The Run-In: 2014/15 - The Race for Europe

Just writing that title felt mad, but here we go...

Let it not be a question of 'why?' - but a question of 'why not?'

Anyone bold enough to try and predict the results (W/D/L), give a points forecast and say where they think we'll finish?

Looking at those fixtures I don't see why we can't keep it up a while longer yet...

Looking at that list of fixtures we've already won our hardest home game and our third and forth hardest away games for the second half of the season. On that basis we should be looking at a minimum of 14 wins and 2 losses, 84 points

By my rough reckoning there's 38 points to be had at worst. No idea if that will be enough though.

By my rough reckoning there's 38 points to be had at worst. No idea if that will be enough though.

So 12 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses? If that's a worst case scenario I'll take it right now! That'd be 80 points - champions league by a mile and would have been enough to win the league in 2010/11!

well, a few of the other sides in the top 7 or so play each other a fair few times in the last 5 games or so.

our last 5 games have us;

Spurs (h)

Sunderland (a)

Leicester (a)

Villa (h)

City (a)

so, a 3 away games in the last 4, no doubt ALL teams will be playing for something

impossible to predict

the double home games with West Ham and Liverpool are vital too.

Don't forget the huge luck element in football. Even with our squad intact and playing well, it's highly likely that there will be a couple of games where we dominate possession and chances, but still lose.

- ball hits woodwork instead of going in

- refs give odd decisions

- strange in-the-moment combinations lead to something unexpected against the run of play

- etc, etc, etc.

As with all the other chasing teams, we're highly likely to drop at least some points at home. Expect it, and it won't hurt so much when it happens!

But what's clear is we have a real shot at glory. My prediction (guess): win 9, lose 3, draw 4 for 31 more points. 73 may just be enough.

also, liverpool have had a good run of games and have been picking up points in the last month or so

that changes soon when they play Everton (a), Spurs (h), Saints (a) and City (h) in february

that is with the Europa league games in between

will see if they have turned a corner or not

Home games are key. 8 of those. Need 18 points at least I expect, avoiding defeat to Spurs and Liverpool, ideally. If we do that then an away record of 3-2-3 would probably be enough.

Didn't the BBC have a predictor thing back in the days when we were chasing promotion?

Didn't the BBC have a predictor thing back in the days when we were chasing promotion?

Try this

http://www.thesportspredictor.com/#/predictor/pro?_f_mp=true

also, liverpool have had a good run of games and have been picking up points in the last month or so

that changes soon when they play Everton (a), Spurs (h), Saints (a) and City (h) in february

that is with the Europa league games in between

 

will see if they have turned a corner or not

I noticed that they're second in the form table for the last six games (guess who's top ). However, the average league position of the teams they've played in those six games was 14th. For us it was 7th!

Just a little reminder of our festive nightmare against the top clubs:

http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/matchday/form-guide.html

will also add that chelsea play United, arsenal and liverpool after we play them. Which can only be a good thing

Try this

 

http://www.thesportspredictor.com/#/predictor/pro?_f_mp=true

I did the smart prediction (based on relative team strengths) and got:

D 1-1

W 1-4

W 2-1

W 2-0

W 1-2

W 2-0

L 1-0

W 2-1

W 0-2

W 2-0

W 0-4

W 3-0

W 0-3

W 0-3

W 4-0

L 3-2

We'd win the title with that run surely would definitely take the 2-0 and 3-0 home wins over liverscouse and spuds respectively!

will also add that chelsea play United, arsenal and liverpool after we play them. Which can only be a good thing

Go Chelsea.

Just a little reminder of our festive nightmare against the top clubs:

http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/matchday/form-guide.html

Remarkable to think that had Everton beaten us just before Xmas (likely many of us predicted) they would have been within 2 points of us, yet less than a month later there is a 20 (yes 20!) point gap between the teams.

I used that site, tried to be as realistic and objective as possible...

W - 9

D - 2

L - 5

That's 29 points from a possible 48. Given how we've gone this season, doable, surely?

Gives us 72 points and 4th, 3 points ahead of Arse who are on 68. Worth noting that Everton finished on 72 points last year, but missed out as Arsenal got 79 points in 4th. Got a hunch it's not going to be near that total this year though. We also have 1 more point and a better GD than everton did at this stage last season.

How the hell is it even possible to be contemplating this. I still can't get my head around it. I can't get my head around people saying that we're now one of the best teams in the country, it doesn't compute just yet.

Don't forget the huge luck element in football.

I've done a scientific(!) and (attempting to be objective) study into our "luck" in games so far this season and have concluded that we're two points worse off than we "should be". Therefore if we continue with the same luck we've had so far we would end up on 72 points. If the luck "evens itself out" over the course of the season we'd end up on 76 points. Keep it up Saints!

Calculations:

Chelsea -1 (even though they only had one shot on target we had our backs to the wall for the whole second half)

Man City 0

Man Utd 1 (should have won at home, great away performance but can see how it could have ended a draw)

Spurs 0 (Mane should have equalised but think they just about edged it)

Arsenal 0 (we had terrible luck with injuries but think they deserved the win on the balance of play despite the way they won it in the end)

Liverpool 1 (thought we edged it, but they were clinical, we definitely created enough chances to draw)

West Ham 0 (maybe we were lucky to play them with some of their star performers out but it was comprehensive)

Swansea -2 (Bony getting sent off changed the game entirely - they were on top beforehand)

Stoke 0 (fairly comfortable)

Newcastle -2 (think they deserved a draw yesterday despite us creating the better chances and the fact the penalty incident was irrelevant because of the handball two seconds earlier)

Crystal Palace 0 (fairly straightforward win other than a bit of pressure after we scored our first)

Everton 0 (comprehensive)

Aston Villa 2 (have they even scored since we gifted them that goal?!)

West Brom 0 (dour 0-0)

Sunderland 0 ()

Burnley 3 (had Tadic scored that penalty pretty sure we'd have won with relative ease - their goal resulted from a freak set of circumstances)

Hull 0 (they never looked like getting back into it after Wanyama scored from the half-way line (poetic license ))

QPR 0 (perhaps we were lucky to score a wonder goal minutes after they equalised but we were on top)

Leicester 0 (relatively straightforward even though it took a while for the goals to come)

Remarkable to think that had Everton beaten us just before Xmas (likely many of us predicted) they would have been within 2 points of us, yet less than a month later there is a 20 (yes 20!) point gap between the teams.

That is remarkable! It shows how quickly it can change

Looking back over those games of the 16 goals we've conceded 4 have been the worst kind of defensive howlers or horrific bad luck (Newcastle away, Man U home, Aston Villa away, Burnley away).

I can only think of Hull, Chelsea and Arsenal that conceded defensive howlers to us (although they were more a combination of our good play and their mistakes rather than being laid on a plate).

I think we would need 27 more points (taking us to 69) to have a chance of the CL. 65 is the average required, and the chasing pack aren't significantly above their usual points level after 22 games, but there are more chasers than usual - and of a higher quality (as you might expect given that a 'new' challenger like us has forced its way into the reckoning).

I still feel we would have to get quite lucky to finish above three of Man Utd, Tottenham, Arsenal and Liverpool. I think that the first three of those especially are well capable of going on a storming run and taking it out of our hands. But if they don't, 27 more points should do it - 8 wins and 3 draws. At our current performance level, and with lots of good players to come back, that is definitely conceivable. Getting ourselves 7 points from the next three would give us an even stronger platform. Whatever happens, it's astonishing to look at the league table after 22 games and to see our name up there. The next few years look bright whatever happens until May.

I've done a scientific(!) and (attempting to be objective) study into our "luck" in games so far this season...................

If the luck "evens itself out" over the course of the season we'd end up on 76 points.

Admirable work but the problem is that there is no scientific basis to 'luck'. We all know the old rule - toss a coin ten times and if it comes down 'heads' ten times, the chances of it being 'heads' on the 11th time is still 50/50. There is no evidence to show that luck evens out over time. In football, teams such as Chelsea suffer or benefit from luck just like everyone else but if there is more quality in the team the incidents will tend to have less of a negative impact because the quality team will have more ball possession and more attempts on goal.

There is no evidence to show that luck evens out over time.

Agree with everything else you say and a football season is too short to allow for luck to properly even itself out but luck does even itself out over time. If you toss a fair coin a million times then there's a 67% chance you'll get between 499,500 and 500,500 heads.

Also, while tossing a coin an 11th time after it being heads 10 times is indeed 50:50, getting 10 heads in a row in the first place is only a 0.098% chance. Even getting 1 head and 9 tails is only a 1% chance and 2 heads and 8 tails a 4% chance.

I'm fun at parties

69 points would have got us 6th last season. I can't see us getting much more than that to be honest.

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69 points would have got us 6th last season. I can't see us getting much more than that to be honest.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This season, 69 should be enough for 4th place so I'll take that.

Predictions:

Swansea (H) - W 2-0

QPR (A) - W 3-1

West Ham (H) - D 1-1

Liverpool (H) - W 2-1

West Brom (A) - W 1-0

Crystal Palace (H) - W 2-0

Chelsea (A) - L 2-1

Burnley (H) - W 2-0

Everton (A) - L 2-1

Hull (H) - W 3-0

Stoke (A) - D 1-1

Spurs (H) - D 2-2

Sunderland (A) - W 1-0

Leicester (A) - W 3-1

Villa (H) - W 3-1

Man City (A) L 3-1

33 points + 42 already obtained = 75 total. Probably enough for top 4.

I think it's fair to say that the contenders for the top 4 are now clear, and will be us, Man Utd, Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool. Don't see West Ham mounting a challenge for top 4 and expect them to finish 8th.

We have 5 games left against current top 8 sides, 3 at home and 2 away. Here are our rivals' remaining 16 games and number left against top 8 teams.

Man Utd: Leicester (H), West Ham (A), Burnley (H), Swansea (A), Sunderland (H), Newcastle (A), Spurs (H), Liverpool (A), Villa (H), Man City (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (A), West Brom (H), Palace (A), Arsenal (H), Hull (A).

Games against top 8 sides = 6 (3 H & 3 A)

Arsenal: Villa (H), Spurs (A), Leicester (H), Palace (A), Everton (H), QPR (A), West Ham (H), Newcastle (A), Liverpool (H), Burnley (A), Sunderland (H), Chelsea (H), Hull (A), Swansea (H), Man Utd (A), West Brom (H).

Games against top 8 sides = 5 (3 H & 2 A)

Spurs: West Brom (A), Arsenal (H), West Ham (H), QPR (A), Swansea (H), Man Utd (A), Leicester (H), Burnley (A), Villa (H), Newcastle (A), Saints (A), Man City (H), Stoke (A), Hull (H), Everton (H).

Games against top 8 sides = 5 (3 H & 2 A)

Liverpool: West Ham (H), Everton (A), Saints (A), Man City (H), Burnley (H), Swansea (A), Man Utd (H), Arsenal (A), Newcastle (H), Hull (A), West Brom (A), QPR (H), Chelsea (A), Palace (H), Stoke (A).

Games against top 8 sides = 6 (3 H & 3 A)

Last season we got 14 points from the corresponding fixtures (taking out QPR, Leicester and Burnley) We won 4, lost 7 and drew 2 of them. Matching that would give us 56 points from 35 games (average 1.6 points per game). If we match that against the three promotes sides (5 points near enough)that brings the total to 61 points. Almost certainly not enough for top 4 but means we beat our record and probably get 6th or 7th. For me that would still feel disappointing after getting this far.

Last season we got 14 points from the corresponding fixtures (taking out QPR, Leicester and Burnley) We won 4, lost 7 and drew 2 of them. Matching that would give us 56 points from 35 games (average 1.6 points per game). If we match that against the three promotes sides (5 points near enough)that brings the total to 61 points. Almost certainly not enough for top 4 but means we beat our record and probably get 6th or 7th. For me that would still feel disappointing after getting this far.

How can you be disappointed with 6th or 7th? That punches above our weight.

How can you be disappointed with 6th or 7th? That punches above our weight.

Fair point, but we've been higher than that all season, as strange as it sounds it would be disappointing. I wouldn't be too downhearted finishing 5th if it meant being above Spurs and Liverpool. The pressure will really be on us this weekend, it's hard to see any of our rivals slipping up. The weekend after the North London derby is the early game.

By my rough reckoning there's 38 points to be had at worst. No idea if that will be enough though.

I think you are too optimistic about the worst, but 80 points will be more than enough.

69 points would have got us 6th last season. I can't see us getting much more than that to be honest.

 

 

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I addressed this issue in my blog.

http://redsloscf.blogspot.com/2015/01/doom-and-gloom.html

How can you be disappointed with 6th or 7th? That punches above our weight.

We are attempting to create a new weight for ourselves. If not this year, then when will we be able to do it.

We are attempting to create a new weight for ourselves. If not this year, then when will we be able to do it.

we wont this year and we wont in the next few years either

We are attempting to create a new weight for ourselves. If not this year, then when will we be able to do it.

No we're not.

Les and RK has said they want us to be the best team outside of the biggest spending teams. I'd say there are six of them, so 6th/7th is the "weight" we aspire to. In reality our "weight" is about top 14-8.

Doesn't mean we aren't striving for fourth, of course we are, but it does mean we won't be pis sing money away chasing it. If it happens it will happen because of excellent execution of the plan. Like, hopefully, this season.

I think we will obtain 28 points. Will that be enough, I don't know.

I am thinking about the top 6 though, not top 4. Beat Liverpool and Spurs and we will have a great chance.

How can you be disappointed with 6th or 7th? That punches above our weight.

I'd feel disappointed for two reasons. Firstly, 1.6 points per game over the remaining 16 matches would be a slip from the current average of 1.9 points per game. Given that we have played everyone once I'd like to think we can keep up the current average. Secondly because of the 7 teams that finished above us last season 4 are currently below us, with Everton 19 points and 9 places adrift. For me finishing 7th would only represent an improvement based on Everton's relative failure. I'd like to think, after last summer, that we can give Arsenal, Utd, Spurs or Liverpool a run for their money in a fight for 5th place.

I don't think we'll finish top 4 but would be delighted with 5th.

You can see why sports psychologists recommend only considering one game at a time (as does The Koeman). Just looking at that list makes me feel nervous, excited, and freaked out! And I don't have to play the darned games!

Swansea (H) - W

QPR (A) - W

West Ham (H) - W

Liverpool (H) - L

West Brom (A) - D

Crystal Palace (H) - W

Chelsea (A) - L

Burnley (H) - W

Everton (A) - D

Hull (H) - W

Stoke (A) - D

Spurs (H) - D

Sunderland (A) - L

Leicester (A) - W

Villa (H) - W

Man City (A) L

That gives us an additional 28 points to our current 42 - so 70 points touch and go for CL, but should be enough for a Europa spot

So it's a case of lose and win, so far. 3 points from 6, no change in GD.

Remarkable to think that had Everton beaten us just before Xmas (likely many of us predicted) they would have been within 2 points of us, yet less than a month later there is a 20 (yes 20!) point gap between the teams.

That's amazing. Shows how things can change very quickly. Positively or negatively.

Personally I think if we finish 5th that's a huge achievement. 4th still seems too much for me, a pessimist.

Swansea (H) - W

QPR (A) - W

West Ham (H) - W

Liverpool (H) - L

West Brom (A) - D

Crystal Palace (H) - W

Chelsea (A) - L

Burnley (H) - W

Everton (A) - D

Hull (H) - W

Stoke (A) - D

Spurs (H) - D

Sunderland (A) - L

Leicester (A) - W

Villa (H) - W

Man City (A) L

 

top half teams to play: 4

bottom half teams to play: 8

be awesome to get at least 4 points from West Ham and Liverpool and still be sitting most likely in the Top 4 with that 12 match schedule left.

Geeky Sunday post. If anyone is interested, this is the predicted finishing points, based on points per game ratio so far this season (rounded to nearest point):

1. Chelsea 89 points

2. Man City 79 points

3. Saints 71 points

4. Man Utd 70 points

5. Tottenham 68 points

6. Arsenal 67 points

7. Liverpool 62 points

8. West Ham 59 points

So looks like 70 points is about the magic figure for the top 4 (allowing for slight improvement in Tottenham and Arsenal PPG average). This is the Win/Loss/Draw ratio needed to reach 70 points from remaining 14 games:

Chelsea 3-5-6 (they'll be ok!)

Man City 6-3-5 or 5-6-3

Saints 7-4-3 or 8-1-5

Man Utd 7-5-2 or 8-2-4

Tottenham 7-6-1 or 8-3-3

Arsenal 8-4-2 or 9-1-4

Liverpool 9-4-1 or 10-1-3

West Ham 10-3-1

So conclusions from this: We're still in with a shout but still need 7 or 8 wins minimum. West Ham are pretty out of the top 4 race and there may come a point (Tuesday even!) where we actually really want Liverpool to beat the teams around us, such is their small margin for error over the rest of the season. I'd put our chances of top 4 at about 1/3 from my own gut feel.

The two factors these numbers don't really take into account are goal difference (we're sitting pretty) upcoming schedules, and Tottenham's, Arsenal's and Liverpool's are particularly gruelling over the next couple of months. I can't wait.

OK, using the prediction website I came up with the final table looking like this:

Pos Team Pld GD Pts

1 Chelsea 37 51 87

2 Man City 38 42 83

3 Southampton 38 38 77

4 Arsenal 38 33 76

5 Man Utd 38 36 68

6 Tottenham 38 14 68

7 Liverpool 38 12 63

8 West Ham 38 6 54

9 Everton 38 3 51

10 Stoke 38 -6 48

11 Swansea 38 -19 47

12 Newcastle 38 -12 45

13 C Palace 38 -15 39

14 West Brom 38 -17 37

15 Sunderland 38 -19 36

16 Aston Villa 38 -33 30

17 Hull 38 -25 29

18 Burnley 38 -26 29

19 Leicester 37 -27 28

20 QPR 38 -36 24

However, in a dream world where we go on to win every match, the final table will look like this:

Pos Team Pld GD Pts

1 Southampton 38 46 87

2 Chelsea 37 49 86

3 Man City 38 40 82

4 Arsenal 38 33 76

5 Man Utd 38 36 68

6 Tottenham 38 14 68

7 Liverpool 38 12 63

8 West Ham 38 6 54

9 Everton 38 2 50

10 Stoke 38 -8 47

11 Swansea 38 -19 47

12 Newcastle 38 -12 45

13 C Palace 38 -15 39

14 West Brom 38 -18 36

15 Sunderland 38 -19 36

16 Aston Villa 38 -33 30

17 Hull 38 -25 29

18 Burnley 38 -26 29

19 Leicester 37 -27 28

20 QPR 38 -36 24

Looking back over those games of the 16 goals we've conceded 4 have been the worst kind of defensive howlers or horrific bad luck (Newcastle away, Man U home, Aston Villa away, Burnley away).

 

I can only think of Hull, Chelsea and Arsenal that conceded defensive howlers to us (although they were more a combination of our good play and their mistakes rather than being laid on a plate).

Sunderland scored THREE OWN GOALS!

OK, using the prediction website I came up with the final table looking like this:

 

Pos Team Pld GD Pts

1 Chelsea 37 51 87

2 Man City 38 42 83

3 Southampton 38 38 77

4 Arsenal 38 33 76

5 Man Utd 38 36 68

6 Tottenham 38 14 68

7 Liverpool 38 12 63

8 West Ham 38 6 54

9 Everton 38 3 51

10 Stoke 38 -6 48

11 Swansea 38 -19 47

12 Newcastle 38 -12 45

13 C Palace 38 -15 39

14 West Brom 38 -17 37

15 Sunderland 38 -19 36

16 Aston Villa 38 -33 30

17 Hull 38 -25 29

18 Burnley 38 -26 29

19 Leicester 37 -27 28

20 QPR 38 -36 24

 

However, in a dream world where we go on to win every match, the final table will look like this:

 

Pos Team Pld GD Pts

1 Southampton 38 46 87

2 Chelsea 37 49 86

3 Man City 38 40 82

4 Arsenal 38 33 76

5 Man Utd 38 36 68

6 Tottenham 38 14 68

7 Liverpool 38 12 63

8 West Ham 38 6 54

9 Everton 38 2 50

10 Stoke 38 -8 47

11 Swansea 38 -19 47

12 Newcastle 38 -12 45

13 C Palace 38 -15 39

14 West Brom 38 -18 36

15 Sunderland 38 -19 36

16 Aston Villa 38 -33 30

17 Hull 38 -25 29

18 Burnley 38 -26 29

19 Leicester 37 -27 28

20 QPR 38 -36 24

 

What happened to Chelsea v Leicester? Was there some sort of abandonment?

Average points of remaining opponents

1 Chelsea 29.786

2 Arsenal 29.857

3 Manchester City 31.000

4 Southampton 31.214

4 Swansea City 31.214

6 Tottenham Hotspur 31.286

7 Sunderland 31.571

8 Newcastle United 31.857

9 Aston Villa 32.143

10 West Ham United 32.500

11 Queens Park Rangers 32.571

12 Manchester United 32.643

13 Hull City 33.214

14 Stoke City 33.286

15 Everton 33.429

16 Leicester City 33.643

17 West Bromwich Albion 34.357

18 Liverpool 34.714

19 Crystal Palace 35.429

20 Burnley 36.286

Liverpool have got a tough run of fixtures coming up and Man Utd have got some tricky ones left too, whereas us, Arsenal and Spurs have it slightly easier. Burnley's run in is horrific

Burnley's run in is horrific

Their next 8 games (maybe 9 if Everton sort themselves out) are terrible but their last 5 are all winnable. As long as they're not out of sight by then (which they shouldn't be, considering how crap the other teams down there have been), they'll still have a great chance of staying up.

What happened to Chelsea v Leicester? Was there some sort of abandonment?

It's Leicester v Chelsea, and it's not currently scheduled because Chelsea are playing in the Capital One Cup Final instead.

http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/matchday/matches/2014-2015/epl.match-preview.html/leicester-vs-chelsea

Spurs are playing Chelsea in the Capital One Cup Final, but their match with QPR has already been moved from the date of the Capital Cup Final and will be played on Saturday 7th March as both sides are out of the FA Cup and won't be playing in the 6th Round on that day.

http://www.qpr.co.uk/news/article/qpr-tottenham-hotspur-postponed-loftus-road-premier-league-2233389.aspx

Say we lose to Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea, Man City. Of the remaining games if we win all home games and get a point away that'll be 20pts bringing our season total to 65, probably not enough. So we'd still need something pretty special.