EU referendum

[derry]

I received an email today from my sister who moved to Ireland about five years ago. the Irish government were campaigning for those with votes to support remain. In April my sister told me she wouldn't vote as she felt that it was inappropriate as she was living abroad. Today she told me after the Irish Government intervened she registered and voted leave. She felt it was none of the government's business to interfere and I suspect many others felt the same way. Another shot in the foot, just one of many. Small wonder their arrogance lost the referendum.

[badgerx16]

Proposals for Scotland to become an EU member are already opposed by Madrid, which fears it would encourage Catalan secession. As it did in 2014.

As any new member must be approved by all member states, this was always going to be the case, but the SNP will try to dismiss it.

[Winnersaint]

They just don't get it . Instead of understanding that they were on the wrong side of history , the wrong side of the argument , they think that the public were wrong . When you factor in reluctant remain people , or people like my dad who don't like the EU but followed the advice of the Government and others . The country is eurosceptic apart from about 30% , it's those 30% that are throwing their toys out of the pram . They seem to have a very simplistic view that you're either a full on idiot racist or an enlightened progressive . Take my Step mum & Dad , there's s ciggie paper between their views , but he tipped slightly over the remain line & her the leave . It's not a divided 50/50 country , it's more nuanced than that .

 

Had the EU remained the EEC and stopped prior to Masstrict the country there wouldn't even be a debate . The EU over stretched itself and we saw through it. The enlightened , progressive right on luvvies were too blind to see.

No-one likes a bad loser, but it cuts both ways. Perhaps that is something those crowing over the victory to leave would like to reflect on.

[Batman]

As any new member must be approved by all member states, this was always going to be the case, but the SNP will try to dismiss it.

 

around 25% more people voted to stay with the UK than who voted to remain in the EU. In Scotland that is

[Batman]

Leaders of German businesses and economists are starting to demand that there are no barriers regarding trade with the UK when we leave.

it will cost A LOT of german jobs other wise.

[Shance]

Lets put it this way. The majority of the voters are either working class or pensioners. If Camerons government hadn't **** over all of these including the disabled then maybe they'd have persuaded a few more to listen to his plea's. He's ****ed himself.

[Lighthouse]

Leaders of German businesses and economists are starting to demand that there are no barriers regarding trade with the UK when we leave.

it will cost A LOT of german jobs other wise.

 

The big question is to what extent other countries are willing to cut off their nose to spite their face.

 

The most sensible thing to do would be to continue with the status quo, at least to begin with, in terms of trade agreements. Of course the rest of Europe could play hard ball just to spite us and set an example to others who are considering a referendum but that could then of course backfire. If EU countries start offering unnecessarily poor trade agreements and both our economies suffer from it, they will just look like bullies in the eyes of the rest of Europe and it will further fuel the flames of other anti-EU rebellions.

[ooh it's a corner]

The big question is to what extent other countries are willing to cut off their nose to spite their face.

 

The most sensible thing to do would be to continue with the status quo, at least to begin with, in terms of trade agreements. Of course the rest of Europe could play hard ball just to spite us and set an example to others who are considering a referendum but that could then of course backfire. If EU countries start offering unnecessarily poor trade agreements and both our economies suffer from it, they will just look like bullies in the eyes of the rest of Europe and it will further fuel the flames of other anti-EU rebellions.

 

Whilst I do agree with you entirely, the sticking point will be;

 

If you want to trade with me, you must

a) Contribute to the EU pot

b) Allow freedom of movement for EU citizens

 

Point b) will be the obstacle.

[CB Fry]

Whilst I do agree with you entirely, the sticking point will be;

 

If you want to trade with me, you must

a) Contribute to the EU pot

b) Allow freedom of movement for EU citizens

 

Point b) will be the obstacle.

I think they both will be tricky.

 

The "countries won't cut their nose off to spite their face" point of view seems to come from a position that everyone, ultimately, will just accept whatever GB wants.

 

It's arguable we have today "cut our nose off" and we now move into multi lateral negotiations where we will be making concessions: that £350m new school and hospital every week might not quite completely actually happen entirely.

[Batman]

I think we will leave and become as suggested an "associated member" and pay a fee for free trade (weird) and that will be it.

[aintforever]

Whilst I do agree with you entirely, the sticking point will be;

 

If you want to trade with me, you must

a) Contribute to the EU pot

b) Allow freedom of movement for EU citizens

 

Point b) will be the obstacle.

 

But most of our MPs want b. Nothing much will change, we will just pay in less and have no say, maybe do a deal on immigration.

[CB Fry]

I think we will leave and become as suggested an "associated member" and pay a fee for free trade (weird) and that will be it.

That will be the jist of it. But whatever deal we do requires those various stakeholders to be able to walk away with a good deal.

 

Long way to go.

 

Spoiler alert: Farage won't like the deal we do. Especially if it is Prime Minister Chukka Ummuna doing it.......

[shurlock]

I think they both will be tricky.

 

The "countries won't cut their nose off to spite their face" point of view seems to come from a position that everyone, ultimately, will just accept whatever GB wants.

 

It's arguable we have today "cut our nose off" and we now move into multi lateral negotiations where we will be making concessions: that £350m new school and hospital every week might not quite completely actually happen entirely.

 

Nor as Daniel Hannan is furiously reminding the beeb are there any guarantees that net migration will come down.

[hypochondriac]

"A Prime Minister resigned. The £ plummeted. The FTSE 100 lost significant ground. But then the £ rallied past February levels, and the FTSE closed on a weekly high: 2.4% up on last Friday, its best performance in 4 months. President Obama decided we wouldn't be at the 'back of the queue' after all and that our 'special relationship' was still strong. The French President confirmed the Le Touquet agreement would stay in place. The President of the European Commission stated Brexit negations would be 'orderly' and stressed the UK would continue to be a 'close partner' of the EU. A big bank denied reports it would shift 2,000 staff overseas. The CBI, vehemently anti-Brexit during the referendum campaign, stated British business was resilient and would adapt. Several countries outside the EU stated they wished to begin bi-lateral trade talks with the UK immediately. If this was the predicted apocalypse, well, it was a very British one. It was all over by teatime. Not a bad first day of freedom."

[Trader]

"A Prime Minister resigned. The £ plummeted. The FTSE 100 lost significant ground. But then the £ rallied past February levels, and the FTSE closed on a weekly high: 2.4% up on last Friday, its best performance in 4 months. President Obama decided we wouldn't be at the 'back of the queue' after all and that our 'special relationship' was still strong. The French President confirmed the Le Touquet agreement would stay in place. The President of the European Commission stated Brexit negations would be 'orderly' and stressed the UK would continue to be a 'close partner' of the EU. A big bank denied reports it would shift 2,000 staff overseas. The CBI, vehemently anti-Brexit during the referendum campaign, stated British business was resilient and would adapt. Several countries outside the EU stated they wished to begin bi-lateral trade talks with the UK immediately. If this was the predicted apocalypse, well, it was a very British one. It was all over by teatime. Not a bad first day of freedom."

 

Spot on, but it won't stop a lot of people acting like hysterical toddlers.

[Lighthouse]

I think they both will be tricky.

 

The "countries won't cut their nose off to spite their face" point of view seems to come from a position that everyone, ultimately, will just accept whatever GB wants.

 

It's arguable we have today "cut our nose off" and we now move into multi lateral negotiations where we will be making concessions: that £350m new school and hospital every week might not quite completely actually happen entirely.

 

I don't think anyone is under the illusion that we can demand whatever we want but that there is no sensible reason we can't reach similar trade agreements with EU member states to those already in place. Same with immigration.

[CB Fry]

I don't think anyone is under the illusion that we can demand whatever we want but that there is no sensible reason we can't reach similar trade agreements with EU member states to those already in place. Same with immigration.

Pretty much Norway then.

 

Anyway, the effectiveness of the deal will be inversely proportional to how much Farage likes it.

 

This is all so 2018, so apart from a couple of Andrew Neil maulings on the TV to whoever is Prime Minister is, no one is really going to remember or care who said what in 2016. And the elites will get on with running stuff just like forever.

[shurlock]

"A Prime Minister resigned. The £ plummeted. The FTSE 100 lost significant ground. But then the £ rallied past February levels, and the FTSE closed on a weekly high: 2.4% up on last Friday, its best performance in 4 months. President Obama decided we wouldn't be at the 'back of the queue' after all and that our 'special relationship' was still strong. The French President confirmed the Le Touquet agreement would stay in place. The President of the European Commission stated Brexit negations would be 'orderly' and stressed the UK would continue to be a 'close partner' of the EU. A big bank denied reports it would shift 2,000 staff overseas. The CBI, vehemently anti-Brexit during the referendum campaign, stated British business was resilient and would adapt. Several countries outside the EU stated they wished to begin bi-lateral trade talks with the UK immediately. If this was the predicted apocalypse, well, it was a very British one. It was all over by teatime. Not a bad first day of freedom."

 

Bearing in mind you pulled the quote from that most respectable of sources, the David Icke facebook page, you forgot to mention that the predicted conspiracy of lizard Illuminati was also averted. Clown

[shirleysfc]

I'd still be interested to know how many 18-24 year olds actually voted because with a 73/27 ratio that should have easily balanced out the old folks voting 40/60 .

 

After some rough calculations using the voting stats from the exit polls and population stats from 2014, I suggest that a considerable number of the non voters were in the 18-24 age bracket. Maybe if they had been better engaged with the outcome would/could have been different.

[shurlock]

After some rough calculations using the voting stats from the exit polls and population stats from 2014, I suggest that a considerable number of the non voters were in the 18-24 age bracket. Maybe if they had been better engaged with the outcome would/could have been different.

 

What was the 18-24 population in 2014?

[hypochondriac]

Bearing in mind you pulled the quote from that most respectable of sources, the David Icke facebook page, you forgot to mention that the predicted conspiracy of lizard Illuminati was also averted. Clown

That isn't where I got it from. Clown.

[buctootim]

That isn't where I got it from. Clown.

 

You must be pleased you and Icke share the same thoughts though.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

So tonight our ancient nation looks set to distintigrate. The Prime Minister is going. No bugger knows what will happen to our economy ... and Boris Johnson may well be our next leader.

 

#Whatthefookhavewedone

[buctootim]

So tonight our ancient nation looks set to distintigrate. The Prime Minister is going. No bugger knows what will happen to our economy ... and Boris Johnson may well be our next leader.

 

#Whatthefookhavewedone

 

and all so we can take the Norway deal. Aint independence sweet.

[shurlock]

You must be pleased you and Icke share the same thoughts though.

 

[badgerx16]

The Prime Minister is going ... and Boris Johnson may well be our next leader.

 

 

As The Who put it in 1971, "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss".

[hypochondriac]

You must be pleased you and Icke share the same thoughts though.

Odd thing to say. Icke is a nutter but that doesn't mean that every opinion he has is nutty. Most of what was in that post was factual.

[badgerx16]

Aint independence sweet.

 

On the basis that our house voted 100% to remain, 4 votes to 0, my wife has declared UDI.

[shurlock]

Odd thing to say. Icke is a nutter but that doesn't mean that every opinion he has is nutty. Most of what was in that post was factual.

 

If by factual, you mean cherrypicked, disingenuous nonsense, then spot on.

[hypochondriac]

If by factual, you mean cherrypicked, disingenuous nonsense, then spot on.

Sorry to break it to you but the sky hasn't fallen in.

[Wade Garrett]

What the **** are you blathering about. Campaign's over pal. Time to ditch the meaningless soundbites. Four months in you're still probably clueless about what the EU is and isn't. Reminder that the referendum wasnt won on the basis of the evidence and facts.

 

C*nting b*stard.

[Wade Garrett]

"A Prime Minister resigned. The £ plummeted. The FTSE 100 lost significant ground. But then the £ rallied past February levels, and the FTSE closed on a weekly high: 2.4% up on last Friday, its best performance in 4 months. President Obama decided we wouldn't be at the 'back of the queue' after all and that our 'special relationship' was still strong. The French President confirmed the Le Touquet agreement would stay in place. The President of the European Commission stated Brexit negations would be 'orderly' and stressed the UK would continue to be a 'close partner' of the EU. A big bank denied reports it would shift 2,000 staff overseas. The CBI, vehemently anti-Brexit during the referendum campaign, stated British business was resilient and would adapt. Several countries outside the EU stated they wished to begin bi-lateral trade talks with the UK immediately. If this was the predicted apocalypse, well, it was a very British one. It was all over by teatime. Not a bad first day of freedom."

 

Like that.

[Whitey Grandad]

"A Prime Minister resigned. The £ plummeted. The FTSE 100 lost significant ground. But then the £ rallied past February levels, and the FTSE closed on a weekly high: 2.4% up on last Friday, its best performance in 4 months. President Obama decided we wouldn't be at the 'back of the queue' after all and that our 'special relationship' was still strong. The French President confirmed the Le Touquet agreement would stay in place. The President of the European Commission stated Brexit negations would be 'orderly' and stressed the UK would continue to be a 'close partner' of the EU. A big bank denied reports it would shift 2,000 staff overseas. The CBI, vehemently anti-Brexit during the referendum campaign, stated British business was resilient and would adapt. Several countries outside the EU stated they wished to begin bi-lateral trade talks with the UK immediately. If this was the predicted apocalypse, well, it was a very British one. It was all over by teatime. Not a bad first day of freedom."

 

And how many immigrants have been kicked out? How much more money is there today for the NHS? Let's wait a couple of years before we start smugly gloating.

[Lighthouse]

And how many immigrants have been kicked out? How much more money is there today for the NHS? Let's wait a couple of years before we start smugly gloating.

 

I'll stick my neck out no say that nobody currently living and working here from the EU will be kicked out.

[Whitey Grandad]

As any new member must be approved by all member states, this was always going to be the case, but the SNP will try to dismiss it.

 

The situation is not entirely clear apparently. Scotland hasn't seceded from a member state, it's already a part of one. There are no explicit rules to cover it.

[shirleysfc]

What was the 18-24 population in 2014?

 

20-24 was 4,313,200 so a conservative estimate would be 6,000,000.

 

From my 'back of a fag packet' maths, if all age groups had similar % turnouts and followed the same voting patterns as the exit polls then remain should have won. So it stands to reason that most of the non voters were in the younger pro-remain age brackets (assuming I haven't ballsed up the sums or misinterpreted the data).

[saint1977]

So, could this be seen as a massive victory for socialism over capitalism? Labour's John Mann saying its a victory for 'working class over middle class'. Or, according to my Facebook timeline, people are saying its a victory for 'stupid' people over cleverer people.

 

I naively assumed people on all sides would be happy with democracy. It would appear not. Most people only seem happy with democracy when the vote goes their way. Gotta love human nature

 

You make an interesting point on what people were considering when they voted. This is particularly so with so many of the Labour heartlands. Were they voting against perceived elites? Also though, are they expecting more equality as a result of voting Leave but at the same time voting for Gove, Fox and Farage, who are probably less fussed about social and economic equality than Cameron or Osborne, whether it's in those heartlands or not? Or is it a mandate for a shift in economic policy? Hard to know at the moment. Boris and Farage looked like worried men though at the prospect of having to possibly carry through their promises - NHS investment, protecting science spending, investment in UK regions

 

The people have spoken, many of whom haven't voted in the last few general elections. IDS noted this yesterday.

 

Happy with democracy and respect the vote - just hope that people realise there are no guarantees that they will get the type of change they seem to want.

 

Corbyn screwed and a total lame duck. He'd have been better off standing down and fighting for what he believed in.

[stknowle]

"A Prime Minister resigned. The £ plummeted. The FTSE 100 lost significant ground. But then the £ rallied past February levels, and the FTSE closed on a weekly high: 2.4% up on last Friday, its best performance in 4 months. President Obama decided we wouldn't be at the 'back of the queue' after all and that our 'special relationship' was still strong. The French President confirmed the Le Touquet agreement would stay in place. The President of the European Commission stated Brexit negations would be 'orderly' and stressed the UK would continue to be a 'close partner' of the EU. A big bank denied reports it would shift 2,000 staff overseas. The CBI, vehemently anti-Brexit during the referendum campaign, stated British business was resilient and would adapt. Several countries outside the EU stated they wished to begin bi-lateral trade talks with the UK immediately. If this was the predicted apocalypse, well, it was a very British one. It was all over by teatime. Not a bad first day of freedom."

 

Yep, basically we were told leaving would be economic armageddon and we would be pariahs shunned by the rest of Europe forever doomed to a life of destitution. We called bull**** and it's already looking like bull****.

[shurlock]

20-24 was 4,313,200 so a conservative estimate would be 6,000,000.

 

From my 'back of a fag packet' maths, if all age groups had similar % turnouts and followed the same voting patterns as the exit polls then remain should have won. So it stands to reason that most of the non voters were in the younger pro-remain age brackets (assuming I haven't ballsed up the sums or misinterpreted the data).

 

Cheers - the UN only gives data for 15-19 and 20-24, so it requires a bit of massaging. By contrast, 65+ year olds are 11.8m. That suggests the number of 'remain' 18-24 year olds ~4.4 million wouldn't have matched the number of 'out' 65+ year olds ~7.1 milllon irrespectve of turnout. Older voters won it by sheer numbers.

[CB Fry]

Yep, basically we were told leaving would be economic armageddon and we would be pariahs shunned by the rest of Europe forever doomed to a life of destitution. We called bull**** and it's already looking like bull****.

 

I have just enjoyed watching Dan Hannan on Newsnight conceding that free movement of labour will continue in the future almost identically as before (pretty much the Norway model) and Suzanne Evans denying anyone ever said that £350m a week would be spent on the NHS. 24 hours and 45 mins after the polls closed.

 

But well done you on calling bullsh it because it's already looking like bullsh it.

[hutch]

I think most 18-24 year olds voted to leave and now they're just waiting for the 18% fall in house prices that the Chancellor of the Exchequer promised them.

[CB Fry]

I think most 18-24 year olds voted to leave and now they're just waiting for the 18% fall in house prices that the Chancellor of the Exchequer promised them.

Stuart Rose said my wages were going to go up. When does that kick in please? I'm off for two weeks in August so would be in handy to see it in my payslip after next.

[Johnny Bognor]

As predicted there is a major split in the country... not so much between remain or leave but between young and old.

 

 

This division has been caused by the media, breaking out voting by age group. It has caused a big division. Massive in fact.

 

 

The media has a responsibility to unite, not divide, whether that be by race, gender and even age.

 

 

Today of all days, the media have failed the nation. Miserably.

 

 

I think a generational group hug is needed

[hypochondriac]

And how many immigrants have been kicked out? How much more money is there today for the NHS? Let's wait a couple of years before we start smugly gloating.

No one was smugly gloating. Lots of people are saying it's the end of the world though, maybe you should be saving your advice about waiting for them.

[stknowle]

I have just enjoyed watching Dan Hannan on Newsnight conceding that free movement of labour will continue in the future almost identically as before (pretty much the Norway model) and Suzanne Evans denying anyone ever said that £350m a week would be spent on the NHS. 24 hours and 45 mins after the polls closed.

 

But well done you on calling bullsh it because it's already looking like bullsh it.

 

It's all complete bull**** fry.

[shurlock]

Sorry to break it to you but the sky hasn't fallen in.

 

Who said it would less than 24hrs in?

[hypochondriac]

Who said it would less than 24hrs in?

Have you read the reaction on social media, from many remain commentators in the media etc

[Wes Tender]

Millions of people are deeply unhappy with the result and have no way of changing it. It's not like a general election when the result can be changed in a few years. What form of democracy is that?

 

Millions of people were unhappy about the implications for us from the Treaties of Maastricht, Amsterdam, Nice and Lisbon. And its taken all these years for them to be allowed to vote on that, despite successive governments of both political persuasions promising a referendum. Every single Treaty should have been put to the electorate and wasn't. What form of democracy is that?

[Whitey Grandad]

Yep, basically we were told leaving would be economic armageddon and we would be pariahs shunned by the rest of Europe forever doomed to a life of destitution. We called bull**** and it's already looking like bull****.

 

Give it a chance, we haven't actually left the EU yet.

 

It's at this stage that I point out that constitutionally and legally this referendum was only 'advisory' although politically it is extremely difficult for the politicians to ignore. Be prepared for a few months of international wibbling and wobbling and hedging and fudging also involving Scotland and Ireland. Cameron's decision to not resign until October has bought some holding time before actually invoking Article 50 and there will be big upheavals in British politics before that occurs, if it ever does. We could very well end up with some form of 'associate membership' on offer and another referendum or, more likely, a general election based on a call for a new mandate.

[Dig Dig]

Yep, basically we were told leaving would be economic armageddon and we would be pariahs shunned by the rest of Europe forever doomed to a life of destitution. We called bull**** and it's already looking like bull****.

 

we're on day one. The most hilarious part of this whole debacle is the leave mongs rejoicing in the lack of change and impact on day one of the vote, before any of the changes they voted for are actually implemented. You couldn't make it up.