Play Off Chase

[S-Clarke]

3 minutes ago, Doctoroncall said:

The other aspect is dealing with the pressure if the team do get into the playoffs. Can they remain there?

Pressure is an interesting point, last night by all accounts was a team playing without any real pressure. 3-0 down at HT, nothing position in the league - nothing to lose, just go all out and give it a shot and see what happens.

We'll certainly encounter some 'pressure' if we do remain in the conversation over the next few weeks, and I'm still not 100% convinced we have the players or the coaching setup who have the experience to handle the pressure - but last night at least showed they have some character and fire in their bellies.

Edited yesterday at 10:46 by S-Clarke

[Pamplemousse]

Opta's supercomputer now has us finishing 6th at the end of the season. 

https://theanalyst.com/competition/english-championship/table

[saintant]

3 hours ago, JustinR said:

Agree with that. Stewart played a part in each goal I think. He pulled defenders away from Manning, so he had an easy finish. 

When Arma wasn't scoring he offered little

Stewart actually got a little flick on the ball leading to Manning's goal so should go down as an assist.

[saintant]

3 hours ago, Chez said:

my concern is that we might play like we did in the first half against Leicester in some of the games coming up, but because we aren't playing against Leicester each time, the second half opposition capitulation doesn't occur.  We were really poor. Maybe the odd bad display is OK. We probably can afford to lose one or two and still make 6th so long as we win the others.

It's a difficult one because our system falls down badly unless we have a big guy up front and the two we have are struggling with fitness. If we have to start Archer again then chances are we'll see more poor first halves although hopefully not as bad as last night.

[badgerx16]

6 minutes ago, saintant said:

It's a difficult one because our system falls down badly unless we have a big guy up front and the two we have are struggling with fitness. If we have to start Archer again then chances are we'll see more poor first halves although hopefully not as bad as last night.

Play Quarshie at CB and put Captain Jack up top.

[SNSUN]

38 minutes ago, Pamplemousse said:

Opta's supercomputer now has us finishing 6th at the end of the season. 

https://theanalyst.com/competition/english-championship/table

Hmm. Personally I think Birmingham will finish higher up in the table than that, and Norwich too. I also think Ipswich will get autos over Coventry. I think Stoke and Watford finish lower, Sheffield United higher. I also, reluctantly, personally think Portsmouth will finish above Leicester and WBA.

But then I am no supercomputer and am basing it off recent form and hunches more than anything. I'd take 6th with bells on though.

[Chez]

25 minutes ago, saintant said:

It's a difficult one because our system falls down badly unless we have a big guy up front and the two we have are struggling with fitness. If we have to start Archer again then chances are we'll see more poor first halves although hopefully not as bad as last night.

We have this FA cup game to rest Stewart and get Larin a bit fitter, so that helps. But you are right, we need to find a way of maximising Stewart + Larin. Until we do, Archer will have to have a role. 

We've got four midweek games plus the Easter weekend. Not sure if Larin will be fit enough to start the QPR game in two weeks time. He should be fit enough by WBA, so long as he stays clear of injuries. 

SAT Leicester

SAT Charlton
TUE QPR
SAT Sheff Wed

SAT Norwich
WED WBA
SAT Coventry

SAT Oxford

FRI Ipswich
MON Wreham

SAT Derby

SAT Swansea
TUE Bristol
SAT Blackburn

SAT Preston

 

 

[Chez]

59 minutes ago, Pamplemousse said:

Opta's supercomputer now has us finishing 6th at the end of the season. 

https://theanalyst.com/competition/english-championship/table

After taking Stoke apart, I thought we would make 6th. Would be very happy with that considering just how poor we were from the Norwich to Hull games.

[Saint86]

1 hour ago, Pamplemousse said:

Opta's supercomputer now has us finishing 6th at the end of the season. 

https://theanalyst.com/competition/english-championship/table

I mean, don't get me wrong - i'd take it... but the reality is that Convetry aren't going up and Lampard is going to bottle this hard.

Besides, we're doing a McDermot inspired push for the title...

[Saint Garrett]

19 hours ago, Chez said:

We have this FA cup game to rest Stewart and get Larin a bit fitter, so that helps. But you are right, we need to find a way of maximising Stewart + Larin. Until we do, Archer will have to have a role. 

We've got four midweek games plus the Easter weekend. Not sure if Larin will be fit enough to start the QPR game in two weeks time. He should be fit enough by WBA, so long as he stays clear of injuries. 

SAT Leicester

SAT Charlton
TUE QPR
SAT Sheff Wed

SAT Norwich
WED WBA
SAT Coventry

SAT Oxford

FRI Ipswich
MON Wreham

SAT Derby

SAT Swansea
TUE Bristol
SAT Blackburn

SAT Preston

 

 

Thing is when you're on a good run you think best case, and when you're on a shit run you think worst case...I think you need around 75 points to get into the playoffs generally....

We should beat:

Charlton (H)
QPR (H)
Sheff Wed (A)
WBA (A)
Oxford (H)
Blackburn (H)

That's 18 points - taking us to 64 points

That leaves 
Norwich (H)
Coventry (A)
Ipswich (H)
Wrexham (A)
Derby (H)
Swansea (A)
Bristol City (A)
Preston (A)

We should be capable of getting another 10-15 points from these games.

The league really isnt very good this year IMO, and we are capable of beating anyone. The only team that's looked really decent against us really is Boro. Ultimately, if we don't manage to get 30 points from those fixtures, then we don't deserve to go up anyway.

Now how many do we need for autos...

Edited 10 hours ago by Saint Garrett

[saintwbu]

Birmingham and Stoke now ‘officially’ below us after the last two night’s results. That Leicester result really could be season defining. Preston v Watford this weekend meaning either Preston remain in touching distance, or Watford stay below us.

[goodymatt]

It’s a shame we can’t take the momentum into a championship game this weekend, when you’re on a run you just want the games to keep coming. Although managing minutes of LND amongst others might be what the doctor ordered.

Opta currently have us as favourites to sneak into 6th place with a 26.52% chance of making the playoffs. It’s there for us, hopefully we can avoid another slump and make it. We’d be sitting there comfortably without those two long runs with just the one win, made it so much harder than it needed to be.

Edited 8 hours ago by goodymatt

[Jack]

We’re a really unpredictable side this season, either consistently shit or consistently winning. 

2 wins in 13 (Still)

6 wins in 7 (New manager bounce)

0 wins in 7 (Tonda found out) 

4 wins in 5 (Back 4, proper goalkeeper)

Even in this latest run we’ve been pretty poor at times but got the job done, just don’t think we’re that far away from putting together another stinking run if things start going against us. Hope I’m wrong, on paper the next 3 are very winnable and if we do, maybe I’ll start to believe it’s on. 

[Chez]

1 hour ago, Jack said:

We’re a really unpredictable side this season, either consistently shit or consistently winning. 

2 wins in 13 (Still)

6 wins in 7 (New manager bounce)

0 wins in 7 (Tonda found out) 

4 wins in 5 (Back 4, proper goalkeeper)

Even in this latest run we’ve been pretty poor at times but got the job done, just don’t think we’re that far away from putting together another stinking run if things start going against us. Hope I’m wrong, on paper the next 3 are very winnable and if we do, maybe I’ll start to believe it’s on. 

Did we ever work out why things went from ripping teams apart under Tonda to no wins in seven?

 

[Saint Garrett]

45 minutes ago, Chez said:

Did we ever work out why things went from ripping teams apart under Tonda to no wins in seven?

 

Pretty awful opposition
Arma turned into a beast for a month dropping deep (teams stopped that happening)
Azaz was involved in most things
Fellows was causing all sorts of problems.
We were massively taking our chances / exceeding our xG...

After that, we stopped taking our chances, had to find a new way of attacking, and Arma turned to shit again.

Back 4 - game on...

[Jack]

40 minutes ago, Chez said:

Did we ever work out why things went from ripping teams apart under Tonda to no wins in seven?

 

I think we were just a bit of a one trick pony and it was easy to work out and shut down:

Knock it around a bit, find THB in space, reverse/disguised ball into the middle where Arma dropped into space, all of a sudden the opposition were running towards their own goal and we had the likes of Fellows and Scienza going in the right direction. But as soon as those passes were shut down, we had no out ball and no target man, just knocked it around until losing it. But with the back 5 we’d often lose it with our midfield the wrong side of the ball and/or outnumbered in the middle. And with far too much space behind the wing backs which everyone targeted. Plus some mental weakness and lack of desire/effort when the going got tough. 

These days generally when we lose possession we do so further up the pitch, with defenders in a better shape, and recover and win second balls more often (Leicester first half aside). That’s how I see it anyway with very limited tactical knowledge. 

[Jack]

Not to mention we’ve now got a GK who at least looks to take the pressure off his back 4, and keeps a few shots out. I think our heads were dropping a lot when soft goals were going through Bazunu. This squad doesn’t need extra excuses to hide behind 

[Chez]

4 minutes ago, Jack said:

I think we were just a bit of a one trick pony and it was easy to work out and shut down:

Knock it around a bit, find THB in space, reverse/disguised ball into the middle where Arma dropped into space, all of a sudden the opposition were running towards their own goal and we had the likes of Fellows and Scienza going in the right direction. But as soon as those passes were shut down, we had no out ball and no target man, just knocked it around until losing it. But with the back 5 we’d often lose it with our midfield the wrong side of the ball and/or outnumbered in the middle. And with far too much space behind the wing backs which everyone targeted. Plus some mental weakness and lack of desire/effort when the going got tough. 

These days generally when we lose possession we do so further up the pitch, with defenders in a better shape, and recover and win second balls more often (Leicester first half aside). That’s how I see it anyway with very limited tactical knowledge. 

Nice analysis. I was away watching the Ashes so missed that period of games. I put our defeats down to my lack of attention 😉

I wonder now that we have a settled side and formation opponents might work us out again? Is there enough variety in our game? The subs during the week improved us in terms of individual performances but also changed our patterns of play a little too which flummuxed Leicester. Keeping a settled side is usually a good thing, but it may be no bad thing for us to keep the back four but change the players further forward every now and then. I am sure injuries and tiredness will force that anyway.

 

 

[Chez]

12 minutes ago, Saint Garrett said:

After that, we stopped taking our chances, had to find a new way of attacking, and Arma turned to shit again.

Back 4 - game on...

Taking chances is crucial. You can play like shit, but if your goal scorers are red hot, they can get you out of jail. 

I think having some fullbacks fit allowing us to play four at the back is really important. I really have no faith in five at the back. It worked for Koeman and RM to stop the rot, and I can understand using it against someone like City, but we should not be playing it when we have midfielders better than our opponents. Having a target man up front also key. We have made it far too easy for opposing CBs.

We have very few injuries now (assuming Peretz can play), we are on a wining run, confidence should be pretty high and a come back win should really bring the team together. There are no excuses now. The head coach and players have to make 6th place happen. 

[Jack]

11 minutes ago, Chez said:

Nice analysis. I was away watching the Ashes so missed that period of games. I put our defeats down to my lack of attention 😉

I wonder now that we have a settled side and formation opponents might work us out again? Is there enough variety in our game? The subs during the week improved us in terms of individual performances but also changed our patterns of play a little too which flummuxed Leicester. Keeping a settled side is usually a good thing, but it may be no bad thing for us to keep the back four but change the players further forward every now and then. I am sure injuries and tiredness will force that anyway.

 

 

I think, or hope, that the way we currently set up just allows us to win games by having better players than the majority of opponents. As long as we work hard enough, we should be too good for a lot of teams. The previous formation completely nullified too many of our best players and exposed our dodgy defence. We’re so much more solid with the extra man in midfield rather than in defence 

[goodymatt]

 

[Saint86]

3 hours ago, Jack said:

We’re a really unpredictable side this season, either consistently shit or consistently winning. 

2 wins in 13 (Still)

6 wins in 7 (New manager bounce)

0 wins in 7 (Tonda found out) 

4 wins in 5 (Back 4, proper goalkeeper)

Even in this latest run we’ve been pretty poor at times but got the job done, just don’t think we’re that far away from putting together another stinking run if things start going against us. Hope I’m wrong, on paper the next 3 are very winnable and if we do, maybe I’ll start to believe it’s on. 

4 wins in 5... partly down to Peretz, but signifianctly down to abandoning 5 at the back and adopting a proper footballing tactic with a target man and out ball, and pushing our 3 best creative players (scienza, azaz, fellows) into their actual positions and allowing them to play off each other and the central striker (pinning the defence).

[SNSUN]

16 minutes ago, goodymatt said:

 

Despite being only 4 points off before Leicester, it seems only now people are starting to take notice. Yes we've been inconsistent, at times rubbish and even our own fans were still talking about a relegation battle only a month ago but this League has been poor this season and we've never been far from going on a run into the play-offs. Even Swansea in 15th are only 5 points off, have won a few games recently and have a goal scoring striker. Hell it's unlikely but even Norwich in 16th are in brilliant form and even they're only 8 away. 

The League is wide open. Even Hull and Milwall and, if they go on a bad run which i don't think they will, even Ipswich can still be caught by teams behind them. We're not all just fighting for the Wrexham spot but for all the play-off spots currently, certainly 3 of them.

But being noticed is what makes me, as a fan, a bit uneasy. I feel up until now we've been sneaking up the table under the guise of being mid-table because of the teams on similar points ahead of us. Now the pressure starts to come. Do we have the players to cope with a bit of pressure, with being noticed?

The Leicester turnaround suggests we might. That comeback signalled character, belief, unity, and showed that they understand that we have something worth fighting for. I bet they are on cloud 9 right now. We have the better squad on paper, we're in form, and we've now proven we can fight for results.

We are very much in the play-off race.

[Jack]

11 minutes ago, Saint86 said:

4 wins in 5... partly down to Peretz, but signifianctly down to abandoning 5 at the back and adopting a proper footballing tactic with a target man and out ball, and pushing our 3 best creative players (scienza, azaz, fellows) into their actual positions and allowing them to play off each other and the central striker (pinning the defence).

I’d say Peretz has been a big factor. 2 of those 4 wins required the clean sheet as they were 1-0, and he made a couple of excellent saves at Stoke to make that relatively easy going. I think he gives the back 4 the confidence they need, rather than them needing to deal with absolutely everything as Bazunu would be glued to his line. 
 

The rest of it, totally agree. 

Edited 4 hours ago by Jack

[Saint86]

1 hour ago, Jack said:

I’d say Peretz has been a big factor. 2 of those 4 wins required the clean sheet as they were 1-0, and he made a couple of excellent saves at Stoke to make that relatively easy going. I think he gives the back 4 the confidence they need, rather than them needing to deal with absolutely everything as Bazunu would be glued to his line. 
 

The rest of it, totally agree. 

That's fair enough, but honestly its not just down to Peretz. The formation change, and the tactical difference between a target man and archer/aa are big factors in our upturn in form.

Oppo shots on target from total No. shots, xG, formation/setup:

(W 4-3) Leicester - 3 from 8 total and 0.65xG (4-2-3-1, Archer 1st half, Target MAN second half - with Leicester almost entirely nullified 2nd half)

(W 1-0) Watford - 2 from 11 total and 0.68xG (4-2-3-1, target man)

(W 2-0)Stoke - 3 from 10 total, and 0.87xG (4-2-3-1, target man)

(D 1-1) Portsmouth - 3 or 2 from 14 total, and 1.66xG (the goal was handball, so 2shots on target in truth, and really a significantly reduced xG given handled basically on the goal line) ( 4-2-3-1, AA)

************** transition to 4-3-2-1 **************

(W 1-0) Sheffield united - 4 from 16 total, and 1.04xG (3-4-2-1, Target man)

(L 1-2) Hull - 3 from 9 total and 0.62xG (3-4-2-1, AA) - we had 22 shots and tbh should never have lost this game, not great from Peretz in truth, but was only his 2nd game for us (Doncaster in the cup being his debut).

************** Peretz **************

(L 0-4) Boro - 5 from 22 total, and 2.27xG (3-4-2-1, AA)

(D 0-0) Millwall - 3 from 12 total and 1.5xG (3-4-2-1, Archer) 

(D 1-1) Birmingham(a)- 4 from 20 total and 1.71xG (3-4-2-1, AA)

(L 1-2) Oxford - 6 from 17 total, and 0.92xG (3-4-2-1, AA).

For me, the general trend there is that 5 at the back results in us struggling to get up the pitch and break out of presses, we struggle to retain possession in damaging areas away from our 3rd, and generally it allows the opposition to push up and come on to us more. This is worsened by playing a smaller target man who struggles to hold up the ball or provide an outball. The net result of that is us leaking more shots against, more shots on target against, and giving up more higher quality (higher xG) chances against.

With 4-2-3-1, and particularly when we play a target man, it gives us greater strength in midfield and allows our 3 best creative players to have the ball in and around the opposition half - which allows us to keep possession in a more meaningful way further up the pitch and towards the opposition 3rd where we carry more threat. With a target man it also allows us to mix it up and break out of opposition presses or for us to counter - and in a better way that the 3-4-2-1 formation as we can centrally hold up the ball, have 2 proper wingers there for width (as opposed to wing backs that are busy defending our own box), and azaz in behind.

As for Peretz, i like him, but he has limited impact on the numbers of shots against or the xG of those chances. I agree he's an upgrade on Baz and has made key saves, but equally the hull games and Leicester games indicate that he's still more than capable of a bad day at the office and letting in chances.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited 3 hours ago by Saint86

[JohnnyShearer2.0]

6 hours ago, Jack said:

We’re a really unpredictable side this season, either consistently shit or consistently winning. 

2 wins in 13 (Still)

6 wins in 7 (New manager bounce)

0 wins in 7 (Tonda found out) 

4 wins in 5 (Back 4, proper goalkeeper)

Even in this latest run we’ve been pretty poor at times but got the job done, just don’t think we’re that far away from putting together another stinking run if things start going against us. Hope I’m wrong, on paper the next 3 are very winnable and if we do, maybe I’ll start to believe it’s on. 

Damn man, what a waste of games with Still, too many draws and losses in there.