Rut Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 hours ago, SaintJackoInHurworth said: Saints beat Hull, Leicester no fixture -> Saints 70pts, Leicester 78pts Leicester draw away to Leeds, Saints beat Millwall -> Saints 73pts, Leicester 79pts I like these optimistic threads but... Not wanting to piss on your bonfire but a lot of bookies have these games priced up already. A Saints/Draw/Saints treble pays about 8/1. That's a long enough shot - let alone the umpteen games after that... Can't wait for when the BBC puts up their 'who's gonna win the league/get relegated' predictor page. You know - the thing where people spend 10 mins filling out the scores of 100-odd games and then solemnly declare that xxx team will stay up by 1 point. Interestingly the bookies have Leeds as favs to beat Leicester. I think there's def some value in the Leicester price. I'd have it as more of a coin-flip game. Especially after Leicester bottled it today. Can't see them losing 2 in a row after the season they've had so far. We shall see... https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/leeds-v-leicester/winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 It’s only been one game since we got comfortably turned over by a mid table side, please stop this nonsense 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexLaw76 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Not a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjii Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Would be funny if we finished first and Ipswich second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 7 hours ago, SaintJackoInHurworth said: With Saints beating West Brom yesterday and Leicester coming unstuck against Middlesbrough, it begins to beg the question, can Saints catch Leicester? If so when could that happen. I think it is possible, but I am under no illusion that it will be easy! I don't think we can do it before we play them though. However, if we can draw against them when we play them, it might be possible to catch them in the following game against Middlesbrough, as illustrated below: Currently: Saints 67pts, Leicester 78pts Saints beat Hull, Leicester no fixture -> Saints 70pts, Leicester 78pts Leicester draw away to Leeds, Saints beat Millwall -> Saints 73pts, Leicester 79pts Saints beat Brum away, Leicester beat QPR -> Saints 76pts, Leicester 82pts Saints beat Preston at home, Leicester draw with Sunderland away -> Saints 79pts, Leicester 83pts Saints beat Sunderland at home, Leicester draw with Hull away -> Saints 82pts, Leicester 84pts Leicester v Saints - draw -> Saints 83pts, Leicester 85pts Saints beat Middlesbro, Leicester draw away at Bristol City -> Saints 86pts, Leicester 86pts I have to say that even if we can get level on points with them by then, with Ipswich away as our next match, getting above them by then is unlikely! What do you think? What are Leeds and Ipswich doing in this scenario? I guess just, you know, losing and drawing and shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 These threes always pop up around this point in the season, regardless of our position and league. In the Premier League it was usually people dreaming up fantasy scenarios whereby dreadful teams at the bottom of the table suddenly start averaging top four form for the rest of the season and we get relegated, having been ten points above the drop zone in March. We aren’t catching Leicester. We have consistently been 10-15 points behind all season and will remain so, even if they lose to Leeds and the gap ebbs and flows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 It’s just about possible, but vanishingly unlikely unless we beat them at their place. If we manage that, it is maybe a 5/1 or 6/1 shot to catch them? Obviously, that’s to catch Leicester. To win the league, we also need to be ahead of Leeds & Ipswich. So even if Leicester lose all their remaining matches, that doesn’t gift Saints 1st place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 5 minutes ago, Lighthouse said: These threes always pop up around this point in the season, regardless of our position and league. In the Premier League it was usually people dreaming up fantasy scenarios whereby dreadful teams at the bottom of the table suddenly start averaging top four form for the rest of the season and we get relegated, having been ten points above the drop zone in March. We aren’t catching Leicester. We have consistently been 10-15 points behind all season and will remain so, even if they lose to Leeds and the gap ebbs and flows. If we win our game in hand and beat them at the KingPower, we’d be 5 points behind them with 12 other matches to play. Big ifs…but seems to me to be just doable in those circumstances, but we’d need to be pretty faultless and require them to slip up a little. If we don’t win at their place, it does start to seem barely conceivable possibility - a mathematical chance, but hardly a real one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 (edited) If you think bookies’ odds are a reasonable guide to probabilities, we are currently 9/1 to win the league (ie a 10% chance). So maybe I was even a little bit pessimistic in my posts above. I guess we’d be maybe 3/1 to win at their place? If you wave some magic wand and “make that happen”, that would suggest we’d then be about 3 or 4/1 to win the league. Edited February 18 by SaintBobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stknowle Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Middlesborough's win yesterday was one of those freak results that happen from time to time where the best side doesn't win.. Leicester 24 shots 2 on target 1 goal. Boro 5 shots 2 on target 2 goals. Leicester missed 4 absolute golden chances. It won't be the first in a string of losses and draws as Leicester's form collapses. They will probably drop a few more points this season and so will we. We won't be catching Leicester. All that said doubtless there was a similar thread to this on Reading's forum ref their chances of catching us and Wham at about this time of the season we last got promoted from this division so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 4 minutes ago, stknowle said: Middlesborough's win yesterday was one of those freak results that happen from time to time where the best side doesn't win.. Leicester 24 shots 2 on target 1 goal. Boro 5 shots 2 on target 2 goals. Leicester missed 4 absolute golden chances. It won't be the first in a string of losses and draws as Leicester's form collapses. They will probably drop a few more points this season and so will we. We won't be catching Leicester. All that said doubtless there was a similar thread to this on Reading's forum ref their chances of catching us and Wham at about this time of the season we last got promoted from this division so.... I think the bookies are about right, we have maybe a 15% chance of catching them (and a 10% chance of winning the league) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnceaSaintalwaysaSaint Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Leicester missed a lot of chances yesterday but the good news is Iheanacho is back, so we have a chance of catching them! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toadhall Saint Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 No chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tauro Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 If course we can catch them. However it would require us to go on a run of winning all but 1/2 of our remaining games. They would need an implosion of sorts, which can happen... We sort of did it ourselves when we allowed reading to come from 8 points behind to beat us to the top spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gio1saints Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 8 hours ago, SaintJackoInHurworth said: With Saints beating West Brom yesterday and Leicester coming unstuck against Middlesbrough, it begins to beg the question, can Saints catch Leicester? If so when could that happen. I think it is possible, but I am under no illusion that it will be easy! I don't think we can do it before we play them though. However, if we can draw against them when we play them, it might be possible to catch them in the following game against Middlesbrough, as illustrated below: Currently: Saints 67pts, Leicester 78pts Saints beat Hull, Leicester no fixture -> Saints 70pts, Leicester 78pts Leicester draw away to Leeds, Saints beat Millwall -> Saints 73pts, Leicester 79pts Saints beat Brum away, Leicester beat QPR -> Saints 76pts, Leicester 82pts Saints beat Preston at home, Leicester draw with Sunderland away -> Saints 79pts, Leicester 83pts Saints beat Sunderland at home, Leicester draw with Hull away -> Saints 82pts, Leicester 84pts Leicester v Saints - draw -> Saints 83pts, Leicester 85pts Saints beat Middlesbro, Leicester draw away at Bristol City -> Saints 86pts, Leicester 86pts I have to say that even if we can get level on points with them by then, with Ipswich away as our next match, getting above them by then is unlikely! What do you think? Thank you @SaintJackoInHurworthfor the upbeat way of looking at these fixtures. It’s very unlikely but not impossible as you say. Nothing great was ever achieved without one person choosing to think differently. Never stop defying the prevailing paradigm! Especially here with the resident living dead that thrive on morsels such as your post. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doctoroncall Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 hour ago, Lighthouse said: These threes always pop up around this point in the season, regardless of our position and league. In the Premier League it was usually people dreaming up fantasy scenarios whereby dreadful teams at the bottom of the table suddenly start averaging top four form for the rest of the season and we get relegated, having been ten points above the drop zone in March. We aren’t catching Leicester. We have consistently been 10-15 points behind all season and will remain so, even if they lose to Leeds and the gap ebbs and flows. After September loses, we have caught up with them by something like three points and that was including our unbeaten run. Had to carry that to the end of the season to have had a chance but not going to turnover an eleven point gap in 14 games with Leicester suffering a collapse in form and results. Nice to dream but there is also Leeds and Ipswich to think about. Leicester are on course to achieve 104 to 108 points this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 16 minutes ago, gio1saints said: Nothing great was ever achieved without one person choosing to think differently. Never stop defying the prevailing paradigm! You realise that people writing on this forum has fuck all impact on our results or Leicester's or Leeds. Or anyone. You're not Rosa Parks, mate. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 (edited) 8 minutes ago, CB Fry said: You realise that people writing on this forum has fuck all impact on our results or Leicester's or Leeds. Or anyone. You're not Rosa Parks, mate. I disagree look at how Sog has ended global racism by calling out the Tommy Robinson supporters on the lounge. Edited February 18 by Turkish 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morse Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 No. Getting second is going to be a hard enough job. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexLaw76 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 We put man on the moon, so............. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
austsaint Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, AlexLaw76 said: We put man on the moon, so............. One of the Armstrong brothers, wasn't it? 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gio1saints Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 30 minutes ago, CB Fry said: You realise that people writing on this forum has fuck all impact on our results or Leicester's or Leeds. Or anyone. You're not Rosa Parks, mate. Hilarious and well informed as ever.😇 No didn’t realise that what people think has no impact on results. Thanks for the update. And just in case I was thinking I was someone else, again thank you for letting me know I’m not Rosa Parks. You are a kind person that’s for sure. Don’t know what I or this forum would do without you being so helpful - especially now you consider me a mate, what with your info knowledge and suggestions about stuff. 😇 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee On Solent Saint Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 37 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said: We put man on the moon, so............. Or did we? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_clark Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Yes they can. Will we? Probably not. But I'm gonna dream anyway. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom & Gerry Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Who knows ? Leicester have been going along untroubled with no pressure. 2 defeats in a row and they might start to feel the heat. 2 defeats can lead to 4 you know. Leeds look unstoppable at the moment with their improved away form but so did Saints until Bristol. Ipswich look over their bad spell. As for the play offs I'd have bitten your hand off before the season started to be a shoe in with 14 games to go. If we got to the final it would be a new experience. A good one or not I'll tell you after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_clark Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Leeds all the way. Go for the title lads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinR Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 (edited) 1 hour ago, Doctoroncall said: After September loses, we have caught up with them by something like three points and that was including our unbeaten run. Had to carry that to the end of the season to have had a chance but not going to turnover an eleven point gap in 14 games with Leicester suffering a collapse in form and results. Nice to dream but there is also Leeds and Ipswich to think about. Leicester are on course to achieve 104 to 108 points this season. That's presuming things stay as they are. They never stay as they are. Edited February 18 by JustinR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 58 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said: We put man on the moon, so............. Who is this ‘we’ whereof you speak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said: Who is this ‘we’ whereof you speak? R.E.M. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 hour ago, AlexLaw76 said: We put man on the moon, so............. They said man would never climb Everest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whelk Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Boring if we were way clear of 3rd. More fun going back and forth but clearly Leeds getting beat is preference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_clark Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 24 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said: Who is this ‘we’ whereof you speak? Southampton FC. Someone grabbed hold of that Idiakez penalty V Derby and ended up there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toussaint Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I’d be ecstatic with automatic promotion, even more so with a Wembley play off final victory. Winning the league has not entered my thoughts as a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 It's not out of the question that were we to win our game in hand and beat Millwall, the table could be. Leicester 78 Saints 73 Leeds 72 Ipswich 72 In that scenario I don't think anyone is guaranteeing Leicester the title. Could all change obviously but would be the closest anyone has come in a good while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfc4prem Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 5 minutes ago, hypochondriac said: It's not out of the question that were we to win our game in hand and beat Millwall, the table could be. Leicester 78 Saints 73 Leeds 72 Ipswich 72 In that scenario I don't think anyone is guaranteeing Leicester the title. Could all change obviously but would be the closest anyone has come in a good while. It would be like going back to the table early in September. Problem is that Leicester have players coming back from AFCON and actually played pretty well against Middlesbrough. Certainly can't see a dip in form on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan The Flames Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 This thread is fly paper for the miserable. It's great to dream. I'll be down for the open top bus parade. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 22 minutes ago, sfc4prem said: It would be like going back to the table early in September. Problem is that Leicester have players coming back from AFCON and actually played pretty well against Middlesbrough. Certainly can't see a dip in form on the horizon. If they lose to Leeds next week then they will be thinking they have to avoid defeat to us at all costs. Even a draw to us in that scenario could leave Leeds or Ipswich just three behind them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintsFan86 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Tinpot mentality on this forum, there really is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexLaw76 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, SaintsFan86 said: Tinpot mentality on this forum, there really is. This makes no sense what so ever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintsFan86 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, AlexLaw76 said: This makes no sense what so ever Yeah it does, Rather play it safe than aspire to achieve more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexLaw76 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, SaintsFan86 said: Yeah it does, Rather play it safe than aspire to achieve more. who is playing it safe? The players? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintsFan86 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, AlexLaw76 said: who is playing it safe? The players? The fans mentality... That's why I said this forum has a tinpot mentality. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexLaw76 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, SaintsFan86 said: The fans mentality... That's why I said this forum has a tinpot mentality. what, by saying we are not catching Leicester? It is reality. Not sure fans comments on here make any difference to anything what so ever. but anyway, hey ho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
east-stand-nic Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Lots of If's, But's and Maybe's here but, should Leeds win, us and Ipswich win BOTH our games this week, then table will look like this (GD guess) # Team Pl W D L F A GD Pts 1 Leicester City 34 25 3 6 70 28 42 78 2 Southampton 34 22 7 5 67 39 28 73 3 Leeds United 34 22 6 6 63 27 36 72 4 Ipswich Town 34 21 9 4 65 42 23 72 Surely we all wants Leeds to win? This would be well exciting and also, keep us in control of our own destiny and still give us a chance to win the league. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintsFan86 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 This week COULD be huge, saints om paper at least look likely to take 6 from the next 2 home games, and I'd back Leeds to beat Leicester at Elland Road comfortably. All of a sudden we are 5 away from Leicster.. They wobble again the next game and get a draw and all of sudden they potentially only 3 points ahead of us, and 4 ahead of Leeds / Ipswich. Its incredibly likely the added pressure will cause mistakes from Leicester too that they aren't used to so close to the end of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee On Solent Saint Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Anyone who wants Leeds to win really does need their heads wobbled. We are in a three way fight for second place. No amount of if's buts or maybe's is going to change that. It's second place or the play offs. That's the stark reality of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfc4prem Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I think Tuesday's win will make those asking for a Leeds win even more persistent and convinced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint IQ Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Huge Leicester win or I'll take a draw with a 110 minute game and plenty of injuries to mainly Leeds players Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexLaw76 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 8 minutes ago, SaintsFan86 said: This week COULD be huge, saints om paper at least look likely to take 6 from the next 2 home games, and I'd back Leeds to beat Leicester at Elland Road comfortably. All of a sudden we are 5 away from Leicster.. They wobble again the next game and get a draw and all of sudden they potentially only 3 points ahead of us, and 4 ahead of Leeds / Ipswich. Its incredibly likely the added pressure will cause mistakes from Leicester too that they aren't used to so close to the end of the season. will the added pressure cause saints to make mistakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee On Solent Saint Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 8 minutes ago, SaintsFan86 said: 9 minutes ago, SaintsFan86 said: This week COULD be huge, saints om paper at least look likely to take 6 from the next 2 home games, and I'd back Leeds to beat Leicester at Elland Road comfortably. All of a sudden we are 5 away from Leicster.. They wobble again the next game and get a draw and all of sudden they potentially only 3 points ahead of us, and 4 ahead of Leeds / Ipswich. Its incredibly likely the added pressure will cause mistakes from Leicester too that they aren't used to so close to the end of the season. They've lost five games after 33 matches, do you seriously see them losing another 3/4 in the next 15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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