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Summer 2022 Transfer Window


mcbendy

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4 minutes ago, egg said:

My reading of the latest accounts meant that we need revenue from sales to operate. Despite sound that in the past we've taken a huge loan, and our wage bill has been crippling. Hopefully you're correct and we don't have to sell, let's see 🤞

 

1 minute ago, Chez said:

No. I think you are right. We will need to sell. £100m loan/debt will just get larger unless we make profits in the coming years that enable us to pay it down. We only make profits through player sales. Might not be this summer, but if not, it will be next. 

Are you ruling out any owner investment? If so... why?

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10 minutes ago, warwicksaint said:

Self sustaining doesn’t mean we need to bring in every penny for everything we spend. It means we can’t go and spunk away 100 million on players, but still have the capital to spend 30-40 mil without income

I haven't a clue what you are on about. Self-sustaining, means the club wont be given gifts by the owners that allow it to spend more than it brings in. it means the club's income and expenditure needs to balance. Not every month or even every year, but over a period of years. We already have a £80m+ debt that will rise to £100m unless payments are made. You can't just keep adding to that debt by making losses every single year. At some point you will need to make a player sale(s) that tip the balance the other way.

 

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22 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

Chelsea are a strange club. I'm not really sure Ake is up to the level they need, he's a decent squad player for a Top 6 team but no more than that I don't think

Surely Ake is not the Rudiger replacement? That’s like replacing VVD with Bednarek!

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13 minutes ago, warwicksaint said:

If you have no idea how do you know he’s not worth 40 mil?😂

If he's sold, and it's for anything like £40m, feel free to tell me I was wrong. 

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It's not impossible that SR have budgeted for a year of reinforcing without major sales. After all, it's much easier to get top dollar for your players after a season of good performances and positive media coverage than it is selling your crown jewels after surviving a relegation scrap. Solak sounds like he's wealthy enough to be able to bridge our debt repayments for a year (could even do it through a loan himself).

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3 minutes ago, Chez said:

I haven't a clue what you are on about. Self-sustaining, means the club wont be given gifts by the owners that allow it to spend more than it brings in. it means the club's income and expenditure needs to balance. Not every month or even every year, but over a period of years. We already have a £80m+ debt that will rise to £100m unless payments are made. You can't just keep adding to that debt by making losses every single year. At some point you will need to make a player sale(s) that tip the balance the other way.

 

Thanks for explaining it. I'd got bored. 

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1 minute ago, egg said:

If he's sold, and it's for anything like £40m, feel free to tell me I was wrong. 

I'm guessing you were stunned when Crystal Palace got £50m for Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Brighton got £50m for Ben White? That is the transfer market we live in. Walker-Peters is better than both of them, and his value is aided by 3 years left on his contract.

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2 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said:

 

Are you ruling out any owner investment? If so... why?

Yes, because the talk has been to continue in the same way as before...self-sustaining, sell-to-buy, buy cheap, sell high. Absolutely nothing has been mentioned about the owner investing in the club/team that I have seen. 

Question: What do you mean by owner investment mean?  A gift or zero interest loan? The former is unlikely given what has been said to date. If it's a owner loan, then I'd question the reality of that. Don't you think a £100m debt is sizeable enough for a club of our size, considering we are not a million miles from dropping into the championship and financial nightmare that would bring?

 

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Just now, verlaine1979 said:

It's not impossible that SR have budgeted for a year of reinforcing without major sales. After all, it's much easier to get top dollar for your players after a season of good performances and positive media coverage than it is selling your crown jewels after surviving a relegation scrap. Solak sounds like he's wealthy enough to be able to bridge our debt repayments for a year (could even do it through a loan himself).

That's possible. My guess is that their resources mean that they've fronted our purchases without ua needing to sell first, but that we need to balance it up. Essentially, bridging to buy. Whatever has happened, getting in the market early doors is refreshing and means that we're not playing catch-up and/or being held to ransom. 

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Just now, Matthew Le God said:

I'm guessing you were stunned when Crystal Palace got £50m for Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Brighton got £50m for Ben White? That is the transfer market we live in. Walker-Peters is better than both of them, and his value is aided by 3 years left on his contract.

I repeat what I said above - if he's sold for anything like £40m feel free to tell me I'm wrong. 

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Just now, egg said:

That's possible. My guess is that their resources mean that they've fronted our purchases without ua needing to sell first, but that we need to balance it up. Essentially, bridging to buy. Whatever has happened, getting in the market early doors is refreshing and means that we're not playing catch-up and/or being held to ransom. 

I hope the 'recoup' is factored in with the loss of Forster, Long and the onwards movements of (hopefully) Djenepo, Walcott and one of the CBs (Bendarek for half decent money).  Some top earners there, which can make a difference to the overall spend.

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5 minutes ago, egg said:

I repeat what I said above - if he's sold for anything like £40m feel free to tell me I'm wrong. 

1) Were you stunned by Crystal Palace got £50m for Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Brighton got £50m for Ben White? How do you think they managed to get £50m?

2) Do you think Walker-Peters isn't as good as either of them?

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1 minute ago, egg said:

That's possible. My guess is that their resources mean that they've fronted our purchases without ua needing to sell first, but that we need to balance it up. Essentially, bridging to buy. Whatever has happened, getting in the market early doors is refreshing and means that we're not playing catch-up and/or being held to ransom. 

SR may not have put a penny in to bridge things. There was money in the bank to cover player purchases to date. Next summer is probably when we get a better idea of what the owners are doing and how they are financing the club.

I don't have an issue with what is happening, but I'm not going to credit SR the spend either, yet. 

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2 minutes ago, Chez said:

Yes, because the talk has been to continue in the same way as before...self-sustaining, sell-to-buy, buy cheap, sell high. Absolutely nothing has been mentioned about the owner investing in the club/team that I have seen. 

Question: What do you mean by owner investment mean?  A gift or zero interest loan? The former is unlikely given what has been said to date. If it's a owner loan, then I'd question the reality of that. Don't you think a £100m debt is sizeable enough for a club of our size, considering we are not a million miles from dropping into the championship and financial nightmare that would bring?

 

Exactly. People aren't living in the real world. An investment is only an investment if you get your cash back plus a return. These guys have been clear on our model, and that model is not to chuck tens of millions on payers who may prove to be duds it see our their contracts thus giving no return. 

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2 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said:

1) Were you stunned by Crystal Palace got £50m for Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Brighton got £50m for Ben White?

2) Do you think Walker-Peters isn't as good as either of them?

I repeat what I said above - if he's sold for anything like £40m feel free to tell me I'm wrong. 

 

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3 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

I hope the 'recoup' is factored in with the loss of Forster, Long and the onwards movements of (hopefully) Djenepo, Walcott and one of the CBs (Bendarek for half decent money).  Some top earners there, which can make a difference to the overall spend.

absolutely. if we could get that wage bill down from £114m to say £80m, then we could pay the debt down AND spend more on transfers. Pay less wages but still retain the quality is the tough bit.

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2 minutes ago, Chez said:

SR may not have put a penny in to bridge things. There was money in the bank to cover player purchases to date. Next summer is probably when we get a better idea of what the owners are doing and how they are financing the club.

I don't have an issue with what is happening, but I'm not going to credit SR the spend either, yet. 

Yep, too early to say. However it's happened, we've been very active which is great to see 👍

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1 minute ago, Matthew Le God said:

That is not an answer to either question.

You should know buy now that I don't have any time for your nonsense MLG. 

I repeat what I said above - if he's sold for anything like £40m feel free to tell me I'm wrong. 

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KWP is the only player in our squad I would be genuinely gutted to lose.  With 3 years left on his contract he is surely worth every bit of £40m (at least) TO US, and if no club matches our valuation (whatever that may be) he won't be sold. Wan-Bissaka was sold for £50m with relatively little experience a few years ago and I don't think it's a stretch to say KWP is better. Regardless, the suggestion of a £10-15m fee is absolutely laughable, why on earth would we sell him for that? 

I'd like to think he'll give us one more season and then probably go for fairly big bucks next summer assuming he doesn't sign a new contract.

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3 minutes ago, egg said:

You should know buy now that I don't have any time for your nonsense MLG. 

I repeat what I said above - if he's sold for anything like £40m feel free to tell me I'm wrong. 

Pointing out that Crystal Palace got £50m for Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Brighton got £50m for Ben White is not 'nonsense', it is reality and is entirely relevant.

Do you think Walker-Peters isn't as good as either of them? Or worth as much as them with 3 years left on his contract.

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Just now, Matthew Le God said:

Pointing out that Crystal Palace got £50m for Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Brighton got £50m for Ben White is not 'nonsense', it is reality.

Do you think Walker-Peters isn't as good as either of them? Or worth as much as them with 3 years left on his contract.

I repeat what I said above - if he's sold for anything like £40m feel free to tell me I'm wrong. 

I could do this all night but it's boring mate.

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We just sold 30 year old Injury prone Ings with only a one year contract remaining for £30m. I’d be amazed if we sold KWP for anything less than £40m. He’s got three years left, if anyone wants him they’ll need to pay out.

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1 minute ago, Matthew Le God said:

Pointing out that Crystal Palace got £50m for Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Brighton got £50m for Ben White is not 'nonsense', it is reality and is entirely relevant.

Do you think Walker-Peters isn't as good as either of them? Or worth as much as them with 3 years left on his contract.

Maybe your two questions are irrelevant. After all, a player is worth as much as someone is willing to spend.

United needed a right back, so spent £50m on one. Arsenal the same. Is there a buyer willing (or in need) to spend £50m on a right back this summer? 

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23 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said:

 

Are you ruling out any owner investment? If so... why?

Agree with this. If its not a leveraged buy put to take ownership using debt then why wouldnt you have a chunk of cash to invest to build your new asset. Particularly when relegation would wipe off 75% of its value. 


IMO there is definitely an investment of cash even if the longer term goal is sustainability.

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5 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said:

Pointing out that Crystal Palace got £50m for Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Brighton got £50m for Ben White is not 'nonsense', it is reality and is entirely relevant.

Do you think Walker-Peters isn't as good as either of them? Or worth as much as them with 3 years left on his contract.

Justified or not, the media buzz around both Wan-Bissaka and White was higher than we've seen around Walker-Peters. In the same way that Declan Rice has been declared a 100m player for a few years now. It just happens for some players and not for others, and market perceptions matter.

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3 minutes ago, Chez said:

Maybe your two questions are irrelevant. After all, a player is worth as much as someone is willing to spend.

United needed a right back, so spent £50m on one. Arsenal the same. Is there a buyer willing (or in need) to spend £50m on a right back this summer? 

Correct. I'd guess the market for KWP is a small one. City, Chelsea, Newcastle won't be in for him. I can only see a couple of premier league clubs wanting him meaning he'll go for what he'll command in the real world, not what some fans hope he'll go for. 

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Not sure why everyone thinks we have just spent 40million out of our bank with no return.

I am pretty sure we have probably only spent about a quarter of that with the balance due over the coming months / years.

I thought the majority of our transfers were structured this way.

 

 

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1 minute ago, wild-saint said:

Agree with this. If its not a leveraged buy put to take ownership using debt then why wouldnt you have a chunk of cash to invest to build your new asset. Particularly when relegation would wipe off 75% of its value. 


IMO there is definitely an investment of cash even if the longer term goal is sustainability.

if they felt we were overspending on crap players and losing money buying the wrong ones - both true - and corrected those issues, the business could be transformed into better shape financially and on the pitch too.

You don't always have to spend money to make a company run better.

Also, by and large, the value of Prem clubs goes up as time goes buy. You can just sit on a club (as long as it stay in the league) and ten years later its price will have gone up - especially if you bought it cheap and improved its operations.

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4 minutes ago, northam soul said:

Not sure why everyone thinks we have just spent 40million out of our bank with no return.

I am pretty sure we have probably only spent about a quarter of that with the balance due over the coming months / years.

I thought the majority of our transfers were structured this way.

 

 

Yep, usually paid over the duration of the contract so we haven't just been writing cheques for £12m everywhere. There was also so money (17m i think) from last summers trading. So we've spent c£40m inc Aribo, but clearly the new owners are speculation that buy a few YHGTI and in two or three years we'll be selling them for 4 times what they cost.

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11 minutes ago, verlaine1979 said:

Justified or not, the media buzz around both Wan-Bissaka and White was higher than we've seen around Walker-Peters. In the same way that Declan Rice has been declared a 100m player for a few years now. It just happens for some players and not for others, and market perceptions matter.

Best we (the club) start talking about him as £50m player and get that market perception changed.

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8 minutes ago, northam soul said:

Not sure why everyone thinks we have just spent 40million out of our bank with no return.

I am pretty sure we have probably only spent about a quarter of that with the balance due over the coming months / years.

I thought the majority of our transfers were structured this way.

 

 

Correct. Often half now half a year later, and sometimes spread across the contract length. Whatever the timeframe, the spend will need to be balanced with income (sales etc). I don't see a revolution (they said there wouldn't be one), just moving quickly using the cash that was available. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Turkish said:

Yep, usually paid over the duration of the contract so we haven't just been writing cheques for £12m everywhere. There was also so money (17m i think) from last summers trading. So we've spent c£40m inc Aribo, but clearly the new owners are speculation that buy a few YHGTI and in two or three years we'll be selling them for 4 times what they cost.

Do you mean there was £17m outstanding still to be paid to us, or that we made a profit of £17m in player trading? I honestly can't recall which it was (maybe a both?).

Overall we made a huge loss, so any profit from player trading would effectively have been dwarfed/swallowed up by loss, however if there was actual cash to come in (in the future for Ings etc.) then I guess you could effectively spend that the following year. 

The key though will be the Prem/sky money. When does that come into the bank account? If it is June, then I don't understand why we ever had an issue at the start of transfer windows. Why not use that money to buy and then balance things during the window/season - or was it just a case of not wanting to touch that until the player sales had been made (caution).

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10 hours ago, egg said:

 

Hard to disagree with that. £17m* for a proven international player doesn't feel like bad value compared to £14m* for an unproven youth team player. *max price

Nico Williams isn’t nowhere near 17m .. over inflated British player price 

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12 minutes ago, Chez said:

Do you mean there was £17m outstanding still to be paid to us, or that we made a profit of £17m in player trading? I honestly can't recall which it was (maybe a both?).

Overall we made a huge loss, so any profit from player trading would effectively have been dwarfed/swallowed up by loss, however if there was actual cash to come in (in the future for Ings etc.) then I guess you could effectively spend that the following year. 

The key though will be the Prem/sky money. When does that come into the bank account? If it is June, then I don't understand why we ever had an issue at the start of transfer windows. Why not use that money to buy and then balance things during the window/season - or was it just a case of not wanting to touch that until the player sales had been made (caution).

Southampton FC - Transfers 21/22 | Transfermarkt

17m left over from trading last season obviously that wont be sitting around in our bank account but given we are self sustaining that plus the saved wages from Hoedt, Bertrand, Lemina, Vestergaard and Ings must have saved a few quid. So in reality if we sell Bednarek for £15m then we've just about broken even across a wider period. 

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KWP still has potential to realise. He still has 3 years left on his contract. I would wager he will be worth more this time next year and is worth keeping hold of for that reason and also because he’s our 2nd best player, playing in a position where his current competition is seriously injured.

It looks like the City academy RB is coming in on loan but we just cannot afford to sell an asset that still has growth to realise in the same position we have a major injury in.

I see plenty of examples where players who haven’t proven it in the PL yet, like Neco Williams, end up going for £20m from big club academies. The AWB and White examples show KWP is closer to £40m than £20m. Agree he’s only worth what clubs are willing to pay, but £15m reported by Alan Nixon is Matt Targett back up FB pricing. Not England international, one of our best players pricing. I really hope we keep him for another season, when we may need to sell to realise his value.

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1 hour ago, wild-saint said:

Agree with this. If its not a leveraged buy put to take ownership using debt then why wouldnt you have a chunk of cash to invest to build your new asset. Particularly when relegation would wipe off 75% of its value. 


IMO there is definitely an investment of cash even if the longer term goal is sustainability.

Agree with this mostly. I am fairly sure it's not a leveraged buy out (they want to build a multi club model and you don't do that by leveraged buy out) and I 'm sure it was reported at the time of take over as well. I will freely admit I do not know the details or have insider info, but it would not make sense. What SR are doing IMHO is investing for a mid/longer term investment, in that they are willing to invest now to get a return over time, maybe 5 to 10 years and not in one season.

At the time of the purchase it was said that the price was low at £100M as they were also taking on the debt and looking to pay it off immediately. If I remember correctly the structure of the loan meant SR could not repay it immediately (or it had no financial benefit to do so) and are stuck with 7 years repayment. Ok it might mean they pay more interest but also have more investment funds - so speculate to accumulate - how most business work. They will certainly look to get a return on their investment but maybe over a longer period. If SR did not have investment funds they would not be looking buy more clubs.

BTW I think Gao had the same idea but the rug was pulled under his feet by the Chinese government.

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5 minutes ago, Red said:

At the time of the purchase it was said that the price was low at £100M as they were also taking on the debt and looking to pay it off immediately. If I remember correctly the structure of the loan meant SR could not repay it immediately (or it had no financial benefit to do so) and are stuck with 7 years repayment.

Not read anywhere that they intended to pay the debt off immediately. It's been discussed on here, but never read a statement from SR or SFC about it.

My understanding is that loan repayments do not need to start until 5 years after the loan. We know interest is being added, so I think its pretty safe to say that if we wanted to start paying down the loan before year five, we could. There is bound to be some sort of minimum cost to loan, but that won't be 7 years of interest at 8% which is £31.5m on the £78.8m loan. Whether we will is a different matter and will depend on cash flow requirements, available monies and the general business plan.

 

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42 minutes ago, Red said:

Agree with this mostly. I am fairly sure it's not a leveraged buy out (they want to build a multi club model and you don't do that by leveraged buy out) and I 'm sure it was reported at the time of take over as well. I will freely admit I do not know the details or have insider info, but it would not make sense. What SR are doing IMHO is investing for a mid/longer term investment, in that they are willing to invest now to get a return over time, maybe 5 to 10 years and not in one season.

At the time of the purchase it was said that the price was low at £100M as they were also taking on the debt and looking to pay it off immediately. If I remember correctly the structure of the loan meant SR could not repay it immediately (or it had no financial benefit to do so) and are stuck with 7 years repayment. Ok it might mean they pay more interest but also have more investment funds - so speculate to accumulate - how most business work. They will certainly look to get a return on their investment but maybe over a longer period. If SR did not have investment funds they would not be looking buy more clubs.

BTW I think Gao had the same idea but the rug was pulled under his feet by the Chinese government.

I don't think it needs to be a five or ten year plan - one big sale next summer and we've paid this summer's transfer fees. Keep things rolling with investment in the right players and we're sustainable.

Perhaps more interesting question is what happens if we get a really big sale. Buy more expensive youngsters or buy an established player or two?

Edited by Ex Lion Tamer
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5 minutes ago, Ex Lion Tamer said:

I don't think it needs to be a five or ten year plan - one big sale next summer and we've paid this summer's transfer fees. Keep things rolling with investment in the right players and we're sustainable.

Perhaps more interesting question is what happens if we get a really big sale. Buy more expensive youngsters or buy an established player or two?

combined £140m of losses over the last three years and a debt pushing towards £100m. I don't think we will be deviating from this plan after a big sale.

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With regard to the joke price for KWP, could it be that the Tribunal price for Thierry Small has been made known to the clubs and everton are really p*ss off that they are only going to get 1/4 of what they wanted for him. (??)

It was reported at the time that everton considered our offer of £1.5m was unacceptable. I also heard that they are going to lose 2 U16 players this season to Top6 clubs. 

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2 hours ago, wild-saint said:

Agree with this. If its not a leveraged buy put to take ownership using debt then why wouldnt you have a chunk of cash to invest to build your new asset. Particularly when relegation would wipe off 75% of its value. 


IMO there is definitely an investment of cash even if the longer term goal is sustainability.

FYI… as far as I am aware they are comfortable investing to strengthen their product and I believe their hand has had to be dealt early due to the end of last year’s campaign

Ralph is to be given an amount of time, and money, and certain autonomy around his coaching staff and will be assessed up up to around the new international break

Should it be required there are names and funds available for the January window and new management team

Thats the depth of what Ive heard, Im not sure where we are around ‘balancing’ any debt but I get the impression we have strategic funds available and no need for unnecessary sales… surely if we needed to we’d sell JWP ? This effectively ‘clears’ our debt, or atleast a significant chunk

I wouldn’t expect us to start moving like City/Newcastle but we have been told that we will be sustainable however no longer need to sell to buy and that public narrative fits around what Ive heard internally

Southampton are and will remain the ‘major club’ of SRs new project, and relegation puts that project on the back foot, hence why we are seeing significant action here now

As far as the rest of the crap above, Id be gobsmacked if KWP goes for any less than 25m… I’d also expect to see Bednarek/Valery and likely atleast 1 No.10 go to balance the squad/books

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3 hours ago, egg said:

These football game guesses at valuations are ridiculous. He's not a £40m player, not even close.

The fact is that we are a club who need to balance the books, so selling someone is inevitable. He's an easily sold asset. As much as I like him, if they offer something we find acceptable, I could see him going. 

Most of our sell on clauses with the youngsters seem to be set around the £40 million mark. KWP is definitely worth £40 million to us as a consistent, good, versatile full back International  - to anyone else maybe £25 million-odd is his real worth (if not more) but for Nixon to quote £10-£15 million in that article today is media made up wummery bullshit.

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15 minutes ago, Smirking_Saint said:

FYI… as far as I am aware they are comfortable investing to strengthen their product and I believe their hand has had to be dealt early due to the end of last year’s campaign

Ralph is to be given an amount of time, and money, and certain autonomy around his coaching staff and will be assessed up up to around the new international break

Should it be required there are names and funds available for the January window and new management team

Thats the depth of what Ive heard, Im not sure where we are around ‘balancing’ any debt but I get the impression we have strategic funds available and no need for unnecessary sales… surely if we needed to we’d sell JWP ? This effectively ‘clears’ our debt, or atleast a significant chunk

I wouldn’t expect us to start moving like City/Newcastle but we have been told that we will be sustainable however no longer need to sell to buy and that public narrative fits around what Ive heard internally

Southampton are and will remain the ‘major club’ of SRs new project, and relegation puts that project on the back foot, hence why we are seeing significant action here now

As far as the rest of the crap above, Id be gobsmacked if KWP goes for any less than 25m… I’d also expect to see Bednarek/Valery and likely atleast 1 No.10 go to balance the squad/books

Are you suggesting kwp will be sold then?

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3 hours ago, egg said:

The difference is that they've found money for transfers. On the basis that we are self sustaining still (they've said that we are and I'll assume they're honest!) then revenue is needed to balance it up....cos we've bought before we've sold doesn't mean that we don't have to sell after we've bought! 

This new owner has brought us, and how many other clubs and still adding! He brought 4 players with good potential that other clubs pay for one player. How is he skint? If he can't afford 40mil in players, how can he expect to buy more teams, more investment into infrastructure,  more in organization cost, as his conglomerate gets bigger.  To sell kwp for 15 mil or what evert the buyer is willing to pay is poor business, and SR doesn't come across as a poor business man. Assests will be sold,  but at a very good premium for our star players. 

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3 hours ago, egg said:

No idea, I don't do footy manager type guesses.

For those saying KWP won't be sold, who will be to balance the books? JWP?

Gotta be realistic, and accept that 1) we're a club which needs revenue, and 2) if its KWP who gets sold, he's worth what someone will pay for him, not what some fans on a footy forum hope we'll get for him.

The truth is a bitter pill sadly.

I think JWP and maybe KWP will go next summer and we’re effectively spending that money now. 
 

At the aggressive rate we are buying players, young with potential, we shouldn’t need to spend too much next summer. Maybe a player or 2. 

I would expect us to have a little clear out this summer, not to the level of what we’re spending but we’ll probably clear the wage book a little. 

Like you, I’m not sure of his value, but it’s not going to be £40m. I can’t see a club paying over £25m for him. He’s worth more to us than anyone is willing to pay, imo. 

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2 minutes ago, davefizzy14 said:

We are interested in Tanganga on loan, would be a good option as cover at right back. Either Tanganga or Kabore on loan for the season would be decent business.

 

Screenshot_20220708-202633_Sky Sports.jpg

Been linked with him before which may be why we've had a mention. Versatile defender. If he's anything like our last Spurs import...

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