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EU referendum


Wade Garrett

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I wonder who Brexit is actually for. Should the vote be to leave, the SNP have already declared their intention to demand independence, and with their electoral presence now there's precious little that could stop them. Wales and Northern Ireland are also substantial beneficiaries of EU funding arrangements, including the ERDF, and are likely to vote heavily to remain. So Brexit is really Eexit, as the vote to leave will precipitate a constitutional crisis with the Scots walking off.

 

The Little Englanders on here will end up being just that.

 

The Scots will never vote for independence, in my opinion.

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What a load of ******. Only the UK government can decide to hold a refurendum, there is no way the tories would hold another one, in or out of Europe. What a few SNP MPs think is irrelivant.

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What a load of ******. Only the UK government can decide to hold a refurendum, there is no way the tories would hold another one, in or out of Europe. What a few SNP MPs think is irrelivant.

 

Not so sure if they got rid of Scotland they could possibly rule for ever in England as they only have one seat in Scotland

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What a load of ******. Only the UK government can decide to hold a refurendum, there is no way the tories would hold another one, in or out of Europe. What a few SNP MPs think is irrelivant.

 

Anyway the SNP's policy is not Brexit triggers another vote. They're being very careful with their words . The only thing that will trigger another indi vote is when they think they'll win it . Ruth Davidson challenged Krankie to put a specific policy in their manifesto that in the event of Brexit they will demand another vote and she refused to do so. They know it's a vote loser . I suggest anyone who thinks Brexit will lead to the breakup of the U.K should watch a re run of QT from Dundee ( a yes city). The audience were pretty emphatic that they knew Brexit was a possibility when they voted and seemed to turn against the snp for trying to stir it up . I know one audience doesn't represent the Scottish people , but they did shock me .

 

Ask yourself this ; The SNP claim the EU would have an indi Scotland at a heartbeat , why then, are they not for Brexit with the RUK going of into the wider world and them joining the failing EUSSR? Because they know full well they'll lose another indi vote , even in the event of Brexit.

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Yep, spot on there.

 

(I agree with the rest of it too)

 

we are only seem to be having it because our incompetent PM decided to have one to placate the right wing of his party and to stop MPs and voters going to UKIP.

 

A few seconds thinking about this and the implications of it wouldn't go amiss. The only reason why UKIP came into existence was to force a referendum on Europe, much like the Referendum Party before them. You're old enough like me to to have witnessed the broken promises of the various parties to hold a referendum over many, many years and you will recognise that the issue had torn apart the Conservative Party right back to Margaret Thatcher's time. UKIP only gained the momentum to become a political force to be reckoned with when they achieved the growing support of the electorate for their stance on the EU, so far from pouring scorn on Cameron for calling the referendum, he deserves some small recognition at least for being the leader of a party that finally granted them a say on the several treaty changes that have totally changed the basis of our membership of the European project we originally joined.

 

It would surely be a poor reflection on our democracy that the concerns of a party that gained such overwhelming support in the European elections were ignored. Yes, Cameron was forced into promising a referendum because he feared that if he didn't the Conservative Party would suffer the consequences at the election, but equally the time had come to lance the boil that the European issue had become once and for all. Had there been a referendum at the time of Maastricht, then they might have got away with not holding one now. But it was totally wrong to have allowed so many changes in that and subsequent treaties without recourse to allowing the electorate to endorse them.

 

Where I think Cameron should be called incompetent, is in not being tougher in his stance on the reforms we demanded. It was probably as obvious to our lords and masters in Brussels as it was to most cynics here, that however little Cameron was offered, he would return claiming that acceptable concessions had been achieved and that he could call the referendum recommending that we stay in the EU. Had he had more balls, he would have negotiated from a position of greater strength by stating categorically that if the reforms and concessions we demanded were not forthcoming, then he would campaign for us to leave, and mean it. As it is, he is seen as weak and vacillating and he has weakened the position of the remain campaign in the eyes of many of the electorate.

 

Whether the EU hierarchy realised that the implications of our referendum might result in the growing dissatisfaction of other members and calls for them to have their own referenda, I don't know. Despite all the bravado they are showing in Brussels, there is a very real possibility that if we voted to leave, then others could follow and that the EU could collapse. Any possibility of our returning to a reformed EU having left, have been ruled out categorically, although it would seem to be an option that made some sense to all concerned.

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According to the little propaganda leaflet dropping onto peoples' doorsteps currently, there are several mentions that we will be leaving Europe.

 

Just to put the record straight, we will not be leaving Europe, only the EU. I suspect that some psycho-babble expert has suggested that Europe has positive connotations to many, whereas the EU is increasingly loathed by a significant portion of the electorate, so that suggesting that we will be leaving Europe will be rejected by the sub-conscious mind of many.

 

The remain lot must have been upset to have lost the opportunity to have a simple yes or no vote, where again the yes position has a stronger psychological pull, therefore they are having to explore other options which might gain them a vital percentage point or two. I trust that when it comes to the televised debates, somebody will pull them up on this, as to claim that we might be voting to alter our very geographical place in the World is really swivel-eyed garbage.

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The remain lot must have been upset .

 

The remain lot, the lefties, the Muslims. Guess what? the world isnt divided into contiguous uniform 'lots'. Even within groups inclined the same way individual people have different ideas, opinions and beliefs; act in different ways and may or may not endorse what other people do. Who knew? Life is so confusing huh? so much better to line everything up neatly so Wes can blast them all at the same time with a good old blunderbuss of common sense.

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According to the little propaganda leaflet dropping onto peoples' doorsteps currently, there are several mentions that we will be leaving Europe.

 

Just to put the record straight, we will not be leaving Europe, only the EU. I suspect that some psycho-babble expert has suggested that Europe has positive connotations to many, whereas the EU is increasingly loathed by a significant portion of the electorate, so that suggesting that we will be leaving Europe will be rejected by the sub-conscious mind of many.

 

The remain lot must have been upset to have lost the opportunity to have a simple yes or no vote, where again the yes position has a stronger psychological pull, therefore they are having to explore other options which might gain them a vital percentage point or two. I trust that when it comes to the televised debates, somebody will pull them up on this, as to claim that we might be voting to alter our very geographical place in the World is really swivel-eyed garbage.

 

You really have become a weird little conspiracy theorist.

 

It's a perfectly practical thing to say that we're leaving Europe because the consequences of a no vote will be much more widely felt than in the Brexiteers' fanciful idea of an empowered Westminster with everything else carrying on swimmingly.

 

I'm puzzled by your paranoia. So could you explain how our EU membership has affected you personally?

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Well Wes, being a helpful type and knowing how determined you are to seek the truth I'll grant you another opportunity to comment on how you think your man performed before a house committee in parliment last week:

 

Boris Johnson v Andrew Tyrie on EU coffin and lorry claims - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35887003

 

For those who have yet to see this, first off on this so called "eurocoffin" nonsense Boris appears to confuse what was an obscure Council of Europe matter with the EU - two quite separate organisations by the way. Undeterred by this characteristic blunder, your man then goes on to complain that the EU is apparently blocking his efforts to introduce new style lorry cabs that he - in his expert opinion - feels might improve road safty. When it is pointed out to him that such decisions MUST be agreed to at EU level (the Mayor of London banning trucks he doesn't approve of would cause chaos and represent a serious restraint of trade) Boris blames Swedish and French instransigence - only to be informed that the Swedes have nothing to do with it! He also then goes on to ignore the obvious point here that it is only via the form of international regulation offered by transborder organisations (such as the EU for example) that the improvements he is arguing for might be widely introduced - i.e. if we left the EU we would have next to no influence on international vehicle design.

 

I'll be generous and rate that as a 3 out of 10 performance - which is about two more methinks than he earned when Andrew Marr grilled him the other week.

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So now you want us to accept the conclusions of an obscure South African financial wealth management company who specialise in African markets over much more established and respected ones. Well done the express researchers.

 

Dont forget the money! We will all be £20,000 better off if we leave!

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So now you want us to accept the conclusions...

 

Am I missing something here?

 

an obscure South African financial wealth management company

 

Absolutely. We don't want to hear from an organisation based outside the EU about what it's like doing business outside the EU during a debate about what it's like to be based outside the EU and doing business outside the EU, do we?

 

company who specialise in African markets

 

Absolutely. We definitely don't want to be thinking about doing any business in the region that has shown the world's highest economic growth over the past ten years, and is forecast to achieve the highest economic growth in the next ten years.

Edited by hutch
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According to the little propaganda leaflet dropping onto peoples' doorsteps currently, there are several mentions that we will be leaving Europe.

 

Just to put the record straight, we will not be leaving Europe, only the EU. I suspect that some psycho-babble expert has suggested that Europe has positive connotations to many, whereas the EU is increasingly loathed by a significant portion of the electorate, so that suggesting that we will be leaving Europe will be rejected by the sub-conscious mind of many.

 

The remain lot must have been upset to have lost the opportunity to have a simple yes or no vote, where again the yes position has a stronger psychological pull, therefore they are having to explore other options which might gain them a vital percentage point or two. I trust that when it comes to the televised debates, somebody will pull them up on this, as to claim that we might be voting to alter our very geographical place in the World is really swivel-eyed garbage.

 

Exactly. They know that making arguments for the institutions of Brussels/Strasbourg, increasing centralisation, the commission, TTIP etc (whatever we're actually voting on) has become increasingly toxic amoungst much of the population so they try and manipulate people by conjuring up positive feelings about Europe itself which of course most people have. Sad thing is i think it is working to an extent- whenever i speak to someone why they want to stay in, a good chunk of the time they'll talk about 'loving Europe' as opposed to the EU.

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I've just recieved a direct mail shot from the 'Leave EU' organisation soliciting my vote in the coming referendum. There is nothing very new in it worth debating on here methinks, but it does go to show how well funded this campaign is.

 

Me too. Personally addressed in an envelope and paid for postage, no cheapo flyer through the door. Wonder who is funding them.

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Me too. Personally addressed in an envelope and paid for postage, no cheapo flyer through the door. Wonder who is funding them.

 

Arron Banks has been the main financial backer in Leave.EU. Multi millionaire, made a lot in insurance.

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I've just recieved a direct mail shot from the 'Leave EU' organisation soliciting my vote in the coming referendum. There is nothing very new in it worth debating on here methinks, but it does go to show how well funded this campaign is.

 

I haven't received one. Would that be because they think I'm a lost cause?

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since 2006, 500 people a day have come to the UK from the EU alone.

that is 1.6 million people.

 

in the last two years, levels of migration from the EU have hit record levels and the numbers are expected to rise significantly in the coming years

Edited by Batman
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Am I missing something here?

 

 

 

Absolutely. We don't want to hear from an organisation based outside the EU about what it's like doing business outside the EU during a debate about what it's like to be based outside the EU and doing business outside the EU, do we?

 

 

 

Absolutely. We definitely don't want to be thinking about doing any business in the region that has shown the world's highest economic growth over the past ten years, and is forecast to achieve the highest economic growth in the next ten years.

 

You write that as if we don't already have trade links with Africa. The UK has long gone beyond "thinking about" trading with that region and, er, actually is.

 

It's a common theme with the our persuasion that leaving the EU will suddenly open up all these new markets that we were somehow being stopped from trading with. All leaving will do is make us have to start anew with this countries and rewrite trade deals rather than just carry on, like, trading with them.

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You write that as if we don't already have trade links with Africa. The UK has long gone beyond "thinking about" trading with that region and, er, actually is.

 

It's a common theme with the our persuasion that leaving the EU will suddenly open up all these new markets that we were somehow being stopped from trading with. All leaving will do is make us have to start anew with this countries and rewrite trade deals rather than just carry on, like, trading with them.

That is not the point that moonraker was making, nor was it the one that I responded to.

 

But to a certain extent you're right. How Britain trades with Africa (amongst others), now and in the future, should be part of the stay/leave equation.

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since 2006, 500 people a day have come to the UK from the EU alone.

that is 1.6 million people.

 

in the last two years, levels of migration from the EU have hit record levels and the numbers are expected to rise significantly in the coming years

 

Is that net of gross?

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That is not the point that moonraker was making, nor was it the one that I responded to.

 

But to a certain extent you're right. How Britain trades with Africa (amongst others), now and in the future, should be part of the stay/leave equation.

 

You are right it was not my point, neither did you get it, I was responding to a link to Brexit supporting analysis report from a little known South African company, and questioning its overall relevance in the face of a far greater number such reports from more respected or at least recognised company's that conclude the exact opposite.

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You are right it was not my point, neither did you get it, I was responding to a link to Brexit supporting analysis report from a little known South African company, and questioning its overall relevance in the face of a far greater number such reports from more respected or at least recognised company's that conclude the exact opposite.

I got it thanks

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Interesting fact from Gus O'Donnell (former chief secretary to Blair) in the Guardian today.

 

The only country to vote to leave the EU so far has been Greenland, which has the population of Croydon, and whose economy is all about fish. It took Greenlanders and the EU not two years, as allowed by the Lisbon Treaty, but three. Just to deal with fish and a few people.

 

Add that to the fact that Canada, the great 'model' for Brexiters like BoJo, STILL doesn't have a treaty with the EU after seven years of negotiation. Canada has only about half the population of the UK and already has a huge trading partner on its doorstep.

 

This whole treaty thing is not something Brexiters are very good at. Maybe, instead of adopting their silly Pollyanna stance, they might actually address how the UK will struggle on in the decade or so that it is outside agreed treaties with its largest trading partner, and as individual EU states and companies take advantage of Brexit by snapping up market share of UK companies presently trading in the EU.

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The Gus O'Donnell intervention has posed some very difficult questions for Brexit. On the Today programme it was suggested by a contributor that the EU would be in no hurry to conclude exit negotiations especially when Germany and France have elections next year, and the EU itself wont want to be seen to be easy to leave, maybe unfair but realistic. Until we are completely uncoupled from the EU, 5 – 10 years seems fair we will be subject to extant, amended and new rules and regulations with no say in their framing. Any savings as a result of freedom from ‘EU Red Tape’ can not be realised for minimum of 5 years and indeed in terms of manufacturing trade we will have to comply in full with EU regs. I personally doubt their will be any worthwhile net gain on the UK PLC bottom line purely as result of leaving the EU.

I sort of get those who are ideologically opposed to the EU, I also understand those whose frustrations leads them to question the EU. What I struggle with is the inability of those who want to leave but time and time again fail to address the genuine concerns of leaving, raised by raft of informed and knowledgeable people and organisations. The stock answers, in no particular order are:

• Its scaremongering

• Its government propaganda

• They are on the gravy train

• That’s not what, some bloke from somewhere possibly important says!

• I/we don’t agree

• Depending on the specific issue, we can be like ‘Norway, Switzerland, Canada’ (note never like all of them at the same time!)

• Wait till Turkey joins

• Were all doomed!

None of which provides answers to the key questions: ‘How will the UK mitigate the risks of leaving the EU in respect of this forecast in the short medium and long term’ ‘Why is the forecast wrong’ ‘What would you we do instead of what we do now’ and ‘How will things be different outside the EU’.

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I personally don't think staying in the EU because it's difficult to leave and may take five years should be a factor when making the decision. We should be considering how things will be in the long term not in the very immediate future. I get why people want to stay but not the argument that it's hard to leave the club so we shouldn't bother.

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I’m not arguing, that the difficulty of leaving is the defining factor for staying. My point is Brexit have failed to address any direct questions about, short medium or long term outcomes. While they somewhat disingenuously brand the stay campaign as project fear, the Brexit campaign twin approach is ‘it will be better out, just trust us’ and ‘we can do better on our own than without a load of meddling eurocrats’ there is no real context and little imperial evidence to justify either claim. The additional short term (5 0- 10 years) pain is just another issue Brexit are burying their heads in the sand over.

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Whilst this quote is from 2012 - I believe it is still relevant and a good insight into the longer term if we stay in

 

"My vision is one of political union because Europe needs to forge its own unique path. We need to become incrementally closer and closer, in all policy areas," the chancellor said. "Over a long process, we will transfer more powers to the [European] Commission, which will then handle what falls within the European remit like a government of Europe. That will require a strong parliament. A kind of second chamber, if you like, will be the council comprising the heads of [national] government."

"And finally, the supreme court will be the European court of justice. That could be what Europe's political union looks like in the future – some time in the future, as I say, and after a goodly number of interim stages." Angela Merkel

http://www.theguardian.com/wor...

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Whilst this quote is from 2012 - I believe it is still relevant and a good insight into the longer term if we stay in

 

"My vision is one of political union because Europe needs to forge its own unique path. We need to become incrementally closer and closer, in all policy areas," the chancellor said. "Over a long process, we will transfer more powers to the [European] Commission, which will then handle what falls within the European remit like a government of Europe. That will require a strong parliament. A kind of second chamber, if you like, will be the council comprising the heads of [national] government."

"And finally, the supreme court will be the European court of justice. That could be what Europe's political union looks like in the future – some time in the future, as I say, and after a goodly number of interim stages." Angela Merkel

http://www.theguardian.com/wor...

 

The timing of political statements is everything, Merkel is the consummate politician and the timing and context of this statement is crucial. With the rise of nationalist parties across Europe this vision is certainly becoming more blurred and I doubt she would say or indeed endorse the same thing today.

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I’m not arguing, that the difficulty of leaving is the defining factor for staying. My point is Brexit have failed to address any direct questions about, short medium or long term outcomes. While they somewhat disingenuously brand the stay campaign as project fear, the Brexit campaign twin approach is ‘it will be better out, just trust us’ and ‘we can do better on our own than without a load of meddling eurocrats’ there is no real context and little imperial evidence to justify either claim. The additional short term (5 0- 10 years) pain is just another issue Brexit are burying their heads in the sand over.

We managed to work perfectly fine independently up to 1975. It will work pretty much the same as life from ... To 1975.

 

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

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Whilst this quote is from 2012 - I believe it is still relevant and a good insight into the longer term if we stay in

 

"My vision is one of political union because Europe needs to forge its own unique path. We need to become incrementally closer and closer, in all policy areas," the chancellor said. "Over a long process, we will transfer more powers to the [European] Commission, which will then handle what falls within the European remit like a government of Europe. That will require a strong parliament. A kind of second chamber, if you like, will be the council comprising the heads of [national] government."

"And finally, the supreme court will be the European court of justice. That could be what Europe's political union looks like in the future – some time in the future, as I say, and after a goodly number of interim stages." Angela Merkel

http://www.theguardian.com/wor...

 

The timing of political statements is everything, Merkel is the consummate politician and the timing and context of this statement is crucial. With the rise of nationalist parties across Europe this vision is certainly becoming more blurred and I doubt she would say or indeed endorse the same thing today.

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We managed to work perfectly fine independently up to 1975. It will work pretty much the same as life from ... To 1975.

 

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

 

Did we? 2 World Wars and one lost Empire!, 1920,s were pretty tuff, as was the period post the napolonic wars, the plague tears wernt to hot and as for the civil war, the endless scottish issues and Ireland, need I go on.

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Did we? 2 World Wars and one lost Empire!, 1920,s were pretty tuff, as was the period post the napolonic wars, the plague tears wernt to hot and as for the civil war, the endless scottish issues and Ireland, need I go on.

Sorry please explain what it was about the UK of GB & NI that caused the world wars and how would we have intervened had we been one giant superstate... And also plagues... Would we be better of or worse off now with visa access to our Isles?

 

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

Edited by Nolan
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Sorry please explain what it was about the UK of GB & NI that caused the world wars and how would we have intervened had we been one giant superstate... And also plagues... Would we be better of or worse off now with visa access to our Isles?

 

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

 

You have missed my point I did not claim we caused them although in the case of Ireland and all the troubles we can hardly blame anyone outside these Islands. You claimed we worked perfectly fine before 1975, my examples were just to illustrate that ‘perfectly’ might be a slight distortion of reality. Conversely are you intimating that all of our recent and /or current troubles such as they are can be laid at the feet of the EU: Blair/Bush alliance, North Korean threats, Islamist terrorism, world financial failure? I would argue that if a strong organsiation like the EU had existed after WWI, WWII would almost certainly have been avoided.

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I think it might be EU rules that stop us subsidising the steel industry like China do. Probably deemed unfair to steel companies in Poland or something.

 

Yep, just clarifying it now on LBC.

It is against EU rules to subsidise a particular industry as it would be to the detriment of a partner in the EU

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Whilst this quote is from 2012 - I believe it is still relevant and a good insight into the longer term if we stay in

 

"My vision is one of political union because Europe needs to forge its own unique path. We need to become incrementally closer and closer, in all policy areas," the chancellor said. "Over a long process, we will transfer more powers to the [European] Commission, which will then handle what falls within the European remit like a government of Europe. That will require a strong parliament. A kind of second chamber, if you like, will be the council comprising the heads of [national] government."

"And finally, the supreme court will be the European court of justice. That could be what Europe's political union looks like in the future – some time in the future, as I say, and after a goodly number of interim stages." Angela Merkel

http://www.theguardian.com/wor...

 

Two more interesting quotes , one from Jean Monnett a founding father of the EU;

 

"Europe's nations should be guided towards the super state without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps, each disguised as having an economic purpose, but which will eventually and irreversibly lead to federation."

 

And one from Ken Clarke

 

" I look forward to the day when the Westminster parliament is just a council chamber in Europe"

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Yep, just clarifying it now on LBC.

It is against EU rules to subsidise a particular industry as it would be to the detriment of a partner in the EU

 

So not the same as nationalising then. Not to allow government subsidies makes sense not only within the EU but outside. The history of subsidised industries is pretty poor, most eventually fail as they become reliant on the subsidies and neglect running the business efficiently and effectively. If you want the most extreme examples of subsidised industries and failure look no further than the old USSR. The WTO also prohibits government subsidies where the subsidies are contingent, whether solely or as one of several other conditions, upon the use of domestic over imported goods. So even without the EU the government could not subsidise the steel industry to counter cheap imports.

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Two more interesting quotes , one from Jean Monnett a founding father of the EU;

 

"Europe's nations should be guided towards the super state without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps, each disguised as having an economic purpose, but which will eventually and irreversibly lead to federation."

 

"

Quoting some one who dies nearly 40 years ago, very relevent.

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The Greatest Britain of all Time was also in favour, mind you he did die over 50 years ago.

 

Winston Churchill, a former army officer, war reporter and British Prime Minister

(1940-45 and 1951-55), was one of the first to call for the creation of a

‘United States of Europe’. Following the Second World War, he was convinced

that only a united Europe could guarantee peace. His aim was to eliminate the

European ills of nationalism and war-mongering once and for all.

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