Play Off Chase

[Hodgey]

Can see Wrexham winning both home games - which means any slip ups from us next two will leave us quite a bit to do. I don’t see us winning at Wrexham but we can’t lose, I think we’ll need to rely on Hull or even Borough imploding, Millwall look solid. Hopefully when we play Cov they will have some breathing space and play poorly.

Despite the 5-0 we are still not clinical and often switch off for a goal, we’ll need to change that in this next batch of games as we play better teams who won’t let us get away with it.

[saintant]

As the remaining matches get less and less I reckon nerves will start to kick in big time because of the magnitude of what is at stake. It'll be all about which sides deal best with the pressure. We have a side with a fair few players who have experienced the run-in to the play-offs before so that may work in our favour. Right now it looks as though it's going down to the wire. It's made for an exciting season because at one stage we looked to be out of contention but we've now built up some momentum with 20 points out of 24.

[saintant]

4 hours ago, Baird of the land said:

Their last 2 games are Coventry and Middlesbrough, better hope the automatic race goes to the wire, otherwise those games become easier.

They'll likely be battling to be champions so won't ease off the gas.

[Saint Pete]

There's still around a quarter of the season to go, so a lot can happen. We're fixated on Wrexham at the moment as the team above us but it's very possible that the likes of Hull will have a poor run in that lets in someone else. The positive in this round of matches is we have slightly more breathing space versus a few of the teams below us when it was so tight before. Obviously matches against the teams around us will be crucial. We just need to focus on ourselves and keep picking up wins like we are at currently.

[SouSaint]

3 hours ago, SNSUN said:

There's also potentially the loss of players we have now if we don't go up. Scienza, Jander, THB, Charles possibly, all will have admirers over the summer and we'd be back to trying to replace them. Maybe even one two others. I wouldn't bet against SR cashing in, we know what they're like. 

None of the players you name are PL standard which shows how far off that level we are. 

[Willo of Whiteley]

All the teams will be taking points off each other, it’s far from over for everyone.

Get the popcorn out!

[Cabrone]

Feels a bit like 2 seasons ago except back then we were chasing down top 2 rather than playoffs. We went on a huge unbeaten run, got into position to break through and promptly bottled it ending up in playoffs. 

IMO 75 is the minimum and we have some tricky fixtures left. It's on a knife edge.

[die Mannyschaft]

Saints have the more difficult run in. Ipswich hull and Millwall we cant catch only on paper.  Some needs to beat Wrexham and don't think that's possible 

[ant]

It's not a scientific way to look at it, but Tonda's PPG now sits at 1.86. If that continued to the end of the season, we'd be looking at ~73 points.

Wrexham's PPG projects ~74.

There's inherent assumptions (not least that our past indicates our future), but given the tricky period around Christmas our figure tends more towards 'realistic' than 'fantasy'.

Ultimately, I guess I'm just saying it's looking close but doable. Especially with Wrexham away still to come.

[BARCELONASAINT]

Personally I think we will fall short of the top 6 places, the damage was done earlier in the season leaving us with too much ground to make up and the home game against Charlton just compounded things.

We don't have a lethal front line, Stewart we have been nursing all season to try and make sure he gets minutes (he's decent when he's available) Larin has some good attributes but he is not a lethal striker and they are who we are relying on up front. Thankfully other players are chipping in with goals but you really need your strikers at this stage of the season to be firing on all cylinders and ours are not!

[JohnnyShearer2.0]

10 hours ago, SouSaint said:

None of the players you name are PL standard which shows how far off that level we are. 

So you dont think Jander or Scienza could step up?

Disagree. Scienza has stepped up every time hes moved and Jander could easily be looked at by Bundesliga 1 clubs.

[BARCELONASAINT]

4 minutes ago, JohnnyShearer2.0 said:

So you dont think Jander or Scienza could step up?

Disagree. Scienza has stepped up every time hes moved and Jander could easily be looked at by Bundesliga 1 clubs.

You won't find a bigger fan off Scienza than me, he is absolutely the heartbeat of this Saints side and his rise from the leagues he has come from is quite unbelievable. The gap between Premier league and Championship is huge and i do wonder if Leo could hold his own in what is a very brutal league. My one concern about his ability to step up is he is a bit lightweight. He has all the skill in the world but he gets knocked off the ball a lot (yes like Grealish he draws fouls) and his shots are often very weak.

I think he would do very well in La Liga, Italy and France.

I wouldn't deny Leo a chance to play Premier League football if not for us then someone else because his story is what every kid out there would love and it just shows kids not to give up on their dream.

[Toussaint]

25 minutes ago, JohnnyShearer2.0 said:

So you dont think Jander or Scienza could step up?

Disagree. Scienza has stepped up every time hes moved and Jander could easily be looked at by Bundesliga 1 clubs.

Jander yes, Scienza , I really don’t think so, next week at Fulham will give us an indication. 

[die Mannyschaft]

11 hours ago, saintant said:

As the remaining matches get less and less I reckon nerves will start to kick in big time because of the magnitude of what is at stake. It'll be all about which sides deal best with the pressure. We have a side with a fair few players who have experienced the run-in to the play-offs before so that may work in our favour. Right now it looks as though it's going down to the wire. It's made for an exciting season because at one stage we looked to be out of contention but we've now built up some momentum with 20 points out of 24.

It will go down to the Preston away matches for Saints,  I reckon we would need to win that to get 6th by 1 point. Providing we win at least another 7 games 

[die Mannyschaft]

18 minutes ago, Toussaint said:

Jander yes, Scienza , I really don’t think so, next week at Fulham will give us an indication. 

We play a style of football that restrict creativity so players can really develop to max at Saints. That's why teams come in fir our best players they can see potential and how to move them on to next level.

[Willo of Whiteley]

1 hour ago, JohnnyShearer2.0 said:

So you dont think Jander or Scienza could step up?

Disagree. Scienza has stepped up every time hes moved and Jander could easily be looked at by Bundesliga 1 clubs.

Scienza and Jander possibly.

Fellows I would legit sell. Excellent at running to the byline and doing very little with it.

[Behind Enemy Lines]

16 hours ago, pingpong said:

Those 3 points that bazunu got us on day 1 could prove to be more important than we ever realised... Key to the city if we get promoted?

You’re just being silly now Gav. You know you’d drop the key down a drain when it’s handed to you. 

[JohnnyShearer2.0]

3 hours ago, BARCELONASAINT said:

You won't find a bigger fan off Scienza than me, he is absolutely the heartbeat of this Saints side and his rise from the leagues he has come from is quite unbelievable. The gap between Premier league and Championship is huge and i do wonder if Leo could hold his own in what is a very brutal league. My one concern about his ability to step up is he is a bit lightweight. He has all the skill in the world but he gets knocked off the ball a lot (yes like Grealish he draws fouls) and his shots are often very weak.

I think he would do very well in La Liga, Italy and France.

I wouldn't deny Leo a chance to play Premier League football if not for us then someone else because his story is what every kid out there would love and it just shows kids not to give up on their dream.

Fair one.

If Saints dont go up, can definitely see a promoted side going in for him at the very least.

 

[Football Special]

5 hours ago, die Mannyschaft said:

It will go down to the Preston away matches for Saints,  I reckon we would need to win that to get 6th by 1 point. Providing we win at least another 7 games 

I agree *if* we do it will go down to the last game , could be a good excuse to combine a bank holiday weekend in Blackpool with Preston away , big ticket allocation etc 

[Roo1976]

14 hours ago, BARCELONASAINT said:

Personally I think we will fall short of the top 6 places, the damage was done earlier in the season leaving us with too much ground to make up and the home game against Charlton just compounded things.

We don't have a lethal front line, Stewart we have been nursing all season to try and make sure he gets minutes (he's decent when he's available) Larin has some good attributes but he is not a lethal striker and they are who we are relying on up front. Thankfully other players are chipping in with goals but you really need your strikers at this stage of the season to be firing on all cylinders and ours are not!

we need our wingers to swap sides and get to the byeline and cross rather than come inside and pas the buck to someone else ,lets create rather than frustrate.

[StrangelyBrown]

On 24/02/2026 at 21:59, StrangelyBrown said:

7 wins from 12 needed. The hope is going to kill me

6 from 11 now... Starting to look more realistic! But the hope kills

[Jack]

It’s going to be tight. Was just looking at a 10 game form table, in that time we’ve caught up exactly 0 points on Wrexham and just 1 on Hull. Realistically it’s those we’re chasing. I actually think Hull are more likely to have a slump, they’ve been very lucky to win their last couple of games 

[Football Special]

3 hours ago, Jack said:

It’s going to be tight. Was just looking at a 10 game form table, in that time we’ve caught up exactly 0 points on Wrexham and just 1 on Hull. Realistically it’s those we’re chasing. I actually think Hull are more likely to have a slump, they’ve been very lucky to win their last couple of games 

I remember after the comeback at Leicester away we'd got within a point of the play offs, that Charlton home game really set us back unfortunately 

[Willo of Whiteley]

Birmingham for all the guff they’ve spouted in the last year are so unbelievably average.

[goodymatt]

8 point gap for Birmingham, think that might be them out of the race now.

[Andy Hill]

Agree - but it is Wrexhams to lose now  and with winnable fixtures ahead. 

[LeG]

So much is going to change for Hull over their next 3 games. They've been been massively getting away with it lately. 

We just have to keep doing our thing. It's fun to be the team who is putting the run together from outside the play offs. Lets see how all these teams cope with that pressure. 

 

[SaintBobby]

That away game at Wrexham is pretty mahoosive....

[Charlie Wayman]

14 hours ago, Jack said:

It’s going to be tight. Was just looking at a 10 game form table, in that time we’ve caught up exactly 0 points on Wrexham and just 1 on Hull. Realistically it’s those we’re chasing. I actually think Hull are more likely to have a slump, they’ve been very lucky to win their last couple of games 

That's the reality of our situation. All we can do is keep winning and hope that those two slip up on the run in. For both to do so is unlikely.

[CB Fry]

7 hours ago, SaintBobby said:

That away game at Wrexham is pretty mahoosive....

The script of the fucking Disney show is we beat them in their first match in the Championship. 

For the return match they have the chance to knock us out of the Play off race.....Hollywood ending

[BarberSaint]

1 hour ago, CB Fry said:

The script of the fucking Disney show is we beat them in their first match in the Championship. 

For the return match they have the chance to knock us out of the Play off race.....Hollywood ending

I think a more Hollywood ending is that we beat them again, sneak 6th while they get 5th and they beat us at Wembley in the last minute with a goal from that centre forward they have who we should/should never have signed. Tall chap. Can't think of his name for now; perhaps someone can come along and tell us.

[badgerx16]

19 minutes ago, BarberSaint said:

I think a more Hollywood ending is that we beat them again, sneak 6th while they get 5th and they beat us at Wembley in the last minute with a goal from that centre forward they have who we should/should never have signed. Tall chap. Can't think of his name for now; perhaps someone can come along and tell us.

Keiffer Sutherland ?

Edited 8 hours ago by badgerx16

[wild-saint]

On 28/02/2026 at 23:00, SouSaint said:

None of the players you name are PL standard which shows how far off that level we are. 

I guess we will have a better idea after the Fulham game on Sunday as to whether they can shine against better players.

[macca155]

Every week there are fewer permutations. Coventry, Middlesbrough, Millwall, and Ipswich are out of reach. I fear Hull could soon join them.

It really is a straight fight between Saints and Wrexham, unless Watford, Derby or Bristol City join the party.

Every game is crucial now .

Love this league

[igsey]

We play Fulham in the FA Cup on Sunday, and then we have two massive weeks in the league with four games in eleven days. West Brom (A) and Oxford United (H) are both potential banana skins against teams fighting against relegation, and Coventry (A) are obviously top of the league and playing for automatics. Only Norwich City (H) arguably have little to play for. After Oxford we don't play again until Good Friday.

I think after these four games we'll know if the rest of the season is a write off or if we're going back to Wembley.

[benjii]

2 hours ago, macca155 said:

Every week there are fewer permutations. Coventry, Middlesbrough, Millwall, and Ipswich are out of reach. I fear Hull could soon join them.

It really is a straight fight between Saints and Wrexham, unless Watford, Derby or Bristol City join the party.

Every game is crucial now .

Love this league

If we win every match we'll probably come second. Keep the faith.

[BARCELONASAINT]

I just have this horrible feeling the chase is beyond us and i felt this after the draw at Fratton Park which was then even more compounded by the draw at home to Charlton. The pressure really is all on us to keep winning whereas the teams above us actually have a cushion and a far easier run in. I sadly think its going to be so close but not close enough.

[Sir Ralph]

Hull have Ipswich, Wrexham and Millwall in the next few games. If they don’t win any of those, that opens up an opportunity for us

[benjii]

8 minutes ago, Sir Ralph said:

Hull have Ipswich, Wrexham and Millwall in the next few games. If they don’t win any of those, that opens up an opportunity for us

Hull appear to be "outperforming" what you would expect more than the other teams in the mix and could well have a wobble.

[Sir Ralph]

1 minute ago, benjii said:

Hull appear to be "outperforming" what you would expect more than the other teams in the mix and could well have a wobble.

If there are two teams we can chase down realistically I fancy our chances. If it’s only one less so. Hull are the ones we need to get dragged in

[goodymatt]

Just now, benjii said:

Hull appear to be "outperforming" what you would expect more than the other teams in the mix and could well have a wobble.

Agreed. Although they have consistently over performed underlying stats all season, you do wonder if that could change between now and the end of the season. Our margin for error is very small.

[goodymatt]

The Opta expected table has Hull 22nd on 38 points, easily the biggest over performing team this season. All this with transfer restrictions following staying up on the final day last season. Fair play to them.

[Chez]

On 01/03/2026 at 08:43, die Mannyschaft said:

Saints have the more difficult run in. Ipswich hull and Millwall we cant catch only on paper.  Some needs to beat Wrexham and don't think that's possible 

Wrexham's last two games are Cov and Boro. I wonder if both opponents will be promoted by then, which would drastically change the look of those games. They also have Hull, Sheff United, Watford, Birmingham and us to play. Plenty of opportunities to drop points. If they don't, then fair play to them. 

[OnceaSaintalwaysaSaint]

32 minutes ago, Chez said:

Wrexham's last two games are Cov and Boro. I wonder if both opponents will be promoted by then, which would drastically change the look of those games. They also have Hull, Sheff United, Watford, Birmingham and us to play. Plenty of opportunities to drop points. If they don't, then fair play to them. 

That's how I look at it. From our perspective, I'm hoping we can dispatch West Brom midweek and then get something from Coventry away and we'll have a massive confidence boost for the future games. 

[Football Special]

1 hour ago, Chez said:

Wrexham's last two games are Cov and Boro. I wonder if both opponents will be promoted by then, which would drastically change the look of those games. They also have Hull, Sheff United, Watford, Birmingham and us to play. Plenty of opportunities to drop points. If they don't, then fair play to them. 

I still think Ipswich will get 2nd 

[Saint86]

1 hour ago, OnceaSaintalwaysaSaint said:

That's how I look at it. From our perspective, I'm hoping we can dispatch West Brom midweek and then get something from Coventry away and we'll have a massive confidence boost for the future games. 

I did a championship predictor over the weekend. Essentially had Hull and wrexham winning every game (where practicable), and all the other teams above us winning every game in the most onerous way for us (i.e., always benefiting the lower of hull/wrexham basically). That won't happen obviously, but if it did then i think it worked out that we'd miss out by 1-2 points on 6th place.

Probably explained that terribly, but in effect it means that if hull played say ipswich, then i'd have given hull the win, but if wrexham played hull then i would have given it to whichever of them needed the points (99% sure that was wrexham).

The reality though is that it pretty much is in our own hands - there is near zero probability of Wrexham and hull achieving their required "maximum" points and keeping us out, especially with their fixtures vs other top sides - So saints need to just keep going, focus on ourselves, win as many as we can, and crucially beat Wrexham away, or certainly don't lose that one. We have the squad depth and quality, barring a major injury crisis (touch wood we don't hit one) that is an advantage to us over this run in. Against it, Eckert is still very young an inexperienced, and he is going to make mistakes.

But one of the 5 sides is going to drop form and points - just don't let it be us.

And bottom line - if saints maintain the form to qualify, then with this squad you'd be a brave punter to bet against another side to win them over saints imho.

Edited 1 hour ago by Saint86