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Thread: Premier Football to restart?

  1. #351

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    Quote Originally Posted by benjii View Post
    But if it's materially more risky for one group then it's not OK to just exclude them.

    Anyway, I edited the post because I can't be bothered with the inevitable weird race discussion.
    If the players (black or white) want to play why should they be stopped from earning a living because some nobhead fans don’t want them to to take the risk?

    Restart will only happen if the players agree to it.

  2. #352

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    Quote Originally Posted by aintforever View Post
    If the players (black or white) want to play why should they be stopped from earning a living because some nobhead fans don’t want them to to take the risk?

    Restart will only happen if the players agree to it.
    This isn't about earning a living though, they will all still be paid (handsomely) whether they play or not, so why do they need to take the risk?

    You're correct with the second sentence but I don't think players will agree to it. It's not a risk they need to take, the rate of infection is still too high in this country right now.

  3. #353

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    Quote Originally Posted by aintforever View Post

    The Black thing is fair point, if the stats show the6 are much higher risk then they shouldn’t have to play if they don’t want to, just like no other player should be forced to.

    It's a known fact that European and non European immune systems function differently. Darwinian some might say. Europeans have, on average about 4% Neanderthal DNA that other races don't neccessarily have. Several Lupus (auto-immune reaction) studies have shown that African-Americans (and I suppose African-Europeans) are far more susceptible than Caucasian Americans.
    The Pasteur Institute published a study in the Cell revue explaining all the why's and wherefores about 4 years ago.

  4. #354

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    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew Le God View Post
    Solution...


    If a reported proposal goes ahead to finish the season with a 'No-Tackling Rule' this has to be a bizarre answer. It would certainly be entertaining (for a while).

    Seriously, a no-tackling rule would advantage clubs with the better ball players (probably those nearer the top of the tables) at the expense of weaker teams (lower down?) that depend on tough tacking and blocking..

    I think no solution aiming to complete this season is going to work.

    So I would prefer 2019-2020 to be declared ended, with the Premier league positions frozen as they are. And with NO relegations!
    While the THREE TOP Championship clubs would be promoted to the Premiership, creating a 23 club competition next year.

    Relegations from the Premiership would be for the FOUR BOTTOM clubs yearly for the next THREE YEARS, until back to 20 Premiership clubs. Promotions then to be as usual.
    And so on down the divisions.

    Liverpool could be officially declared 'Champions Elect' or some such title. A new rule to be introduced in case this situation occurs again. (which could happen).

    That has got to be better than the current impasse. So why not?

  5. #355

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    Quote Originally Posted by eelpie View Post
    If a reported proposal goes ahead to finish the season with a 'No-Tackling Rule' this has to be a bizarre answer. It would certainly be entertaining (for a while).

    Seriously, a no-tackling rule would advantage clubs with the better ball players (probably those nearer the top of the tables) at the expense of weaker teams (lower down?) that depend on tough tacking and blocking..

    I think no solution aiming to complete this season is going to work.

    So I would prefer 2019-2020 to be declared ended, with the Premier league positions frozen as they are. And with NO relegations!
    While the THREE TOP Championship clubs would be promoted to the Premiership, creating a 23 club competition next year.

    Relegations from the Premiership would be for the FOUR BOTTOM clubs yearly for the next THREE YEARS, until back to 20 Premiership clubs. Promotions then to be as usual.
    And so on down the divisions.

    Liverpool could be officially declared 'Champions Elect' or some such title. A new rule to be introduced in case this situation occurs again. (which could happen).

    That has got to be better than the current impasse. So why not?
    Ah I'd not noticed that the no tackling rule was for real matches. I thought it was just for training. No tackling ?? Well that's just not football really is it .

  6. #356

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    Quote Originally Posted by Window Cleaner View Post
    Ah I'd not noticed that the no tackling rule was for real matches. I thought it was just for training. No tackling ?? Well that's just not football really is it .
    No. And what would be the point of training without tackling?

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    Quote Originally Posted by eelpie View Post
    No. And what would be the point of training without tackling?
    Going through the motions and boosting public moral apparently. Although about 70% of the said public don't seem to give a toss.
    At the end of the day it's about getting their hands on all of the Sky money they've been contractually promised, because well without it some won't survive.

  8. #358

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    I look forward to James Ward-Prowse free kicks vs socially distanced walls!

  9. #359

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lighthouse View Post
    Oh good, because I don't know where you stand. I was just browsing the Lounge and you described another posters colleague being killed cycling to work as 'horrific'.

    Also, it would appear I understand the virus better than the Premier League, who think disinfecting the pitches is going to make any difference at all.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52635005



    It would seem that the parents of any black footballer are at risk, so how long should they not see them for? Finishing this season will probably take them into September.
    How does commenting on hearing that a cyclist was killed on their first venture on a bike say anything about ‘my stand’?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew Le God View Post
    I look forward to James Ward-Prowse free kicks vs socially distanced walls!
    That made me chuckle. Be a few gaps in the wall there.

  11. #361

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    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew Le God View Post
    I look forward to James Ward-Prowse free kicks vs socially distanced walls!
    Lol - yes, and imagine all the virus germs that ball could have collected......

  12. #362

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    Im not missing the PL one bit and quite happy if it doesnt start up again this season

  13. #363

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    Quote Originally Posted by OldNick View Post
    Im not missing the PL one bit and quite happy if it doesnt start up again this season
    Not surprising really; The football season has become too long anyway. Starts early in August, finishes Mid-May if you're not in the later stages of any European Cup. Then the qualifying rounds for those that are start mid-July.

  14. #364

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    Quote Originally Posted by OldNick View Post
    Im not missing the PL one bit and quite happy if it doesnt start up again this season
    I couldn’t give a flying fck about garden centres. What’s your point?

  15. #365

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    June 12 proposed start date

  16. #366

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    Following this discussion has put me in mind of gladiatorial combat where we are sending out people to risk their lives for our entertainment. Although the new contest rules might include no poking people with sharp objects because you might transfer something.

    What is so hard about just calling it off and starting over there really doesn't seem any alternative unless you lock them all down together and play behind closed doors at some isolated spot. In turns out to be about money, ah I see, poor people screw you, big corporate entities they cant lose out..... Capitalize the gains, socialise the loses....

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    After the Spurs Cup replay on February 5th the guy in the seat on the coach next to me said 'well thats the season over then" - how the hell did he know that then?

  18. Default

    A statistician I was talking to yesterday told me that the risk to the players' health and lives is now probably greater from them driving to a match than playing a match. There were a LOT of riders to this (driving casualties are low at the moment because the roads are pretty empty, for example).

    The point is that we can't ever play a game of football at zero risk, the question is when and whether risks are so low that it's okay to do so. By June 12th, I think we may well have reached this point.

  19. #369

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    Quote Originally Posted by SaintBobby View Post
    A statistician I was talking to yesterday told me that the risk to the players' health and lives is now probably greater from them driving to a match than playing a match. There were a LOT of riders to this (driving casualties are low at the moment because the roads are pretty empty, for example).

    The point is that we can't ever play a game of football at zero risk, the question is when and whether risks are so low that it's okay to do so. By June 12th, I think we may well have reached this point.
    Interesting, there was a German scientific study published two weeks ago that equated the risk of dying from covid the same as any given 9 mile car journey.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SaintBobby View Post
    A statistician I was talking to yesterday told me that the risk to the players' health and lives is now probably greater from them driving to a match than playing a match. There were a LOT of riders to this (driving casualties are low at the moment because the roads are pretty empty, for example).

    The point is that we can't ever play a game of football at zero risk, the question is when and whether risks are so low that it's okay to do so. By June 12th, I think we may well have reached this point.
    There was a telegraph article yesterday that said something similar:

    While there is a general risk from ageing, the public faces a host of other risks in daily life.

    The avoidable mortality rate in Britain, which includes accidents, unintentional injuries and some preventable diseases, is currently 228 people per 100,000, or 0.2 per cent.

    But the risk from coronavirus for the general population does not rise above that until people hit their 50s – so for anyone under that age the disease is less risky than the general underlying chance of death from preventable causes.

    For road accidents, the fatality rate by population hovers around 2.8 deaths per 100,000 people.

    The Government is encouraging more people to cycle, but cyclists are 15 times more likely to be killed on Britain's roads than car drivers.


    Department for Transport figures show that, for every billion miles cycled, there are 1,139 serious injuries and 29 deaths. That compares with just 27 serious injuries and two deaths per billion miles for car drivers.

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    Well although I probably would not die, the lingering effects of getting the disease and potential long term repercussions are not exciting me to run out there and go get it as soon as I can.

  22. #372

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    Quote Originally Posted by Toussaint View Post
    Interesting, there was a German scientific study published two weeks ago that equated the risk of dying from covid the same as any given 9 mile car journey.
    Maybe in Germany. Still depends on virus load, age, health.

    I had it early March, really rough for 5 or 6 weeks. And still really don't feel too good now months later. It's had a big impact on lungs and just ridiculous fatigue and muscle pain.

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    Quote Originally Posted by adriansfc View Post
    Maybe in Germany. Still depends on virus load, age, health.

    I had it early March, really rough for 5 or 6 weeks. And still really don't feel too good now months later. It's had a big impact on lungs and just ridiculous fatigue and muscle pain.
    Wonder how good your football career would be after you get it?

    Also having visited Germany a few times for work, the lady who normally drove to and from the airport was the least safe I have ever felt in a car, including overtaking people on a twisty road in the fog at about 100mph taking on the boy racer who nearly crashed when he overtook her because we had to slow for a lorry. So if the metric is driving 9 miles on a German road I do not want to give COVID-19 a try, i do not fancy my chances.

  24. #374

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mystic Force View Post
    Wonder how good your football career would be after you get it?

    Also having visited Germany a few times for work, the lady who normally drove to and from the airport was the least safe I have ever felt in a car, including overtaking people on a twisty road in the fog at about 100mph taking on the boy racer who nearly crashed when he overtook her because we had to slow for a lorry. So if the metric is driving 9 miles on a German road I do not want to give COVID-19 a try, i do not fancy my chances.
    Think Charlie Austin had it a couple of years ago

  25. #375

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    Quote Originally Posted by Toussaint View Post
    Interesting, there was a German scientific study published two weeks ago that equated the risk of dying from covid the same as any given 9 mile car journey.
    Fatal car accidents are not contagious

  26. #376

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    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew Le God View Post
    Fatal car accidents are not contagious
    Depends who you hit, surely.

  27. #377

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    It's interesting the talk of points per game when I did think there would be more conversations about a more sophisticated modelling/analysis process to account for easy/difficult run-ins, form and so on.

    Daniel Finkelstein in The Times who writes about that kind of thing every week (when football existed) suggested that idea but adding on an additional layer where you run the remainder of the season through the model a million times and then see where that ends up. Just a bit more precise than just one metric.

    With all the opta stats and football nerds about it feels perfectly achievable.

    Probably wont happen as I suppose the Alan Brazils and Paul Mersons of this world would never get their heads round it. I'd imagine our own MLT would probably struggle.

  28. #378

    Default Premier Football to restart?

    I have pretty much tuned out of any analysis for points per game and alternatives but thought could use ppg and then if anyone really close say 2 or 3 points apart on a critical issue ie relegation/promotion then make them play off one game to see who goes above/below. I know might get multiple bunches of teams and some odd ones to adjudicate on. Obviously played In full hazmat suits and bleached grass.

  29. #379

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    PPG is a bit too crude, plus if a team has an easy run in it will obviously have already played it's tougher fixtures so it would be a bad gauge. Statisticians are never right when it comes to football but some sort of PPG but weighted to take into account the opposition and wether it is home or away should be pretty simple to work out and give a better outcome.

  30. #380

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    Quote Originally Posted by CB Fry View Post
    It's interesting the talk of points per game when I did think there would be more conversations about a more sophisticated modelling/analysis process to account for easy/difficult run-ins, form and so on.

    Daniel Finkelstein in The Times who writes about that kind of thing every week (when football existed) suggested that idea but adding on an additional layer where you run the remainder of the season through the model a million times and then see where that ends up. Just a bit more precise than just one metric.

    With all the opta stats and football nerds about it feels perfectly achievable.

    Probably wont happen as I suppose the Alan Brazils and Paul Mersons of this world would never get their heads round it. I'd imagine our own MLT would probably struggle.
    Wonder if it factors in the liklihood of a 'Gerrard slipping on his arse' monent.

  31. Default Premier Football to restart?

    One thing that has always puzzled me is the TV revenue angle.

    Surely it’s within the wisdom of someone to do a deal & ensure clubs won’t pay a penny back in the event of no restart. My understanding is the deal runs until end of ‘22. Say for argument’s sake that there’s 25% of tv games for this season left. Negotiate adding another year on the end of that contract, taking into account the 25% left, plus a goodwill bonus. Ie, give them the ‘23 season for half the price they’re paying for a season on average . Throw in a few other incentives like reducing the number of times they have to show clubs, & maybe some leeway on kick off times ( TV games sat 3pm for example), and I’m sure there’s a deal to be done.

    This season is probably one of the worst for TV companies, with no title excitement at all. More big clubs on, when there is a race, & half price extra season must be appealing to them. Or am I missing something.

    Over the long term clubs will lose out slightly, but that can be worked into budgets. One thing for sure, once the risk of paying money back now is gone, the momentum will go out of returning.


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    Last edited by Lord Duckhunter; 16-05-2020 at 09:58 AM.

  32. #382

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    Should be done on ppg for away matches only. No one gains an advantage for being at home and we finish significantly higher in the league.

    Sorted.

  33. #383

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    Quote Originally Posted by Badger View Post
    Wonder if it factors in the liklihood of a 'Gerrard slipping on his arse' monent.
    I would like to think any algorithms have included "Liverpool choke again" to cover maybe 999,995 of the potential outcomes.

  34. #384

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    Quote Originally Posted by Badger View Post
    Wonder if it factors in the liklihood of a 'Gerrard slipping on his arse' monent.
    This is a crucial point. No amount of prediction could ever include such a possibility, or that of a goalkeeper taking his eye off the ball for a moment. If predicting match outcomes were that easy then people would be making a fortune on the Football Pools, or whatever their equivalent is these days.

  35. #385

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Duckhunter View Post
    One thing that has always puzzled me is the TV revenue angle.

    Surely it’s within the wisdom of someone to do a deal & ensure clubs won’t pay a penny back in the event of no restart. My understanding is the deal runs until end of ‘22. Say for argument’s sake that there’s 25% of tv games for this season left. Negotiate adding another year on the end of that contract, taking into account the 25% left, plus a goodwill bonus. Ie, give them the ‘23 season for half the price they’re paying for a season on average . Throw in a few other incentives like reducing the number of times they have to show clubs, & maybe some leeway on kick off times ( TV games sat 3pm for example), and I’m sure there’s a deal to be done.

    This season is probably one of the worst for TV companies, with no title excitement at all. More big clubs on, when there is a race, & half price extra season must be appealing to them. Or am I missing something.

    Over the long term clubs will lose out slightly, but that can be worked into budgets. One thing for sure, once the risk of paying money back now is gone, the momentum will go out of returning.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
    According to this morning's Telegraph BT Sport and Sky are currently demanding a £350M rebate from the PL even if there is a restart with behind-closed-doors matches

  36. #386

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    Quote Originally Posted by Whitey Grandad View Post
    This is a crucial point. No amount of prediction could ever include such a possibility, or that of a goalkeeper taking his eye off the ball for a moment. If predicting match outcomes were that easy then people would be making a fortune on the Football Pools, or whatever their equivalent is these days.
    It's not a crucial point, it's a pretty facile one in the context of what we are speaking about here.

    The Liverpool vs Chelsea result was a match between top and third placed teams, and resulted in a 2-0 away win for the (slightly) lower placed team. The season finished with Chelsea 2 points behind Liverpool.

    That result is hardly some freak incident that no one could have ever predicted. Gerrard slipping over is an irrelevance in that context.

    There is loads of football modelling data, so perfectly possible to get to a set of repeated season simulations that could resolve a season.

    Being that we are talking about this vs points per game, it's about the least worst option (for any league not planning on playing the games of course)

  37. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by waylander View Post
    According to this morning's Telegraph BT Sport and Sky are currently demanding a £350M rebate from the PL even if there is a restart with behind-closed-doors matches
    That seems a little high, but God knows what sort of penalty clauses are involved in what will be a very complex contract.

    From a financial perspective, I still think the Premier League can end up quids in if they move to have all remaining c 90 matches televised. Worldwide audiences will be huge - especially with Euro 2020 having bitten the dust.

    Before someone says "it's all about money", no it isn't. It's party about money and it's about making a senisble trade off. You don't sacrifice hundreds of millions of pounds to reduce the risk of one person dying from, say, 1% to 0.5%.

    If you think that we should (if we face these sort of numbers), then a whole lot more needs to change beyond just cancelling the rest of the season (24 hour check in times at airports, maximum speed limits of 25mph, strict rationing of alcohol to no more than a pint a day per person...that sort of stuff).

    Overall, Germany seems to have handled the whole crisis far better than we have. A far better healthcare system than the NHS, way fewer deaths, the economy starting to return to normal and footall resumign today. We have a lot to learn from them and probably not much to teach them.
    Last edited by SaintBobby; 16-05-2020 at 12:13 PM.

  38. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Duckhunter View Post
    One thing that has always puzzled me is the TV revenue angle.

    Surely it’s within the wisdom of someone to do a deal & ensure clubs won’t pay a penny back in the event of no restart. My understanding is the deal runs until end of ‘22. Say for argument’s sake that there’s 25% of tv games for this season left. Negotiate adding another year on the end of that contract, taking into account the 25% left, plus a goodwill bonus. Ie, give them the ‘23 season for half the price they’re paying for a season on average . Throw in a few other incentives like reducing the number of times they have to show clubs, & maybe some leeway on kick off times ( TV games sat 3pm for example), and I’m sure there’s a deal to be done.

    This season is probably one of the worst for TV companies, with no title excitement at all. More big clubs on, when there is a race, & half price extra season must be appealing to them. Or am I missing something.

    Over the long term clubs will lose out slightly, but that can be worked into budgets. One thing for sure, once the risk of paying money back now is gone, the momentum will go out of returning.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
    Good shout duckone. Could also simply increase the number of games allowed to be shown over next couple of seasons. Like you say, there must be a deal to be done somehow.

  39. #389

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    Watching Dortmund v Schalke. It's decent enough because Dortmund are a nice side to watch but obviously the atmosphere is akin to a pre-season friendly played in a library.

    Frankly, I really couldn't be arsed to watch the PL played out in empty stadiums.

  40. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by benjii View Post
    Watching Dortmund v Schalke. It's decent enough because Dortmund are a nice side to watch but obviously the atmosphere is akin to a pre-season friendly played in a library.

    Frankly, I really couldn't be arsed to watch the PL played out in empty stadiums.
    Yeah, it just feels like the game is empty. It’s supposed to be a derby game but it feels like there’s nothing at stake.

  41. Default

    I watched Leipzig v Freiberg, which was an adequately good match.

    Agree it's weird without crowd/sound/atmosphere....I think I favour the TV stations finding a way to fake that, although I usually hate TV gimmickry.

  42. #392

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    Our players would barely notice the difference from the normal atmosphere at St Mary's.

    At least they won't have to hear the sound of seats clacking up continuously from the 80th minute onwards.

    *Prepares for abuse*

  43. #393

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    Our players would barely notice the difference from the normal atmosphere at St Mary's.

    At least they won't have to hear the sound of seats clacking up continuously from the 80th minute onwards.

    (Prepares for abuse)

  44. #394

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    Weird double post. Didn't think the first one sent.

  45. #395

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Cat View Post
    Our players would barely notice the difference from the normal atmosphere at St Mary's.

    At least they won't have to hear the sound of seats clacking up continuously from the 80th minute onwards.

    (Prepares for abuse)
    100% agree

  46. #396

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    No fan of Nigel Pearson but he talked a lot of sense yesterday. Too soon to talk about PL football.

  47. #397

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    Quote Originally Posted by Charlie Wayman View Post
    No fan of Nigel Pearson but he talked a lot of sense yesterday. Too soon to talk about PL football.
    Is it too soon to talk about the Bundesliga?

  48. #398

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    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew Le God View Post
    Is it too soon to talk about the Bundesliga?
    No, because Germany managed their response to the virus properly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by benjii View Post
    No, because Germany managed their response to the virus properly.
    Exactly. New Zealand will undoubtedly be playing sport soon, and properly, for the same reason.

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    Quote Originally Posted by benjii View Post
    No, because Germany managed their response to the virus properly.
    That’s why their sport is starting a month earlier.

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