a horrible season hardly getting payed not bothering. On the other hand perhaps they'll have the freedom to just go for it and give you a good game.

 

I think you lot are up now though, you'll win your last 3 home games and that should be enough, perhaps with an away win chucked in too. Hudds away games are very tough and I think that'll be the end of them.

 

I think it will be a really interesting match. We showed in the home match against them that if you set yourself up a certain way they are completely impotent and look, frankly, a bit silly.

 

Will be interesting to see how each manager starts. They defended excellently against us at home. Hopefully with the title in their sights and the pressure of expectation at home they don't defend with the same concentration levels. First goal will probably prove decisive.

 

I think home advantage will make a difference. We also, touch wood, won't have to play Battipiedi in midfield who's clearly not up to it and a 1st year pro at centre back. Will be a good game and could go either way though.

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derry

derry

Posted
Posted

On 28th December we beat Huddersfield 4-1, including that game we have taken 46 points from 20 games. If we continue to take points at that rate 2.3 per game we will be 90 points, Huddersfield can get a maximum of 89 points. Our games in hand are now a massive breathing space, as is our goal difference. we now need 15 points from 7 games and nobody can catch us. As no team will go to the end of the season without drawing one or two games we are well and truly now in the driving seat.

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SaintBobby

SaintBobby

Posted
Posted (edited)

It's amazingly unlikely that Huddersfield will win all five of their remaining games.

 

As I said on a previosu thread when someone reckoned they'd win their remaining six, the chances of this were prob around 100/1.

 

Looking at their five matches, I'd say their odds are approximately:

 

7/4 to beat Charlton A

2/1 to beat MK Dons A

1/3 to beat Dagenham H

5/2 to beat Brighton A

1/2 to beat Brentford H

 

To win all of them - on a accumulator - would therefore be odds of around 57/1.

 

So although we do need 15 points from here to be copper-bottomed certain, this target drops if Huddersfield drop any points at all.

 

The chance of them dropping at least some points is somewhere around 98% or more. If this 98% chance comes up, our target is 13 points or lower.

 

Keeping half an eye on Peterborough, we need 12 points to stay above them even if they win all their remaining five games.

 

Even on a pessimistic (from our point of view) look at the odds in their last five fixtures, they are longer than 20/1 to win the lot. So there's a 95% chance that we will need 10 points or less to stay ahead of Peterborough.

 

At a rough bag-of-fag packet calculation, it would be fair to look at this way.

 

Saints get another 15 points = 100% certain of automatic promotion

Saints get another 14 points = 99% certain of automatic promotion

Saints get another 13 points = 98% certain of automatic promotion

Saints get another 12 points = 92% certain of automatic promotion

Saints get another 11 points = 80% certain of automatic promotion

Saints get another 10 ponts = 70% certain of automatic promotion

Saints get another 9 points = 60% certain of automatic promotion

Saints get another 8 points = 35% certain of automatic promotion

Saints get another 7 points = 20% certain of automatic promotion

Saints get another 6 points = 10% certain of automatic promotion

Saints get less than 5 pts = virtually 0% chance of automatic promotion

 

I might try and work these numbers out more thoroughly if I can be @rsed, but they won't be way, way off.

Edited by SaintBobby
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The9

The9

Posted
Posted

Saints get another 9 points = 60% certain of automatic promotion

Saints get another 8 points = 35% certain of automatic promotion

 

I might try and work these numbers out more thoroughly if I can be @rsed, but they won't be way, way off.

 

I like your approach, but even as an estimate, there's no way the difference between 8 and 9 points will be such a drop off of 25% in likelihood of going up - and I'd be VERY surprised if only getting 9 points would be enough to stay ahead of Huddersfield AND Peterborough 60% of the time, far too many points dropped.

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Thedelldays

Thedelldays

Posted
Posted
On 28th December we beat Huddersfield 4-1, including that game we have taken 46 points from 20 games. If we continue to take points at that rate 2.3 per game we will be 90 points, Huddersfield can get a maximum of 89 points. Our games in hand are now a massive breathing space, as is our goal difference. we now need 15 points from 7 games and nobody can catch us. As no team will go to the end of the season without drawing one or two games we are well and truly now in the driving seat.

 

and what is odd..hudders have remained unbeaten since then...for nearly half a season and it probably wont be enough...harsh world

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Matthew Le God

Matthew Le God

Posted
Posted

We do need 15 points from here to be copper-bottomed certain

 

Saints get another 15 points = 100% certain of automatic promotion

 

Well, that isn't correct. Saints can still miss out on promotion if they get 15 points and if Huddersfield get 15 points along with a goal difference swing. So it is not 100%.

 

Mathematically Saints need 16 more points to guarantee promotion as things stand tonight.

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Leslie Charteris

Leslie Charteris

Posted
Posted
Well, that isn't correct. Saints can still miss out on promotion if they get 15 points and if Huddersfield get 15 points along with a goal difference swing. So it is not 100%.

 

Mathematically Saints need 16 more points to guarantee promotion as things stand tonight.

 

Udders would need to improve their goal difference by 15 to equal ours, so, pedantically, 15 points will not guarantee an automatic promotion place, but it's as near a racing certainty as you'll get. 12 or 13 points will probably do it, but let's keep winning - it's a nice feeling and not one I've had too often over the last 40 years or so.

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Matthew Le God

Matthew Le God

Posted
Posted (edited)
Udders would need to improve their goal difference by 15 to equal ours, so, pedantically, 15 points will not guarantee an automatic promotion place, but it's as near a racing certainty as you'll get.

 

A swing doesn't need to be all one way. Saints goal difference getting worse by 7 goals in 7 games and Hudderfield's getting better by 8 goals in 5 games, leads to a 15 goal swing. So Huddersfield don't as you say need to improve their goal difference by 15 goals to overtake in that eventuality.

 

(not that this matters as Saints should do it on points anyway ;))

Edited by Matthew Le God
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Leslie Charteris

Leslie Charteris

Posted
Posted
A swing doesn't need to be all one way. Saints goal difference getting worse by 7 goals in 7 games and Hudderfield's getting better by 8 goals in 5 games, leads to a 15 goal swing. So Huddersfield don't as you say need to improve their goal difference by 15 goals to overtake in that eventuality.

 

(not that this matters as Saints should do it on points anyway ;))

 

So where's your money, Saints or Udders? Barring a catastrophic loss of form, it has to be with us! COYR! :nod:

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SaintBobby

SaintBobby

Posted
Posted (edited)
Well, that isn't correct. Saints can still miss out on promotion if they get 15 points and if Huddersfield get 15 points along with a goal difference swing. So it is not 100%.

 

Mathematically Saints need 16 more points to guarantee promotion as things stand tonight.

 

I rounded to the nearest whole number.

 

Fifteen points is probably about 99.95%

 

The goal difference being overhauled is so monumentally unlikely. At that point, you might as well start factoring in the chance that we end up getting deducted 3 points, or whatever, for fielding an ineligible player etc. So, not even 16 points would be nailed on because if we didn't complete the paperwork around Dale Stephens' transfer, for example, we might get a points penalty.

Edited by SaintBobby
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SaintBobby

SaintBobby

Posted
Posted (edited)
I like your approach, but even as an estimate, there's no way the difference between 8 and 9 points will be such a drop off of 25% in likelihood of going up - and I'd be VERY surprised if only getting 9 points would be enough to stay ahead of Huddersfield AND Peterborough 60% of the time, far too many points dropped.

 

You might be right about the drop off of 25%, but not by much.

 

Basically the big fluctuations happen between 7 and 11 points. Less than seven and it's almost impossible. More than 11 and it's almost certain. The difference in our chances, for example, between us picking up 2 points for the rest of the season and picking up 3 points is about 0.001%. We're almost certainly stuffed in both cases, although there is the tiniest of chances that 3 points would be enough but 2 wouldn't be.

 

I think the biggest drop off in our chances is between 8 and 9 points (although I accept that it might not be quite as high as a 25% drop)

 

If we retain the assumption that our GD is going to hold up (and I've made this very fair assumption through out), then:

 

9 points is enough unless (a) Huddersfield finish their season with W 3 D 1 L 1 or better or (b) Peterborough end their season with a record of W 4 D 0 L 1 or better. I'd say the chance of (a) or (b) happening is around 60%, but maybe nearer 50% on reflection.

 

8 points is enough unless (a) Huddersfield finish their season with W 2 D 3 L 0 or better or (b) Peterborough end their season with a record of W 3 D 2 L 0 or better. This seems to me a lot, lot less promising. Odds against, about a 1 in 3 shot.

 

By 7 points or lower, you're clutching at straws, obviously. Both Huddersfield and Posh wld have to perform really poorly for us to keep 2nd.

 

At 10 points, we look likely to get promoted - although not certain. That would be fine unless (a) Huddersfield manage a run-in of W 3 D2 L 0 or better or (b) Posh manage a run of W 4 D 1 L 0 or better.This is close to ruling out Posh altogether.

 

By 11 points, we only need to worry about (a) Huddersfield managing W 4 D 0 L 1 or better or (b) Posh getting W 5 D 0 L 0.

 

By 12 points, we only need to worry about (a) Huddersfield managing W 4 D 1 L 0 or better or (b) again, Posh winning all 5 of games.

 

By 13 points, we only need to worry about Huddersfield winning all their matches and can ignore Posh. 14 points is almost identical (it just insulates us further against a weird GD swing against us)

Edited by SaintBobby
replaced "if" with "unless" in two places; change to 8 point criteria as a consequence
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Professor

Professor

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Posted

Brighton haven't lost at home since Sept when Orient beat them in the JPT but they haven't played either of the teams most likely to beat them, the 2nd and 3rd placed sides! Not that it matters as far as top spot is concerned, as Brighton only need 8 points out of 18 to be uncatchable but it does mean that people factoring in a defeat at Brighton for either us or Huddersfield in the 2nd place race, should be prepared for the opposite result as well. In every game Saints need to do as well as Huddersfield or better, always allowing that results do not go so bad as to let Peterborough back in the race.

 

Saint Bobby's assessment of chance is impressive and really interesting, but on the other hand we have to remember that this is not a game of roulette where random outcomes can only be assessed by laws of averages. In football, a good team can have a long string of wins, not because of chance but because they are better than the opponent teams, hence Brighton's 8 wins in March and Huddersfield's 20 F1 league games without defeat since they lost to Saints on 28 Dec. Until Huddersfield drop another 2 or 3 points from a draw or a defeat, which may or may not happen, Saints must assume that with 7 games to play, 15 points are needed for 2nd place.

 

I expect Adkins to be taking the same line and on that basis he will always pick the best team and substitutes that he has available, game by game. He won't rest a player to save him for the next game but he will rest injuries that might flare up during a game. That I think is why he had Lallana on the bench on Saturday showing he will use an injured player as a sub if the need is there and it would strengthen the team.

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The9

The9

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Posted
You might be right about the drop off of 25%, but not by much.

 

Basically the big fluctuations happen between 7 and 11 points. Less than seven and it's almost impossible. More than 11 and it's almost certain. The difference in our chances, for example, between us picking up 2 points for the rest of the season and picking up 3 points is about 0.001%. We're almost certainly stuffed in both cases, although there is the tiniest of chances that 3 points would be enough but 2 wouldn't be.

 

I think the biggest drop off in our chances is between 8 and 9 points (although I accept that it might not be quite as high as a 25% drop)

 

If we retain the assumption that our GD is going to hold up (and I've made this very fair assumption through out), then:

 

9 points is enough if (a) Huddersfield finish their season with W 3 D 1 L 1 or better or (b) Peterborough end their season with a record of W 4 D 0 L 1 or better. I'd say the chance of (a) or (b) happening is around 60%, but maybe nearer 50% on reflection.

 

8 points is enough if (a) Huddersfield finish their season with W 2 D 2 L 1 or better or (b) Peterborough end their season with a record of W 3 D 1 L 1 or better. This seems to me a lot, lot less promising. Odds against, about a 1 in 3 shot.

 

By 7 points or lower, you're clutching at straws, obviously. Both Huddersfield and Posh wld have to perform really poorly for us to keep 2nd.

 

At 10 points, we look likely to get promoted - although not certain. That would be fine unless (a) Huddersfield manage a run-in of W 3 D2 L 0 or better or (b) Posh manage a run of W 4 D 1 L 0 or better.This is close to ruling out Posh altogether.

 

By 11 points, we only need to worry about (a) Huddersfield managing W 4 D 0 L 1 or better or (b) Posh getting W 5 D 0 L 0.

 

By 12 points, we only need to worry about (a) Huddersfield managing W 4 D 1 L 0 or better or (b) again, Posh winning all 5 of games.

 

By 13 points, we only need to worry about Huddersfield winning all their matches and can ignore Posh. 14 points is almost identical (it just insulates us further against a weird GD swing against us)

 

I can kind of see where you're going with it, part of the drop off is down to the downright unlikelihood of teams achieving certain points totals (mostly due to having to draw exactly two games) ? I think...

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Lighthouse

Lighthouse

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Posted
A swing doesn't need to be all one way. Saints goal difference getting worse by 7 goals in 7 games and Hudderfield's getting better by 8 goals in 5 games, leads to a 15 goal swing. So Huddersfield don't as you say need to improve their goal difference by 15 goals to overtake in that eventuality.

 

(not that this matters as Saints should do it on points anyway ;))

 

To get 15 points and still drop goal difference we'd need 5 wins and 2 defeats. Our goal difference would go up by at least 5 with the wins, so we'd then have to lose the other 2 games 6-0. Highly unlikely.

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SaintBobby

SaintBobby

Posted
Posted
I can kind of see where you're going with it, part of the drop off is down to the downright unlikelihood of teams achieving certain points totals (mostly due to having to draw exactly two games) ? I think...

 

There's an element of that. For example, it's impossible for Hudd or Posh to get exactly 14 points.

 

But mainly it's about a range of possible outcomes,

 

I agree you shouldn't treat football like roulette or coin flipping, but here goes anyway....

 

There's only one way our opponents can get 15 points. A sequence of WWWWW. There's loads of ways they can get 9 points...WWWLL or WWLWL or WLWLW or WLLWW etc etc. This is a simplification, but not an unfair one.

 

It's a bit like tossing a coin 100 times. You're likely to get somewhere around about 50 heads and fifty tails. Not say a 95-5 split or a 100-0 split. You would almost certain to be in the range from 35-65 to 65-35 in fact.

 

Same logic applies here really.

 

 

So both our opponents are pretty likely to get somewhere around 8 to 11 points. 0 is possible. 15 is possible. But 8, 9, 10 or 11 are each much more likely.

 

Once you factor in skill, not just luck (Hudds and Posh are good teams, so in usual circumstances are a better bet to win than lose), they are likely to be at the higher end of this spectrum. But against that, they have tough looking run ins.

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Whitey Grandad

Whitey Grandad

Posted
Posted
A swing doesn't need to be all one way. Saints goal difference getting worse by 7 goals in 7 games and Hudderfield's getting better by 8 goals in 5 games, leads to a 15 goal swing. So Huddersfield don't as you say need to improve their goal difference by 15 goals to overtake in that eventuality.

 

(not that this matters as Saints should do it on points anyway ;))

 

For us to lose 5 goals of difference in 7 games whilst winning 5 of them 1-0 we would have to lose the other two by 6 goals each, but Huddersfield could quite easily win all 5 and improve their difference by 8. Let's just win the next two and then take another look.

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Doctoroncall

Doctoroncall

Posted
Posted
A swing doesn't need to be all one way. Saints goal difference getting worse by 7 goals in 7 games and Hudderfield's getting better by 8 goals in 5 games, leads to a 15 goal swing. So Huddersfield don't as you say need to improve their goal difference by 15 goals to overtake in that eventuality.

 

(not that this matters as Saints should do it on points anyway ;))

 

To get to 15 points Saints need to win five (therefore improving our GD) and lose two (detrimental effect to GD) or win four and draw three, with the GD only going up. Saints have never lost by more than tw goals this season.

 

For a minimum 15 goal swing, Huddersfield will need to win their remaining games by at least a three goal margin.

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