25/26 - Non Saints Games

[hypochondriac]

2 minutes ago, bpsaint said:

Indeed. Even if Ipswich had lost today we’d still be relying on them not winning their game in hand so I consider today a decent result for us as it keeps us ahead of Boro.

 

Incorrect. 

[benjii]

I will add that Boro have Wednesday and Watford at home then Wrexham away, so could well have won their last 3 with a decent GD tally.

[coalman]

2 minutes ago, benjii said:

Dunno about that. If they lost it would be within our hands to finish above Ipswich if we score lots of goals. Now it isn't, we need them to drop points in another match.

Unless I'm looking at the wrong table.

We should ignore Millwall at our peril

[benjii]

1 minute ago, AlexLaw76 said:

They still have a game in hand???

Yes, but if we win all our games they couldn't get more points than us, had they lost today.

[benjii]

Just now, coalman said:

We should ignore Millwall at our peril

I'm not. They are the biggest worry!

[hypochondriac]

Just now, coalman said:

We should ignore Millwall at our peril

If we win all our games and Millwall finish above us then you have to hold your hands up and say well played 

[benjii]

Just now, hypochondriac said:

If we win all our games and Millwall finish above us then you have to hold your hands up and say well played 

Still be annoying though.

[bpsaint]

1 minute ago, benjii said:

We would have been level on points so they could win all their games apart from against us and we could still have finished above them. Albeit we might have been unlikely to have overturned the GD deficit.

We’d be level on points but they still have a game in hand which we’d need them not to win. Even if they draw that we’d have played the same number of games but they’ll be 2 ahead, of course meaning we could overtake them with a win at St Mary’s against them. That would mean the GD issue isn’t a problem.

[hypochondriac]

Just now, benjii said:

Still be annoying though.

Blame will still.

[Pamplemousse]

We still need Ipswich to slip up as well as us beating them, with Charlton and West Brom away for them to play before us, not unlikely that they draw at least one of those games. They have QPR at home on the last day so you'd expect them to comfortably win that one.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Middlesbrough have 2 easy home games coming up, so personally I think them being out of it was good for us overall. Had they won, there’d be 4 teams fighting it out, now there’s 3. 

[benjii]

1 minute ago, bpsaint said:

We’d be level on points but they still have a game in hand which we’d need them not to win. Even if they draw that we’d have played the same number of games but they’ll be 2 ahead, of course meaning we could overtake them with a win at St Mary’s against them. That would mean the GD issue isn’t a problem.

No. If they lost today the most points they could get would have been 84. Same as us. 

[millsy]

Charlton and WBA still fighting to stay up. Hopefully they both put in big performances against Ipswich, and one of them can take some points off Ipswich.

[bpsaint]

1 minute ago, benjii said:

No. If they lost today the most points they could get would have been 84. Same as us. 

Even If they’d lost today the most they could get is 87.

[benjii]

Just now, millsy said:

Charlton and WBA still fighting to stay up. Hopefully they both put in big performances against Ipswich, and one of them can take some points off Ipswich.

Wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for WBA to get a 6 point deduction pronto. Leicester could do us a favour if they sort themselves out.

[benjii]

Just now, bpsaint said:

Even If they’d lost today the most they could get is 87.

Not if they lost to us. 84 then. Sorry, thought our glorious victory was a commonly accepted premise!

[coalman]

3 minutes ago, millsy said:

Charlton and WBA still fighting to stay up. Hopefully they both put in big performances against Ipswich, and one of them can take some points off Ipswich.

Nathan Jones to the rescue?

[bpsaint]

5 minutes ago, benjii said:

Not if they lost to us. 84 then. Sorry, thought our glorious victory was a commonly accepted premise!

Right I’m with you! Ok I was under the impression that no matter what happens we needed Ipswich to not win today nor their game in hand, then then the GD debate becomes a non issue.

All this is pointless of course if Millwall carry on the way they are.

[woodsaint1]

Even if we come up short, neither of those two teams are worrying me should we see them in the playoffs.

Think Milwall would cause us the most difficulties, given how direct and physical they are

[RedWillie]

12 minutes ago, benjii said:

No. If they lost today the most points they could get would have been 84. Same as us. 

As long as we beat them 🤞

[Hawkswood]

17 minutes ago, coalman said:

We should ignore Millwall at our peril

They've got a nice run in as well

 

[Doctoroncall]

28 minutes ago, benjii said:

Leicester could do us a favour if they sort themselves out.

I’m hoping the beans I’ve planted will grow so big I can find the golden goose. 

[Dangerspoon]

15 minutes ago, Hawkswood said:

They've got a nice run in as well

 

Easily the easiest…. (Unless WBA get a points deduction - the threat of it helps us as it means Oxford and Leicester have more to play for)

*Southampton*
Tue 21 Apr: Southampton vs Bristol City
Tue 28 Apr: Southampton vs Ipswich Town
Sat 2 May: Preston North End vs Southampton

---

*Ipswich Town*
Wed 22 Apr: Charlton Athletic vs Ipswich Town
Sat 25 Apr: West Bromwich Albion vs Ipswich Town
Tue 28 Apr: Southampton vs Ipswich Town
Sat 2 May: Ipswich Town vs QPR

---

*Millwall*
Tue 21 Apr: Stoke City vs Millwall
Fri 24 Apr: Leicester City vs Millwall
Sat 2 May: Millwall vs Oxford United

---

*Middlesbrough*
Wed 22 Apr: Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Wednesday
Sat 25 Apr: Middlesbrough vs Watford
Sat 2 May: Wrexham vs Middlesbrough

 

[sockeye]

GD basicially doesn't matter now because we need to win all 3 really to have a chance at autos (its unrealistic to expect both of them to do worse than WWD), and there is no scenario where ipswich / millwall can match us on 84 points

assuming saints WWW at 84, and thus we ignore ipswich's game against saints in the following calculations cos they get 0 points from it

ipswich / millwall WWW 85, they finish above us

ipswich / millwall WWD 83, they finish below us

in short, we need to win all 3, millwall drop points, and ipswich drop points

big ask? yes, but we just have to win all 3 basicially because its out of our hands other than that

[SW11_Saint]

40 minutes ago, millsy said:

Charlton and WBA still fighting to stay up. Hopefully they both put in big performances against Ipswich, and one of them can take some points off Ipswich.

We need a favour from the best manager in Europe…

[Stud mark of doom]

Only a couple of weeks ago we were doing these calculation to see if we were likely to make the play offs.

Now second is very much in play - the other sides need to suddenly find some form to stop us. 

Ipswich have won 3 in 8.

Millwall have won 2 in 6.

We are on our best run in 108 years. 

[hypochondriac]

28 minutes ago, sockeye said:

GD basicially doesn't matter now because we need to win all 3 really to have a chance at autos (its unrealistic to expect both of them to do worse than WWD), and there is no scenario where ipswich / millwall can match us on 84 points

assuming saints WWW at 84, and thus we ignore ipswich's game against saints in the following calculations cos they get 0 points from it

ipswich / millwall WWW 85, they finish above us

ipswich / millwall WWD 83, they finish below us

in short, we need to win all 3, millwall drop points, and ipswich drop points

big ask? yes, but we just have to win all 3 basicially because its out of our hands other than that

What if Ipswich lose to West brom and draw with us?

[VectisSaint]

1 hour ago, benjii said:

Dunno about that. If they lost it would be within our hands to finish above Ipswich if we score lots of goals. Now it isn't, we need them to drop points in another match.

Unless I'm looking at the wrong table.

The point is we need them to drop points in another match, whether they drew or lost today, it makes no difference. In one match you can either drop 2 points or 3 (draw or lose), you can't drop one point in a match.

[sockeye]

11 minutes ago, hypochondriac said:

What if Ipswich lose to West brom and draw with us?

assuming other games are wins, we would be WWD putting us on 82, and ipswich would be WLDW putting them on 83

we need all 9 points in my opinion, its just so unlikely we could get 2nd with 82

[Sheaf Saint]

Forest 3-1 up against Burnley. Will give them a 5 point cushion over Spurs.

[saintant]

1 hour ago, Pamplemousse said:

We still need Ipswich to slip up as well as us beating them, with Charlton and West Brom away for them to play before us, not unlikely that they draw at least one of those games. They have QPR at home on the last day so you'd expect them to comfortably win that one.

If they beat Charlton and West Brom it is likely they can afford to lose to us as they'll expect to beat QPR at home.

[East Kent Saint]

So much pointless speculation !

[macca155]

Good result today really. Pushes Boro further behind Saints and pulls Ipswich even closer.

All we know is that Hull are pretty much out of the automatic fight. 

Assuming Saints beat Ipswich, and if they don't the discussion on autos ends anyway, the maximum each side can get is.

Ioswich 85

Millwall 85

Saints 84

Middlesbrough 82

We still need two teams to drop points and somehow win ours.

I was convinced it would all be over by now. It's incredible how Saints keep raising their game, but the dice just keep on rolling in our favour.

Onto Tue/Wed games, we go again.

Both Ipswich and Millwall will be desperate to avoid Saints in the play off . That's going to create extra pressure. 

Players of all sides will be knackered so expect the unexpected.

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I Still blame Will.