If we survive, will it be our greatest escape?

[SNSUN]

Question - if we stay up would it rank as our greatest ever escape from relegation from the Premier League?

Boy we've had a few in the last 30 years. I'd say that if Selles can keep us up then this would be the greatest of great escapes, eclipsing the Merrington season and probably the Hughes/Swansea survival for me personally, based on how shit we've been all season.

Have there been any great escapes I'm not aware of pre-'90 when I started supporting Saints? (One for our more mature fans!)

Also, where does our Championship season in 2007-08 rank in the grand scheme of things under Pearson?

 

[Saint_clark]

Championship I don't think was a great escape, as far as I remember we were within touching distance the entire season so were never really far enough behind to consider it a great escape. Similar to this season for me - one win could leap us up into 15th place, so unless we fall further behind and THEN come back I don't know if i'd call this a great escape, even with how bad we've been. 

Were we bottom at christmas? Am I right in saying the only time someone has stayed up after being bottom at christmas was WBA the season we went down? 

[SNSUN]

24 minutes ago, Saint_clark said:

Championship I don't think was a great escape, as far as I remember we were within touching distance the entire season so were never really far enough behind to consider it a great escape. Similar to this season for me - one win could leap us up into 15th place, so unless we fall further behind and THEN come back I don't know if i'd call this a great escape, even with how bad we've been. 

Were we bottom at christmas? Am I right in saying the only time someone has stayed up after being bottom at christmas was WBA the season we went down? 

It was Wolves, who along with Palace, Everton and Forest have actually scored fewer goals than us. An article I found states this: 

"Beyond West Brom in 2005, only two other sides have escaped after being bottom at Christmas. Sunderland achieved this n the 2013/14 season as they rallied late on and actually ended up 14th. Leicester City did the same in 2014/15 as they avoided the drop and then won the title in the next season."

I'd quite like to do a Leicester!

[Lord Duckhunter]

The Bally one for me. If memory serves we had a pretty poor Easter and I thought that was it, but we got out of it. The atmosphere was great at West Ham last day, one of my favourite memories. 

[nta786]

I'll say yes as I think no club has ever survived with 3 managers in a season in the PL, I'd say Selles counts as he was given a contract to end of season. 

[SotonianWill]

2 hours ago, SNSUN said:

It was Wolves, who along with Palace, Everton and Forest have actually scored fewer goals than us. An article I found states this: 

"Beyond West Brom in 2005, only two other sides have escaped after being bottom at Christmas. Sunderland achieved this n the 2013/14 season as they rallied late on and actually ended up 14th. Leicester City did the same in 2014/15 as they avoided the drop and then won the title in the next season."

I'd quite like to do a Leicester!

but due to christmas world cup break the stat is made uneven. christmas is normally after around 21 games, at which we were bottom.  

[Whitey Grandad]

36 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

The Bally one for me. If memory serves we had a pretty poor Easter and I thought that was it, but we got out of it. The atmosphere was great at West Ham last day, one of my favourite memories. 

Was that the 3-3 with the pitch invasion and the Ken Monkou own goal?

[Berkshire Saint]

My memory of the 2007/08 season was that we actually spent most of it bumbling around in mid table and that it was only fairly late on (caused by the Gorman/Dodd caretaker period) that we slipped into serious relegation trouble. 

Interestingly just looked at the table from that season and Leicester went down having conceded only 45 goals, the second best defence in the division! We had the second worst after some batterings at Preston, Sheffield Wednesday and Hull. 

[Badger]

I think one of the Dave Jones seasons might have been our greatest escape (97/98 ?).

We had an awful start with some players going through the motions (Carlton Palmer seemed to down tools), and might have been the year of Scott Marshall O.G. 
 

Seem to recall we were in the bottom 3 for nearly the entire season, but over the year brought in Kachloul and then towards the end Pahars. Got out of the bottom 3 on the penultimate weekend, and Charlton dropped into it. (Still remember Curbishey grizzling on MOTD tat it wasn’t fair that we’d been there all season !).

Beat Everton 2-0 at The Dell in the last game to stay up (Pahars scored both).

Was also the season of Dellhurst Park. 

[SW5 SAINT]

6 minutes ago, Badger said:

I think one of the Dave Jones seasons might have been our greatest escape (97/98 ?).

We had an awful start with some players going through the motions (Carlton Palmer seemed to down tools), and might have been the year of Scott Marshall O.G. 
 

Seem to recall we were in the bottom 3 for nearly the entire season, but over the year brought in Kachloul and then towards the end Pahars. Got out of the bottom 3 on the penultimate weekend, and Charlton dropped into it. (Still remember Curbishey grizzling on MOTD tat it wasn’t fair that we’d been there all season !).

Beat Everton 2-0 at The Dell in the last game to stay up (Pahars scored both).

Was also the season of Dellhurst Park. 

I think that was the 98/99 season, I think it was about November before we actually won a match - Coventry I think, and beat Everton on the final day to stay up. Much to the disappointment of my then Pompey work colleagues….

[Saint Matty 76]

It's a bit of a tough one as I don't actually think we categorically are one of the worst three teams in the league, but we've shot ourselves in the foot so much this season that staying up would be a pretty ridiculous achievement now. I think we were the 7th highest odds for relegation when the season started, but have been consistently the favourite for a little while at this point.

The whole Nathan Jones saga was absolutely bizarre, and a team should be not be able to survive after the points we gave up in that run and the overall damage it caused. Let alone with an interim manager in his first ever job. 

The 2-0 win against Everton in '99 was actually my first ever game, so couldn't speak much on that.

[Badger]

1 hour ago, SW5 SAINT said:

I think that was the 98/99 season, I think it was about November before we actually won a match - Coventry I think, and beat Everton on the final day 

Yes, think you’re right. 

[Chris cooper]

10 minutes ago, Badger said:

Yes, think you’re right. 

10,000 saints turned up at Selhurst park against Wimbledon in 1999 .. was like walking through town .. le tiss scored from a corner i think and Marian pahars scored the other. Great night after in London soho .. last train home was class singing the great escape 🎶

[Atlanta Saint]

There have been so many, but this will be huge if we managed it after the number of games we wasted on the Jones Experiment, and the strength of fixtures we wasted with him. I wonder If Selles had been in charge after Ralph left where we would be in the table!

[Ted Bates Statue]

During the recent satirical comparisons between Hasenhuttl and Branfoot while the former was still in post, I delved into the results of the early 90s and saw that in 1991-1992 we ended the season winning 9 out of our last 13 matches, yet finished only ten points clear of the relegation zone, having been shit for most of the season. Perhaps due to the man in charge at the time, it doesn't warrant a mention in the same breath as other great escapes of that decade.

[bangkoksaint]

We’re not staying up. Unfortunately the damage has been done and I don’t think this squad has the stomach for a proper relegation scrap. If we had the likes of MLT, Franny, Marion and The Football Genius to name but a few I would have believed in miracles!

[Turkish]

A thread about the best time we’ve narrowly avoided failure. Sums out the mentality of the club. 

[CB Fry]

On 22/03/2023 at 19:15, Ted Bates Statue said:

During the recent satirical comparisons between Hasenhuttl and Branfoot while the former was still in post, I delved into the results of the early 90s and saw that in 1991-1992 we ended the season winning 9 out of our last 13 matches, yet finished only ten points clear of the relegation zone, having been shit for most of the season. Perhaps due to the man in charge at the time, it doesn't warrant a mention in the same breath as other great escapes of that decade.

We lost three of our last five league matches, including our last match.

So, to be ten points and 4 places clear while still losing the last match is not really a "great escape". It's "team not under threat from relegation in the final weeks doesn’t get relegated".

Edited 25 March, 2023 by CB Fry

[Barsiem]

On 22/03/2023 at 14:59, Badger said:

I think one of the Dave Jones seasons might have been our greatest escape (97/98 ?).

We had an awful start with some players going through the motions (Carlton Palmer seemed to down tools), and might have been the year of Scott Marshall O.G. 
 

Seem to recall we were in the bottom 3 for nearly the entire season, but over the year brought in Kachloul and then towards the end Pahars. Got out of the bottom 3 on the penultimate weekend, and Charlton dropped into it. (Still remember Curbishey grizzling on MOTD tat it wasn’t fair that we’d been there all season !).

Beat Everton 2-0 at The Dell in the last game to stay up (Pahars scored both).

Was also the season of Dellhurst Park. 

This is the correct answer for me.  This season we are 4 points from 12th currently, so hardly a mountain to climb.

[Tom & Gerry]

We,ve had great escapes ever since we've been in the top flight. In our first season up, 1966-7 it looked bleak but  we beat  2nd in the table Forest 2-1 in our penultimate game to secure safety, and then took it out on Villa 6-1in the last game. We still used to lose a lot in those days but at least we could score some goals.

[Mr X]

With what we have been through this season and the colossal mistakes we have made with both managerial appointments and player signings there is no doubt that surviving now would be the greatest of great escapes 

[david in sweden]

1998-99 was dubbed the Great Escape and it really showed.

Saints were never out of the bottom 3 all season but finally turned the tide in the last 11 games, when we 

registered 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats  and ended undefeated in the last 5 matches with a total of 41 points.

 

At a time when transfers weren't restricted to the January window, Saints signed the Latvian international 

Marian Pahars who was available for the last 7 games.   His impact was immediate, coming off the bench to score 

in the 3-3 game v. Blackburn, and his double in the final home game v. Everton (2-0) was enough to secure our Prem. status.

 

Never the tallest player in the squad he possessed a great turn of pace and was soon nicknamed " The Latvian Michael Owen" 

and his later performances showed just how quick and agile he was and gave us some good entertainment.

The following season (99-00) he was top scorer with 13 league goals in 31 games, and 9 goals in (00-01) and 14 goals in (01-02) 

when he was regularly partnered by Kevin Davies and James Beattie as first line strikers. 

 

Sadly he was often badly injured by those defenders who were sharp enough to catch him, but he was fundamental in securing

our survival at a time when we sadly lacked consistency in defence and goalscorers up front.

 

[Wade Garrett]

Yes

[woodsaint1]

Given the amount of mistakes made in the space of a season and our lack of a striker who can score (we had them in previous relegation battles), then I would have to say yes. Can just imagine the pats on the back Rasmus and Semmens will be giving themselves if we stay up

[Micky]

Do people honestly still believe we will stay up after the state this club has been in over the past 2 seasons?  If, by some miracle we did stay up, its going to be by virtue of 3 other teams total ineptitude, rather than anything we do.  Our winnable games are long gone, our form is not about to completely change overnight. 

[qwertyell]

Premier League relegation: Nine teams in danger of dropping to the Championship - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/64985188

73% chance of going down. Red hot favourites - the next worst side only have a 55% chance of relegation.

According to this, anyway. Hard to dispute the bottom line though.

[Ted Bates Statue]

As much as I like to look at percentages, the thing with soothsayer websites like fivethirtyeight is they tell you which way the wind is blowing, and not a lot more. 2017-18 we were dead and buried, but over the space of two matches, suddenly we weren't (but the groundwork was prepared by appointing Mark Hughes some weeks earlier).

We have improved since Selles and we are making slow but steady progress on catching the teams ahead of us. I think we actually have a good chance of catching a few teams napping, and could crawl out of the relegation zone in the next 3-5 games. I expect there will be some low points and we will slip back into the bottom 3 thereafter and end up with an eventual points total in the mid-30s. Whether that's enough to stay up is another matter. I do agree that it is important to win our six-pointers, although I expect us to be topsy-turvy in the way we have been picking up points.

It at least will be interesting, whereas we were really going down like a very damp squib under NJ. I like to think of the analogy of two men being chased by a lion - the survivor only needs to outrun the other guy, not the lion. I remain hopeful we can outrun three other teams come the end of the season.

[John B]

I agree with this on BBC Website we are doomed

 

Premier League relegation: Nine teams in danger of dropping to the Championship - BBC Sport

 

 

[Whitey Grandad]

4 minutes ago, John B said:

I agree with this on BBC Website we are doomed

 

Premier League relegation: Nine teams in danger of dropping to the Championship - BBC Sport

 

 

Most probably, but not certainly.

[John B]

19 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

Most probably, but not certainly.

Exactly but unsurprising with the worst squad of players I think we have had in the PL

 

I know in the early 1990s we had some poor players but we did have MLT to win us games

[Forester]

4 hours ago, John B said:

Exactly but unsurprising with the worst squad of players I think we have had in the PL

 

I know in the early 1990s we had some poor players but we did have MLT to win us games

I think this squad is much better than the one that finished in relegation.  Remember Beattie was sold in January, and effectively replaced by Karama.  Probably the one position that was stronger was Niemmi in goal.  

[CB Fry]

1 hour ago, Forester said:

I think this squad is much better than the one that finished in relegation.  Remember Beattie was sold in January, and effectively replaced by Karama.  Probably the one position that was stronger was Niemmi in goal.  

Er, no. Peter Crouch and Kevin Phillips obviously better than any of our current strikers for a start. Adam Armstrong is basically Ormerod, that squad's back up striker.

Anders flattered to deceive but I have him over Elyounoussi any day. Oakley or Diallo? Not even close.

Preston, Higginbottom and Delap just as shite as we have now.

Current full backs are better, centre backs maybe too and whoop whoop we've got a couple of decent kids who'll be gone and forgotten in no time.

But "much better"? Do me a favour.

Edited 30 March, 2023 by CB Fry

[Lighthouse]

Combined XI, something like….

Niemi

KWP Salisu ABK Perraud

Oakley Lavia JWP

Svensson

Crouch Phillips

[SNSUN]

6 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

Combined XI, something like….

Niemi

KWP Salisu ABK Perraud

Oakley Lavia JWP

Svensson

Crouch Phillips

Our best XI (on paper and of course up for debate) of Bazunu, Livramento, ABK, Salisu, KWP, Lavia, JWP, Alcaraz, Sulemana, Armstrong, Adams would wipe the floor of the 2005 team, and arguably only Niemi and Crouch would find themselves walking into the current team. HOWEVER the problem we've had is either many of our current players have been (in some cases quite badly) injured, or in the case of Charly and Sulemana only been around for 5 minutes, and of course have been mismanaged over the course of the season. Also a few of our squad players aren't great.

I've said it before, and I hate to say it because I don't think it's going to happen, but IF we did stay up then next season we actually have the makings of a very good team.... we would really only need to strengthen a couple more positions and try to improve the squad. Sadly next season I do think we'll be in the Championship and will see that first team dismantled.

[CB Fry]

2 hours ago, SNSUN said:

Our best XI (on paper and of course up for debate) of Bazunu, Livramento, ABK, Salisu, KWP, Lavia, JWP, Alcaraz, Sulemana, Armstrong, Adams would wipe the floor of the 2005 team, and arguably only Niemi and Crouch would find themselves walking into the current team. HOWEVER the problem we've had is either many of our current players have been (in some cases quite badly) injured, or in the case of Charly and Sulemana only been around for 5 minutes, and of course have been mismanaged over the course of the season. Also a few of our squad players aren't great.

I've said it before, and I hate to say it because I don't think it's going to happen, but IF we did stay up then next season we actually have the makings of a very good team.... we would really only need to strengthen a couple more positions and try to improve the squad. Sadly next season I do think we'll be in the Championship and will see that first team dismantled.

This is based on deciding that Sulemana and Alcaraz are confirmed brilliant based on a tiny handful of games.

Stuart Armstrong 2023 ain't no good and would barely "wipe the floor" with McCann 2005.

Livramento literally is on the floor right now. If we're including him as crocked and the folk memory of when Stuart Armstrong was good let's include prime Svennson and Pahars in the 2005 line up as well, they're in the squad and they were good in previous years too. Maybe England standard Graham Le Saux and Redknapp on top. They'd "wipe the floor" with our current team.

Edited 31 March, 2023 by CB Fry

[OttawaSaint]

I wouldn't trust our current team to wipe their own bums properly let alone wipe the floor with another team. 

They'd probably forget the paper, fall over and get shit all over the walls...

Edited 31 March, 2023 by OttawaSaint

[Charlie Wayman]

On 30/03/2023 at 01:10, Micky said:

Do people honestly still believe we will stay up after the state this club has been in over the past 2 seasons?  If, by some miracle we did stay up, its going to be by virtue of 3 other teams total ineptitude, rather than anything we do.  Our winnable games are long gone, our form is not about to completely change overnight. 

Of course not, the game was up long ago. The late flourish flatters to deceive. Nobody wants to be relegated so everyone will be fighting like dogs to stay up. Matches from now on will be pretty scrappy affairs severely limiting flair players and focused very much on deep defence so to give nothing away. Of all the nine teams scrapping for survival it can be argued that Saints are the most ill equipped to deal with the messy reality of the run in. It will be physical Jim but not as we know it.

We'll probably beat the Gunners though if they give us time and space.

[Forester]

On 30/03/2023 at 23:11, CB Fry said:

Er, no. Peter Crouch and Kevin Phillips obviously better than any of our current strikers for a start. Adam Armstrong is basically Ormerod, that squad's back up striker.

Anders flattered to deceive but I have him over Elyounoussi any day. Oakley or Diallo? Not even close.

Preston, Higginbottom and Delap just as shite as we have now.

Current full backs are better, centre backs maybe too and whoop whoop we've got a couple of decent kids who'll be gone and forgotten in no time.

But "much better"? Do me a favour.

Fair point re Crouch and Phillips, albeit the latter had his mind well gone in that second half of the year.  But Oakley was crocked, and JWP, Lavia and Alcatraz are far more effective than Delap and a soon to retire Jamie’s Redknapp.  The entire back line now is stronger, as Le Saux’s legs had gone

[Saint IQ]

On 30/03/2023 at 16:06, John B said:

I agree with this on BBC Website we are doomed

 

Premier League relegation: Nine teams in danger of dropping to the Championship - BBC Sport

 

 

From this it is saying we need 37-38 points to all but guarantee safety. So 4 wins and 3 draws or 5 wins in the next the last 10 games should be enough. Think we will fall just slightly short of those numbers. Bring on the Championship.

[obelisk]

1 hour ago, Saint IQ said:

From this it is saying we need 37-38 points to all but guarantee safety. So 4 wins and 3 draws or 5 wins in the next the last 10 games should be enough. Think we will fall just slightly short of those numbers. Bring on the Championship.

Yep. It's my calculation that 38 points will guarantee safety. Anything less and we'll be in trouble. Last 5 games form has us finishing on 33 points. 😬

So 5 wins (or the equivalent) out of the 10 games remaining would definitely come close to great escape territory.

[Saint_Tony]

yes. Back in the day at the Dell we always seemed to have a fighting spirit, and always had a chance of a result against any team at home, despite regularly only winning 1 or 2 away games every season.

Our current side has been poor for so long, and no team fears coming to St. Marys.Whilst there's been improvement under Selles, it would be a miracle if we can get 4/5 wins out of our remaining games. I'm almost certain we will just fall short though.