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The all-new relegation prices thread (2020/21 edition)


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I really didn't think I'd get to do one of these this year, but thanks to our dismal return from the mini-break and the insatiable appetite from our fans to wet the bed.....here we are! 9/1 is the opening mark if you are that way inclined......

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I had us West Brom and Fulham down for relegation after the start to the season.

Early doors atm but all these teams sit in the bottom three.

Next week at Burnley may provide a clearer indication.

If we were to lose Ings (or to a lesser extent JWP or Bertrand) then we are royally screwed.

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19 hours ago, spyinthesky said:

I had us West Brom and Fulham down for relegation after the start to the season.

Early doors atm but all these teams sit in the bottom three.

Next week at Burnley may provide a clearer indication.

If we were to lose Ings (or to a lesser extent JWP or Bertrand) then we are royally screwed.

My sister's mate went to school with Ings - says he's off to Man City in the next 2 weeks.  I thought it was bobbins but then they need a temp striker and apparently Dings loves Manchester from his Burnley days

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On 21/09/2020 at 16:15, so22saint said:

My sister's mate went to school with Ings - says he's off to Man City in the next 2 weeks.  I thought it was bobbins but then they need a temp striker and apparently Dings loves Manchester from his Burnley days

Why would Ralph be at pains to stress that he's not, then? Seems a bit weird.

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Man City are desperate for a striker. They pay silly money for just about every player they buy. Another £65m today for Ruben Dias, another defender, from Benfica. But they really really really do need a striker. So they can have Danny Ings for, say..... £200m......and for another £50m they can have Carrillo as back up.........and with that £250m they have actually just bought Southampton FC...... OK I know they can't own more than one PL club, but change their owner's name slightly and the PL will never see through it. I mean, they sanctioned Gao didn't they? Now, where did I leave that Jack Daniels?

Edited by Saint Keef
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Three from four for me: Fulham, West Brom, Sheff Utd and Burnley. Brighton could also be dragged into it, but I don't think they will.

West Ham, Newcastle, Palace, Leeds & Villa will be in the next tranche of clubs moving up the table.

Above them will be Saints and Wolves filling the 9th and 10th places and then above them in the top 8 will be the usual top 6 plus Leicester and Everton.

Liverpool and Man City will again be the top two.

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I think Brighton look pretty good, albeit form is temporary.  Burnley sound like they're a mess, I could see SD walking and them dropping like a stone.  I would say them and Fulham and West Brom is a safe bet, expect Wilder will graft SU out of trouble.

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I predict top 2 will be City and Liverpool

CL places will be between Chelsea,  Arsenal and Spurs with Leicester, Man Utd and Everton scrapping for Europa spot

Wolves, West Ham, Newcastle, Palace, Leeds, Villa and Saints to all finish mid table.

Bottom five between Brighton, Sheff Utd, Burnley, Fulham and West Brom with the latter 3 all going down

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

I'd say it's too early to call, thought West ham would be in the relegation mix after first couple of games, now they're a euro contender. Just need to put a few results together and league changes quickly.  

Title odds will be interesting, looks like a two horse race between Everton and Aston Villa as things stand. 

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7 minutes ago, JRM said:

I'd say it's too early to call, thought West ham would be in the relegation mix after first couple of games, now they're a euro contender. Just need to put a few results together and league changes quickly.  

Title odds will be interesting, looks like a two horse race between Everton and Aston Villa as things stand. 

Why would you draw any conclusions after 5 games? 

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It’s early days, but that bottom four do look pretty poor. As a whole - disregarding the games they’ve played against each other - their combined record over 15 matches is W 0 D 1 L 14. 
 

It’s fair to say that 0.067 points per game against the top 16 is probably relegation form.

Long way to go, but I don’t remember Saints being quite this bad in the early matches in our first year back up.

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2 hours ago, Matthew Le God said:

I'm basing it on player quality, not just form in a small sample of games.

If not them as the bottom 4... then who else?

Well, if you derive implied probabilities from bookies’ odds then you have Newcastle at 3/1, Brighton at 4/1 and Palace at 5/1 to go down. If my maths are correct, that equates to a 50.2% chance that at least one of these three will be relegated....and therefore a higher chance that one of these three will end up in the bottom four.

 

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11 hours ago, SaintBobby said:

Well, if you derive implied probabilities from bookies’ odds then you have Newcastle at 3/1, Brighton at 4/1 and Palace at 5/1 to go down. If my maths are correct, that equates to a 50.2% chance that at least one of these three will be relegated....and therefore a higher chance that one of these three will end up in the bottom four.

 

It's exactly 50% but your maths is sound.

Incidentally how do you ignore someone?

Edited by TWar
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19 hours ago, hypochondriac said:

Why would you draw any conclusions after 5 games? 

Exactly. Listening to Talksport earlier and they were discussing Villa winning the title. If that happens, I'm a baboon's butt. Even Cundy last night was listing half the Premier League that could win it. (Saints were not one of them). Far too many people jumping the gun this early into the season.

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4 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

Turkish, MLG, you’ve got your own special thread to play in. If that’s not enough then find another forum.

So when I said a asking a mod would be more of a sensible option than Jesus to sort out a forum posting spat I was right. Thank you for proving me right lighthouse 

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Might be that the top of the table is mad and close this season and the relegation scrap involving way fewer teams. 
 

I agree it’s hard to see Villa winning the league, but the 3/1 on it being any team other than Man City or Liverpool is pretty tempting.

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On 06/10/2020 at 16:31, John D said:

I predict top 2 will be City and Liverpool

CL places will be between Chelsea,  Arsenal and Spurs with Leicester, Man Utd and Everton scrapping for Europa spot

Wolves, West Ham, Newcastle, Palace, Leeds, Villa and Saints to all finish mid table.

Bottom five between Brighton, Sheff Utd, Burnley, Fulham and West Brom with the latter 3 all going down

 

Very much how I see it too.

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On 24/10/2020 at 11:41, SaintBobby said:

Remind me to ask you for your lottery numbers - and to avoid them! 🙂

38 games in a season mate. Think Leeds will run out of puff around Xmas and drop. Might be wrong..$20 isn't much if I am! 😄

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The bottom four are still looking hopeless against the top 16.

Played 25....Won 0 Drawn 3 Lost 22...For 16 Against 54

Points per game = 0.12

In the unikely event that this dismal form continues all season, the bottom four will each pick up 3 or 4 points on average against the top 16 over the whole season.

 

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On 07/11/2020 at 07:27, Saint_clark said:

If you were going to lay heavy on it, £100 or £200 say, now would be the time to do it. A drop in form and us falling down the table again would see the cashout shoot up. 

Or you could not burn £200.

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