Automatic Promotion Chase

[Toussaint]

24 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said:

We look very different to when we played those sides last. Now playing 4231, a long unbeaten run, lots of squad depth, only one player out injured and playing with a lot of confidence running throughout the squad.

That is true but it is also true that none of those teams will be a pushover. 

[saintant]

Very soft penalty rescues a point for the lucky Tractor Boys. Boooo!

[coalman]

5 minutes ago, saintant said:

Very soft penalty rescues a point for the lucky Tractor Boys. Boooo!

I'm the grand scheme of things it's still a result that's helped us. Now Millwall and Ipswich will be looking at each other. 

12 days ago we weren't even in the playoffs.

[James G]

7 minutes ago, saintant said:

Very soft penalty rescues a point for the lucky Tractor Boys. Boooo!

Ipswich have some tough games and they look vulnerable. The 2-2 results takes points off two contenders, so it's not a bad result

[Willo of Whiteley]

On 16/04/2026 at 17:40, Willo of Whiteley said:

My prediction is:

Millwall 2-1 QPR
Swansea 0-1 Southampton
Ipswich 2-2 Middlesbrough

Southampton 1-0 Bristol City
Stoke 1-2 Millwall
Charlton 1-2 Ipswich
Middlesbrough 1-1 Sheffield United

Leicester 2-1 Millwall
Middlesbrough 1-1 Watford
West Brom 1-1 Ipswich

Southampton 2-1 Ipswich

Ipswich 2-0 QPR
Millwall 2-1 Oxford
Preston 1-2 Southampton
Wrexham 2-0 Middlesbrough

Not sure how that would leave the final table points-wise

Not a bad set of predictions 😂

[sfc4prem]

10 minutes ago, Willo of Whiteley said:

Not a bad set of predictions 😂

Not bloody bad at all!!

[aintforever]

I can see Millwall choking just like Ipswich, beginning to think we’re going to do it now.

[James G]

10 minutes ago, aintforever said:

I can see Millwall choking just like Ipswich, beginning to think we’re going to do it now.

Stoke have beaten Coventry, Wrexham and Hull this season. Swansea too. They often raise their game against good opposition 

[Lord Duckhunter]

Whilst Leicester look dead & buried, Blackburn have played a game more & they face each other last day. If Leicester beat Hull at home Tuesday, Blackburn will need to win at Sheffield Utd to relegate them. Blackburn being within 6 of them could  make Millwalls job a lot tougher as Leicester have the better GD

Edited Sunday at 15:42 by Lord Duckhunter

[SaintTex]

I am inclined to believe the draw was good for us.

1 point each was better than either getting 3. 

neither gained on GD. 

Edited Sunday at 16:05 by SaintTex

[Matthew Le God]

50 minutes ago, SaintTex said:

I am inclined to believe the draw was good for us.

1 point each was better than either getting 3. 

neither gained on GD. 

Ipswich are the bigger threat with more points and a game in hand. So a draw wasn't as good as a Middlesbrough win. But still preferable to an Ipswich win.

[Lymington Saint]

Goal difference is now less relevant given the result today.  We need to win all three games and hope that Ipswich and Millwall do not win all theirs.  The ideal would be both Ipswich and Millwall drop points on Tuesday  

[Dark Munster]

13 minutes ago, Lymington Saint said:

Goal difference is now less relevant given the result today.  We need to win all three games and hope that Ipswich and Millwall do not win all theirs.  The ideal would be both Ipswich and Millwall drop points on Tuesday  

Correct. If we win our last three, Ipswich can't finish on the same number of points as us. If they win their other three they finish above us, and if they don't we finish above them.

[saintant]

1 hour ago, SaintTex said:

I am inclined to believe the draw was good for us.

1 point each was better than either getting 3. 

neither gained on GD. 

Very unlikely now that goal difference will come into play.

[S-Clarke]

I'm happy with a draw, at the end of the day Ipswich have dropped points in their penultimate home game. 3 aways on the spin for them now, if they get 9 points from that lot then fair do's. 

Even 'If' Boro had won, it didn't really change what we needed. At the end of the day we always needed to win all of our games, Ipswich and Millwall need to throw in 1 or 2 duff results. That wouldn't have changed no matter what result today, but dropped points for both is the better result imo.

Keeps Boro a little bit away from us, so we've gained on Boro and Ipswich this weekend. If we do settle for the playoffs, 3rd or 4th will have the 2nd leg at home - so that's another advantage to play for.

[West end Saints]

1 hour ago, Matthew Le God said:

Ipswich are the bigger threat with more points and a game in hand. So a draw wasn't as good as a Middlesbrough win. But still preferable to an Ipswich win.

You won't know that until we see how the other games go. Middlesbrough dropping 2 points may keep us in in top 4 

[saintstowin]

Crikey it's close. The draw today can't be sniffed at.

Ipswich and Millwall 4 points from the last 9 available.

Middlesbrough 3 points.

We know what we've got in that same set of games. 

We're gaining.

We're in with a shout.

[markr27]

Win the last 3 and see where Saints finish. If Ipswich, Millwall and/or Boro (by bettering their goal difference) finish above us, fair play to them. 

[suewhistle]

Lots to be said for winning the autos; not sure I can afford three trips to Wembley.. cough..

[Willo of Whiteley]

I’m confident of a second place finish

[Saint Pete]

1 hour ago, markr27 said:

Win the last 3 and see where Saints finish. If Ipswich, Millwall and/or Boro (by bettering their goal difference) finish above us, fair play to them. 

Well, Boro at least can't catch us if we do win our last 3 now after they dropped 2 points today. It's still against the odds but it's getting more possible with every game at the moment!

My feeling is that I can see Ipswich slipping up in one of their other remaining away games (Charlton, West Brom), which could put us in business for pipping them. If they even just draw one of those and we win our 3, the goal difference thing won't matter. But Millwall worry me looking at their last 3, best chance of a slip up for them may be Stoke on Tuesday, as can't see them dropping points v Leicester or Oxford. 

[bpsaint]

All very ifs, buts and maybes, but Its very gutting thinking that 97th minute winner we conceded at Millwall could be the goal that pips them to the post ahead of us.

Edited Sunday at 23:34 by bpsaint

[ant]

Going by Opta's predicted table, they have Ipswich something in the region of 60/40 in favour of making the autos. 

Us and Millwall more like 80/20 in terms of finishing 3rd to 6th.

Things have been changing fast though. It wasn't long ago that we were only attributed about a 3% chance of catching 2nd.

[Football Special]

7 hours ago, bpsaint said:

All very ifs, buts and maybes, but Its very gutting thinking that 97th minute winner we conceded at Millwall could be the goal that pips them to the post ahead of us.

Got to avoid thinking like that, over a 46 game season every team will be able to point to moments that could have made a difference. Just got to focus on beating Bristol City and see where that leaves us, games come around so quickly its like tournament football, no time for much training in-between games 

[Football Special]

19 minutes ago, ant said:

Going by Opta's predicted table, they have Ipswich something in the region of 60/40 in favour of making the autos. 

Us and Millwall more like 80/20 in terms of finishing 3rd to 6th.

Things have been changing fast though. It wasn't long ago that we were only attributed about a 3% chance of catching 2nd.

Those odds seem fair enough, big week again, Bristol are our bogey team, if we can do it and Super Baz (Stoke) and Nate the Great (Charlton) can do us a favour it will be very exciting going into the final week 

[Farmer Saint]

I can't see Millwall tripping up unfortunately - 2 of their games will be against relegated teams by the time they play them.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Farmer Saint said:

I can't see Millwall tripping up unfortunately - 2 of their games will be against relegated teams by the time they play them.

Possibly not. WBA are due to face a points deduction which might keep it open until the very last game. 

[Tamesaint]

This is going to be the week. We will beat Brizzle and Baz and Mad Nate will come up trumps. 

I can feel it in my water. 

 

[kwsaint]

I’ve heard rumours that Stoke are about to sign Kelvin Davis on a free until the end of the season.

[JustinR]

4 hours ago, Farmer Saint said:

I can't see Millwall tripping up unfortunately - 2 of their games will be against relegated teams by the time they play them.

Oddschecker have us as second favourites to finish top 2- behind Ipswich still. Millwall behind us then boro

[tisspahars]

4 hours ago, Farmer Saint said:

I can't see Millwall tripping up unfortunately - 2 of their games will be against relegated teams by the time they play them.

Not at all saying that they CAN'T win all three but pointing out again for those who think it is virtually certain......the treble for Millwall to win their last 3 games will pay comfortably over 3/1.

[Saint86]

4 hours ago, Farmer Saint said:

I can't see Millwall tripping up unfortunately - 2 of their games will be against relegated teams by the time they play them.

This. The reality is that Millwall would absolutely kick themselves if Ipswich fluffed it and they didn't win 3 from 3.

[Saint Pete]

17 minutes ago, JustinR said:

Oddschecker have us as second favourites to finish top 2- behind Ipswich still. Millwall behind us then boro

This is where bookmakers odds are not always the best guide in my opinion. Objectively, surely Millwall are more likely for top 2 as it stands. They are ahead of us in the table by a point and have a more favourable last 3 games, the highest placed team they have left to play is Stoke in 17th. The odds putting us above Millwall probably driven by optimistic Saints fans lumping bets on us for 2nd place? 

Not saying we can't/won't do it, but objectively it still seems against the odds and we should be considered 3rd favourites as it stands behind Ipswich and Millwall.

[RedArmy]

I had a look back to see if Millwall had won 4 in a row at any point this season as maybe that’s a reason the bookies don’t fancy them, they did it once back in October. 
 

WBA - W 

QPR - W 

Stoke - W 

Leicester - W 

Oxford - Draw 

 

Coincidentally that is the same run of fixtures they have to end the season. 

 

 

 

[HKsaint]

56 minutes ago, RedArmy said:

I had a look back to see if Millwall had won 4 in a row at any point this season as maybe that’s a reason the bookies don’t fancy them, they did it once back in October. 
 

WBA - W 

QPR - W 

Stoke - W 

Leicester - W 

Oxford - Draw 

 

Coincidentally that is the same run of fixtures they have to end the season. 

 

 

 

So, they will lose points to Oxford on the final day

[Lee On Solent Saint]

Shouldn't this thread be renamed Promotion Chase now?

[Saint Garrett]

On 08/04/2026 at 11:57, Saint Garrett said:

It was about 0.5% before last night...!

Only downside is that Ipswich have a game in hand on us, and it's against the skates.

Norwich (A) - D
Pompey (A) - W
Boro (H) - W
Charlton (A) - D
WBA (A) - D
Saints (A) - L
QPR (H) - W
Gives them 12 points = 84 points

We win all 6 - 18 points  - 84 points - we go up 2nd on goal difference...#ITSHAPPENING
 

Well Ipswich have done worse so far than I predicted so far...couple of draws in teh next two would be good...

Think Millwall are a big problem now though as I believe they'll win their remaining games,

[Willo of Whiteley]

Millwall rely on counter attacking football, the teams they have left to play will probably submit to Millwall having more of the ball.

If we win all our games and Millwall win all theirs you have to say fair play to them.

Ipswich have shit the bed, and will continue to do so.

[RedWillie]

Win our 3. The rest is out of our control. UTS