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SaintJackoInHurworth

European Qualification??!

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The expert's for today's match were saying that Saints have every chance of competing for eight place in the EPL, which could mean European qualification. Now that we know that the FA Cup winner will be out of Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal, the likelihood that the top 8 will all play in Europe next year is even further enhanced. So what do you think? Do you think we can finish in eight and do you think that doing so will yield Euro-qualification?

Personally, I think it will definitely be a top 8 go to Europe on the basis that Man City's ban will be upheld and Arsenal will not be the FA Cup winners. While I think we could have a go at finishing 8th, I suspect we will just fall short of that and finish in something like 10th or 11th. It is a nice dream though!

In reality it may actually better if we don't quite qualify for Europe this time out as it would be hard to fit in all those extra fixtures next season - though if we can get close then maybe that will help us in the transfer market so that we can make a decent push to qualify for the following year. :)

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Our run in looks pretty tough on paper. City, United, Everton at their place. I’m hoping for top half finish, ditch the deadwood and go for it next season.

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It's 4 points to catch up on Sheffield Utd and they have a game in hand, plus there are 4 teams between us, also all have a game in hand.

I think realistically, we lose against Man City, we'd have to win the other 4 to stand a chance and maybe draw with Utd, 53 points and you are talking about 5/6 teams not winning 3/6 or something, so it seems unlikely. The only thing in our favour is we play Sheff Utd and Everton who are above us, but when was the last time we won at Everton. 

That would also mean use winning 6 out of last 9 games, which is 2 points a game, we haven't been in 2 points a game form for a long time, nor have we won 3 in a row for a long time and we'd have to win the last 3 games. 

But totally that is what Ralph should be telling the players so we don't go on the beach, plus getting Ingsy the golden boot. 

 

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8 hours ago, SaintJackoInHurworth said:

In reality it may actually better if we don't quite qualify for Europe this time out as it would be hard to fit in all those extra fixtures next season - though if we can get close then maybe that will help us in the transfer market so that we can make a decent push to qualify for the following year. :)

You think it would be better not to qualify so that we have a better chance to qualify the year afterwards? That really makes very little sense.

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Sheff Utd are catchable because they are in horrible form, however it's extremely unlikely we'll overtake all of Arsenal, Everton, Palace and Burnley.

If there's a winner in tonight's game we'll be 5 points behind them, plus anything they gain on us in the next match after we lose to Man City. We also have a worse goal difference than the others. 

We blew any chance with silly defeats to West Ham, Arsenal and Newcastle. 

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Not with our defence.  We will do very well to get 1 point from our next 3 games!

 

 

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10 hours ago, OttawaSaint said:

Our run in looks pretty tough on paper. City, United, Everton at their place. I’m hoping for top half finish, ditch the deadwood and go for it next season.

"At their place" is our new home.

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I would have to renew my BT Sport subscription if we did.

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32 minutes ago, The Cat said:

Sheff Utd are catchable because they are in horrible form, however it's extremely unlikely we'll overtake all of Arsenal, Everton, Palace and Burnley.

If there's a winner in tonight's game we'll be 5 points behind them, plus anything they gain on us in the next match after we lose to Man City. We also have a worse goal difference than the others. 

We blew any chance with silly defeats to West Ham, Arsenal and Newcastle. 

Yes. I think it is pretty clear we aren't the 8th best team in the league. If we make top half that would be a satisfying season considering the start of it, and represents genuine progression from the clown/Hughes era.

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Unless UEFA let us play 2 legged games Away & Away there's really not much point.

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If we get Dragonoak to do another blessing on St Mary's and sort out our home form we might just have a chance.

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The funny thing is that utter shite like us, Palace, Burnley and Sheff U even have a whiff of Europe.

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16 minutes ago, benjii said:

The funny thing is that utter shite like us, Palace, Burnley and Sheff U even have a whiff of Europe.

With our away form this season, if our home form was even half decent we'd be comfortably chasing the European spots.

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Top ten should be the aim. Absolutely everything would have to go right, including other results, for us to get to 8th. 10th would be a great end to the season given where we were in October/November. 

 

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8 hours ago, Matthew Le God said:

You think it would be better not to qualify so that we have a better chance to qualify the year afterwards? That really makes very little sense.

Dear MLG,
Whilst I love you to bits, trotting out this stock reply every time someone dares suggest that playing in Europe next season could be "too soon" is missing the point somewhat. The rationale isn't that we should avoid qualification just so that we can be in a better place to qualify next season, rather, the logic is that because we are still in a rebuilding phase (some of Ralph's tactics are only just starting to bear fruit, some 18 months after he started) we would be better off completing the re-build phase first before competing in Europe. The theory/thinking being that subjecting an as yet incomplete package to the rigours of European football 'too early' *could* set us back rather than push us forward. Ok, you may not agree with that philosophy and can come up with reasons why playing in Europe 'sooner rather than later' could actually help accelerate the re-build phase of Ralph's "project". That's fair enough. You could well be right. Equally, the alternative philosophy could be right. But the debate is more nuanced than lazily throwing the "you don't want to qualify this season so we stand a better chance next season?" card on the table.
Lots of love,
Trousers

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16 minutes ago, LaptopSaint said:

Top ten should be the aim. Absolutely everything would have to go right, including other results, for us to get to 8th. 10th would be a great end to the season given where we were in October/November. 

 

Exactly this.  Bit of critical rebuilding over the summer and a next season to really look forward to despite the plague - it's been a while... 

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, LaptopSaint said:

Top ten should be the aim. Absolutely everything would have to go right, including other results, for us to get to 8th. 10th would be a great end to the season given where we were in October/November. 

 

I (and others) were labelled "mad" by certain forum members for suggesting at the outset of the season that we had a squad capable of finishing in the top half of the table. So, yep, will be very content with 10th :)

Edited by trousers
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6 hours ago, trousers said:

I (and others) were labelled "mad" by certain forum members for suggesting at the outset of the season that we had a squad capable of finishing in the top half of the table. So, yep, will be very content with 10th :)

Not just labeled “mad” but ridiculed over and over again by the forum experts.

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Posted (edited)

Maybe we should finish in the top half before people start congratulating themselves on being right about finishing in the top half.

Edited by CB Fry

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Posted (edited)

can we have a sticky that lists the forum experts? I keep hearing of this gang and would be useful to refer to who they are.

i think I qualify as I have never got anything wrong

Edited by whelk
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16 hours ago, trousers said:

Dear MLG,
Whilst I love you to bits, trotting out this stock reply every time someone dares suggest that playing in Europe next season could be "too soon" is missing the point somewhat. The rationale isn't that we should avoid qualification just so that we can be in a better place to qualify next season, rather, the logic is that because we are still in a rebuilding phase (some of Ralph's tactics are only just starting to bear fruit, some 18 months after he started) we would be better off completing the re-build phase first before competing in Europe. The theory/thinking being that subjecting an as yet incomplete package to the rigours of European football 'too early' *could* set us back rather than push us forward. Ok, you may not agree with that philosophy and can come up with reasons why playing in Europe 'sooner rather than later' could actually help accelerate the re-build phase of Ralph's "project". That's fair enough. You could well be right. Equally, the alternative philosophy could be right. But the debate is more nuanced than lazily throwing the "you don't want to qualify this season so we stand a better chance next season?" card on the table.
Lots of love,
Trousers

I'm in sympathy with much of this.

I don't really want Europe this time. It'll be messy and we may not be able to go to  games anyway. I don't think the squad is deep enough or ready and it would stretch us too far and damage Ralph's building. Most "lesser" teams have struggled to cope with Europa and the league and I suspect Burnley will do so again if they qualify. I want a really good domestic season with no distractions. The only positives might be experience and encouragement for players and manger and a carrot to keep anyone tempted to leave, but realistically Europa won't do that. Champions League 21/22!

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Given how quickly the new season will start, ending this one on good form should bode well for us, but fuck me we need to sort out our home form. Got to beat Brighton and Sheffield United.

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The problem with Europa league it probably would have been starting this week somewhere for ultra qualifying round in Slovakias Premier league or something but we wouldn't exactly get an off season even though the off season is going to be short anyway an Europa league qualifying would make it ridiculous, Latvia on a Thursday followed by whoever on the Sunday. 

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Posted (edited)
On 6/28/2020 at 9:42 PM, SaintJackoInHurworth said:

The expert's for today's match were saying that Saints have every chance of competing for eight place in the EPL, which could mean European qualification. Now that we know that the FA Cup winner will be out of Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal, the likelihood that the top 8 will all play in Europe next year is even further enhanced. So what do you think? Do you think we can finish in eight and do you think that doing so will yield Euro-qualification?

Personally, I think it will definitely be a top 8 go to Europe on the basis that Man City's ban will be upheld and Arsenal will not be the FA Cup winners. While I think we could have a go at finishing 8th, I suspect we will just fall short of that and finish in something like 10th or 11th. It is a nice dream though!

In reality it may actually better if we don't quite qualify for Europe this time out as it would be hard to fit in all those extra fixtures next season - though if we can get close then maybe that will help us in the transfer market so that we can make a decent push to qualify for the following year. :)

Whether we are good enough to compete in Europe is more  important than speculating on achieving eighth place, and will hang on the ability of our fringe players like Smalbobe, Adams and others to do well in the remaining games. It is important imo that the boss gives every opportunity to these talents of the future now. Then let's see.

Edited by eelpie
spelling

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Genuine question - is there definitive evidence that being in European competition damages your domestic performance?

At least for the relatively smaller clubs, maybe ignore the top six who have such deep squads?

Or is it a myth along the lines of "2-0 is the most dangerous lead" or "it's often harder to play against ten men"?

I know there will be anecdotal examples (as there are of 2-0 leads being squandered etc), but is it a stone cold statistical fact that Europa League hurts you?

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24 minutes ago, SaintBobby said:

but is it a stone cold statistical fact that Europa League hurts you?

I think its more the team that has to start in the qualifying rounds that suffers most....allegedly. 

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As Ralph said of Liverpool, you win things through consistency as well as skill.

If we played every game as we did on Sunday then it would be possible with other results going our way.

Sadly, we are not consistent enough to secure 8th place. We are a work in progress still.

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On 6/29/2020 at 6:17 AM, Matthew Le God said:

You think it would be better not to qualify so that we have a better chance to qualify the year afterwards? That really makes very little sense.

 

On 6/29/2020 at 3:10 PM, trousers said:

Dear MLG,
Whilst I love you to bits, trotting out this stock reply every time someone dares suggest that playing in Europe next season could be "too soon" is missing the point somewhat. The rationale isn't that we should avoid qualification just so that we can be in a better place to qualify next season, rather, the logic is that because we are still in a rebuilding phase (some of Ralph's tactics are only just starting to bear fruit, some 18 months after he started) we would be better off completing the re-build phase first before competing in Europe. The theory/thinking being that subjecting an as yet incomplete package to the rigours of European football 'too early' *could* set us back rather than push us forward. Ok, you may not agree with that philosophy and can come up with reasons why playing in Europe 'sooner rather than later' could actually help accelerate the re-build phase of Ralph's "project". That's fair enough. You could well be right. Equally, the alternative philosophy could be right. But the debate is more nuanced than lazily throwing the "you don't want to qualify this season so we stand a better chance next season?" card on the table.
Lots of love,
Trousers

 

12 hours ago, Shroppie said:

I'm in sympathy with much of this.

I don't really want Europe this time. It'll be messy and we may not be able to go to  games anyway. I don't think the squad is deep enough or ready and it would stretch us too far and damage Ralph's building. Most "lesser" teams have struggled to cope with Europa and the league and I suspect Burnley will do so again if they qualify. I want a really good domestic season with no distractions. The only positives might be experience and encouragement for players and manger and a carrot to keep anyone tempted to leave, but realistically Europa won't do that. Champions League 21/22!

Thanks for these responses to MLG's challenge. I think you have pretty much summed it up. My element of concern is not that we shouldn't qualify so we can qualify the following year - it is that I do not feel that we are ready to compete in Europe next season and that it could effect our overall season adversely. Too many teams have seen their performances in the league suffer during a season when they have started out competing in Europe - especially when their squads have not had sufficient strength in depth. I fear that with a limited time between seasons we will find the extra pressure on a limited squad could have a significantly negative effect.

Having said all that, if we do achieve European qualification, I will be delighted, and hope that it will enable us to sign some quality signings which may counterbalance the above mentioned negative aspects. :)

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