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European qualification 2022

SaintBobby

By SaintBobby,
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SaintBobby

SaintBobby

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Ok, yes I appreciate this is a long shot for Saints, but I’m trying to understand the pathways to qualifying for Europe.

Am I right that the following is the situation:

Top 4 into Champions League - unless by a quirk the CL winner is English and finishes 5th or lower in the league, in which case top 3 into CL along with the CL holders.

The next league position (almost certainly 5th) into the Europa League.

FA cup winners into Europa League, but no slot for the runners up. If the Cup winners have qualified for Europe by other means then their slot goes to the next highest league team (probably the 6th place finishers).

The next best placed league team (probably 7th) into the Europa Conference League.

No qualification via the League Cup anymore.

I can’t figure out any feasible means by which the 8th placed team gets into Europe - but I may have missed something. (Do we get five CL slots if the Europa League winners finish outside the top 4 in the EPL?)

 

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CB Fry

CB Fry

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This is a forum tradition isn't it? Plenty of threads over the years of people convincing themselves that eighth means Europe when it never does.

I think three slots max in the league:

5th - the only Europa slot guaranteed based on  league placing

6th - if a CL team/team in 5th win the FA Cup

7th - if a team above win the league Cup (and this is now Conference not Europa)

That's it. I don't think there is any scenario (team wins the CL but doesn't finish top 4 etc etc) that results in the team in eighth getting into Europe.

Its a bit of a shame because I think clubs like us would love a bash at of Rapid Vienna or Honved in the Conference. Give us a couple of slots UEFA.

 

Edited by CB Fry
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Dark Munster

Dark Munster

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It is possible for 5 English teams to qualify for the CL, for example West Ham win the Europa league and don't finish in the top 4, then they qualify for the CL along with the top 4. Or Man Utd win the CL (ha ha!) and finish 5th. Spain had 5 teams in the CL this season. But if so, it doesn't give an extra Euro spot down the food chain: the total number of European spots stays the same (basically a non-CL spot becomes a CL one).

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SaintBobby

SaintBobby

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2 hours ago, CB Fry said:

This is a forum tradition isn't it? Plenty of threads over the years of people convincing themselves that eighth means Europe when it never does.

I think three slots max in the league:

5th - the only Europa slot guaranteed based on  league placing

6th - if a CL team/team in 5th win the FA Cup

7th - if a team above win the league Cup (and this is now Conference not Europa)

That's it. I don't think there is any scenario (team wins the CL but doesn't finish top 4 etc etc) that results in the team in eighth getting into Europe.

Its a bit of a shame because I think clubs like us would love a bash at of Rapid Vienna or Honved in the Conference. Give us a couple of slots UEFA.

 

Back in the day, there was some way to come 8th and qualify, no? Didn’t we achieve it or am I misremembering?

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The Kraken

The Kraken

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25 minutes ago, SaintBobby said:

Back in the day, there was some way to come 8th and qualify, no? Didn’t we achieve it or am I misremembering?

We finished 8th in 2003 but qualified for Europe by being FA cup runners up.

We finished 8th in 2014, Euro spots only went down to 6th. 2015, 7th got us entry into Europa league quali rounds. 2016, 6th got us into Europa group stages. 2017, 8th got us nothing, Euro spots went down to seventh.

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JRM

JRM

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On 18/02/2022 at 12:48, Turkish said:

Would anyone want to be in the conference league? As a tournament is seems completely pointless but would be a few cracking trips in there 

100% yes let's make it happen Saints, getting closer to that 7th place with the form we are on Norwich , Villa, Newcastle, Watford, Burnley next league games...I make that 18 points and we're right in the mix. 

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The Kraken

The Kraken

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3 minutes ago, JRM said:

100% yes let's make it happen Saints, getting closer to that 7th place with the form we are on Norwich , Villa, Newcastle, Watford, Burnley next league games...I make that 18 points and we're right in the mix. 

🤣 it would need that sort of form as well. We’re only 5 points behind spurs and wolves but they’ve got a couple of games in hand each. But yes, our run in is very encouraging, I think as it’s stands we’ve only got 3 or 4 games against sides currently in the top ten between now and the end of the season.

 

Edited by The Kraken
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TWar

TWar

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On 18/02/2022 at 13:32, TWar said:

Conference league would be excellent, would love to qualify for it. Think we are probably a little too far off at this point this season but it is definitely a feasable goal if we kick on in the next couple of seasons.

Although...

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Dark Munster

Dark Munster

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2 hours ago, JRM said:

100% yes let's make it happen Saints, getting closer to that 7th place with the form we are on Norwich , Villa, Newcastle, Watford, Burnley next league games...I make that 18 points and we're right in the mix. 

18 points from 5 matches would be an incredible return. The PL may investigate though ....

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macca155

macca155

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Almost certainly not going to happen this year. We draw too many games. A 9 point shift on Spurs is required, and they have 2 games in hand. That's ignoring Wolves who are better placed, and frankly a better side.

Obviously the cup is our main route, but that's a tough ask. Other teams will have the same view, but still in it.

I think focus on winning the mid table league. That means overhauling Brighton, Wolves and keeping Leicester at bay.

That would be one hell of an achievement in itself, considering the start we had.

Use that as a platform for next year.

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S-Clarke

S-Clarke

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I think we're getting a bit too ahead of ourselves here! We'd need title winning form as we've got a massive catch-up to get to the likes of Spurs, West Ham and Wolves who will be the teams in and around that. (there are lots of teams with tons of games in hand on us as well, so the league is a little lopsided atm)

Top 10 is a fair target and a good building platform for us, mid-50's points wise would equate to quite a remarkable season in my eyes. I'd be delighted with that.

Edited by S-Clarke
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JRM

JRM

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11 hours ago, Dark Munster said:

18 points from 5 matches would be an incredible return. The PL may investigate though ....

I was getting so carried away writing the list I missed Leeds off the end to complete the 18. 

In reality of course we know that inevitably we'll have a bad performance/ unlucky result / injury etc but the 2nd half of 2015/16 season does give me hope. 

Looking at the table it's going to be hard to finish higher than 9th so we might as well win the FA Cup instead 

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tajjuk

tajjuk

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I think very unlikely, we have to catch up 5 points on Wolves and 7 on Spurs, with both having two games in hand on us. We would need a very impressive end to the season basically hitting top 4 form for the rest of the year. I think top half would be a good season, push on for maximum points we can and then hopefully add 2-3 quality players in the summer and then next year we should be in the mix I reckon for 6-8th. 

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TWar

TWar

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To make Europe we need to close a 5 point gap on Wolves when they have 2 games in hand and also hope that one of the eventualities happen that allow 8th place to qualify. Or overtake wolves and hope one of Spurs, Arsenal, United or West Ham self destructs. Or we could win the FA cup. Seems rather unlikely but we can dream.

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TWar

TWar

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5 minutes ago, CB Fry said:

take us through those eventualities please, clever stats man.

Erm, MLG is probably better placed for such things but I believe it would require 5 CL teams which would happen if a non top 4 team wins either the CL or the europa league. Could be wrong though.

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CB Fry

CB Fry

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1 minute ago, TWar said:

Erm, MLG is probably better placed for such things but I believe it would require 5 CL teams which would happen if a non top 4 team wins either the CL or the europa league. Could be wrong though.

Fair enough, I'll make it easy. 8th doesn't get Europe in any scenario.

If non top 4 team wins the CL it just eats into the CL places for league finishes - eg 4th ends up in the Europa.

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TWar

TWar

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36 minutes ago, CB Fry said:

Fair enough, I'll make it easy. 8th doesn't get Europe in any scenario.

If non top 4 team wins the CL it just eats into the CL places for league finishes - eg 4th ends up in the Europa.

I thought that was changed and now we can have 5 teams qualify for CL, hence 2 for Europa and 8th gets conference (assuming the domestic cups are won by the big boys)

image.thumb.png.d2252f9403e1888635de32d2448962e3.png

Edited by TWar
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SaintBobby

SaintBobby

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Blimey, this is even more complicated than trying to work out NFL play-off qualification and seedings.

I think it's a moot point this season, as there are no English teams left in the Europa League, right?

However, have I understood this correctly....in future seasons, 8th could get you into the Europa Conference League if the following two events both occur:

1. An English team wins the Europa League and/or the Champions League but finishes outside the top 4 - that  leads to 5 English teams in the UCL, two in EL and 1 in EC.

2. The domestic cups are won by teams in the top 7.

This still leaves me the headcahe of what happens if - on top of all that - an English team wins the Europa Conference (which gives Europa League qualification the next season, right?) and finishes 8th in the Premier League - would this lead to 5 CL teams, 3 EL teams and 1 EC team from England the next season? In which case, is there a highly obscure way in which even 9th place might get an EC slot?

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TWar

TWar

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2 minutes ago, SaintBobby said:

Blimey, this is even more complicated than trying to work out NFL play-off qualification and seedings.

I think it's a moot point this season, as there are no English teams left in the Europa League, right?

However, have I understood this correctly....in future seasons, 8th could get you into the Europa Conference League if the following two events both occur:

1. An English team wins the Europa League and/or the Champions League but finishes outside the top 4 - that  leads to 5 English teams in the UCL, two in EL and 1 in EC.

2. The domestic cups are won by teams in the top 7.

This still leaves me the headcahe of what happens if - on top of all that - an English team wins the Europa Conference (which gives Europa League qualification the next season, right?) and finishes 8th in the Premier League - would this lead to 5 CL teams, 3 EL teams and 1 EC team from England the next season? In which case, is there a highly obscure way in which even 9th place might get an EC slot?

It might not be a moot point. If Liverpool win the league Cup, City win the FA Cup and prem, and United win the champions league but miss out on top four then 8th gets you conference league, I think.

As I said though, pretty unlikely.

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SaintBobby

SaintBobby

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2 minutes ago, TWar said:

It might not be a moot point. If Liverpool win the league Cup, City win the FA Cup and prem, and United win the champions league but miss out on top four then 8th gets you conference league, I think.

As I said though, pretty unlikely.

Thanks. That does seem a long shot, but not utterly, insanely unlikely.

The League Cup final is Liverpool v Chelsea, so that is certainly going to go to a club who have qualified for Europe anyway. (unless you think Liverpool or Chelsea could drop out of the top 7!)

Assuming we don't win the FA Cup ourselves, we don't need it to be won by Man City - just by any team in the top 7 (say, Man City or Liverpool or Chelsea or quite possibly Spurs or West Ham). That sounds like heavy odds on to me. (Maybe 1/3 or 1/4 ?)

So, if Man Utd win the Champions League but end up 5th or below, then 8th is almost certainly a Euro qualification slot. With the bookies, they are about 20/1 to win the Champions League and about 1/2 to be 5th or below. (although these aren't really independent variables...if they find good eneough form to win the UCL, it's more likely they are in good enough form to finish top 4, surely?). Add to this a miniscule chance (150/1) that Chelsea win the UCL but somehow drop out of the top 4.

My current conclusion (until I realise I have got something wrong here) is it's about 40/1 or 50/1 that 8th place gets Euro qualification this year. I'm guessing it's about those odds in any given future year too.

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CB Fry

CB Fry

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46 minutes ago, John D said:

There is no permutation where 8th gets you in. If there is 5 in champions League then we lose the conference spot. 

Exactly - if you look at Spain from last year, Villareal finished 7th and would have been in the Conference League this season. 

But they're not because they won the Europa. So they are in the Champions League.

As a result no one from Spain qualified for the Conference League through La Liga. It did not go down to eighth place.

Literally a real life example. No theories/permutations required.

It's a forum tradition to go on about this and at least it's good that we're talking about this not relegation.

 

Edited by CB Fry
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Dark Munster

Dark Munster

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3 hours ago, Chewy said:

Unless the team in 8th wins the cup 😉

Yes, that's the only way an 8th placed team qualifies for Europe!

As I mentioned before, if 5 teams qualify for CL then the PL simply loses a non-CL spot to keep the total number of European places the same.

What would be quite amusing if West Ham were to win Euro League, Man Utd the CL, and both miss out on the top 4 place. Then those 2 would qualify for the CL, but only the top 3 would join them (6 teams in the CL is not allowed). The 4th placed team would be SOL and drop into the Euro League. If the victims were Spurs that would be highly amusing.

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The Cat

The Cat

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Just now, Dark Munster said:

Unlikely but not impossible, they do have some world class players. They certainly have a better chance than Sporting!

Oh yeah, they have some great players but over 2 legs against anyone decent they will get found out. 

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