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Thread: Trump Watch

  1. #351

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    Just got up for work
    the grief on the faces of those on the beeb is very funny

    appears not a great time for lefty liberals. Tory win, Leave the EU and looks like Trump is closer to being president than people throught
    Still, they know best. I wonder when the sneering liberal elite will get the message
    Last edited by Batman; 09-11-2016 at 05:50 AM.

  2. #352

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    Is there anybody really suggesting that Trump will win in California? Because unless he does it's already over, surely?

  3. #353

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    Quote Originally Posted by Batman View Post
    Just got up for work
    the grief on the faces of those on the beeb is very funny

    appears not a great time for lefty liberals. Tory win, Leave the EU and looks like Trump is closer to being president than people throught
    Still, they know best. I wonder when the sneering liberal elite will get the message
    The idea was to break the "liberal elite" and proceed with a more progressive agenda, but obviously the democrats chose Clinton, who due to her baggage etc. has proved to be the weaker candidate we could have selected.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hutch View Post
    Is there anybody really suggesting that Trump will win in California? Because unless he does it's already over, surely?
    ???

    It's already been called and reflected in Clinton's numbers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    ???

    It's already been called and reflected in Clinton's numbers.
    Serves me right for not sitting up all night watching it then

  6. #356

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    Quote Originally Posted by hutch View Post
    Serves me right for not sitting up all night watching it then
    have the Polls got another one wrong?
    Just said that Trump is expected to win another 3 key swing states (have no idea on what numbers that means)

  7. #357

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    Quote Originally Posted by Batman View Post
    Just got up for work
    the grief on the faces of those on the beeb is very funny

    appears not a great time for lefty liberals. Tory win, Leave the EU and looks like Trump is closer to being president than people throught
    Still, they know best. I wonder when the sneering liberal elite will get the message
    Go and put your aprons on pal. The sneering liberal elite narrative is only one, smallish element of what's going on - then again you don't probably never really visited the country. Disneyland doesn't count.

  8. #358

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    Go and put your aprons on pal. The sneering liberal elite narrative is lazy and overdone - then again you don't probably never really visited the country. Disneyland doesn't count.
    ok mate

  9. #359

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    Go and put your aprons on pal. The sneering liberal elite narrative is only one, smallish element of what's going on - then again you don't probably never really visited the country. Disneyland doesn't count.
    Beat me to it. Got to love 'sneering liberal elite' term only used in Sun leader articles.
    Expect batman refers to fcking as a 'sexy romp'

    And also can't have an original thought on the BBC

  10. #360

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    Quote Originally Posted by Batman View Post
    ok mate
    Yep- many traditional Republicans have also been given a kicking by this result (if it holds).

  11. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Batman View Post
    have the Polls got another one wrong?
    Just said that Trump is expected to win another 3 key swing states (have no idea on what numbers that means)
    Nate Silver was right when his 70% Clinton prediction was a mix of narrow trump win or landslide Clinton as the most likely results.

    Complex maths including humans is hard - they will get better.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris27687 View Post
    Nate Silver was right when his 70% Clinton prediction was a mix of narrow trump win or landslide Clinton as the most likely results.

    Complex maths including humans is hard - they will get better.
    FiveThirtyEight has had a shocker (albeit not as bad as some of the other prognosticators). The boy wonder's (lucky) run has come to a spectacular end.

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    The Associated Press has called Pennsylvania for Trump. Essentially game over. Trump's won.

  14. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    FiveThirtyEight has had a shocker (albeit not as bad as some of the other prognosticators). The boy wonder's run has come to a spectacular end.
    They had the best results of the pollsters - a single national pole survey is useless.

    They felt that a 4/5% swing was possible so they factored it in - everyone else didn't.

    The problem was HRC - political dynasties are not good.

    Bush, bush, Clinton, Clinton, Bush, bush, Obama, Obama , Clinton?!?

    As much as I would vote for her over him every day that is a serious problem - Clintons and bushes do not have a God given right to run the politics of a country.

  15. #365

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris27687 View Post
    They had the best results of the pollsters - a single national pole survey is useless.

    They felt that a 4/5% swing was possible so they factored it in - everyone else didn't.

    The problem was HRC - political dynasties are not good.

    Bush, bush, Clinton, Clinton, Bush, bush, Obama, Obama , Clinton?!?

    As much as I would vote for her over him every day that is a serious problem - Clintons and bushes do not have a God given right to run the politics of a country.
    No they factored in a 3pp polling error (as a robustness check rather than as a baseline scenerio in their model) and still had her up in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. Plenty of egg on their faces.

  16. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    No they factored in a 3pp polling error (as a robustness check rather than as a baseline scenerio in their model) and still had her up in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. Plenty of egg on their faces.
    Dude, you don't understand how maths works.

    He got so much **** for making it closer than everyone else. Everyone; bookies, PEC, major aggregators had this as a 90%+ Clinton victory - he didn't, their model factored this in.

    There's a quite useful data science moto which should be useful for you.

    All models are flawed, but some models are useful.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris27687 View Post
    Dude, you don't understand how maths works.

    He got so much **** for making it closer than everyone else. Everyone; bookies, PEC, major aggregators had this as a 90%+ Clinton victory - he didn't, their model factored this in.

    There's a quite useful data science moto which should be useful for you.

    All models are flawed, but some models are useful.
    I work with probabilistic models everyday. Nobody said is forecasting is easy -and that's why many don't bother with it or just stick to broad directional estimates. But just because their forecasts weren't as bad as some others doesn't vindicate or change the fact that they look to be badly wrong -and certainly worse than many average punters who bet the other way.

    They gave her a 71.4% chance of not only winning the election but also winning 302 electoral votes. Indeed they grew more bullish at the 11th hour, so were actually diverging with what has gone on! Let's see how close she gets - leaving aside the result of the popular vote.
    Last edited by shurlock; 09-11-2016 at 07:21 AM.

  18. Default

    If you truly do - why are you ****ing on someone else's model?

    Models & their results are fundamental to improving accuracy as we learn more.

    My last 3 or so posts condensed: Blah blah blah - predicting humans is hard, but doable.

  19. #369

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris27687 View Post
    Attacking the judiciary for doing their job is beyond pathetic.
    Just a joke FFS

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris27687 View Post
    If you truly do - why are you ****ing on someone else's model?

    Models & their results are fundamental to improving accuracy as we learn more.

    My last 3 or so posts condensed: Blah blah blah - predicting humans is hard, but doable.
    Because I'm a firm believer of Keynes maxim that it is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong - and think there are alot of perverse incentives encouraging spurious precision. Indeed heuristics can often be more informative:

    http://www.bis.org/review/r120905a.pdf

    Nate Silver has got very rich on the basis of the supposed accuracy of his forecasts - by extension there's no reason why his failures shouldnt also be highlighted.
    Last edited by shurlock; 09-11-2016 at 07:40 AM.

  21. #371

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    Grab 'em by the pussy, baby. Yeeeeehah!

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    Because I'm firm believer of Keynes maxim that it is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong - and think there are lot of perverse incentives at work encouraging spurious precision.
    Dude, they are trying to predict an election with 3rd party polling data with insanely different methodologies.

    Give them £20m to drop on extensive polling broadly related to their core weightings and you get closer to the answer.

    I can't understand why as a mathematician you would **** on someone's work - at the very least it's useful!

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    Run to the bunkers folks!

  24. #374

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    Quote Originally Posted by Batman View Post
    Just got up for work
    the grief on the faces of those on the beeb is very funny

    appears not a great time for lefty liberals. Tory win, Leave the EU and looks like Trump is closer to being president than people throught
    Still, they know best. I wonder when the sneering liberal elite will get the message
    Agreed, brilliant result and reactions this morning.

  25. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    Nate Silver has got very rich on the basis of the supposed accuracy of his forecasts - by extension there's no reason why his failures shouldnt be equally highlighted.
    Nate made his money from poker and baseball prediction*. He is not doing what he does for the money - he doesn't need it.

    *identifying core traits in hitters that led to greater HR % - amusingly it's being a lazy bastard.

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    So Hilary spends a staggering $1.3 billion on her election campaign (twice as much as trump) and fails. Just goes to show that throwing money at things doesn't guarantee success.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris27687 View Post
    Nate made his money from poker and baseball prediction*. He is not doing what he does for the money - he doesn't need it.

    *identifying core traits in hitters that led to greater HR % - amusingly it's being a lazy bastard.
    Yep don't get me started on FiveThirtyEight's Against The Spread picks for the NFL

  28. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Bognor View Post
    So Hilary spends a staggering $1.3 billion on her election campaign (twice as much as trump) and fails. Just goes to show that throwing money at things doesn't guarantee success.
    It would be like spending $1.3 billion, I doubt that figure, on finishing practice for yoshida and expecting him to bang them in like Aguero.

  29. Default

    A stunning victory for the anti-establishment brigade...

  30. Default


  31. #381

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    Matthew 10:21-23
    “Brothers will turn against their own brothers and hand them over to be killed. Fathers will hand over their own children to be killed. Children will fight against their own parents and will have them killed. Everyone will hate you because you follow me. But the one who remains faithful to the end will be saved. 23 When you are treated badly in one city, go to another city. I promise you that you will not finish going to all the cities of Israel before the Son of Man comes again.

  32. #382

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    Nostradamus saw this coming.

  33. #383

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    ****ing hilarious.

  34. #384

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris27687 View Post
    It would be like spending $1.3 billion, I doubt that figure, on finishing practice for yoshida and expecting him to bang them in like Aguero.
    It was mentioned by the BBC. After a bit of digging, total spend was $1.3 billion.

    Hillary spent $500m and Trump spent $250m.

  35. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Bognor View Post
    It was mentioned by the BBC. After a bit of digging, total spend was $1.3 billion.

    Hillary spent $500m and Trump spent $250m.
    They really need to shorten their election period - best part of a year is ****ing ridiculous.

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    When I started this thread the prospect of this walking Anal Fistula of a candidate actually getting himself elected seemed reassuringly remote. As the months have past however the horrible possibility has grown remorselessly until the sheer size of the turnout yesterday - which kind of echoed our Britex vote - pointed the way to what was about to happen. An acute observer of the US political scene once wrote that the day would come when the American people would see their most heartfelt desire fulfilled when a total idiot was elected into the White House. That day has dawned.

    All of a sudden the advantages of a benign dictatorship almost seem attractive because this democracy malarkey isn't working any more.

  37. #387

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    I despair for my children this world is so ****ed up....

  38. #388

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    Quote Originally Posted by doddisalegend View Post
    I despair for my children this world is so ****ed up....

    I'll bite.

    I'm fed up with reading drivel like this, don't be so dramatic and ridiculous. The world still revolves, nothing changes. Get on with work and looking after your children.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    I'll bite.

    I'm fed up with reading drivel like this, don't be so dramatic and ridiculous. The world still revolves, nothing changes. Get on with work and looking after your children.
    Call dramatic if you like, I really couldn't give a ****, Its not just the fact Trump was elected (that's just another thing in a long list that constantly leaves me bemused by humanity) just read the news pages endless pages of ****ing child abuse, rape, murder, race hate, genocides and war. The worlds most powerful country electing a guy who seems quiet happy to promote more ****ing misery just sums it up. It will probably have no effect on my day to day life (unless he actually decided to drop the ****ing A-bomb) but still doesn't mean I cant hope for my kids to grow up in a better world than one we've got right now and I'm pretty damn sure Trump isn't going to improve the world we live in.

  40. #390

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    Quote Originally Posted by doddisalegend View Post
    Call dramatic if you like, I really couldn't give a ****, Its not just the fact Trump was elected (that's just another thing in a long list that constantly leaves me bemused by humanity) just read the news pages endless pages of ****ing child abuse, rape, murder, race hate, genocides and war. The worlds most powerful country electing a guy who seems quiet happy to promote more ****ing misery just sums it up. It will probably have no effect on my day to day life (unless he actually decided to drop the ****ing A-bomb) but still doesn't mean I cant hope for my kids to grow up in a better world than one we've got right now and I'm pretty damn sure Trump isn't going to improve the world we live in.
    How can you be sure of this? According to most, Obama is the best thing since sliced bread... all this has happened under his leadership.

  41. #391

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    Quote Originally Posted by doddisalegend View Post
    I despair for my children this world is so ****ed up....
    Your children have bigger problem to contend with pal. Such as their dad being such a dramatic, self righteous helmet.

  42. #392

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    Quote Originally Posted by Turkish View Post
    Your children have bigger problem to contend with pal. Such as their dad being such a dramatic, self righteous helmet.

  43. #393

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    Quote Originally Posted by SKD View Post
    How can you be sure of this? According to most, Obama is the best thing since sliced bread... all this has happened under his leadership.
    There's a good chance he will significantly reduce America's power and influence in the world, and that can't be a bad thing.

  44. #394

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    [QUOTE=Sour Mash;2418854]Agreed, brilliant result and reactions this morning.[/QUOTE

    Maybe for the likes of you and Batman it is. We had better start building more Tridents.

  45. #395

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    [QUOTE=CHAPEL END CHARLIE;2418869]When I started this thread the prospect of this walking Anal Fistula of a candidate actually getting himself elected seemed reassuringly remote. As the months have past however the horrible possibility has grown remorselessly until the sheer size of the turnout yesterday - which kind of echoed our Britex vote - pointed the way to what was about to happen. An acute observer of the US political scene once wrote that the day would come when the American people would see their most heartfelt desire fulfilled when a total idiot was elected into the White House. That day has dawned.

    All of a sudden the advantages of a benign dictatorship almost seem attractive because this democracy malarkey isn't working any more.[/QUOTE

    To be fair they do have previous in this department although I agree that Trump is probably worse than Reagan and George W combined.

  46. #396

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    [QUOTE=sadoldgit;2418890]
    Quote Originally Posted by Sour Mash View Post
    Agreed, brilliant result and reactions this morning.[/QUOTE

    Maybe for the likes of you and Batman it is. We had better start building more Tridents.
    You mean Vanguard or Dreadnought class subs I think.The actual Trident missiles are doled out to us by the US I believe although there might have been some recent change of which I wasn't aware.
    Last edited by Window Cleaner; 09-11-2016 at 12:32 PM.

  47. #397

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  48. #398

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    A typical Facebook timeline this week (and I will see many like this);

    Saturday - Out wiv da girls #bubbles #Fun #girls #laugh (and endless selfies)
    Sunday - OMG I NEVA WANNA GO OUT AGAIN
    Sunday - OMG Ull neva guess what?
    Monday - #Mondayblues #hatework #WhyIsItNotFriday (endless sad looking selfies and pictures of a work desk)
    Tuesday - OMG its only Tuesday, life is sooooooo unfair, hate work #Tuesdayblues (picture of desk and work calendar)
    Wednesday - Wow, 2016 is so messed up, why have all these racists voted in Trump and ruined my children's lives? Are these people really stupid? Wish we could reboot 2016, it's an utter joke #fuming
    Thursday - OMG FRIDAY tomorrow #getonit #TFIF
    Friday - GET IN, its the weekend. OMG out wiv da girls #prosecco #bubbles #FridayFuntime

    Sigh.
    Last edited by Patrick Bateman; 09-11-2016 at 01:01 PM.

  49. #399

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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Bognor View Post
    To the citizens of the United States of America, from Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II

    In light of your failure to nominate competent candidates for President of the USA and thus to govern yourselves, we hereby give notice of the revocation of your independence, effective immediately. (You should look up 'revocation' in the Oxford English Dictionary.). Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II will resume monarchical duties over all states, commonwealths, and territories (except North Dakota, which she does not fancy). Your new Prime Minister, Teresa May, will appoint a Governor for America without the need for further elections.

    Congress and the Senate will be disbanded. A questionnaire may be circulated next year to determine whether any of you noticed. To aid in the transition to a British Crown dependency, the following rules are introduced with immediate effect:

    -----------------------
    1. The letter 'U' will be reinstated in words such as 'colour,' 'favour,' 'labour' and 'neighbour.' Likewise, you will learn to spell 'doughnut' without skipping half the letters, and the suffix '-ize' will be replaced by the suffix '-ise.' Generally, you will be expected to raise your vocabulary to acceptable levels. (look up 'vocabulary').

    ------------------------
    2. Using the same twenty-seven words interspersed with filler noises such as ''like' and 'you know' is an unacceptable and inefficient form of communication. There is no such thing as U.S. English. We will let Microsoft know on your behalf. The Microsoft spell-checker will be adjusted to take into account the reinstated letter 'u'' and the elimination of '-ize.'

    -------------------
    3. July 4th will no longer be celebrated as a holiday.

    -----------------
    4. You will learn to resolve personal issues without using guns, lawyers, or therapists. The fact that you need so many lawyers and therapists shows that you're not quite ready to be independent. Guns should only be used for shooting grouse. If you can't sort things out without suing someone or speaking to a therapist, then you're not ready to shoot grouse.

    ----------------------
    5. Therefore, you will no longer be allowed to own or carry anything more dangerous than a vegetable peeler. Although a permit will be required if you wish to carry a vegetable peeler in public.

    ----------------------
    6. All intersections will be replaced with roundabouts, and you will start driving on the left side with immediate effect. At the same time, you will go metric with immediate effect and without the benefit of conversion tables. Both roundabouts and metrication will help you understand the British sense of humour.

    --------------------
    7. The former USA will adopt UK prices on petrol (which you have been calling gasoline) of roughly $10/US gallon. Get used to it.

    -------------------
    8. You will learn to make real chips. Those things you call French fries are not real chips, and those things you insist on calling potato chips are properly called crisps. Real chips are thick cut, fried in animal fat, and dressed not with catsup but with vinegar.

    -------------------
    9. The cold, tasteless stuff you insist on calling beer is not actually beer at all. Henceforth, only proper British Bitter will be referred to as beer, and European brews of known and accepted provenance will be referred to as Lager. South African beer is also acceptable, as they are pound for pound the greatest sporting nation on earth and it can only be due to the beer. They are also part of the British Commonwealth - see what it did for them. American brands will be referred to as Near-Frozen Gnat's Urine, so that all can be sold without risk of further confusion.

    ---------------------
    10. Hollywood will be required occasionally to cast English actors as good guys. Hollywood will also be required to cast English actors to play English characters. Watching Andie Macdowell attempt English dialect in Four Weddings and a Funeral was an experience akin to having one's ears removed with a cheese grater.

    ---------------------
    11. You will cease playing American football. There is only one kind of proper football; you call it soccer. Those of you brave enough will, in time, be allowed to play rugby (which has some similarities to American football, but does not involve stopping for a rest every twenty seconds or wearing full kevlar body armour like a bunch of nancies).

    ---------------------
    12. Further, you will stop playing baseball. It is not reasonable to host an event called the World Series for a game which is not played outside of America. Since only 2.1% of you are aware there is a world beyond your borders, your error is understandable. You will learn cricket, and we will let you face the South Africans first to take the sting out of their deliveries.

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    13.. You must tell us who killed JFK. It's been driving us mad.

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    14. An internal revenue agent (i.e. tax collector) from Her Majesty's Government will be with you shortly to ensure the acquisition of all monies due (backdated to 1776).

    ---------------
    15. Daily Tea Time begins promptly at 4 p.m. with proper cups, with saucers, and never mugs, with high quality biscuits (cookies) and cakes; plus strawberries (with cream) when in season.

    God Save the Queen!
    Brilliant

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    Maybe it's a good thing HRC didn't win. What sort of mess would she have made on the world stage if she couldn't even properly rig an election against Trump ?

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