Jump to content

Possible Promotion Rivals


John B

Recommended Posts

At the moment if we can strengthen the team a little in the January Window there is the possibility of getting to the play offs.

 

 

I feel that the automatic promotion places will be filled by two of Charlton Norwich and Leeds

 

 

But that leaves three places up for grabs in the play offs

 

I think they could be filled by Millwall and Huddersfield but of course any of the top ten clubs could be there come May

 

So lets hope teams such as Bristol Rovers MK Dons Swindon Walsall and Colchester start losing so that we can get into the play off places.

 

It is not just about us winning games I think it is about others losing theirs as we got into the play offs last time when Preston's form dipped at the end of the season

Link to comment
Share on other sites

IMHO....Cortese should identify and target our most likely 'play off place' rivals and snap up two or three of the the best players in that 'pool' of teams in January, thus stiffling any threat from our main competitors.

 

Well, that's how it would work in 'real' business....headhunt the best people for your company whilst snuffing out the threat from others.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Promotion? Really?

 

Yup. Only 12 points away (?)

 

I bet if we had a 'normal' season and were 12 points away from the relegation zone at this stage of the season we wouldn't feel 'safe'. A simple reverse of that logic suggests that 12 points is achievable ground to make up.

 

Really.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At the moment if we can strengthen the team a little in the January Window there is the possibility of getting to the play offs.

 

 

I feel that the automatic promotion places will be filled by two of Charlton Norwich and Leeds

 

 

But that leaves three places up for grabs in the play offs

 

I think they could be filled by Millwall and Huddersfield but of course any of the top ten clubs could be there come May

 

So lets hope teams such as Bristol Rovers MK Dons Swindon Walsall and Colchester start losing so that we can get into the play off places.

 

It is not just about us winning games I think it is about others losing theirs as we got into the play offs last time when Preston's form dipped at the end of the season

 

Um! We are still 12 points off which is worse than where we were about 6 weeks ago when we were 11 points adrift and Nick started getting hot flushes. Realistically, we are playing exactly on par with Millwall who this morning are running 8th, they match us every week so how will we pull back 10 points on them by season's end?

 

My advice, don't set your sights so high as you'll be one very miserable bugger at season's end. Look forward to next year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

IMHO....Cortese should identify and target our most likely 'play off place' rivals and snap up two or three of the the best players in that 'pool' of teams in January, thus stiffling any threat from our main competitors.

 

Well, that's how it would work in 'real' business....headhunt the best people for your company whilst snuffing out the threat from others.

And then we loan them out to other teams in this league who are not our promotion rivals, on condition that they can't play against us.

 

A cunning plan. Expensive, but cunning. I hope Markus is reading this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Promotion? Really?

 

 

If we maintain this form for the rest of the season we will make the play offs.

 

And if we make the play-offs, I think we will be promoted because god lord we'd be the number one form team in Britain.

 

It is possible, but of course not easy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

IMHO....Cortese should identify and target our most likely 'play off place' rivals and snap up two or three of the the best players in that 'pool' of teams in January, thus stiffling any threat from our main competitors.

 

Well, that's how it would work in 'real' business....headhunt the best people for your company whilst snuffing out the threat from others.

 

'Au contraire' trousers, my friend. We should target the financially crippled clubs like Preston in the lower reaches of the CCC if our aim is to be back there next season, building for the future means better players than Division 3 can offer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yup. Only 12 points away (?)

 

I bet if we had a 'normal' season and were 12 points away from the relegation zone at this stage of the season we wouldn't feel 'safe'. A simple reverse of that logic suggests that 12 points is achievable ground to make up.

 

Really.

 

Indeed, three wins and all of a sudden we could be 3 points away. It won't seem so ridiculous then.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At the moment if we can strengthen the team a little in the January Window there is the possibility of getting to the play offs.

 

I feel that the automatic promotion places will be filled by two of Charlton Norwich and Leeds

 

 

But that leaves three places up for grabs in the play offs

 

I think they could be filled by Millwall and Huddersfield but of course any of the top ten clubs could be there come May

 

So lets hope teams such as Bristol Rovers MK Dons Swindon Walsall and Colchester start losing so that we can get into the play off places.

 

It is not just about us winning games I think it is about others losing theirs as we got into the play offs last time when Preston's form dipped at the end of the season

 

Gotta disagree with you. I really dont think we need to strengthen. We're averaging 2.22 ppg in the last 9 league games. That form would get us to about 80 points which would comfortably get us into the playoffs.

 

Supposing we win our next two, we could be going into the Leeds game in the top half of the table. Hartlepool are 11th on 23 - only 4 points above us. If we can start the new year at the bottom of the top half, we'll be very hard to stop.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Stupid thread. We wont make the playoffs. I'd be happy to eat my words, however, but I wont get my hopes up.

 

Well thank you for the comment about a stupid thread

 

 

I agree the Play offs are unlikely but I was just thinking about the other clubs that are candidates for promotion and if we are to get to the play offs these candidates need to stop winning

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gotta disagree with you. I really dont think we need to strengthen. We're averaging 2.22 ppg in the last 9 league games. That form would get us to about 80 points which would comfortably get us into the playoffs.

 

Supposing we win our next two, we could be going into the Leeds game in the top half of the table. Hartlepool are 11th on 23 - only 4 points above us. If we can start the new year at the bottom of the top half, we'll be very hard to stop.

 

We have been averaging these points against lowly placed teams and have suffered very few injuries so far.

 

Surely we need a new striker and a defender to help with injuries and a possibe loss of form

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's going to be really important for us to take points off of the top 8 teams when we play them both to help our points tally but also to take points off them. the match against Walsall this weekend is a real 6 pointer in that regard. Looking at the fixture list we have about 13 matches left against promotion rivals so there is plenty of opportunity to make up ground.

 

Regarding players for January, we need a back up striker to Lambert to take the pressure off him to play 90 mins of every game. He will become less effective if we have to play him for all of every match and I'm concerned about how we would adapt our pattern of play without him as a target man as he seems integral to the way we play.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If this is going to be possible, we cannot lose on Sat.

 

Wallsall are on 30pts, right on the cusp of the playoffs - if we can beat them, we gain on them and possibly drag the pack back towards us. Colchester and Rovers are playing eachother, so points will be dropped there and huddersfield are away to leeds...so it's hard to imagine them winning.

 

If we do our bit, by the end of saturday we should possibly be only 9 points away...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If this is going to be possible, we cannot lose on Sat.

 

Wallsall are on 30pts, right on the cusp of the playoffs - if we can beat them, we gain on them and possibly drag the pack back towards us. Colchester and Rovers are playing eachother, so points will be dropped there and huddersfield are away to leeds...so it's hard to imagine them winning.

 

If we do our bit, by the end of saturday we should possibly be only 9 points away...

 

I'm quietly confident of 3 points on saturday anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We have been averaging these points against lowly placed teams and have suffered very few injuries so far.

 

Surely we need a new striker and a defender to help with injuries and a possibe loss of form

 

Sorry, no. Of the 9 games, 4 of the teams were top half, 5 were bottom half. And we dropped more points against the teams in the bottom half in that run of 9 games (Brighton and Orient).

 

Suffered very few injuries? Lost our goalkeeper (can you get a more key injury?) and been without right back for most of the season.

 

I'll also re-iterate a point I made on a previous thread. Injuries won't be exclusive to Southampton Football Club. All teams in this league will get them. However, we have a very big squad already that can cover any injuries. Our bench against Hartlepool contained 7 players that would walk into the starting 11 of 18 of the 24 teams in this league. We have cover in every position.

 

Davis/Bart

Murty James

Trotman Thomas

Jaidi Perry

Harding Molyneux/Mills

Wotton James

Schneiderlin Mellis

Hammond Gobern

Antonio Waigo

Connolly Holmes

Lambert Saganowski (yes he is still here!)

 

 

Also not mentioning:

 

Gillett

Forecast

Lancashire

Paterson

McLaggon

Thomson

Boyle

Preen

Doble

McNish

Martin

 

Just in case we get a freakish amount of injuries....Granted most of those simply aren't good enough but Gillett, Lancashire, McLaggon, Thomson have been known to have at least one good game at Championship level so you could expect they could do a job covering injuries for a short period of time in League 1.

 

I'm just saying that we don't need any more additions unless we lose one or two.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sorry, no. Of the 9 games, 4 of the teams were top half, 5 were bottom half. And we dropped more points against the teams in the bottom half in that run of 9 games (Brighton and Orient).

 

Suffered very few injuries? Lost our goalkeeper (can you get a more key injury?) and been without right back for most of the season.

 

I'll also re-iterate a point I made on a previous thread. Injuries won't be exclusive to Southampton Football Club. All teams in this league will get them. However, we have a very big squad already that can cover any injuries. Our bench against Hartlepool contained 7 players that would walk into the starting 11 of 18 of the 24 teams in this league. We have cover in every position.

 

Davis/Bart

Murty James

Trotman Thomas

Jaidi Perry

Harding Molyneux/Mills

Wotton James

Schneiderlin Mellis

Hammond Gobern

Antonio Waigo

Connolly Holmes

Lambert Saganowski (yes he is still here!)

 

 

Also not mentioning:

 

Gillett

Forecast

Lancashire

Paterson

McLaggon

Thomson

Boyle

Preen

Doble

McNish

Martin

 

Just in case we get a freakish amount of injuries....Granted most of those simply aren't good enough but Gillett, Lancashire, McLaggon, Thomson have been known to have at least one good game at Championship level so you could expect they could do a job covering injuries for a short period of time in League 1.

 

I'm just saying that we don't need any more additions unless we lose one or two.

 

We have really only had one major injury at a time unlike previous seasons.

 

 

We have only beaten one top ten team I believe this season which I would thought was not good

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 games left so 81 points left to play for.

 

Max we could get is 100 then. Auto prom places were 96 & 89 points last season with play-offs down to 76.

 

Though I can't see us winning all the remaining games (would be nice but unlikely) It does show we still have everything to play for.

 

An average of just over 2 points per game should see us in the play-offs :-)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why is everyone so obsessed about getting into the play offs - yes it would be great but lets face it - we won't.

 

Somewhere down the road we will hit another bad run of form and everyone on this forum will be acting like the world is coming to an end.

 

We will finish mid-table this season IMHO, which is good enough for me. Then we will have to spend a bit in the summer because this current squad isn't good enough to finish in the top 2.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why is everyone so obsessed about getting into the play offs - yes it would be great but lets face it - we won't.

 

Somewhere down the road we will hit another bad run of form and everyone on this forum will be acting like the world is coming to an end.

 

We will finish mid-table this season IMHO, which is good enough for me. Then we will have to spend a bit in the summer because this current squad isn't good enough to finish in the top 2.

 

You are probably right, but where is the fun in that ? It adds more interest to the season to have the belief that we might get into the play-offs - im certainly not happy just to expect mid -table at this stage, even though it is the most likley outcome.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why is everyone so obsessed about getting into the play offs - yes it would be great but lets face it - we won't.

 

Somewhere down the road we will hit another bad run of form and everyone on this forum will be acting like the world is coming to an end.

 

We will finish mid-table this season IMHO, which is good enough for me. Then we will have to spend a bit in the summer because this current squad isn't good enough to finish in the top 2.

 

I dont disagree with you but hoping for the best after the recent nightmare years is OK is it not

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why is everyone so obsessed about getting into the play offs - yes it would be great but lets face it - we won't.

 

Somewhere down the road we will hit another bad run of form and everyone on this forum will be acting like the world is coming to an end.

 

We will finish mid-table this season IMHO, which is good enough for me. Then we will have to spend a bit in the summer because this current squad isn't good enough to finish in the top 2.

 

It's nice to have something to aim for. Better than just going through each match with nothing riding on it.

 

Just makes it a bit interesting if we're keeping touch with the top 6!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When comparing Saints points tally in the last 8 matches to those in automatic promotion places or around the play off zone.

 

Leeds -2pts (Saints 2 points less then Leeds in last 8 league games)

Charlton +2pts (Saints 2 points more than Charlton in last 8 league games)

Norwich - 2 pts

Colchester + 7pts

Huddersfield + 1 pt

Bristol Rovers + 8pts

Walsall +1pt

Millwall + 4pts

MK Dons +8pts

Swindon +3pts

 

'Just for a bit of fun' if that 8 game form is applied to the end of the season then the final table is:

 

1 Leeds 112pts

2 Norwich 99pts

3 Huddersfield 85pts

4 Walsall 84pts

5 Millwall 80pts

6 Swindon 79pts

7 SAINTS 76pts

8 Colchester 74pts

 

So Saints just miss out according to this, however I can't see Walsall or Swindon carrying on with their recent good form or Bristol Rovers and MK Dons with their poor form so could come back into contention, so as long as Saints can carry on with their recent form we will be in with a chance of the playoffs. Ifs, buts and maybes !!

 

Last 8 Game League 1 Form:

 

P W D L F A +/- Pts

1 Leeds United 8 6 1 1 17 3 +14 19

2 Norwich City 8 6 1 1 17 6 +11 19

3 Southampton 8 5 2 1 18 11 +7 17

4 Huddersfield Town 8 5 1 2 22 8 +14 16

5 Walsall 8 5 1 2 16 7 +9 16

6 Charlton Athletic 8 4 3 1 16 9 +7 15

7 Millwall 8 4 3 1 15 10 +5 15

8 Swindon Town 8 4 2 2 12 9 +3 14

9 Colchester United 8 3 3 2 11 9 +2 12

10 Carlisle United 8 4 0 4 15 15 0 12

11 Hartlepool United 8 3 2 3 11 11 0 11

12 Yeovil Town 8 3 2 3 10 13 -3 11

13 Leyton Orient 8 3 1 4 9 12 -3 10

14 Brentford 8 2 3 3 7 9 -2 9

15 Exeter City 8 2 3 3 10 13 -3 9

16 Milton Keynes Dons 8 3 0 5 13 18 -5 9

17 Bristol Rovers 8 3 0 5 11 17 -6 9

18 Southend United 8 3 0 5 7 13 -6 9

19 Wycombe 8 2 2 4 9 15 -6 8

20 Tranmere Rovers 8 2 1 5 9 14 -5 7

21 Gillingham 8 2 1 5 5 11 -6 7

22 Brighton 8 2 1 5 10 17 -7 7

23 Oldham Athletic 8 1 2 5 5 12 -7 5

24 Stockport County 8 1 0 7 3 18 -15 3

Link to comment
Share on other sites

just for the sake of argument.................

 

If we are able to maintain 2 pts per game we would finish around 75- which is usually about enough for the last playoff spot.

 

It really does show how vital games against the "other" playoff teams are, should our good results continue.

 

An away win at Millwall for instance could be the difference.

 

Mind you, after last night my hopes are not that high- but as others have said, whats the fun in settling for 10th in L1 ??!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Next 8 games.

 

A Walsall

H Tranmere

A Leeds United

H Exeter City

A Colchester

H Huddersfield

A Millwall

H Swindon Town

 

Can't see us getting as many points from these as we've managed from the previous 8.

 

A Walsall Should WIN

H Tranmere Should WIN

A Leeds United Should Draw

H Exeter City Should WIN

A Colchester Should Draw

H Huddersfield Should WIN

A Millwall Should WIN

H Swindon Town Should WIN

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A Walsall Should WIN

H Tranmere Should WIN

A Leeds United Should Draw

H Exeter City Should WIN

A Colchester Should Draw

H Huddersfield Should WIN

A Millwall Should WIN

H Swindon Town Should WIN

 

I reckon if we get 3 points from those 4 away games, we'll be lucky! I can see 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from these fixtures (11 points).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Next 8 games.

 

A Walsall

H Tranmere

A Leeds United

H Exeter City

A Colchester

H Huddersfield

A Millwall

H Swindon Town

 

Can't see us getting as many points from these as we've managed from the previous 8.

 

Got to win home games. And at least a draw away from home would be good.

 

A Walsall 3 points

H Tranmere 3 points

A Leeds United 0 points

H Exeter City 3 points

A Colchester 3 points

H Huddersfield 3 points

A Millwall 1 point

H Swindon Town 3 points

 

19 points from the 8 games I reckon. I think we'll get spanked at Leeds and then go on a run for 10-15 games without losing and conceding very few with a few 1-0's along the way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A Walsall Should WIN

H Tranmere Should WIN

A Leeds United Should Draw

H Exeter City Should WIN

A Colchester Should Draw

H Huddersfield Should WIN

A Millwall Should WIN

H Swindon Town Should WIN

 

If that is the case we will be doing really well although I think a couple of shoulds should be coulds

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A Walsall Should WIN

H Tranmere Should WIN

A Leeds United Should Draw

H Exeter City Should WIN

A Colchester Should Draw

H Huddersfield Should WIN

A Millwall Should WIN

H Swindon Town Should WIN

 

We'll do extremely well to get anything from Leeds away.

As for Millwall away, should WIN??? Don't think so mate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess that the next 8 games could be:

 

A Walsall - Draw

H Tranmere - Win

A Leeds United - Lose

H Exeter City - Win

A Colchester - Draw

H Huddersfield - Draw

A Millwall - Win

H Swindon Town - Win

 

4 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss. 15 points should keep us in with an outside chance of the play offs. A lot will also depend upon injuries, suspensions and towards the end of the 8 games any comings and goings in the January transfer period.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Our 10 point deduction equates to a loss of 0.217 points per game, and if we apply it pro-rata to the season so far would give us 24.87 points and 11th position, just below Swindon. Our playing record to date is very similar to Millwall's but we had a poor start to the season and we now have Lambert, Hammond, Connolly and Waigo. I would expect us to finish comfortably above 10th, somewhere around the fringes of the playoff positions. To actually finish in the playoffs I think that we would need to beat those teams currently in positions 4 to 10, namely Colchester, Huddersfield, Bristol Rovers, Walsall, Millwall, MK Dons, Swindon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A Walsall - Win

H Tranmere - Win

A Leeds United - Lose

H Exeter City - Win

A Colchester - Win

H Huddersfield - Win

A Millwall - Draw

H Swindon Town - Win

 

I think this is realistic tbh.

 

Perhaps another away draw somewhere along the line

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why is everyone so obsessed about getting into the play offs - yes it would be great but lets face it - we won't.

 

Somewhere down the road we will hit another bad run of form and everyone on this forum will be acting like the world is coming to an end.

 

We will finish mid-table this season IMHO, which is good enough for me. Then we will have to spend a bit in the summer because this current squad isn't good enough to finish in the top 2.

 

Why? Because it is achievable, a stretch target if you like. I'd be ecstatic if we made them.

 

You do realise mid-table (12th) is currently only 4 points away. I don't think it will take another 27 games to haul those in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...