EU referendum

I think we watch this type of programmes and see what we want to see. So the impression I'm getting here that Remain are getting their point across better is surely unreliable. Nevertheless that is how it seems to me.

 

That Ruth women is a bit of a star methinks.

I thought she was a gobby shouter that spoilt her good points with too much aggression. All her interrupting and the inability to let the other side make their points without persistent comments let her down. I can't see her changing too many voters, just a gobby lite version of Amber Rudd. If that is the up and coming leadership of the Conservative party they are in a lot of trouble, they will lose a lot of deposits. If the Conservatives ever make her leader of the party they are signing their own death warrant. Enough Conservative voters won't support a Scottish leader, especially a pro EU one, to make them unelectable. The Conservative party after this acrimonious referendum will be in deep trouble anyway.

I think remain will win fair comfortably. probably by the same margin as in the Scotland vote.

I had to laugh at one of the polls I have just read. Headline saying Britain on course to remain with 56% likely to vote that way

then underneath, it stated that 800 people were polled.

...I can't see her changing too many voters, just a gobby lite version of Amber Rudd...

Rudd... shudder... she was appalling on one of the debates a few weeks ago, is her volume set to 11 ?

In my dream land I want Gisela Stuart to become the leader of the Conservative party

so, the gusto last night about staying in and making a positive change in the EU has been blown out of the water....by the EU itself

there is no reform, there is not going to be reform unless it involves ever closer union

I thought she was a gobby shouter that spoilt her good points with too much aggression. All her interrupting and the inability to let the other side make their points without persistent comments let her down. I can't see her changing too many voters, just a gobby lite version of Amber Rudd. If that is the up and coming leadership of the Conservative party they are in a lot of trouble, they will lose a lot of deposits. If the Conservatives ever make her leader of the party they are signing their own death warrant. Enough Conservative voters won't support a Scottish leader, especially a pro EU one, to make them unelectable. The Conservative party after this acrimonious referendum will be in deep trouble anyway.

Ironic in a way seeing as CMD's motives for caling it were to stop the bickering once and for all.

It is also the opinion of many

 

This from my favorite Economist

 

The waves of economists, businessmen, scientists, university leaders, doctors, historians and more shouting loud that Brexit would be harmful has been incredibly impressive. It reflects the fact that this is not a debate with decent arguments on both sides, but a pretty open and shut case. But I think it reflects as well the nature of the pro-Brexit campaign.

 

Not just that Leave have lied openly and repeatedly. Not just that they have used lies to provoke fear (Turkey). It is that they are trying to deflect the blame for failing to adequately fund public services on to migrants who are just looking for a better life. And it is working. More people feel they have personally benefited from migration than otherwise, but most people also ‘know’ that migration has been bad for the NHS. Such incorrect beliefs appear immune to expert opinion because large parts of the media shut that opinion out, and ideologues deride experts.

 

Of course these lies play on basic fears about unfamiliar people. But the way our society used to respond to this in the past was by uniting behind truth and humanity, and through patient explanation. If some politicians tried to fan fears of migration by, for example, talking about rivers of blood they were quickly slammed down by the majority, and it has to be said also by the media. And our society was better for it.

 

Today those politicians talking about a breaking point in front of pictures of refugees are given large amounts of air time by the broadcast media. Those pretending we are about to be swamped by Turkish migrants are cheered on by nearly all of the tabloid press. Populist politicians are about to lead once proud centre right parties on both sides of the Atlantic. And one brave Yorkshire politician that argued against all this was shot dead in the street.

 

We cannot continue to let this pass. It will not stop with Brexit. When Brexit fails to improve our public services or our economy there will be other scapegoats. Maybe migrants already here, or nasty foreigners who failed to give the beneficial trade deals the Leave campaign pretend we will get.

It articles like that I hate. Highlighting the economic risks are fair enough but when people try to make out that 300k extra people every year doesn't have an effect on public services during a time of austerity then you just know they are talking ******.

It's the lack of honesty on both sides of the debate that has made this whole refurendum so irritating.

Leaving is a gamble with the economy but it IS the only way to solve the problems caused by mass uncontrolled immigration.

Staying is the safest bet for the economy but means there is no way of stopping mass uncontrolled immigration.

Personally I think the gamble is worth it, otherwise where is the hope?

As for the Turkey accession, the talks are to start with the EU on 30th June with a view to resolving as quickly as possible Turkey's entrance to the EU. Although scheduled for some time this information has been withheld by the Government from the electorate. Just leaked in France. What a devious lying bunch of ****s they are.

It articles like that I hate. Highlighting the economic risks are fair enough but when people try to make out that 300k extra people every year doesn't have an effect on public services during a time of austerity then you just know they are talking ******.

 

It's the lack of honesty on both sides of the debate that has made this whole refurendum so irritating.

 

Leaving is a gamble with the economy but it IS the only way to solve the problems caused by mass uncontrolled immigration.

 

Staying is the safest bet for the economy but means there is no way of stopping mass uncontrolled immigration.

 

Personally I think the gamble is worth it, otherwise where is the hope?

I strongly agree that the population growth is harmful and not sustainable but I can't agee that leqaving the EU would make the slightest bit of difference.

Last year to December 2015 the net figures were 184,000 EU and 188,000 non-EU (Migrationwatch) and there seems to be no appetite amongst our various layous of government to do anything about either. We could clamp down severely on non-EU but we haven't done so for as long as I can remember and whatever we are voting for tomorrow I am pretty certain that we won't be voting to leave the Rest of the World. Despite popular belief we can actually control EU immigration. A citizen from another member state can be removed from the country unless they are 'economically active' (working), studying or self-sufficient. From what I can discern there is not system in place to regulate or enforce this and only a handful of people have ever been asked to leave.

So, tomorrow we make our choice but don't for a moment believe that net immigration will be reduced. It hasn't happened up to now and it's not going to change after the vote whatever the outcome. There's simply no political will for it amongst the politicians and vested interests.

As for the Turkey accession, the talks are to start with the EU on 30th June with a view to resolving as quickly as possible Turkey's entrance to the EU. Although scheduled for some time this information has been withheld by the Government from the electorate. Just leaked in France. What a devious lying bunch of ****s they are.

There is absolutely no chance that Turkey will be joining the EU. Of all the scaremongering that I have seen this ranks as the worst. You need to understand the politics, 'opening talks' is just diplomatic talk and means as much as 'we must have lunch sometime'.

There is absolutely no chance that Turkey will be joining the EU. Of all the scaremongering that I have seen this ranks as the worst. You need to understand the politics, 'opening talks' is just diplomatic talk and means as much as 'we must have lunch sometime'.

If you don't make our lunch date I will open the door for millions of economic migrants to flood Costa Coffee

Drunken Juncker pops Jezza and others " let's stay and reform from inside" balloon by announcing there is no more reform

 

"British voters have to know there will be no kind of any negotiation. We have concluded a deal with the prime minister. He got the maximum he could receive, and we gave the maximum we could give, so there will be no kind of renegotiation."

 

Dave said yesterday " vote in Thursday and my renegotiation continues Fri" . lol , no it doesn't Dave

 

Great intervention the day before polling , perhaps deep down he wants us to leave .

Within an hour of this intervention, the polls switch back to favour leave. Could Junckers statement be the torpedo into the Remain Carrier??

Why on earth did he make such a statement? Utterly bizarre. Even though he was referring to Brexit, that down just makes him look like a bully. People don't like bullies

when Sadiq Khan was shouting about reforming the EU from within last night, did anyone actually believe him?

serious question. It sounded that many in the audience did

when Sadiq Khan was shouting about reforming the EU from within last night, did anyone actually believe him?

serious question. It sounded that many in the audience did

Does anybody actually believe anything either side have put out in the last few weeks ?

What a devious lying bunch of ****s they are.

And were you surprised to discover this ?

when Sadiq Khan was shouting about reforming the EU from within last night, did anyone actually believe him?

serious question. It sounded that many in the audience did

Well Juncker has seriously contradicted him today.

I strongly agree that the population growth is harmful and not sustainable but I can't agee that leqaving the EU would make the slightest bit of difference.

 

Last year to December 2015 the net figures were 184,000 EU and 188,000 non-EU (Migrationwatch) and there seems to be no appetite amongst our various layous of government to do anything about either. We could clamp down severely on non-EU but we haven't done so for as long as I can remember and whatever we are voting for tomorrow I am pretty certain that we won't be voting to leave the Rest of the World. Despite popular belief we can actually control EU immigration. A citizen from another member state can be removed from the country unless they are 'economically active' (working), studying or self-sufficient. From what I can discern there is not system in place to regulate or enforce this and only a handful of people have ever been asked to leave.

 

So, tomorrow we make our choice but don't for a moment believe that net immigration will be reduced. It hasn't happened up to now and it's not going to change after the vote whatever the outcome. There's simply no political will for it amongst the politicians and vested interests.

But we have never ever had the levels of immigration we are seeing today (except I think during WW2) so it has never been such an issue. If we could control the borders and the government chose not to the public can decide wether to re-elect them or not, at the moment there is no one to vote for to do anything.

Well Juncker has seriously contradicted him today.

He hasn't. In the event of Brexit Juncker has ruled out Britain coming back and asking for a better deal. That is utterly different from working to reform the EU from the inside.

"We have concluded a deal with the prime minister. He got the maximum he could receive and we gave the maximum we could give. So there will be no renegotiation, not on the agreement we found in February, nor as far as any kind of treaty negotiations are concerned,"*

Sounds pretty certain Either way.

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"We have concluded a deal with the prime minister. He got the maximum he could receive and we gave the maximum we could give. So there will be no renegotiation, not on the agreement we found in February, nor as far as any kind of treaty negotiations are concerned,"*

 

Sounds pretty certain Either way.

 

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and that so-called deal only lasts for 12 years. then it just goes away

"We have concluded a deal with the prime minister. He got the maximum he could receive and we gave the maximum we could give. So there will be no renegotiation, not on the agreement we found in February, nor as far as any kind of treaty negotiations are concerned,"*

 

Sounds pretty certain Either way.

 

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Can you really not distinguish between a special deal for Britain which isnt going to get renegotiated and reform of the whole EU by member countries?

Southampton is Europhile.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3652901/Are-neighbours-Interactive-map-reveals-Eurosceptic-areas-Britain-ahead-EU-referendum.html

Southampton is Europhile.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3652901/Are-neighbours-Interactive-map-reveals-Eurosceptic-areas-Britain-ahead-EU-referendum.html

To be ignored; it's the Daily Mail

To be ignored; it's the Daily Mail

I must admit I was pretty surprised!

Got a leaflet through the door today informing me that our road is one of those most likely to vote to leave, which is strange as most of our neighbours are, AFAIK, in the Remain camp, ( including all 4 votes in our house ). As soon as the chap who delivered it had gone back through the front gate I went out, tore it up, and put it in the bin, whistling La Marseillaise, knowing that he was still within earshot.

IF we do vote Remain, I shall be laughing especially hard at the Far Right groups whose hateful rhetoric may well have directly caused a sympathy swing for Jo Cox.

Sandy Shaw shyt faced on TV it seems.

Sandy Shaw shyt faced on TV it seems.

 

Heaven knows I'm missing that now.

What channel is it on?

Heaven knows I'm missing that now.

 

What channel is it on?

Ch4. it is almost over. quite funny as it is a proper dust up.

the remain/leave panel change every 10 mins or so and paxman is being a rude ****

But we have never ever had the levels of immigration we are seeing today (except I think during WW2) so it has never been such an issue. If we could control the borders and the government chose not to the public can decide wether to re-elect them or not, at the moment there is no one to vote for to do anything.

I don't expect any of the major parties to limit the level of immigration by any significant amount whether we're in or out of the EU. Immigration brings money, whether it's through work or paying to study here and no political party will turn that away. The more mainstream politicians on the a leave side have already declared themselves as pro immigration so if we vote leave, there will be a lot of disgruntled people when the immigration levels stay the same IMHO.

"We have concluded a deal with the prime minister. He got the maximum he could receive and we gave the maximum we could give. So there will be no renegotiation, not on the agreement we found in February, nor as far as any kind of treaty negotiations are concerned,"*

 

Sounds pretty certain Either way.

 

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It's not him who decides, any proposal for reform has to be ratified by the member states. Still an odd gaffe though.

Isobel Hardman on newsnight tonight saying that the remain labour MP's she speaks to have changed their tune . 6 weeks ago it was all about getting their vote out but now theyre saying they don't particularly want their people to vote.

So Prof John Curtice, the undisputed king of polling has his poll of polls tracker on the very last day with the very last poll tracking at......50:50.

Eff me. Knife edge.

Said it a few times but I see that as a leave win because a) turnout will support leave and far too many young Remain professionals will forget/not be arsed/stay in the pub/lose their voting card thing etc etc and will get obliterated by the stoic voting pensioner army and b) I don't buy the "people will vote for the status quo" thing. It made sense in Scotland but it doesn't here. People who haven't thought about it until this morning aren't going to instinctively vote for Europe/Germans/Brussels/Immigrants. It's a status quo with no residual value.

Leave will win.

The bookies, not the pollsters, will be proven wrong this time. Not that they'll lose a penny.

But we have never ever had the levels of immigration we are seeing today (except I think during WW2) so it has never been such an issue. If we could control the borders and the government chose not to the public can decide wether to re-elect them or not, at the moment there is no one to vote for to do anything.

I totally agree that the present levels of immigration are harmful to our quality of life and totally unsustainable but I'm afraid that it makes no difference who we elect or who we throw out, they won't do anything about it. I think this article in The Times from Monday sums it all up:

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2016-06-20/comment/dont-fall-for-leaves-promises-on-immigration-g87qdtl75

"The point is that to reduce migration significantly you need not only the ability to do so but the political resolve. That is not to suggest that David Cameron has been totally laissez faire. Reforms to family and work visas have cut the numbers. But when I worked at No 10 in 2010-15 — writing key speeches on immigration — I saw time and again how the Whitehall machine and various vested interests move to crush proposed immigration reforms. Potential announcements were watered down, filtered through various departments with their own objections, caveated to nothing."

We should have a thread sweepstake for closest guess. Im going 53% / 47% remain win.

If it was just England voting, leave would probably win quite comfortably, with the other country's of Great Britain voting it will be Remain by 4/5% I predict.

I'll go 54.1% Remain 45.9% Leave.

It will be close, 52 remain 48 leave

56% leave 44% remain.

Sunderland will declare first showing a massive win for Leave far beyond the expectations of the experts and then it goes from there. Paddy Ashdown will say he doesn't believe the early results which will be the death knell.

Also, it's raining in London which will knock out a reasonable percentage of turnout from one of the strongest remain areas.

56% leave 44% remain.

 

Sunderland will declare first showing a massive win for Leave far beyond the expectations of the experts and then it goes from there. Paddy Ashdown will say he doesn't believe the early results which will be the death knell.

 

Also, it's raining in London which will knock out a reasonable percentage of turnout from one of the strongest remain areas.

Polling booths already 30+ deep here in Essex with commuters.

50% 50% ... new referendum called for next month and it all starts again.

So Prof John Curtice, the undisputed king of polling has his poll of polls tracker on the very last day with the very last poll tracking at......50:50.

 

Eff me. Knife edge.

 

Said it a few times but I see that as a leave win because a) turnout will support leave and far too many young Remain professionals will forget/not be arsed/stay in the pub/lose their voting card thing etc etc and will get obliterated by the stoic voting pensioner army and b) I don't buy the "people will vote for the status quo" thing. It made sense in Scotland but it doesn't here. People who haven't thought about it until this morning aren't going to instinctively vote for Europe/Germans/Brussels/Immigrants. It's a status quo with no residual value.

 

Leave will win.

 

The bookies, not the pollsters, will be proven wrong this time. Not that they'll lose a penny.

Minor point you dont need a voting card to vote.

Throughtout this thread I've never even attempted to predict the referendum outcome. With the polls still so incredibly close there is little point in my guessing now. So it seems then the substantial 'don't know' group will decide the issue as they sure as hell have to make their minds up today - if they bother to vote at all that is.

My hope is that more of this group will vote to remain rather than leave. There is a smidgen of polling evidence to suggest that this MIGHT be true. But no bugger really knows do they?

This may be the most important single day in this nation's post war history.

55 remain 45 leave

will be glad when its over and will not be staying up to watch the results come in tonight as i fully expect the majority of voters to vote to remain in anyway.

54 remain 46 leave

People grow weary of 'take back control' line. Fck me must have worked in a focus group so now these tw ats must say it in every possible interview at least 3 times.

50% 50% ... new referendum called for next month and it all starts again.

Surely if there is no mandate for change you stay with the status quo?

People grow weary of 'take back control' line. Fck me must have worked in a focus group so now these tw ats must say it in every possible interview at least 3 times.

Politicians are always looking for 'trigger' words and phrases. 'Stay' would have been more positive than 'remain' imo.

The repetition of "Vote leave, and take back control" has been one of strongest things about the Leave campaign. Great marketing.

Remain is an awful fiddly word that no one on the remain side used with any discipline.

Even on the ballot paper the leave line is shorter and clearer.

There is a record number entitled to vote, which possibly favours remain, I would imagine.

There is a record number entitled to vote, which possibly favours remain, I would imagine.

Depends why the numbers are going up. About half the population increase is immigration but half is homegrown, mostly people living longer.