CWD Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 I was just having a read of the Sheffield Wednesday forum to see their thoughts on their bizarrely bad form, and I came across a thread from a couple of months back. It said that the most losses a team has suffered and still gained automatic promotion is 12. This got me thinking, we have so far lost 8 games (3 at home, 5 away). Can we now go the next 18 games without losing more than 4 times? I reckon we can, and we will need to. In fact, the way Bourno and Brighton are going, it may be even less than that. What do you think? how many points will we need from the remaining games? How many losses can we suffer before it becomes an impossible ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpine_saint Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 None. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nutwood2 Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 Two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWD Posted 16 February, 2011 Author Share Posted 16 February, 2011 None. There's no reason why that shouldn't happen, except that we're saints, so something will happen to make it difficult somewhere along the line! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buctootim Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 6 - as long as the other 12 are wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpine_saint Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 There's no reason why that shouldn't happen, except that we're saints, so something will happen to make it difficult somewhere along the line! zero defeats has to be our target; you cannot rationalise an allowance of defeats, because something will screw up and we will get an extra one that makes all the difference. I reckon we need 10 wins and 8 draws to be sure of 2nd place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 Realistically i think we need 12 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from our remaining games, that'll give us 87 points which should be comfortably enough. We could do without losing any of our games against Brighton, Bournemouth, Charlton and MK Dons though. A win saturday and a draw in the Bournemouth v Huddersfield game would be a fantastic weekend. it's still in our hands at the moment, win our games in hand and we go up automatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eaststander Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 11 wins = 33 points 3 draws = 3 points 4 loss = 0 points total = 36 points from 18 games or 2 points per game 48 +36 = 84 points - which doesn't feel enough. So suggest you do the maths until you are happy that we will go up. Then sit back and watch the reality. Unless of course we make a special case to the FL that we should be promoted on the basis of a prediction forecast. What will be will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doddisalegend Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 Well we lost nine last season plus three more if you count the -10 as three loses and we just missed out on playoffs let alone autos. so twevle might even be to high a number. Our rubbish start to this season (espeically Mr Wilkins Craptastic 0pts from 3 games if you include the Dons match) has meant we've being playing catch up for some time it also means every draw and loss now can really hurt us. We had our obligatory crap patch at the start of the season and in IMO we can't afford another one now. So no more losses for the rest of the season has got to be the aim (though I know that won't happen.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thorpie the sinner Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 None! and we will be promoted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 Last season we drew far too many games, 14 I think, 23 wins and 9 defeats. Those draws were where we failed. This season we're only at 6 draws so far,8 defeats and 14 wins. We could certainly afford to lose at least 2 maybe 3 more provided we win at least 14/15 of the others.If we start drawing too many games again we may have difficult in gaining automatic promotion even without losing a single game for the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colinjb Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 None! and we will be promoted! Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastleighhalo Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 The league is tighter this year than it has been for a while so perhaps not so many points will be required for auto promotion this time round... our target must still be to win this league tho regardless.. Brighton are making a great surge for the title at the mo but our aim is to catch them then all other arguments are null and void ... can we do it ?? ... too bloody right we can !! Get behind the team guys and support every one of them to make this happen... them new boys will prove the doubters wrong im sure IF they are supported in the right way ... 18 games and 54 points to play for ... BELIEF is the key word here .. give the players it and they will deliver. COYR !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sad saints fan Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 I think the results against teams around are the important factor. Wins against Bournemouth, Charlton(twice),MK Dons and Brighton would mean we could afford slip ups elseswhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 Anyone else nervous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 doing better than rivals since mgt change, in our own hands - but no idea what will be needed - more twists and turns yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 more twists and turns yet! That's what's making me nervous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VectisSaint Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 11 wins = 33 points 3 draws = 3 points 4 loss = 0 points total = 36 points from 18 games or 2 points per game 48 +36 = 84 points - which doesn't feel enough. So suggest you do the maths until you are happy that we will go up. Then sit back and watch the reality. Unless of course we make a special case to the FL that we should be promoted on the basis of a prediction forecast. What will be will be. As long as the 11 wins includes Brighton, Bournemouth and Charlton twice, then this should be enough. If we can avoid losing any of these 4 games it would be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toadhall Saint Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 Anyone else nervous? not yet - too many games to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saints-cris Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 I think this league is probably stronger than ever. I get a feeling that the teams around the playoffs and maybe 2nd place will be lower than most other seasons in this league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saint_stevo Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 shall we aim for None and take it from there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 shall we aim for None and take it from there? I thought Brighton got him....? (Coat. Fetched) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Cat Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 How many games we can afford to lose depends on how many points the teams around us drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 I think this league is probably stronger than ever. I get a feeling that the teams around the playoffs and maybe 2nd place will be lower than most other seasons in this league. I think last season was very tough. Wasn't it the highest points total for the fourth team in the playoffs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stmusicdude Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 None. What a stupid reply! Are you suggesting that if we lose again we will not achive any goals this season? such as top 2 or promotion? IF you are we can ALL pack up & go home now because we will lose again, so will brighton,bournmouth,huddersfield, so on & so forth .. Who are you kidding with 16 games to go in some cases 19 that these teams will win every game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 What a stupid reply! Are you suggesting that if we lose again we will not achive any goals this season? such as top 2 or promotion? IF you are we can ALL pack up & go home now because we will lose again, so will brighton,bournmouth,huddersfield, so on & so forth .. Who are you kidding with 16 games to go in some cases 19 that these teams will win every game It was a pretty standard worst case scenario from our resident agitator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 I think last season was very tough. Wasn't it the highest points total for the fourth team in the playoffs? Yup, and we were a further 7 points behind that in the end, though obviously the results of the last couple of games were affected by suddenly being in a nothing to win situation, and the Gillingham side wasn't what it would have been if we could still have made it. But that happens to someone every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry the Badger Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 Less than Huddersfield or Bournemouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saints foreva Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 I personally think these four results will cost us our promotion place come May: Saints 0-1 Plymouth Saints 1-1 Leyton Orient Saints 0-2 Rochdale Saints 0-0 Colchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 I personally think these four results will cost us our promotion place come May: Saints 0-1 Plymouth Saints 1-1 Leyton Orient Saints 0-2 Rochdale Saints 0-0 Colchester Logically as they've already happened, and we're still in with a chance of promotion, that can't be the case. Only results from this point forward can cost us - unless of course we win every match and it's still not enough points for us to be promoted (which is mathematically impossible). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wild-saint Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 What a stupid reply! Are you suggesting that if we lose again we will not achive any goals this season? such as top 2 or promotion? IF you are we can ALL pack up & go home now because we will lose again, so will brighton,bournmouth,huddersfield, so on & so forth .. Who are you kidding with 16 games to go in some cases 19 that these teams will win every game I think thats a reasonable answer. Can you imagine NC or NA accepting any other answer from a similar question? Set a standard and aim for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 I think thats a reasonable answer. Can you imagine NC or NA accepting any other answer from a similar question? Set a standard and aim for it. I'd expect the manager to SAY we can't afford to lose any more matches even if he knew perfectly well he was talking nonsense. None of us on here are forced ino that situation so we're able to discuss the number of matches we can realistically lose and still finish in the top 2. As for Cortese, I gave up trying to work out his logic quite some time ago. And for the record, just saying you won't lose any more games doesn't make it any more or less true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEVMAN Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 How many games we can afford to lose depends on how many points the teams around us drop. I agree as long as we stay in touch with the teams around us there is as much chance they will get the bums rush as us,i think automatic promotion will go down to the wire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professor Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 Its obviously misleading to look at defeats alone, what matters are wins. In theory a team could be undefeated, drawing every game to finish with 46 points and be relegated. The 4 consecutive wins after Xmas gave us a boost but since then, D, W, L, W is not good enough. Its always tempting to grasp at straws, such as Lallana has been out, but if this was a championship-winning team it would not be dependant on any one player. I'm not impressed by the two squad players brought in as making any difference. We do have a decent first 11, but I think its down to luck now - whether our best players can stay fit through a hard period. It shouldn't have come to this, though, the squad could have been properly strengthened and it wasn't, it was just propped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint J 77 Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 None! and we will be promoted! Even if we draw them all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowds Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 11wins, 4 draws and 3 loses IMO should see second asking as those loses aren't against Bournemouth, Brighton and Charlton.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stmusicdude Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 zero defeats has to be our target; you cannot rationalise an allowance of defeats, because something will screw up and we will get an extra one that makes all the difference. I reckon we need 10 wins and 8 draws to be sure of 2nd place. The question was What do you think? how many points will we need from the remaining games? How many losses can we suffer before it becomes an impossible ask? By replying NONE which you did, your clearly nailing your colours to the mast & saying if we loose we will not get promoted .. which was why I replied it was a stupid answer, because it's NOT what you mean .. as you have since clarified .. yes we should AIM for no loses & I am sure that is the aim, unless your trying to imply that NA sits & thinks ok we can lose this game .. etc I dont want us to lose, but we will .. so will ALL other teams in this league this season at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wade Garrett Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 If we can keep our top players fit (especially Lallana, Fonte and Chamberlain) I fancy us to go unbeaten for the rest of the season. We've had our sticky patch, onwards and upwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John B Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 11 wins = 33 points 3 draws = 3 points 4 loss = 0 points total = 36 points from 18 games or 2 points per game 48 +36 = 84 points - which doesn't feel enough. So suggest you do the maths until you are happy that we will go up. Then sit back and watch the reality. Unless of course we make a special case to the FL that we should be promoted on the basis of a prediction forecast. What will be will be. 84 will probably be enough to get into second position I would have thought I cannot see other clubs getting more than 84 apart from Brighton Spreading betting site is interesting http://bettingzone.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-one/total-points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corky morris Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 I keep looking at the predictor on the BBC & I cant get us past play offs. I think the most we can lose is 2, but as has been stated elsewhere the Charlton, Brighton & Bournemouth games will be the ultimate decider. But we will probably end up losing at Hartlepool or Colchester or somewhere like that. Those early season games & Brentford at home & Tranmere away are the ones that will cost us IMHO. That said, we have the ability to beat anyone in this league, but time will tell if we have the desire?????? Hope we do!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 In fact if you look at last year's tables Norwich and Leeds were both beyond 60 points after 30 games and 28 games respectively. Norwich took 32 points from their last 16 games and Leeds 28 from their last 18.By last season's reckoning we wouldn't even be in the play-off positions with 48 points from 28 games and Bournemouth wouldn't be anywhere near the automatic promotion places with 53 points from 30 games. This season seems to be totally atypical so far with no one putting points on the board on a constant basis apart from Brighton who are on roughly the same points/game ratio as Norwich last season. So in theory any combination of W/D/L that brings us 2.1 points a game will be more than enough to finish 2nd behind Brighton who for me are already promoted as were Norwich at this time last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpine_saint Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 What a stupid reply! Are you suggesting that if we lose again we will not achive any goals this season? such as top 2 or promotion? IF you are we can ALL pack up & go home now because we will lose again, so will brighton,bournmouth,huddersfield, so on & so forth .. Who are you kidding with 16 games to go in some cases 19 that these teams will win every game Yep and its that sort of rationalising going on in the head of players and management that will cost us promotion. We have to set our stall out, and it has to be communicated to the team that failure (losing) is not an option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 Yep and its that sort of rationalising going on in the head of players and management that will cost us promotion. We have to set our stall out, and it has to be communicated to the team that failure (losing) is not an option. For once i agree with you. No competitive team should set out with the mindset that "we can afford to lose this one". People talk about the Arsenal team that went a season unbeaten and they felt unbeatable and that they were going to win every game, no talk about we got lucky because they could afford to slip up here and there and knew this. We should be in the mindset that we cannot afford and will not lose again this season, we might do and probably will but thinking we can afford to is a recipe for faliure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itchen Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 Its obviously misleading to look at defeats alone, what matters are wins. In theory a team could be undefeated, drawing every game to finish with 46 points and be relegated. The 4 consecutive wins after Xmas gave us a boost but since then, D, W, L, W is not good enough. Its always tempting to grasp at straws, such as Lallana has been out, but if this was a championship-winning team it would not be dependant on any one player. I'm not impressed by the two squad players brought in as making any difference. We do have a decent first 11, but I think its down to luck now - whether our best players can stay fit through a hard period. It shouldn't have come to this, though, the squad could have been properly strengthened and it wasn't, it was just propped up. Seriously, you think 6 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss is not impressive? It's exactly the same record as Man Utd's last six games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesfp1 Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 Two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 Its obviously misleading to look at defeats alone, what matters are wins. In theory a team could be undefeated, drawing every game to finish with 46 points and be relegated. The 4 consecutive wins after Xmas gave us a boost but since then, D, W, L, W is not good enough. Its always tempting to grasp at straws, such as Lallana has been out, but if this was a championship-winning team it would not be dependant on any one player. I'm not impressed by the two squad players brought in as making any difference. We do have a decent first 11, but I think its down to luck now - whether our best players can stay fit through a hard period. It shouldn't have come to this, though, the squad could have been properly strengthened and it wasn't, it was just propped up. We can blame the likes of Arsenal and Liverpool for that. Cortese said in the recent Telegraph interview that the Chamberlain speculation scuppered deals that were immune table for other (presumably) higher profile players Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Who? Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 less than the other teams around us, depending on the amount of draws though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 (edited) Yep and its that sort of rationalising going on in the head of players and management that will cost us promotion. We have to set our stall out, and it has to be communicated to the team that failure (losing) is not an option. But the thread wasn't asking: "with what mentality should the team approach each game?" it was simply asking people to do some theoretical number crunching on an Internet forum... Edited 16 February, 2011 by trousers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 Seriously, you think 6 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss is not impressive? It's exactly the same record as Man Utd's last six games. i dont know what else you'd expect from a man who writes off two new players after 160 minutes of football between them (70 of which were a very good away performance) and said because we only won 1-0 and didn't score in 45 minutes against 10 men we weren't good enough for promotion. Same opponents won 0-1 away last night at the team that were 6th at the start of play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted 16 February, 2011 Share Posted 16 February, 2011 I don't think we can afford any more than 3 if we're serious about auto promotion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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