Season Predictions 2023-24

[EFL Saints]

Hi 

I'm an Ipswich fan who writes a blog about the EFL over on substack. I wrote a piece about some potential transfer targets for Southampton on here a few weeks back; thanks to those who commented on that one. I've written a predictions/preview piece for the Championship this year, split into two parts. 

How do you reckon you’ll do? As with most relegated clubs, things seem a bit up in the air transfer wise but I think even without Lavia and Ward-Prowse there’s enough in the team to challenge the top two. In particular, the full-back options look strong. Rumours of Tella going back to Burnley seem to have quietened down a bit too? I guess there will be one more midfielder coming in too. If the stuff about Flynn Downes has any legs that’s really exciting, he was great for us in L1 and easily stepped up at Swansea.

Happy to hear other opinions though as you'll all keep a closer eye on your club than me. 

If you enjoy, I’d really appreciate any subscriptions to the blog – it’s free! Most of the articles are deep dives into individual clubs rather than pieces like this but I like to mix things up from time to time.

Cheers

 

2023-24 Championship Predictions: 1st-12th (substack.com)

2023-24 Championship Predictions: 13th-24th (substack.com)

[revolution saint]

7 minutes ago, EFL Saints said:

Hi 

I'm an Ipswich fan who writes a blog about the EFL over on substack. I wrote a piece about some potential transfer targets for Southampton on here a few weeks back; thanks to those who commented on that one. I've written a predictions/preview piece for the Championship this year, split into two parts. 

How do you reckon you’ll do? As with most relegated clubs, things seem a bit up in the air transfer wise but I think even without Lavia and Ward-Prowse there’s enough in the team to challenge the top two. In particular, the full-back options look strong. Rumours of Tella going back to Burnley seem to have quietened down a bit too? I guess there will be one more midfielder coming in too. If the stuff about Flynn Downes has any legs that’s really exciting, he was great for us in L1 and easily stepped up at Swansea.

Happy to hear other opinions though as you'll all keep a closer eye on your club than me. 

If you enjoy, I’d really appreciate any subscriptions to the blog – it’s free! Most of the articles are deep dives into individual clubs rather than pieces like this but I like to mix things up from time to time.

Cheers

 

2023-24 Championship Predictions: 1st-12th (substack.com)

2023-24 Championship Predictions: 13th-24th (substack.com)

Thanks, nice read.  I predict you will fall in love with Southampton and our sexy football.  You'll also have a poster of Will Smallbone on your bedroom wall.

[woodsaint1]

Thanks for that, would agree with alot of what you've predicted.

Hard to tell where we'll be by the end of the transfer window, let alone the end of the season. Currently, 3rd seems about right unless we emphatically address GK, CB and FW options by the end of the window - which should push us into the automatic spots.

Not convinced about Leicester, it could be a steep learning curve for Maresca in unfamiliar surroundings with a much changed team. Think you've been harsh on your own prospects - think Ipswich could surprise many and sneak into the playoffs. On the flip side I think you've been overly optimistic with your predictions for Milwall or Hull.

If we finish the window well....

1. Southampton

2. Leeds

3. Leicester

4. Middlesboro

5. Sunderland

6. Ipswich

[EFL Saints]

52 minutes ago, revolution saint said:

Thanks, nice read.  I predict you will fall in love with Southampton and our sexy football.  You'll also have a poster of Will Smallbone on your bedroom wall.

Thanks! I've got the frame ready!

20 minutes ago, woodsaint1 said:

Thanks for that, would agree with alot of what you've predicted.

Hard to tell where we'll be by the end of the transfer window, let alone the end of the season. Currently, 3rd seems about right unless we emphatically address GK, CB and FW options by the end of the window - which should push us into the automatic spots.

Not convinced about Leicester, it could be a steep learning curve for Maresca in unfamiliar surroundings with a much changed team. Think you've been harsh on your own prospects - think Ipswich could surprise many and sneak into the playoffs. On the flip side I think you've been overly optimistic with your predictions for Milwall or Hull.

If we finish the window well....

1. Southampton

2. Leeds

3. Leicester

4. Middlesboro

5. Sunderland

6. Ipswich

Yeah relegated teams are always difficult to judge because there's so much turnover. Bazunu in particular is a funny one, from what I've read his form hasn't picked up in pre-season but stylistically he seems the right sort of keeper to have in a Russell Martin team. 

I'd love to think we can sneak into 6th but I reckon it's a season too early for that, even if there's not a great to deal to separate most of the teams from the lower end of the playoffs downwards. We're very very well drilled but I worry we're a centre-back short as our current options were primarily ball carriers last season and didn't have to do a lot of actual defending because we dominated virtually every game, which won't happen at this level. We've been linked with Auston Trusty (player of the year on loan at Birmingham last year) so if that happens I'll be a bit more confident. Like most teams, we need another striker too. There may have been a bit of second guessing myself though as I'm always conscious of not appearing to be biased. 

[S-Clarke]

Ask me in September, mid-to-end of September. I don't think anyone can truly have any idea until then.

Leeds are an unknown, they could have a last min spurge. Leicester likewise, lost most of their quality players. We've got lots and lots of work to do, totally possible we start the season with 2 or 3 players we won't end August with - so I'll keep my cards close to my chest until a few weeks after the window shuts.

Edited 26 July, 2023 by S-Clarke

[EFL Saints]

11 hours ago, S-Clarke said:

Ask me in September, mid-to-end of September. I don't think anyone can truly have any idea until then.

Leeds are an unknown, they could have a last min spurge. Leicester likewise, lost most of their quality players. We've got lots and lots of work to do, totally possible we start the season with 2 or 3 players we won't end August with - so I'll keep my cards close to my chest until a few weeks after the window shuts.

Relegated teams are always difficult to judge, although that's part of the fun of predicting before the season starts!

[Fan The Flames]

14 hours ago, EFL Saints said:

Hi 

I'm an Ipswich fan who writes a blog about the EFL over on substack. I wrote a piece about some potential transfer targets for Southampton on here a few weeks back; thanks to those who commented on that one. I've written a predictions/preview piece for the Championship this year, split into two parts. 

How do you reckon you’ll do? As with most relegated clubs, things seem a bit up in the air transfer wise but I think even without Lavia and Ward-Prowse there’s enough in the team to challenge the top two. In particular, the full-back options look strong. Rumours of Tella going back to Burnley seem to have quietened down a bit too? I guess there will be one more midfielder coming in too. If the stuff about Flynn Downes has any legs that’s really exciting, he was great for us in L1 and easily stepped up at Swansea.

Happy to hear other opinions though as you'll all keep a closer eye on your club than me. 

If you enjoy, I’d really appreciate any subscriptions to the blog – it’s free! Most of the articles are deep dives into individual clubs rather than pieces like this but I like to mix things up from time to time.

Cheers

 

2023-24 Championship Predictions: 1st-12th (substack.com)

2023-24 Championship Predictions: 13th-24th (substack.com)

I loved the Ipswich and Plymouths tussle at the top of the table last year, Ipswich's figures were immense. Your manager looks very good and I would have like him when we were looking.

[EFL Saints]

15 hours ago, Fan The Flames said:

I loved the Ipswich and Plymouths tussle at the top of the table last year, Ipswich's figures were immense. Your manager looks very good and I would have like him when we were looking.

Yep our run was incredible. Could never have foreseen it happening when I was watching us draw 0-0 at Bristol Rovers in February, a result which took us eight points adrift of the top two.

McKenna getting poached is always a worry. I think the relegated teams are the only ones in the Championship who could turn his head but if we start off well and a Premier League club comes calling, it will be difficult to keep hold of him. 

[AlexLaw76]

Leicester

Sunderland

Leeds

Bristol City

Boro

WBA

Southampton (we miss out on the playoffs, largely because we concede too many goals)

 

 

 

 

Bottom 3

Rotherham

QPR

Cardiff

 

Surprise package 

Plymouth (well, they did win League 1 last season, so maybe not a surprise)

Edited 28 July, 2023 by AlexLaw76

[Convict Colony]

Winners most goals in a championship season

[The Cat]

48 minutes ago, Convict Colony said:

Winners most goals in a championship season

Scored, conceded or both?

[The Cat]

7 hours ago, EFL Saints said:

Yep our run was incredible. Could never have foreseen it happening when I was watching us draw 0-0 at Bristol Rovers in February, a result which took us eight points adrift of the top two.

McKenna getting poached is always a worry. I think the relegated teams are the only ones in the Championship who could turn his head but if we start off well and a Premier League club comes calling, it will be difficult to keep hold of him. 

We had a similar run when we went up from League 1. Was Brighton top and then us and Huddersfield battling for second, seemed like both of us won every week for the last few months of the season. Such an exciting time.

As for this season I see a slow start while the squad is still in transition followed by some spells of great results which are punctuated by frustrating losses. Hard to predict an overall finishing place but we really should be getting playoffs at a minimum, however I'm sure a lot of relegated Prem teams say that and many are wrong!

I'm really looking forward to a new style of play, visiting some different grounds for a change and a more overall competitive league.

Good luck to Ipswich, there's a chap I know in Southampton who travels back there for a fair number of games which is a pretty good effort.

[Charlie Wayman]

What goes up must also come down. So who do you think will be coming down next May?

My monies on Luton, Sheff U & Fulham with Palace just about surviving but it's a toss up between the two London clubs.

Our wannaway players should bear this in mind 'cos we won't be offering them a lifeline if they pick the wrong club now.

Edited 28 July, 2023 by Charlie Wayman

[EFL Saints]

15 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Leicester

Sunderland

Leeds

Bristol City

Boro

WBA

Southampton (we miss out on the playoffs, largely because we concede too many goals)

 

 

 

 

Bottom 3

Rotherham

QPR

Cardiff

 

Surprise package 

Plymouth (well, they did win League 1 last season, so maybe not a surprise)

Yeah not a million miles off from what I've got, except for West Brom and Bristol City. I think Plymouth will be a very hot and cold team. 

13 hours ago, The Cat said:

We had a similar run when we went up from League 1. Was Brighton top and then us and Huddersfield battling for second, seemed like both of us won every week for the last few months of the season. Such an exciting time.

As for this season I see a slow start while the squad is still in transition followed by some spells of great results which are punctuated by frustrating losses. Hard to predict an overall finishing place but we really should be getting playoffs at a minimum, however I'm sure a lot of relegated Prem teams say that and many are wrong!

I'm really looking forward to a new style of play, visiting some different grounds for a change and a more overall competitive league.

Good luck to Ipswich, there's a chap I know in Southampton who travels back there for a fair number of games which is a pretty good effort.

Ah yes vaguely remember that, wasn't it the season where Huddersfield had a crazy unbeaten run? It was ridiculous last year, especially as Wednesday looked home and dry by mid March but a significant chunk of the fanbase were chanting the manager out despite finishing on 96 points. 

I find it hard to see Saints having a poor season. Of all the sections of the table, I'm most confident about the top three, with Leeds being the biggest potential spanner in the works there. 

[saint lard]

I think we will scrape into the playoffs….and win. 
which will be kinda cool. 
rather that than finish second. 

[Rut]

Saints are going to piss this league. Well finish top anyway.

Norwich go up in 2nd.

Millwall to win the play-offs.

Preston (and a couple of others) to get relegated.

[Green]

I fear a similar scenario to our first season back in the Championship after relegation last time in that we are overconfident initially, draw too many games, any star youths get sold before the transfer deadline or in January so I'm going with 10th - 12th. Despite what I have just said I am looking forward to getting back and being optimistic about winning going into games - how long before we top last season's points tally at home?

[Toadhall Saint]

Top half but never bothering the top 6.

[OttawaSaint]

Fear we'll be bottom half. Not enough goals in us, suspect centerbacks, suspect goalkeeping.

Hope I'm spectacularly wrong.

[RobM]

1 hour ago, Toadhall Saint said:

Top half but never bothering the top 6.

This for me too.

Possession heavy football but can’t keep a clean sheet and haven’t yet signed a goal scorer, and the results over preseason are with a number of players who are considered too good for the Championship, so probably won’t be here for long. I’m predicting a season of dominating games in a mostly pointless way.

[John B]

3 hours ago, Toadhall Saint said:

Top half but never bothering the top 6.

I agree as I just cannot see how a collection of players  many of whom are inexperienced and have not played together will become a top Championship team

 

 

[woodsaint1]

2 hours ago, OttawaSaint said:

Fear we'll be bottom half. Not enough goals in us, suspect centerbacks, suspect goalkeeping.

Hope I'm spectacularly wrong.

You usually are 😬

[Convict Colony]

On 28/07/2023 at 07:55, Convict Colony said:

Winners most goals in a championship season

I take this back, I was too optimistic, instead I predict a season of frustration, we go through an entire season with shit strikers who can't score and everyone else being bollocks.

[OttawaSaint]

Edit 

Edited 29 July, 2023 by OttawaSaint

[vectraman]

21 hours ago, Toadhall Saint said:

Top half but never bothering the top 6.

I can see this too. I’m expecting another frustrating season - can’t score goals to put a game to bed whilst on top, and then concede absolute gifts by playing out from the back and getting caught out. We simply don’t have the quality in defence to play this style. 

Teams will know what our aim is - so they’ll press us at goal kicks and we’ll get ourselves in a right mess at the back playing out, and then they’ll play 9 behind the ball knowing we can’t break them down. My concern is RM will keep playing the same way with no plan B. We are not Man City and never will be, so trying to play like them with inferior players (even against inferior teams) is doomed to fail. 

It’s as if Sports Republic demand football played in this style, got a manager who fits the style, but has a team who aren’t equipped for it. Make much more sense to play in a way that suits the players you actually have, rather than a style we aren’t equipped for. 
 

Cue a season that promises much but fails to deliver. 

[hypochondriac]

1 minute ago, vectraman said:

I can see this too. I’m expecting another frustrating season - can’t score goals to put a game to bed whilst on top, and then concede absolute gifts by playing out from the back and getting caught out. We simply don’t have the quality in defence to play this style. 

Teams will know what our aim is - so they’ll press us at goal kicks and we’ll get ourselves in a right mess at the back playing out, and then they’ll play 9 behind the ball knowing we can’t break them down. My concern is RM will keep playing the same way with no plan B. We are not Man City and never will be, so trying to play like them with inferior players (even against inferior teams) is doomed to fail. 

It’s as if Sports Republic demand football played in this style, got a manager who fits the style, but has a team who aren’t equipped for it. Make much more sense to play in a way that suits the players you actually have, rather than a style we aren’t equipped for. 
 

Cue a season that promises much but fails to deliver. 

What style are our players equipped for? Because it certainly wasn't the hoofball of Jones or the off the ball stuff under Selles. 

[vectraman]

2 hours ago, hypochondriac said:

What style are our players equipped for? Because it certainly wasn't the hoofball of Jones or the off the ball stuff under Selles. 

A more defensive, deeper back 4, quick break style I’d suggest. We have pace on the wings and up front, to get behind sides.

Win the ball in midfield, get it forward to the wide men/through ball to a pacy forward.

Adam Armstrong scored his goals for Blackburn played through in that style…

We have never played him like that - probably why he’s looked like a fish up a tree. Play to a players strengths and they may just work better…

 

[Smirking_Saint]

Southampton

Boro

Leeds

Norwich

Leicester (Playoff W)

Sunderland

Thats my prediction 

[EFL Saints]

On 29/07/2023 at 14:32, Green said:

I fear a similar scenario to our first season back in the Championship after relegation last time in that we are overconfident initially, draw too many games, any star youths get sold before the transfer deadline or in January so I'm going with 10th - 12th. Despite what I have just said I am looking forward to getting back and being optimistic about winning going into games - how long before we top last season's points tally at home?

Your first sentence basically describes our first season down in League One in 2019, although there were no star youths to sell! 

Interesting that you're fairly pessimistic. Leicester aside, there aren't many seriously strong sides, I think he strength of the league comes from the number of teams who will have a realistic shot at the playoffs. 

[EFL Saints]

5 hours ago, vectraman said:

I can see this too. I’m expecting another frustrating season - can’t score goals to put a game to bed whilst on top, and then concede absolute gifts by playing out from the back and getting caught out. We simply don’t have the quality in defence to play this style. 

Teams will know what our aim is - so they’ll press us at goal kicks and we’ll get ourselves in a right mess at the back playing out, and then they’ll play 9 behind the ball knowing we can’t break them down. My concern is RM will keep playing the same way with no plan B. We are not Man City and never will be, so trying to play like them with inferior players (even against inferior teams) is doomed to fail. 

It’s as if Sports Republic demand football played in this style, got a manager who fits the style, but has a team who aren’t equipped for it. Make much more sense to play in a way that suits the players you actually have, rather than a style we aren’t equipped for. 
 

Cue a season that promises much but fails to deliver. 

Russell Martin's teams have definitely been style over substance in his managerial career but he's never had a squad with a talent advantage over most of their opponents which is what makes me think he'll have more success than previously. Another ball-playing centre-back is a must though. 

[TheAlehouseBrawlers]

38 minutes ago, EFL Saints said:

Russell Martin's teams have definitely been style over substance in his managerial career but he's never had a squad with a talent advantage over most of their opponents which is what makes me think he'll have more success than previously. Another ball-playing centre-back is a must though. 

You read it well.

I think it really does depend on who we’ll sell and have lined up to come in. If this happens as ‘rumoured’ then I’m confident (but can see it mostly in last few days/hours of window) if little changes then it’s battling for play-offs.

I’m quietly confident those now pulling strings will get it right.

Edited 30 July, 2023 by TheAlehouseBrawlers
fat fingers

[Ralph Fastenbüttl]

The amount of change that needs to occur at the club will likely result in a fairly rough first half of the season, I should imagine.

However, I reckon it'll click in the end and after the winter window I reckon we'll be strong, so it'll come down to how much work we've left ourselves.

Taking a wild stab in the dark, I'll say we miss the playoffs this season but hopefully get our act together for automatic promotion next season.

Leicester to finish top.

[Whitey Grandad]

1 hour ago, Ralph Fastenbüttl said:

The amount of change that needs to occur at the club will likely result in a fairly rough first half of the season, I should imagine.

However, I reckon it'll click in the end and after the winter window I reckon we'll be strong, so it'll come down to how much work we've left ourselves.

Taking a wild stab in the dark, I'll say we miss the playoffs this season but hopefully get our act together for automatic promotion next season.

Leicester to finish top.

"fasten your seatbelts; it's going to be a bumpy ride."

[Osvaldorama]

Impossible to predict really, isn’t it? 
 

If I had to say; I would say between 10-14th. I just don’t think this current squad has anything about it even at championship level. (Especially if we remove JWP/Lavia).   

Maybe I’m being too negative, but we need to bring in some serious quality in through the spine of the team imo. 

[Nolan]

blimey, there's some people with a relegation hangover on here.

5/12 relegated teams have been promoted straight back up in the last 4 seasons. We still have Burnleys highest scoring player from last season on our books, and Alcaraz looks to have "team of the season" potential. Jay Rod scored 2 in the whole of their relegation season, scoring 10 last season in the championship. Burnley only scored 3 in their first 4 games of the season, in fact they sat in 16th after game week 5.

The faster one touch football, looks to be embedding well, so I don't see any reason why we cant do the same.

I'm always half glass full.

Promotion season coming up.

[Saint Garrett]

With the right additions and sales we will be top 2. 

Having Armstrong up top all season, and players who can’t play out from the back with a dodgy keeper we could easily finish bottom half.

Pretty impossible to say right now, but I am confident with what the club is trying to do too to bottom, it will take time to align everything and bring in the right players to play the system.

If I had to make a prediction now, I’d guess we might be bottom half after the first third of the season and finish strongly and get into the playoffs. Then who knows what happens in that lottery! 

[Mr Nimbus]

Top 6 with a decent end of the window.

Top 2 with a very good end to the window.

[goodymatt]

Couple of promotion predictions for us here, champions and playoff success.

[goodymatt]

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/not-the-top-20-podcast/id1112915286?i=1000622880339

Not The Top 20 Podcast has us finishing 2nd. They have correctly predicted the last 4 winners of the championship in a row. They’ve gone with Leeds this time:

1. Leeds

2. Saints

3. Ipswich

4. Leicester

5. Sunderland

6. Middlesbrough 

[Stripey McStripe Shirt]

13 minutes ago, goodymatt said:

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/not-the-top-20-podcast/id1112915286?i=1000622880339

Not The Top 20 Podcast has us finishing 2nd. They have correctly predicted the last 4 winners of the championship in a row. They’ve gone with Leeds this time:

1. Leeds

2. Saints

3. Ipswich

4. Leicester

5. Sunderland

6. Middlesbrough 

How often have they correctly predicted 2nd place though, eh?

[goodymatt]

26 minutes ago, Stripey McStripe Shirt said:

How often have they correctly predicted 2nd place though, eh?

I’m not sure… Hopefully they are right this time, I’d take 2nd this season in a heartbeat!

[Crab Lungs]

I fear a lot of style of substance, lots of goals given away stupidly that will prove our undoing and despite a late rally at the playoffs, a frustrating 10-12th finish. Ugh.

[aintforever]

It’s hard to say how well we will do until the end of the transfer window, you get the impression there will be a busy few days before it closes. If I had to put money on it I would say we will make the play-offs but don’t think we have a settled enough team to challenge at the top. Think Middlesbrough might be a good bet to win the thing, Leicester to get the other spot.

[egg]

6 hours ago, goodymatt said:

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/not-the-top-20-podcast/id1112915286?i=1000622880339

Not The Top 20 Podcast has us finishing 2nd. They have correctly predicted the last 4 winners of the championship in a row. They’ve gone with Leeds this time:

1. Leeds

2. Saints

3. Ipswich

4. Leicester

5. Sunderland

6. Middlesbrough 

I don't get all the people fancying Ipswich. They came up in second place. Decent side, but I can't see them challenging at the top. 

[Jimbo]

Hard to say until we see the squad at the end of the window.

ok the assumption that Bazunu is in goal and we don’t sign a striker, a lot of last seasons problems may persist.

I think top half but missing the playoffs and not really in contention.

 

[Luke SkyWalker-Peters]

The people who are saying we will finish midtable or lower are hilariously pessimistic. We will be competing for the title this season.

The Money

Almost always, the team with the best players wins the league. The best players cost the most money.

Almost always, the richest clubs win the league. 

No one likes to admit it, but the teams that have the highest wage bill in any league almost always win. Man City (with some infractions), PSG, Real/Barca, Celtic etc. It takes massive financial ineptitude, only recently seen by Man Utd and Juventus, to fuck that up. Just as the winners of those leagues are easy to predict, so is the Championship.

The difference in financial resources within a long-time Premier League team and a Chamionship one is vast and increasing every year. This is not the same league when we got promoted from over a decade ago.

We still have our parachute payments and are going to make some large profits on players that don't want to stay. By deadline, through transfers or loans, it would take incredible incompetence rarely seen for us not to have one of the best squads in the league through our spending power alone.

TransferMarkt shouldn't be taken as gospel for specific players, but it is a good indicator of team value.

Last year, Burnley: Highest value squad (almost double the highest non-relegated team). Walked the league.

The year before, Fulham: Highest value squad, won the league.

The year before that, Norwich: Highest value squad, won the league.

etc.

However, the Championship has never had three clubs relegated that dwarf the rest of the league in the manner that Southampton, Leeds and Leicester do. Our squad value is four times that of the highest non-relegated team (Norwich), Leicester three times and Leeds over double. For reference, Man city is under three times the value of Southampton. This quality of teams in the Championship is unprecedented.

Yes, some of these players will certainly go (same for all three relegated teams), but Southampton are in a great position under FFP to re-invest most of that into the squad if they so choose. Leicester and Leeds are not. Leeds are in an especially bad situation with their relegation clauses. Even after removing the 10 players most likely to go (and £170m in value), that squad of 19 players (which would obviously be added to) is still double the value of Norwich.

Almost always, the richest club win the league.

Almost always, the richest club have the highest value team.

The Squad

We have a far, far better squad than Burnley did last year and they walked the league. We have a lot of good Premier League players who were horrendously mismanaged. Some were bought last summer to transition to a possession based system that we are only starting to see this year (Man City players, Aribo, Caleta-Car etc).

We have returning Championship loan players, one of which was named in the league team of the season. We have Stephens back from Bournemouth. We have two quality players, Stu and Livramento, who are hopefully back from injury. We signed the best left-back in the league for nothing.

We have two strikers who both scored 20+ goals when they were in the Championship. Yes Adams and Armstrong struggled in the Premier League, but they are now entering their prime years and the Championship is going to seem even slower to them now having been in the Premier League for a number of seasons.

Some believe we need a better Goalkeeper to finish top half. I still believe that Bazunu's ability to keep possession will limit the amount of goals we concede (and increase the amount we score), justifying his other weaknesses. Seeing other Championship goalkeepers in preseason, he seems about an average shot-stopper at this level (Swansea's let in a hilariously bad howler vs Oxford Utd - worth a watch). He was exceptional in League One and I think with backing and confidence that he will be good at this level. However, if near the end of the window we need a goalkeeper, we have the funds to get one.

"But they're too young?" you cry. Burnley had the 5th youngest team in the league. Currently, we have the 5th youngest team in the league. Ability trumps experience, and by the end of the window we should have a team that is vastly superior in ability to all but a few teams in the league.

Underappreciated the quality of our academy players coming through. We must have one of the best groups of U18 and U17 players in the country, with a number likely to breakout this season.

Our squad is full of players that other Championship clubs might be able to hold onto for a year or two. I don't think people appreciate the gulf in quality between us with our parachute payments and Premier League players to most of the league.

The Prediction

Burnley started the season slowly (16th after 5 games) before improving slightly in September, but only finding their truly dominant form in mid-October and never looking back.

We will be similar while adjusting to Martin's system. It will be a slow start. We will be low in the table in September with our tough fixtures, but eventually, come October, the vastly superior quality of our team (which it is) will start rolling. We should be pushing to win the league. Anything outside the playoffs will be a sackable offence. I do think that Martin showed enough with a limited squad at Swansea (barely any transfers, tiny squad, players weren't replaced etc) that he is capable.

The biggest difficultly with this season is that the quality of all the relegated teams is unprecedented. I'm predicting us to finish 2nd right now, behind Leicester. Partly that is because they are a few moves ahead of us. Leicester and Leeds are both having financial difficulties. If Wilcox and Martin are on the same page, we could very easily finish the window with the best team in the league.

I do feel that the quality of the teams that will likely be relegated from the Premier League is going to be poor this season. I am almost certain that if we aren't promoted this season, we will be next. We haven't had our squads pillaged (or become old) like Norwich, Watford etc, we will be fine (and have excellent academy talents coming through).

Try and enjoy the season you miserable bunch.

[goodymatt]

6 hours ago, Luke SkyWalker-Peters said:

The people who are saying we will finish midtable or lower are hilariously pessimistic. We will be competing for the title this season.

The Money

Almost always, the team with the best players wins the league. The best players cost the most money.

Almost always, the richest clubs win the league. 

No one likes to admit it, but the teams that have the highest wage bill in any league almost always win. Man City (with some infractions), PSG, Real/Barca, Celtic etc. It takes massive financial ineptitude, only recently seen by Man Utd and Juventus, to fuck that up. Just as the winners of those leagues are easy to predict, so is the Championship.

The difference in financial resources within a long-time Premier League team and a Chamionship one is vast and increasing every year. This is not the same league when we got promoted from over a decade ago.

We still have our parachute payments and are going to make some large profits on players that don't want to stay. By deadline, through transfers or loans, it would take incredible incompetence rarely seen for us not to have one of the best squads in the league through our spending power alone.

TransferMarkt shouldn't be taken as gospel for specific players, but it is a good indicator of team value.

Last year, Burnley: Highest value squad (almost double the highest non-relegated team). Walked the league.

The year before, Fulham: Highest value squad, won the league.

The year before that, Norwich: Highest value squad, won the league.

etc.

However, the Championship has never had three clubs relegated that dwarf the rest of the league in the manner that Southampton, Leeds and Leicester do. Our squad value is four times that of the highest non-relegated team (Norwich), Leicester three times and Leeds over double. For reference, Man city is under three times the value of Southampton. This quality of teams in the Championship is unprecedented.

Yes, some of these players will certainly go (same for all three relegated teams), but Southampton are in a great position under FFP to re-invest most of that into the squad if they so choose. Leicester and Leeds are not. Leeds are in an especially bad situation with their relegation clauses. Even after removing the 10 players most likely to go (and £170m in value), that squad of 19 players (which would obviously be added to) is still double the value of Norwich.

Almost always, the richest club win the league.

Almost always, the richest club have the highest value team.

The Squad

We have a far, far better squad than Burnley did last year and they walked the league. We have a lot of good Premier League players who were horrendously mismanaged. Some were bought last summer to transition to a possession based system that we are only starting to see this year (Man City players, Aribo, Caleta-Car etc).

We have returning Championship loan players, one of which was named in the league team of the season. We have Stephens back from Bournemouth. We have two quality players, Stu and Livramento, who are hopefully back from injury. We signed the best left-back in the league for nothing.

We have two strikers who both scored 20+ goals when they were in the Championship. Yes Adams and Armstrong struggled in the Premier League, but they are now entering their prime years and the Championship is going to seem even slower to them now having been in the Premier League for a number of seasons.

Some believe we need a better Goalkeeper to finish top half. I still believe that Bazunu's ability to keep possession will limit the amount of goals we concede (and increase the amount we score), justifying his other weaknesses. Seeing other Championship goalkeepers in preseason, he seems about an average shot-stopper at this level (Swansea's let in a hilariously bad howler vs Oxford Utd - worth a watch). He was exceptional in League One and I think with backing and confidence that he will be good at this level. However, if near the end of the window we need a goalkeeper, we have the funds to get one.

"But they're too young?" you cry. Burnley had the 5th youngest team in the league. Currently, we have the 5th youngest team in the league. Ability trumps experience, and by the end of the window we should have a team that is vastly superior in ability to all but a few teams in the league.

Underappreciated the quality of our academy players coming through. We must have one of the best groups of U18 and U17 players in the country, with a number likely to breakout this season.

Our squad is full of players that other Championship clubs might be able to hold onto for a year or two. I don't think people appreciate the gulf in quality between us with our parachute payments and Premier League players to most of the league.

The Prediction

Burnley started the season slowly (16th after 5 games) before improving slightly in September, but only finding their truly dominant form in mid-October and never looking back.

We will be similar while adjusting to Martin's system. It will be a slow start. We will be low in the table in September with our tough fixtures, but eventually, come October, the vastly superior quality of our team (which it is) will start rolling. We should be pushing to win the league. Anything outside the playoffs will be a sackable offence. I do think that Martin showed enough with a limited squad at Swansea (barely any transfers, tiny squad, players weren't replaced etc) that he is capable.

The biggest difficultly with this season is that the quality of all the relegated teams is unprecedented. I'm predicting us to finish 2nd right now, behind Leicester. Partly that is because they are a few moves ahead of us. Leicester and Leeds are both having financial difficulties. If Wilcox and Martin are on the same page, we could very easily finish the window with the best team in the league.

I do feel that the quality of the teams that will likely be relegated from the Premier League is going to be poor this season. I am almost certain that if we aren't promoted this season, we will be next. We haven't had our squads pillaged (or become old) like Norwich, Watford etc, we will be fine (and have excellent academy talents coming through).

Try and enjoy the season you miserable bunch.

Loving the optimism here. It will all come down to how well we reinvest our sales money to build the best team possible to challenge for promotion. Asset value, we are the biggest but we have had the least movement. The financial size of the three relegated teams makes promotion harder than normal and that could leave the lottery of the playoffs which saw one of the lower budget teams promoted last time.

Burnley were lucky the rest of their relegation cohort were mid table. I doubt we will have that luxury but agree it should be an easier task next season, should we fail. Obviously we are all hoping we do it at the first time of asking!

Most frustrating is teaching this new system to half a team that likely won’t be here and the impact that may have on points gained in the early weeks of this season. This could ultimately undermine us in the end.

[goodymatt]

Look at the size of the relegated wage bills compared with the rest of the league. Coventry did very well last season didn’t they!

[Saint Garrett]

7 minutes ago, goodymatt said:

Look at the size of the relegated wage bills compared with the rest of the league. Coventry did very well last season didn’t they!

Absolutely no idea how they would get that information…but clearly the prem teams will be considerably more than others, 

[badgerx16]

Is Dalek still around ?