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The Minsk Memorial Thread (and continuation of his work)


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Some of you probably remember the threads I used to do (for a few years, post Koeman) in comparing how we fared comparatively to the previous season. I stopped because (1) I got too busy to keep on top of it and (2) each season was getting more and more depressing than the previous one!¬†ūü§£¬†The way it works is that I compare our points tally (and will add goal difference this time) on a week by week and a head-to-head/match by match basis. If I get everything correct along the way, they should be the same at the season's end (as each other, not as last season). None of us are fallible (even though there are some on here to claim to always be right) so please point out when I make a mistake. I don't pay my fiver, so won't be able to correct it,¬†but I will use one of my 3 daily posts to thank you and try again.

Of course we have had relegations and promotions so, for the head-to-head comparison, I will be swapping the teams as follows: Fulham - Norwich; West Brom - Watford; Sheffield Utd - Brentford. I think most of you probably know where we stand compared to last season at the moment, but I will still go through the stats for the first 3 matches:

Match Day Comparison

Match Day 1 - Last season lost 1-0 away to Crystal Palace - this season lost 3-1 away to Everton

Match Day 2 - Last season lost 2-5 at home to Spurs - this season drew 1-1 at home to Man Utd

Match Day 3 - Last season won 0-1 away to Burnley - this season drew 2-2 away to Newcastle

(Interestingly, in the midst of that, last season we lost an EFL cup match 0-2 at home to Brentford - whereas this season we won 0-8 away at Newport)

Therefore, after Match Day 3 last season we had 3 points and -3 GD; whereas this season we have 2 points and -2 GD.

-1 point ; +1 GD

Head-to-Head Comparison

Everton Away - last season we lost 1-0; this season we lost 3-1

Man Utd Home - last season we lost 2-3; this season we drew 1-1

Newcastle Away - last season we lost 3-2; this season we drew 2-2

This puts us at: +2 points ; +1 GD

Worse off on a match day basis - which I expect to be a theme, increasingly so until the end of the year, before we (hopefully) turn it around some time in early April; better off in the head-to-head comparison - which I hope we can keep up all season.

Next up, on Match Day 4, is West Ham at home. Last season we drew 0-0 with the Irons at St. Mary's, whereas match day 4 saw us winning 2-0 at St. Mary's against West Brom.

At this moment in time, I would be happy with either 0-0 or 2-0 as the result this coming weekend - but obviously hoping for the latter (or any similar result). Is a 1-0 or 2-1 win too much to hope for?

COYS

 

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53 minutes ago, Minsk said:

Some of you probably remember the threads I used to do (for a few years, post Koeman) in comparing how we fared comparatively to the previous season. I stopped because (1) I got too busy to keep on top of it and (2) each season was getting more and more depressing than the previous one!¬†ūü§£¬†The way it works is that I compare our points tally (and will add goal difference this time) on a week by week and a head-to-head/match by match basis. If I get everything correct along the way, they should be the same at the season's end (as each other, not as last season). None of us are fallible (even though there are some on here to claim to always be right) so please point out when I make a mistake. I don't pay my fiver, so won't be able to correct it,¬†but I will use one of my 3 daily posts to thank you and try again.

Of course we have had relegations and promotions so, for the head-to-head comparison, I will be swapping the teams as follows: Fulham - Norwich; West Brom - Watford; Sheffield Utd - Brentford. I think most of you probably know where we stand compared to last season at the moment, but I will still go through the stats for the first 3 matches:

Match Day Comparison

Match Day 1 - Last season lost 1-0 away to Crystal Palace - this season lost 3-1 away to Everton

Match Day 2 - Last season lost 2-5 at home to Spurs - this season drew 1-1 at home to Man Utd

Match Day 3 - Last season won 0-1 away to Burnley - this season drew 2-2 away to Newcastle

(Interestingly, in the midst of that, last season we lost an EFL cup match 0-2 at home to Brentford - whereas this season we won 0-8 away at Newport)

Therefore, after Match Day 3 last season we had 3 points and -3 GD; whereas this season we have 2 points and -2 GD.

-1 point ; +1 GD

Head-to-Head Comparison

Everton Away - last season we lost 1-0; this season we lost 3-1

Man Utd Home - last season we lost 2-3; this season we drew 1-1

Newcastle Away - last season we lost 3-2; this season we drew 2-2

This puts us at: +2 points ; +1 GD

Worse off on a match day basis - which I expect to be a theme, increasingly so until the end of the year, before we (hopefully) turn it around some time in early April; better off in the head-to-head comparison - which I hope we can keep up all season.

Next up, on Match Day 4, is West Ham at home. Last season we drew 0-0 with the Irons at St. Mary's, whereas match day 4 saw us winning 2-0 at St. Mary's against West Brom.

At this moment in time, I would be happy with either 0-0 or 2-0 as the result this coming weekend - but obviously hoping for the latter (or any similar result). Is a 1-0 or 2-1 win too much to hope for?

COYS

 

Really interesting and valuable! The other 14 twitter does a baseline tracker which I always keep an eye out for but this is much more in depth and thorough! Thanks for the effort.

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1 hour ago, Minsk said:

Some of you probably remember the threads I used to do (for a few years, post Koeman) in comparing how we fared comparatively to the previous season. I stopped because (1) I got too busy to keep on top of it and (2) each season was getting more and more depressing than the previous one!¬†ūü§£¬†The way it works is that I compare our points tally (and will add goal difference this time) on a week by week and a head-to-head/match by match basis. If I get everything correct along the way, they should be the same at the season's end (as each other, not as last season). None of us are fallible (even though there are some on here to claim to always be right) so please point out when I make a mistake. I don't pay my fiver, so won't be able to correct it,¬†but I will use one of my 3 daily posts to thank you and try again.

Of course we have had relegations and promotions so, for the head-to-head comparison, I will be swapping the teams as follows: Fulham - Norwich; West Brom - Watford; Sheffield Utd - Brentford. I think most of you probably know where we stand compared to last season at the moment, but I will still go through the stats for the first 3 matches:

Match Day Comparison

Match Day 1 - Last season lost 1-0 away to Crystal Palace - this season lost 3-1 away to Everton

Match Day 2 - Last season lost 2-5 at home to Spurs - this season drew 1-1 at home to Man Utd

Match Day 3 - Last season won 0-1 away to Burnley - this season drew 2-2 away to Newcastle

(Interestingly, in the midst of that, last season we lost an EFL cup match 0-2 at home to Brentford - whereas this season we won 0-8 away at Newport)

Therefore, after Match Day 3 last season we had 3 points and -3 GD; whereas this season we have 2 points and -2 GD.

-1 point ; +1 GD

Head-to-Head Comparison

Everton Away - last season we lost 1-0; this season we lost 3-1

Man Utd Home - last season we lost 2-3; this season we drew 1-1

Newcastle Away - last season we lost 3-2; this season we drew 2-2

This puts us at: +2 points ; +1 GD

Worse off on a match day basis - which I expect to be a theme, increasingly so until the end of the year, before we (hopefully) turn it around some time in early April; better off in the head-to-head comparison - which I hope we can keep up all season.

Next up, on Match Day 4, is West Ham at home. Last season we drew 0-0 with the Irons at St. Mary's, whereas match day 4 saw us winning 2-0 at St. Mary's against West Brom.

At this moment in time, I would be happy with either 0-0 or 2-0 as the result this coming weekend - but obviously hoping for the latter (or any similar result). Is a 1-0 or 2-1 win too much to hope for?

COYS

 

Thank you Minsk!

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Match day comparisons are of little value, even as a measure of match preparedness and fitness it doesn't convince as so much depends on the vagaries of the fixture list.

Relative performance in specific matches doesn't tell the whole story either, we might have dominated a game last year and lost 0-1 whilst this year scrapping a late lucky draw having been outplayed all afternoon.

The signs of progress we should look for are goals scored and goals conceded, it's that simple really, 4-7 last year, 4-6 this. To me that suggest we are still at or about where we were last year. Little has changed but we've played only 3 game so far.

 

Edited by Charlie Wayman
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30 minutes ago, Charlie Wayman said:

Match day comparisons are of little value, even as a measure of match preparedness and fitness it doesn't convince as so much depends on the vagaries of the fixture list.

Relative performance in specific matches doesn't tell the whole story either, we might have dominated a game last year and lost 0-1 whilst this year scrapping a late lucky draw having been outplayed all afternoon.

The signs of progress we should look for are goals scored and goals conceded, it's that simple really, 4-7 last year, 4-6 this. To me that suggest we are still at or about where we were last year. Little has changed but we've played only 3 game so far.

 

Surely the "goals scored and goals conceded" metric also falls victim to the natural variance you describe in the second sentence? If we dominate all game and lose 1-0 then that also doesn't show when evaluating goals scored and conceded?

I think both metrics are valuable to be honest. The match day comparisons show the development of form and winning runs as well as the settling of new players/formations. The specific matches is probably the best way to mark our development available in that we are ostensibly playing mostly the same teams. It has variance as you describe, no doubt, but as the league rumbles on hopefully that will average out. Neither of these methods of measuring success are perfect, obviously, but it is impossible to 100% compare two different seasons, this is close enough to be a very useful tool imo.

If you wanted a lower variance model you could use xG comparisons between last seasons game and this in order to remove the effect of a goalkeeper/striker having a worldy/howler when everyone else around them is doing fine. Using xG sends some around here into cold sweats though so maybe best avoided for now!

Edited by TWar
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7 hours ago, Charlie Wayman said:

Match day comparisons are of little value, even as a measure of match preparedness and fitness it doesn't convince as so much depends on the vagaries of the fixture list.

Relative performance in specific matches doesn't tell the whole story either, we might have dominated a game last year and lost 0-1 whilst this year scrapping a late lucky draw having been outplayed all afternoon.

The signs of progress we should look for are goals scored and goals conceded, it's that simple really, 4-7 last year, 4-6 this. To me that suggest we are still at or about where we were last year. Little has changed but we've played only 3 game so far.

 

You do realise that you have completely contradicted yourself? If match day comparisons are of 'little value' due to 'vagaries of the fixture list', then how does does looking at the goals scored/conceded in those matches mean anything either? Last season those 3 matches were against Palace (a), Spurs (h) and Burnley (a) - this season against Everton (a), Man Utd (h) and Newcastle (a). I would say the latter 3 being more difficult games than the former. Yet we have scored the same and conceded fewer. Also, as Twar has already pointed out, in your 'observation' that 'little has changed' there is also no accounting for opposition, chances created by either team, etc.

Going purely on a league basis thus far, yes after only 3 games, we have a better GD whether comparing match days or head-to-head. Now let's add in the respective cup matches: this season scored 12 conceded 6; last season scored 4 conceded 9. Therefore, a far better return this time. No?

In any event, no one is forcing you to read this thread....................

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10 minutes ago, Minsk said:

You do realise that you have completely contradicted yourself? If match day comparisons are of 'little value' due to 'vagaries of the fixture list', then how does does looking at the goals scored/conceded in those matches mean anything either? Last season those 3 matches were against Palace (a), Spurs (h) and Burnley (a) - this season against Everton (a), Man Utd (h) and Newcastle (a). I would say the latter 3 being more difficult games than the former. Yet we have scored the same and conceded fewer. Also, as Twar has already pointed out, in your 'observation' that 'little has changed' there is also no accounting for opposition, chances created by either team, etc.

Going purely on a league basis thus far, yes after only 3 games, we have a better GD whether comparing match days or head-to-head. Now let's add in the respective cup matches: this season scored 12 conceded 6; last season scored 4 conceded 9. Therefore, a far better return this time. No?

In any event, no one is forcing you to read this thread....................

Could be worse i suppose ...............just ask Arsenal fans.............lol

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9 hours ago, Turkish said:

What point are you trying to make? How does last seasons result have any bearing on what will happen in this seasons games?

Not trying to make any point. I never said last season's results would have any bearing on this season's games. I know it was appreciated by many when I did this previously and it appears that it is this time around too (given the number of likes to my OP and subsequent comments). If it isn't of any interest to you just ignore the thread, instead of trying to take it off track like you do with most others. As an aside, nice to see you starting to agree with MLG's way of thinking.

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I'm not sure if Turkish works hard to be the poster he is or maybe it just comes naturally. Best if you don't quote him though..ūüėČ

As with all stats they can be interpreted in different ways, but this is interesting and if nothing else is a useful pub conversation topic! Thanks..

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Match Day 4

Match Day comparison:

Last season match day 4 saw us win 2-0 at home to WBA - this season was a 0-0 draw at home against WHU.

2 points and 2 GD fewer than the same match day yielded last year.

-3 points; -1 GD

Head to Head Comparison:

Exactly the same scoreline this season as last - 0-0. This means we remain at:

+2 points; +1 GD

As expected, we are starting to fall away from last season's match day numbers (hardly surprising considering we gained most of our points before New Year) but are keeping our noses in front (at least for now) in the head to head comparison.

Next up, on Match Day 5, is a matter of a little trip away to the Champions - Man City. In the same fixture last season we were beaten 5-2; whilst on match day 5 we managed a respectable 3-3 draw away to Chelsea. (Interesting side note: Che Adams scored in both of those matches - in the 56th and 57th minutes respectively.) 

Would be great to see Che score again on Saturday (he does seem to like scoring against City) , and for us to match the 2 or 3 goals of last season. It would be even better if we don't concede more than we score (to state the bloody obvious). That said, I guess anything better than a 3 goal loss will see us improve in the head-to-head comparison.

Fantasising for a win; dreaming of a draw; expecting a loss.

COYS

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  • 2 weeks later...

Match Day 5

Match Day Comparison:

Last season saw us grab a last minute equaliser to get a very respectable 3-3 draw away at title contenders (and eventual European Champions) Chelsea. This season saw a fabulous time added on save from McCarthy to earn a 0-0 draw (which should have been a 1-0 win, but less said about that penalty decision the better) away at Champions Man City. When  you consider City's other 4 home matches this season - scored 5, 5, 6 and 6 - shutting them out completely was an amazing achievement.

Same points and GD this season as last (didn't think I would be typing that on here this time last week)

-3 points; -1 GD

Head-to-Head Comparison:

Last season we lost 5-2 at The Etihad, so the 0-0 is a great improvement of +1 point and +3 GD.

+3 points; +4 GD

Next up, on Match Day 6, is Wolves at home. Last season match Day 6 saw us beat Everton 2-0 at St. Mary's; however, our home match against Wolves saw us lose 1-2 (after being 1 up at half-time).

Would love to see us win this by any margin, we certainly need to get our first win under our belt. A 2-0 repeat of last season's Match Day 6 would be ideal, but I'm hoping for at least 3-0 with goals from Che, Arma and JWP. (A man is allowed to dream once in a while.)

COYS

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  • 2 weeks later...

Sorry for the late update. Been a bit busy this week. Anyway:

Match Day 6

Match Day Comparison:

Last season we beat Everton 2-0 at home in our 6th league outing. So Sundays disappointing 1-0 defeat sees us 3 points and 3 GD down.

-6 Points; -4 GD

Head-to-Head Comparison:

Last season (just as the one before that) saw us lose at home to Wolves by a single goal (at least we weren't winning at HT this time around) so no change in either points or GD.

+3 Points; +4GD

Next up, on Match Day 7, is a short trip up to London to face the European Champions - Chelsea. As has already been mentioned above, that was our Match Day 5 last season and we managed a very creditable 3-3 draw. Match Day 7 saw a 7 goal thriller and a 4-3 win away at Villa (after being 4-0 up!) 

Seeing as Chelsea have only conceded 3 goals, in all competitions, so far this season I really can't see us scoring 3 tomorrow. At this moment in time I would very happily take a 0-0, but have a feeling Ralph is going to lose his unbeaten against Chelsea tag. Still, I will be watching and cheering the team on as ever, and with the hope that we will take something from the match.

COYS

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3 hours ago, Ex Lion Tamer said:

So we're still 3 points up in the head to head comparison. Something to be hopeful about

Yep I think that is why it’s important to wait until Xmas before really understanding where we are at.  Most people don’t have that much patience but after tomorrow we will have played four of last season’s top six already.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Now that the internationals are out of the way, let's get back to Saints.

Match Day 7

Match Day Comparison:

Last season's match day 7 was the 4-3 win away to Villa. This season was a 3-1 loss away to Chelsea. -3 points and -3 GD.

-9 Points; -7 GD

Head-to-Head Comparison:

Last season we scored a last minute equaliser to earn a 3-3 draw away to Chelsea. This season we were doing well at 1-1 until JWP's red card gave them the impetus to grab 2 late goals themselves. -1 point and -2 GD.

+2 Points; +2 GD

Next up, on Match Day 8, is a home fixture against Leeds. Last season that was our final home match, in which we were beaten 2-0. Last season's match day 8 gave us a 2-0 home win over Newcastle. We could really do with a 2-0 win this Saturday too!!

COYS

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Match Day 8

Match Day Comparison:

Last season's match day 8 gave us a 2-0 victory at home to Newcastle. Should have been at least that this time at home to Leeds, but still happy with the 1-0. Equal points; -1 GD

-9 points; -8 GD

Head-to Head Comparison

Last season we lost this fixture 2-0. So the 1-0 win gives a nice positive swing. +3 points ; +3 GD

+5 points; +5 GD 

Next up, on Match Day 9, is a home game against Burnley. Last season we won the corresponding fixture 3-2, giving us the double over The Clarets (we won 1-0 up there on match day 3). Last season's Match Day 9 gave a us a 1-1 draw away at Wolves. 

Whilst no game is easy in the Premier League, I see no reason why we can't get a win in this one. I'm predicting 2-0 to Saints on Saturday.

COYS

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Match Day 9

Match Day Comparison:

Last season we drew match day 9 1-1 away at Wolves. Last Saturday's draw gives no change in points or GD.

-9 Points; -8 GD

Head-to-Head Comparison:

Last season we beat Burnley 3-2 at St Mary's. Unfortunately this time around we couldn't manage to find that winning 3rd goal. The 2-2 draw means we drop to:

+3 Points; +4 GD

Next up, on Match Day 10, is our first encounter of the season with one of the newly promoted sides - Watford. As they came up in 2nd place, for the purposes of the head-to-head comparison I will compare results with last season's ones against WBA (the team who finished 19th). Our trip to The Hawthorns was pretty dire, ending in a 3-0 defeat. Match Day 10 wasn't much better. That one saw us leading 2-0 at home against Man Utd, before halftime, only to eventually lose the game 3-2 (with Cavani scoring the winner, and his 2nd, in the 90th minute).

Really need to avoid a defeat in this one. Could also do with avoiding another draw and notching up a win here. Ever the optimist, I'm going to go for a 3-1 win.

COYS 

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19 hours ago, TWar said:

zda4chuz9mw71.png?width=918&auto=webp&s=5568a904e41f325d04938e415b706c183689c818

Some bright spark on the subreddit has drawn up a comparison between how we have done with these last 10 fixtures in our last five seasons. Looks like we are doing well!

Can't say I particularly agree with their assumption that the N/A games should count as a 0-0 draw. The fact that the team was previously in the Championship suggests that the equivalent team we'd have faced those seasons would have been one of the newly promoted teams where we may have been more likely to pick up all 3 points rather than just one. Working under that assumption that the N/A's could be 3pts each would put us about level on points with previous seasons with the exception of last year.

While performances have improved (especially defensively), we are sitting in 14th after a quarter of the season averaging 1.1pts a game which if we continued on that form would have us finishing on 42pts. We finished last season in 15th on 43pts for comparison.

Things are looking more promising but there's still a lot of work to be done. 1-0 wins against Leeds and Watford while welcome aren't enough evidence for me to think we've fully turned things around or have made significant progress. Hopefully we can get results against Villa and Norwich and put some distance between us and the bottom teams and continue to push on from there.

Like I said promising signs but let's not jump the gun too early.

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2 minutes ago, Diabolus Ex Machina said:

Can't say I particularly agree with their assumption that the N/A games should count as a 0-0 draw. The fact that the team was previously in the Championship suggests that the equivalent team we'd have faced those seasons would have been one of the newly promoted teams where we may have been more likely to pick up all 3 points rather than just one. Working under that assumption that the N/A's could be 3pts each would put us about level on points with previous seasons with the exception of last year.

While performances have improved (especially defensively), we are sitting in 14th after a quarter of the season averaging 1.1pts a game which if we continued on that form would have us finishing on 42pts. We finished last season in 15th on 43pts for comparison.

Things are looking more promising but there's still a lot of work to be done. 1-0 wins against Leeds and Watford while welcome aren't enough evidence for me to think we've fully turned things around or have made significant progress. Hopefully we can get results against Villa and Norwich and put some distance between us and the bottom teams and continue to push on from there.

Like I said promising signs but let's not jump the gun too early.

Agreed, definitely not the methodology I would have used.

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Match Day 10

Match Day Comparison:

Last season we lost our 10th league game 2-3 at home to Man Utd (after leading 2-0). Therefore, Saturday's 1-0 win at Watford gives us a positive 3 point and 2GD swing.

-6 points; -6 GD

Head-to-Head Comparison:

As previously explained, for this comparison, I am comparing our results against Watford (the team promoted in 2nd place) to those of WBA's (the team relegated 2nd from bottom) last season. Last season we lost 3-0 away to WBA. Saturday's 1-0 win gives us +3 points and +4 GD.

+6 points; +8 GD

Next up, on Friday and match day 11, is a home match against Villa. Last season we lost at home to Villa 0-1; whilst match day 11 saw us gain a 2-1 win along the coast at Brighton. The only player who scored in either of those wins who could get on the scoresheet Friday is Danny Ings (pen). I hope he is still out injured! (Vestergaard and Ross Barkley were the other goal scorers.) Obviously, a win or draw keeps Villa below us. If nothing else this season, I really want us to stay above them at all times. Going for a 2-1 win.

COYS

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Last seasons defeat was a disgrace. Some of the decisions that went against us that day were disgraceful. I still cannot get my head round Cash's handball, that the officials doubled down on after the game. Again, disgrace.

I really hope we get to set the record straight on Friday. Lets not miss the first four sitters while dominating the 1st halt, lets actually put them to the sword!

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4 minutes ago, LiberalCommunist said:

Last seasons defeat was a disgrace. Some of the decisions that went against us that day were disgraceful. I still cannot get my head round Cash's handball, that the officials doubled down on after the game. Again, disgrace.

I really hope we get to set the record straight on Friday. Lets not miss the first four sitters while dominating the 1st halt, lets actually put them to the sword!

Fully agree!

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7 minutes ago, LiberalCommunist said:

Last seasons defeat was a disgrace. Some of the decisions that went against us that day were disgraceful. I still cannot get my head round Cash's handball, that the officials doubled down on after the game. Again, disgrace.

I really hope we get to set the record straight on Friday. Lets not miss the first four sitters while dominating the 1st halt, lets actually put them to the sword!

I’d almost forgotten about that game.  It’s rare I get angry at football anymore, but that game was definitely one of those occasions!

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2 minutes ago, Barsiem said:

I’d almost forgotten about that game.  It’s rare I get angry at football anymore, but that game was definitely one of those occasions!

I was seething about that for days. Even a Villa fan I work with was sympathetic and agreed how bad it was.

IIRC, as well as the Cash handball, Ings had a goal disallowed because his fingernail was offside, and JWP was booked after catching a throw-in from Targett because it was blatantly our throw and the lino hadn't yet flagged, but he subsequently bottled it and flagged it for Villa. 

Was it Mason as ref and Dean on VAR, or was it the other way round?

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The Cash handball, whilst being gutting, I dont think was a penalty if i recall it correctly.

The rules at the time were if a shot deflects from another part of the player then hit the arm/hand, it wasnt a penalty. I’m pretty sure it slightly flicked up of the thigh of Cash prior to hitting his arm.

I’m not saying I agree with that btw, just thought them’s the rules when that happened.

The Ings goal should have stood imo.

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3 minutes ago, Billy the Kidd said:

The Cash handball, whilst being gutting, I dont think was a penalty if i recall it correctly.

The rules at the time were if a shot deflects from another part of the player then hit the arm/hand, it wasnt a penalty. I’m pretty sure it slightly flicked up of the thigh of Cash prior to hitting his arm.

I’m not saying I agree with that btw, just thought them’s the rules when that happened.

The Ings goal should have stood imo.

That's the excuse they used to not give it, but that rule was only ever meant to apply to situations where a deflection off another body part caused a drastic change in the ball's trajectory and the player couldn't possibly move his hand/arm out of the way.

In the instance, Cash had his hand out in an unnatural position and the ball very slightly grazed his thigh before hitting it. Had it not grazed his thigh, it still would have hit his hand, preventing a certain goal. It absolutely should have been a penalty.

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37 minutes ago, Sheaf Saint said:

That's the excuse they used to not give it, but that rule was only ever meant to apply to situations where a deflection off another body part caused a drastic change in the ball's trajectory and the player couldn't possibly move his hand/arm out of the way.

In the instance, Cash had his hand out in an unnatural position and the ball very slightly grazed his thigh before hitting it. Had it not grazed his thigh, it still would have hit his hand, preventing a certain goal. It absolutely should have been a penalty.

Like I say, i thought it should be, but just thought the rules were a bit bent.

Anyhow, Fri I think we will take them apart, they could be just the right game for us next.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Ralph's given his presser ahead of Saturday's match so it's time to do an update here.

Match Day 11

Match Day Comparison:

Last season we won match day 11, 2-1 away to Brighton. So this year's 1-0 win over Villa means no change in either points or GD. 

-6 points; -6 GD

Head-to Head Comparison:

Last season we lost 1-0 at home to Villa; meaning that this season's victory by the same score gives us an extra 3 points and an additional +2 on GD.

+9 points; +10 GD

Next up on Saturday, match day 12, is our away trip to Norwich. As they came up as champions, I will be comparing our results against them with those against Fulham (the team to be relegated in 18th position) from last season. Ironically, heading away to the team sat firmly at the foot of the table, last season we played the team who finished rock bottom on match day 12. It saw us gain a 3-0 win at home against Sheffield Utd. Our match away at Fulham was played on Boxing Day and ended in a 0-0 draw.

With 2 wins and 2 clean sheets on the bounce we should all be feeling pretty good going into this match. Yes Norwich picked up their first win of the season last time out and have a new manager in place. However, Ralph got Saints to beat that manager's Villa last time out and, even with their injuries/suspensions, that Villa team was comprised of better players than those in the Norwich squad. Maybe Smith learned something from last match? But has he had enough time with his new players to implement anything meaningful? I guess we will find out soon enough. Given we have an almost fully fit squad, and the form many of our players are coming into, I am going for a positive 3-1 victory. That said, I would be more than happy with our favourite 1-0 win (if my nerves could take another one).

COYS

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16 hours ago, S-Clarke said:

Appreciate your posts Minsk.

The head to head comparison improvement is good to see really, given the teams we've faced so far. That shows we're on the right course I think.

 

16 hours ago, Saint_clark said:

Thanks Minsk, really interesting stuff. 

Being so much better on head to head is encouraging.

Cheers guys. Yeah, the head-to-head is very encouraging. Given we won most of our points in the first half of last season it's no wonder we are lagging behind in the match day stats. Hopefully we will soon catch up and overtake there as well. (Spoiler alert - we only won one league match from mid December to the beginning of March last season).

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On 18/11/2021 at 13:51, Minsk said:

Ralph's given his presser ahead of Saturday's match so it's time to do an update here.

Match Day 11

Match Day Comparison:

Last season we won match day 11, 2-1 away to Brighton. So this year's 1-0 win over Villa means no change in either points or GD. 

-6 points; -6 GD

Head-to Head Comparison:

Last season we lost 1-0 at home to Villa; meaning that this season's victory by the same score gives us an extra 3 points and an additional +2 on GD.

+9 points; +10 GD

Next up on Saturday, match day 12, is our away trip to Norwich. As they came up as champions, I will be comparing our results against them with those against Fulham (the team to be relegated in 18th position) from last season. Ironically, heading away to the team sat firmly at the foot of the table, last season we played the team who finished rock bottom on match day 12. It saw us gain a 3-0 win at home against Sheffield Utd. Our match away at Fulham was played on Boxing Day and ended in a 0-0 draw.

With 2 wins and 2 clean sheets on the bounce we should all be feeling pretty good going into this match. Yes Norwich picked up their first win of the season last time out and have a new manager in place. However, Ralph got Saints to beat that manager's Villa last time out and, even with their injuries/suspensions, that Villa team was comprised of better players than those in the Norwich squad. Maybe Smith learned something from last match? But has he had enough time with his new players to implement anything meaningful? I guess we will find out soon enough. Given we have an almost fully fit squad, and the form many of our players are coming into, I am going for a positive 3-1 victory. That said, I would be more than happy with our favourite 1-0 win (if my nerves could take another one).

COYS

Another game where we had a goal ruled out by a very marginal offside decision IIRC.

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12 hours ago, LiberalCommunist said:

Didn't we get a very dubious decision against Brighton last time around. It doesn't negate the other decisions, but it is worth remembering. 

Yeah we got a late penalty when VAR ruled that although the initial foul On KWP was outside the box, there was a secondary contact inside so they awarded a penalty that gave us a win we didn't really deserve cos we didn't play well that night.

I'd have been fuming if I was a Brighton fan, but then we were on the other end of some truly shitty decisions last season so it's swings and roundabouts really.

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Match Day 12

Match Day Comparison:

Last season we won match day 12 (3-0) at home against Sheffield Utd. Saturday's 2-1 loss at Norwich sees us drop points and GD.

-9 points; -10 GD

Head-to-Head Comparison:

As previously mentioned, I will be substituting Norwich for Fulham here. Last season we drew 0-0 away to Fulham. Again, points and GD dropped.

+7 points; +9 GD

Next up, tomorrow on Match Day 13 (yes, 13), is an easy little trip up to Anfield (he says tongue firmly in cheek). Last season we lost 2-0 away to Liverpool, while match day 13 saw us earn a 1-1 draw away to Arsenal.

I think most sane Saints fans won't be expecting us to get anything from this match. Mind you, those same fans were probably banking on us winning last week. It's a funny old game football, which can throw up some strange results. Praying we get one of those tomorrow, but really not expecting it given the week I've been having..... Hey ho. Come on Saints. At least make me proud!

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Match Day 13

Match Day Comparison:

Last season saw us get a 1-1 draw away at Arsenal in match day 13, so Saturday's 4-0 loss to Liverpool is more points and GD dropped.

-10 points; -14 GD

Head-to-Head Comparison:

Last season we also lost at Anfield, but by half the number of goals.

+7 points; +7 GD

Next up, tomorrow evening on Match Day 14, is the home fixture against Leicester. Last season we drew 1-1 at home to The Foxes (having played with 10 men from the 10th minute following Vestergaard's red card) whilst Match Day 14 saw Man City beat us 0-1 at St. Mary's.

Leicester have been a bit off their usual performances so far this season, but seem to have turned a bit of a corner recently. They also have some very good, and very dangerous, players (dangerous in more ways than one, Mr Vardy - I still swear to this day that he intentionally stamped on VVD's foot). That said, they are missing Tielemans and we should be able to match them all over the park. Unfortunately, I doubt that either Vestergaard or Bertrand will be starting for them tomorrow. But, anyway, one can only hope that we get something out of this match - even if it is a repeat of last season's 1-1 score line (although hoping for a 2-1 win, or better).

And don't forget, this match is being shown live on Amazon Prime with a 7.30 kick-off.

COYS

 

 

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Match Day 14

Match Day Comparison:

Last season we lost match day 14, by a goal to nil, against Man City at St Mary's. Last night's draw sees a gain in points and GD.

-9 points; -13 GD

Head-to-Head Comparison:

Last season we drew 1-1 at home to Leicester so yesterday's 2-2 makes no difference here.

+7 points; +7 GD

Next up, on Match Day 15, is Saturday's home game against Brighton. Last season saw a 0-0 draw away to Fulham on match day 15. Whilst our home match against The Seagulls ended in a 1-2 defeat. Without wanting to state the obvious, a win on Saturday would see gains in both comparisons.

Looking at the table it is easy to see that Brighton are having a decent season so far. Currently sat in 7th place, they have only been beaten 3 times in their 14 matches (by Everton, Man City and Villa). The latter 2 of those being in their current 9 match winless run. That means they have drawn 7 of their last 9; one more draw than we have all season. If I were a gambling man, which I'm not, I would say that the safe bet would be another draw in Saturday. That said, even though they are sat 7th and we are 16th, they are only 4 points ahead of us. There are 2 matches we have lost this season that I think we should have easily won had we put away a couple of our numerous chances - Wolves and Norwich. Had we done so we would now be 6th. That's how tight this season is. It would be great to get a few more wins under our belts. I'm going to predict we get one on Saturday. 2-1 to Saints.

COYS

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Match Day 15

Match Day Comparison

Last season we drew 0-0 away to Fulham on match day 15 so Saturday's draw sees no change in either points or GD.

-9 points; -13 GD

Head-to-Head Comparison

Last season Brighton beat us 2-1 at St. Mary's. Therefore (as painful as it was) Saturday's 1-1 draw gains us a point and +1 GD.

+8 points; +8 GD

Next up, on Match Day 16, is an away trip to Arsenal. Last season we drew 1-1 at The Emirates. We also drew match day 16, 0-0, at home to West Ham. If offered right now I would absolutely take a draw this Saturday. I think that would be a good result given our injuries and suspensions. If we do lose (as most are expecting us to) at least we will only have to wait a few days until the match, where we will have at least a couple well rested players to come back into the fold. Head says 3-0 loss; heart says 1-1 draw.

COYS

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