Play Off Chase

[2Morrow]

4 Points off sixth

45 points to play for (15 Games left)

Plausible again? Or ready for another crumble?

I fall on the side that a club with the resources we have at our disposable should really be able to do it.

 

[LGTL]

Nine teams going for one spot really. Unlikely but possible I guess. 

[Saint Troy]

2 minutes ago, LGTL said:

Nine teams going for one spot really. Unlikely but possible I guess. 

11 perhaps with the two with a game in hand! 

[Crab Lungs]

Entirely possible but … I fear we are some way off the top five in the league, going on our showings vs them. Could squeak in though…

[CB Fry]

We need to win a serious number of games. 

"4 points off sixth" is written like that's not much.

It's fucking loads, especially when there are 7 other teams above us and closer than we are.

We win our next 2 in a row - 5 wins out of 6, 4 straight wins, 49 points - and we will still be way off sixth. Maybe we'd be 8th, more likely 9th or 10th.

It's not impossible but the run we need to go on is very difficult. It will be relentless.

[SNSUN]

The last 3 (for a sample size) 6th place finishers finished on 69, 73 and 68 points. 

So we possibly need 25 to 30 points to finish 6th. 9 to 10-ish wins from 15 games, possibly 8 with some draws. I think it's beyond us unless we remain consistent and keep finding ways to win. Consistency and dropping points have been our achilles heel this season. I think only Wrexham and Derby have dropped more points than us from winning positions, both play off hopefuls. 

[LoyalSaintSO50]

Still got hope. Some winnable games coming up. Today was the one I thought we’d come unstuck and at half time didn’t see us winning. Then, bullet header, keep the faith 😇

[Chez]

14 minutes ago, CB Fry said:

We need to win a serious number of games. 

"4 points off sixth" is written like that's not much.

It's fucking loads, especially when there are 7 other teams above us and closer than we are.

We win our next 2 in a row - 5 wins out of 6, 4 straight wins, 49 points - and we will still be way off sixth. Maybe we'd be 8th, more likely 9th or 10th.

It's not impossible but the run we need to go on is very difficult. It will be relentless.

But once you start winning it can become a habit.

If you have decent players, a decent plan and the all important confidence, then you can become unstoppable. One defeat and it could all go to shit mind, but maybe it never happens. Maybe.

[goodymatt]

6 minutes ago, SNSUN said:

The last 3 (for a sample size) 6th place finishers finished on 69, 73 and 68 points. 

So we possibly need 25 to 30 points to finish 6th. 9 to 10-ish wins from 15 games, possibly 8 with some draws. I think it's beyond us unless we remain consistent and keep finding ways to win. Consistency and dropping points have been our achilles heel this season. I think only Wrexham and Derby have dropped more points than us from winning positions, both play off hopefuls. 

We are averaging 63.8 points over the season so far and that includes 2 big stretches where we only won 1 game. 70 plus points doesn’t feel beyond us if we can avoid going on a third shocking run. But can we?!

[Football Special]

17 minutes ago, CB Fry said:

We need to win a serious number of games. 

"4 points off sixth" is written like that's not much.

It's fucking loads, especially when there are 7 other teams above us and closer than we are.

We win our next 2 in a row - 5 wins out of 6, 4 straight wins, 49 points - and we will still be way off sixth. Maybe we'd be 8th, more likely 9th or 10th.

It's not impossible but the run we need to go on is very difficult. It will be relentless.

Agreed, ultimately we're still bottom half of the table, no point looking too far ahead until we at least get into top half of the table , see where we are end of the month 

[StrangelyBrown]

Possible, but unlikely given the run we would need to go on.

Having said that we've made a good start - I thought we needed 10 wins from 16. 1 down with 15 to go.

[Lee On Solent Saint]

With the number of teams still involved in a play off chase, a few are going to suffer a drop in form at some point. Smaller squad size will play a part too. Teams are taking points of each other as well. 

[Scummer]

I could see us getting to 70 points, that's basically a continuation of the points per game we've achieved since Tonda took charge

[Sir Ralph]

We have plenty of winnable games in the next few months. Beat Leicester on Tuesday and we have a nice run, subject to players having the right mentality 

[Gloucester Saint]

It’s a long shot still but win the next couple and it gets interesting.

[Ted Bates Statue]

My stance on this is we are still 14th. Not even top half yet. But let's have a bit of fun and dream.

So what would our route into the play-offs look like? ok we are currently still last in our mini-league of 9. But we've beaten Stoke and Watford in the last week so that's a good start.

We have five more six-pointers starting with QPR coming up soon. The next four come in our last six matches of the season: Wrexham, Derby, Bristol City and finally Preston away on the last day. I'd say all are must-wins but Wrexham away is the biggest as it stands and we've only gained one point on them since Tonda's appointment.

We have eight fixtures remaining against the current bottom nine sides. The bottom five - West Brom, Leicester, Blackburn, Oxford, Wednesday should all be beatable although sides like these can always spring results towards the end of the season, especially if they have a sniff of survival. We're not great away so I could see us dropping points against West Brom and Swansea. Norwich have also been in very good form since Clement took over.

Apart from that, Coventry and Ipswich would be bonuses, confidence-boosters if we get results off them especially if they fail to secure automatic promotion and we face them in the play-offs.

So to summarise, there are five specific fixtures that I'd consider to be must-wins, and then beat a good proportion of the lower-table sides to get around 30-35 points and get into the top 6, by winning 5 of the last 7 as we did in 06-07. It's a lot to ask as I think we're about 7 points behind where we need to be right now. We could easily draw a few, lose a couple, some first XI injuries in a long season and suddenly it's season over before the end of April.

We are in decent form and with a settled side, let's see about getting into the top ten first and see where things take us. 

Edited Saturday at 21:46 by Ted Bates Statue

[Baird of the land]

I can see a heartbreaking loss to Preston on the final day in our future.

[AlexLaw76]

We have left it too late. Too much to do I am afraid 

[gammon cheeks]

We will finish 6th is my prediction 

[SouSaint]

5 minutes ago, Baird of the land said:

I can see a heartbreaking loss to Preston on the final day in our future.

Wouldn't be so bad. Sport Republic would only serve us up another embarrassing season if we somehow fluked a play off win. 

[macca155]

It's a pretty tall order, 9 wins (or equivalent) the very minimum. If they can get some momentum, the gap will shrink pretty quickly, and the other teams will be wary of Saints.

Good news is Saints are hitting a run of fixtures against sides below them in the table. QPR the exception. They should be able to get some form going with those games.

Then its Coventry, Ipswich, Wrexham, and Derby. That's where the season will be defined.

Probably not worth even thinking about it until Saints are knocking on the door.

They aren't making up 15 points to the autos. I think we can be sure of that.

[JohnnyShearer2.0]

I can see Hull tailing off a little so it might be 2 places up for grabs.

[Saint Fan CaM]

It would be tough enough even if the teams above us didn’t win a point while we climbed up. But obviously that’s not going to happen - there’s every likelihood that 6 teams will win as many points as us, or more. Plus there are teams just below us that could start picking up points too. So a play off place is possible, but highly unlikely.

[saintwbu]

For some context, Coventry would be 5th in the table right now in the season we went up with Ipswich and Leicester. This league is not at the level of what it was two seasons ago. 5 teams between us and the playoffs have dropped points this weekend. If we keep winning games, we make the play offs.

[Willo of Whiteley]

Teams will be taking points off each other in the play off mix, and March is I’d normally the time when the relegation threatened teams start to pull their finger out too.

It’s going to be an interesting one.

[Willo of Whiteley]

I reckon you need maybe 25-28 more points to make the play offs.

Being brutally honest and despite or recent showing, I still don’t see us getting that, we’re way too inconsistent and fragile when the going gets tough. We tend to have to rely on a terrible team to let us win to get us back on track.

[die Mannyschaft]

Its out of Saints hands. At this stage its how may points can teams above us lose but not losing to teams below us closely doing help either if we draw. 

We are relying on team below us to take points off teams above us but that won't happen for sll teams like Preston beat Pompey.  Bristol,  Millwall and Birmingham also won and have not really gained much. 

Can Saints really get another 8,9 or 10 wins. Its like the great escape but in reverse. We were very lucky today. Can we get away with stupid back pass blunders and opposition missing sitters for 8 games. 

 

[goodymatt]

6 hours ago, die Mannyschaft said:

Its out of Saints hands. At this stage its how may points can teams above us lose but not losing to teams below us closely doing help either if we draw. 

We are relying on team below us to take points off teams above us but that won't happen for sll teams like Preston beat Pompey.  Bristol,  Millwall and Birmingham also won and have not really gained much. 

Can Saints really get another 8,9 or 10 wins. Its like the great escape but in reverse. We were very lucky today. Can we get away with stupid back pass blunders and opposition missing sitters for 8 games. 

 

It’s definitely not out of our hands. Teams are playing each other and so will drop points. We also have a lot of the teams in the race left to play - Wrexham, Preston, Derby, Bristol and QPR. The only team in the hunt with a better record last 5 games is Birmingham, who we don’t play.

The gap is only 4 points with 45 points left to play for, It is in our hands, the question is whether we can show the consistency required to take it. Given our season to date, I can see why anyone would have their doubts. 

If I remember correctly we’ve gone on 2 horrific stretches this season, 1 win in 13 and 1 win in 9. Yet we still find ourselves only 4 points off. It’s fair to say the teams we are fighting against for the last spot haven’t been very consistent either.

[UpweySaint]

Heart says yes, head says no. Either way if we can build momentum and a settled side there is no reason that can’t carry over into next season. Our abysmal start has cost us this year - so many reasons for it we all know about.

If we do somehow go on a great run and get past the traffic it will be bloody brilliant. While I would be anxious as hell going into the play offs anything can happen 🤷‍♂️

[Matthew Le God]

9 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

We have left it too late. Too much to do I am afraid 

A 4 point gap to 6th place from 15 games is not too much. Especially as we still have to play a few of those above us, including the club that is currently 6th.

We made a 3 point gain on 6th place this weekend alone, and have 15 more match days to make up the remaining 4 points. 

Edited yesterday at 07:25 by Matthew Le God

[SNSUN]

I've had a look at all our promotion contenders Forums from Swansea up to Wrexham (because I'm at work on a Sunday morning and it's dead here) and in those that have Championship or Play-off chase threads, there's not one mention of us (Apart from Watford's for obvious reasons). So it seems we are sneaking up the table unnoticed. Fine by me. A couple of the forums are worried about Birmingham the most it seems. Watford seem to think they're sinking towards the bottom half, Derby and QPR seem to be surprised at where they are and have doubts they can do it. I guess any of us in the play-off race probably look at the table, see the few points required and think "we can do it". The difference is, on paper at least, we still have one of the better squads in the division. It's now up to Tonda to deliver the wins we need.

Another way to look at it is that following our last 4 games, we probably only need another 7 points to avoid relegation. 😁😎

[Saint86]

14 hours ago, 2Morrow said:

4 Points off sixth

45 points to play for (15 Games left)

Plausible again? Or ready for another crumble?

I fall on the side that a club with the resources we have at our disposable should really be able to do it.

 

What do you mean plausible, we should be the favourites to go up out of all the teams below Ipswich... Who I sincerely hope get automatics and dump Coventry into the playoffs - otherwise our route will be a lot harder.

It's Qué Sera, Sera time. Again.

Edited yesterday at 08:30 by Saint86

[Chez]

8 hours ago, saintwbu said:

For some context, Coventry would be 5th in the table right now in the season we went up with Ipswich and Leicester. This league is not at the level of what it was two seasons ago. 5 teams between us and the playoffs have dropped points this weekend. If we keep winning games, we make the play offs.

Maybe the top three or four are not as stand out, but the rest of the league might be a bit better? It's hard to tell as we are not as good as we were, so everyone we play this season looks better than they did two seasons ago. 

Great run of games coming up. We could win them all. 

[pingpong]

We need around 7 wins with some draws, based on previous years points tallies, perfectly doable with TONDA form so far.

A bunch of teams play each other too.  Wrexham play Bristol next i think? so if we win our next game, one or both of those are guaranteed in reach, and likely it'll look even closer.

Right now, every game is critical to get momentum and to close that gap and get in position. 

Conversely, if any of the 10 or so teams have a rocky period, including us, they'll sink out of the picture.

I think we'll be within 3 pts of playoffs on final day.

[saintant]

9 hours ago, Saint Fan CaM said:

It would be tough enough even if the teams above us didn’t win a point while we climbed up. But obviously that’s not going to happen - there’s every likelihood that 6 teams will win as many points as us, or more. Plus there are teams just below us that could start picking up points too. So a play off place is possible, but highly unlikely.

The way I see it we need a really exceptional run from now to the end of the season - if we achieve it the likelihood of 6 teams winning as many points as us is remote. Simply put we clearly have to run the best set of results out of the teams chasing 6th spot and that would probably get us over the line. Realistically I think we'll fall short because we are still not sparkling or dominating games.

[James G]

15 hours ago, 2Morrow said:

4 Points off sixth

45 points to play for (15 Games left)

Plausible again? Or ready for another crumble?

I fall on the side that a club with the resources we have at our disposable should really be able to do it.

 

I think it's plausible. We were 10 points off maybe 4 games ago and I said it was plausible.

Stats wise, we are third and numbers average out over time. In the same way Villa were third (overplaying their stats)  in the Premier League and Man U (underplaying) were upper to mid table and now the numbers are playing out

It might not happen, but we have a good chance, and Larin looked the right kind of player we needed because Armstrong was the biggest reason we were underplaying

[Whitey Grandad]

15 hours ago, CB Fry said:

We need to win a serious number of games. 

"4 points off sixth" is written like that's not much.

It's fucking loads, especially when there are 7 other teams above us and closer than we are.

We win our next 2 in a row - 5 wins out of 6, 4 straight wins, 49 points - and we will still be way off sixth. Maybe we'd be 8th, more likely 9th or 10th.

It's not impossible but the run we need to go on is very difficult. It will be relentless.

Exactly. "sixth" is not one particular team but the best of every team below fifth at that point of the season. We would have to outplay every one of the teams above us. Not completely impossible but not likely to happen. 

[Whitey Grandad]

47 minutes ago, James G said:

I think it's plausible. We were 10 points off maybe 4 games ago and I said it was plausible.

Stats wise, we are third and numbers average out over time. In the same way Villa were third (overplaying their stats)  in the Premier League and Man U (underplaying) were upper to mid table and now the numbers are playing out

It might not happen, but we have a good chance, and Larin looked the right kind of player we needed because Armstrong was the biggest reason we were underplaying

Armstrong was ok and we have the goals to show for it. Five at the back was a bigger factor.

[The Kraken]

2 hours ago, Matthew Le God said:

A 4 point gap to 6th place from 15 games is not too much. Especially as we still have to play a few of those above us, including the club that is currently 6th.

We made a 3 point gain on 6th place this weekend alone, and have 15 more match days to make up the remaining 4 points. 

He’s giving his opinion on whether we’ll make it or not. Everyone knows it’s feasible, the question is whether you think we’ll make top six or not.

Personally I don’t, I think there’s too many clubs in between us and we’re not quite good enough to go on the run I think we’ll need.

[SNSUN]

9 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

Exactly. "sixth" is not one particular team but the best of every team below fifth at that point of the season. We would have to outplay every one of the teams above us. Not completely impossible but not likely to happen. 

Not outplay as such - we could be crap and keep picking up wins. 😊 But yes we would need better results than the teams above us, and probably boost our goal difference to boot.

While they have a superior points total, there's nothing to say Hull or Millwall might go on a terrible run yet either. We may think it's 9 or 10 teams fighting for 6th place, but if their form dips it could be 11 or 12 teams fighting for 4th-6th place. It's unlikely but if everyone is fighting to pick up results to get into the play-offs, they could easily see us in their wing mirrors.

Of the teams ahead of us I think Stoke and Watford finish below us anyway. I still think we finish top half but short of the play-offs. I'd rather be pleasantly surprised if we got there than disappointed we didn't.

[coalman]

I think might sneak into the playoffs and arrive with enough momentum to squeak through again. Now we have a settled side and have cut out most of the suicidal play we've got a shot.

Yesterday we played poorly and got the result. Keeping clean sheets means you always have a chance.

Edozie coming back means we have three good wide options. Larin and Stewart can lead the line.

Playing 4 at the back means we press and win the ball higher up the pitch. Plus they seem to be running for each other again.

THB and Stephens look souch better as a two. Bree and Wellington mean fewer unchallenged crosses coming in.

Two from Downes, Jander and Charles is a good midfield. Azaz is getting the ball more where he can do damage.

There's a lot happening that seems positive. Not least that Tonda did adapt when it wasn't working. Albeit slower than we'd have liked.

[AlexLaw76]

I don think we will make that playoffs, too much to do.

Just got to hope we finish the season in form ready to start quickly next term

[die Mannyschaft]

The goal difference for some teams are similar to Saints so with our low conversation rate more Watford type 1 nil Arsenal shut outs may work😀

[Tom & Gerry]

Dreaming out loud, if we did make the play offs we would certainly have momentum  and it's usually the team with momentum that goes up rather than results earlier in the season.

[Willo of Whiteley]

The consistency piece is the bit that worries me. We can switch it on when we choose to but it relies on everyone, and we have largely inconsistent players in terms of form.

Can we reach it? Yes.

Do I think we will? I’m not sure.

If we did so I think we would go up? Yes, because we’d be the form team.

But if we did go up this season I think we’d plummet back down with a bigger bang than last season.

 

[Pamplemousse]

It's absolutely doable - especially as we still have to play most of those teams.

Wrexham and Preston away, Bristol City, Derby and QPR at home. 

But ultimately we just have to keep winning. It's in our own hands still.

[Yorkshire Saint]

It is doable but as crazy as it seems, I feel the Blades will be that annual one that come from nowhere yet ...

[SNSUN]

5 minutes ago, Willo of Whiteley said:

The consistency piece is the bit that worries me. We can switch it on when we choose to but it relies on everyone, and we have largely inconsistent players in terms of form.

Can we reach it? Yes.

Do I think we will? I’m not sure.

If we did so I think we would go up? Yes, because we’d be the form team.

But if we did go up this season I think we’d plummet back down with a bigger bang than last season.

 

Possibly, although we were so poor last season that would be quite an achievement - but I hope SR have learned their lesson. We have a few players out of contract at the end of the season or loans that may or may not be signed up. We will need a fairly big rebuild anyway - I'd rather go up and rebuild with, he says hopefully, Premier League quality players than rebuild with Championship players for another promotion push. And if we come down then hopefully we'd be in a better position than this season after we signed Championship quality players for our Premier League campaign of questionable talents. We'd have extra parachute payments too which would please SR no end. 

I didn't go as I was working but I don't think any Saints fan regrets winning the play-off final against Leeds, and if we were to go up this season, that would have to happen again. I'd take another play-off win even if it meant relegation next season.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Now we’re pretty much safe from relegation & The Skates finishing above us (which wasn’t a given when Still was here), we can go full out, nothing to lose, win every game mentality. Whether a modern coach will do that is debatable, he’s probably got one eye on not losing too many to remain in position for  next season. 

 

It’s unlikely, and we need everything going for us, particularly around injuries. We can’t lose Wellington or Bree, probably can’t lose the centre halves, and we need Ross Stewart to do something he’s been incapable of doing, stay fit. He’ll also need to go on a Saganowski like goal spree & the new bloke chipping in with a few here & there. 

The only department we can sustain injuries in and not have a big drop off in standard is central midfield. Whilst we could cover other areas ( bar full back) on the occasional basis, any 2 or 3 game unavailability anywhere other than central midfield and we won’t be good enough. Our starting 11 are capable of winning the amount of games needed, if they play well every week, but the replacements won’t be. 

[RedArmy]

Even if by some miracle we get there we aren’t good enough to win them. 
Maybe if Coventry continue to implode and Boro and Ipswich finish top 2 there’s a slim chance but realistically promotion is not going to happen this season.