Relegation prices thread 2021/22.

[tisspahars]

1 hour ago, macca155 said:

Price relates to money laid not our chances. Just bookies making a book. Soon go down if people take that price. Bookies like an edge.

I use the Betfair odds for this thread so it is the market price not one made by a bookmaker.

[tisspahars]

Interestingly (to me at least) the reaction to our two home draws has seen us lengthen from 10/1 to 13/1, a price that, if we lose by as many as this forum assures me we will at Arsenal, may look rather big come Saturday evening.

[Saint_lambden]

8/1 with Betway now. Leeds bizarrely are 5/1 and look to have far more quality than us and also coming out of their injury crisis whilst we’re now in ours. 

[TWar]

6 minutes ago, Saint_lambden said:

8/1 with Betway now. Leeds bizarrely are 5/1 and look to have far more quality than us and also coming out of their injury crisis whilst we’re now in ours. 

It's because the two teams they haven't played are City Arsenal whereas we have Palace and Brentford and we are on the same points as them.

[woodsaint1]

39 minutes ago, Saint_lambden said:

8/1 with Betway now. Leeds bizarrely are 5/1 and look to have far more quality than us and also coming out of their injury crisis whilst we’re now in ours. 

Not that bizarre as I'm not sure they've far more quality than us. Outside of Phillips, Raphinha and Bamford they are very, very average. They're also suffering the second season syndrome for newly promoted clubs when their tactics/style of play is better understood by other teams

[AlexLaw76]

7 hours ago, woodsaint1 said:

Not that bizarre as I'm not sure they've far more quality than us. Outside of Phillips, Raphinha and Bamford they are very, very average. They're also suffering the second season syndrome for newly promoted clubs when their tactics/style of play is better understood by other teams

But they do have those 3 players. Who waltz into our side.. 

Also, unsure if they lose anyone to the AFCON?

Edited 12 December, 2021 by AlexLaw76

[Saint_Tony]

6 hours ago, woodsaint1 said:

Not that bizarre as I'm not sure they've far more quality than us. Outside of Phillips, Raphinha and Bamford they are very, very average. They're also suffering the second season syndrome for newly promoted clubs when their tactics/style of play is better understood by other teams

would love to know the 3 players you would take out of our squad to make us 'very, very average' 

[redkeith]

1 hour ago, Saint_Tony said:

would love to know the 3 players you would take out of our squad to make us 'very, very average' 

Salisu, Romeu and Stuart Armstrong 

[tisspahars]

On 09/12/2021 at 09:25, tisspahars said:

Interestingly (to me at least) the reaction to our two home draws has seen us lengthen from 10/1 to 13/1, a price that, if we lose by as many as this forum assures me we will at Arsenal, may look rather big come Saturday evening.

13/1 was indeed big - now 9/1 after defeat at Arsenal, a price the "we are definitely down" brigade, who, embarrassingly have started to reappear, will doubtless find unfathomable.

[JRM]

1 hour ago, tisspahars said:

13/1 was indeed big - now 9/1 after defeat at Arsenal, a price the "we are definitely down" brigade, who, embarrassingly have started to reappear, will doubtless find unfathomable.

I don't think I've seen anyone say we're definitely going down? 

My opinion is we'll definitely be in amongst the relegation battle , basing that on form over the last year (did they say we've LOST 15 of the last 19 league away game) plus we just don't look like scoring many goals, certainly not enough to win games. 

Only Norwich have scored fewer goals than us, and 2 of them were against us! 

[TWar]

Leeds senior squad availability. Probably won't go down but 4/1 could be a decent snip. We are 15/2 btw, 6th most likely. If we beat Brentford on the weekend (assuming it happens) then we'll probably be less likely than them.

[CB Fry]

Well, today's point puts us on 21 points halfway through the season.

So the good news is we don't even need to be as "good" as that in the second half of the season to stay up.

Staying up is about doing just enough and I think we will do just enough.

[whelk]

35 minutes ago, CB Fry said:

Well, today's point puts us on 21 points halfway through the season.

So the good news is we don't even need to be as "good" as that in the second half of the season to stay up.

Staying up is about doing just enough and I think we will do just enough.

And we have played City, Liverpool and Chelsea away already

[Lighthouse]

1 hour ago, CB Fry said:

Well, today's point puts us on 21 points halfway through the season.

So the good news is we don't even need to be as "good" as that in the second half of the season to stay up.

Staying up is about doing just enough and I think we will do just enough.

4 wins and 4 draws from 19 games should do it. 37 points has been enough to stay up most seasons since we came up. Home games against Newcastle, Watford, Norwich, Palace, Everton and two games against Brentford to come.

[SaintBobby]

A bit like last season, the bottom three could end up with a derisory points total.

I think it could be as few as 28 points to stay up....think it was that last season?

 

[benjii]

3 hours ago, SaintBobby said:

A bit like last season, the bottom three could end up with a derisory points total.

I think it could be as few as 28 points to stay up....think it was that last season?

 

Warning: a lot of this post is stating the bleeding obvious, but the relegation battle is starting to look quite straightforward now.

 

Fulham finished 18th with 28 points so, yes, Burnley in 17th could have stayed up with 28 points and a better GD than Fulham. As it happened, they got 39 points so were very comfortable.

Looking at the current table, you wouldn't bet on Norwich or Burnley breaking 30 points. They've only won 3 matches between them out of 36 played and I don't see either having a dramatic resurgence. I know Dyche has been here before but I don't think they've ever been this bad at the half way point. 

Watford also look in trouble but will probably have a new manager soon. If they get someone good in and even manage to bring in a good player or two then they've got a chance but they would need to average nearly 1.5 points per match to get to 40, which seems unlikely so at best you would put them on around 35 points, and that would be fairly optimistic. 

All the other clubs, bar Newcastle, are on course for 38 or more points but it's likely one or more will perform worse in the second half of the season. Everton, perhaps? 😀 Leeds should be OK once Bamford is back.

So, really, I think it's Norwich, Burnley and whoever does worse over the remainder of the season between Newcastle and Watford that will go down. It could well be that, like last season, this is settled well before the end of the season, if Newcastle put a run together. Although I don't see Newcastle suddenly becoming a good team on the back of the January window you have to assume they will improve at least a bit. If both of those improve dramatically then someone else could be dragged in. 

Edited 3 January, 2022 by benjii

[Jeremy Corbyn]

Hard to see beyond Norwich, Burnley and Watford unless Newcastle have an absolute mare in the window.

[Sheaf Saint]

1 hour ago, Jeremy Corbyn said:

Hard to see beyond Norwich, Burnley and Watford unless Newcastle have an absolute mare in the window.

Eddie Howe spunked a fortune on players at Bournemouth and still couldn't keep them up. True, Newcastle will be looking to sign players of a higher calibre than Bournemouth could ever afford, but realistically how many of their targets are actually likely to sign in January? More likely they will get a few loans in til the end of the season, and given that squad needs a complete overhaul from front to back it's unlikely a few loans are suddenly going to make them unbeatable.

[Jeremy Corbyn]

2 minutes ago, Sheaf Saint said:

Eddie Howe spunked a fortune on players at Bournemouth and still couldn't keep them up. True, Newcastle will be looking to sign players of a higher calibre than Bournemouth could ever afford, but realistically how many of their targets are actually likely to sign in January? More likely they will get a few loans in til the end of the season, and given that squad needs a complete overhaul from front to back it's unlikely a few loans are suddenly going to make them unbeatable.

True, but they wouldn't have to improve much to get out of their current situation unless one of Watford or Burnley suddenly spring to life.  That being said, Newcastle vs Watford on the 15th will be an interesting one.

[badgerx16]

1 hour ago, Jeremy Corbyn said:

True, but they wouldn't have to improve much to get out of their current situation unless one of Watford or Burnley suddenly spring to life.  That being said, Newcastle vs Watford on the 15th will be an interesting one.

I am going to spend the rest of the season supporting whoever is playing Newcastle.

[SaintBobby]

On 28/12/2021 at 21:34, CB Fry said:

Well, today's point puts us on 21 points halfway through the season.

So the good news is we don't even need to be as "good" as that in the second half of the season to stay up.

Staying up is about doing just enough and I think we will do just enough.

I think we’ll stay up with about 15 points to spare. The truth this season and last is that mediocrity is enough to stay up with comfort - assuming you don’t have a run of truly abysmal luck/results.

[Green]

Relegated teams from the past few seasons (3rd from bottom):

2020/21: Fulham 28

2019/20: Bournemouth 34

2018/19: Cardiff 34

2017/18: Swansea 33

2016/17: Hull 34

2015/16: Newcastle 37

2014/15: Hull 35

2013/14: Norwich 33

2012/13: Wigan 36

 

[Dark Munster]

5 hours ago, Green said:

Relegated teams from the past few seasons (3rd from bottom):

2020/21: Fulham 28

2019/20: Bournemouth 34

2018/19: Cardiff 34

2017/18: Swansea 33

2016/17: Hull 34

2015/16: Newcastle 37

2014/15: Hull 35

2013/14: Norwich 33

2012/13: Wigan 36

 

2002/03: West Ham 42  

Always good for a laugh.  😀

[tajjuk]

If you say 38-39 points to probably stay up then Newcastle need 27-28 points from 19 games. 

Which looking at the current table, 27/28 points from 19 games is 8th/9th form. Needs quite a dramatic jump in form for Newcastle to hit those levels (unless of course the 4th team down there is also terrible I suppose). 

[badgerx16]

22 minutes ago, tajjuk said:

If you say 38-39 points to probably stay up then Newcastle need 27-28 points from 19 games. 

Which looking at the current table, 27/28 points from 19 games is 8th/9th form. Needs quite a dramatic jump in form for Newcastle to hit those levels (unless of course the 4th team down there is also terrible I suppose). 

It depends on their next three matches, currently slated as Watford (h), Leeds (a), and Everton (h), which will be played before significant reinforcements can be bedded in. ( It's a shame about the postponements ). If they get less than 4 points from those three then the equation gets harder, but I think that 35 points will keep teams up this season. 

By the end of January it is highly likely that the relegation fight will be down to 3 from 4.

Edited 4 January, 2022 by badgerx16

[Dusic]

Burnley always seem to get into a difficult position and then have a run where they win 3 from 4 so Im not totally writing them off just yet.

Newcastle will improve as they will sign good players so I think they will stay up comfortably enough in the end.

One of Leeds, Everton, Saints, Palace, Villa, Brentford coukd possibly be dragged into it but would need a second half of the season like ours last year plus one of the current bottom four to have a great run, so seems unlikely.

 

[Matthew Le God]

2 hours ago, tajjuk said:

If you say 38-39 points to probably stay up then Newcastle need 27-28 points from 19 games. 

Which looking at the current table, 27/28 points from 19 games is 8th/9th form. Needs quite a dramatic jump in form for Newcastle to hit those levels (unless of course the 4th team down there is also terrible I suppose). 

Newcastle don't need a big improvement, they just need to out do Watford, Burnley and Norwich. That won't require Newcastle needing 27-28 more points as none of those sides are likely to break the 30 point mark in total for the entire season.

[tisspahars]

A double update......Firstly, the 4 points from the last two games saw us all the way out to 16/1 and then yesterday's news shunted us out still further to 20/1.

[tisspahars]

33/1 after the Brentford win - this year's thread now on life support.....

[Saint Garrett]

We can turn it into champions league thread. 

[cloggy saint]

Or we could revitalise the classic 'Elephant in the room' thread?

[Roo1976]

2 hours ago, Saint Garrett said:

We can turn it into champions league thread. 

thats positive..................☺️

[whelk]

Does anyone have the Europa League schedule for next season?  Need to get my leave requests in early and plan around our Europe trips

Edited 13 January, 2022 by whelk

[Matthew Le God]

I don't think any of Norwich, Watford or Burnley will break the 30 point mark, so two more wins from the remaining 18 games and we will be safe.

[Jeremy Corbyn]

1 hour ago, Matthew Le God said:

I don't think any of Norwich, Watford or Burnley will break the 30 point mark, so two more wins from the remaining 18 games and we will be safe.

I agree with you, and isn't it mad that it would be two seasons in a row if that's the case, each with two promoted teams getting relegated.  There's a clearly a widening gulf between the Prem and the Championship.

[Wurzel]

Just realised why my PaddyPower account continously shows an open transaction. I'd forgotten I'd bet on a top 10 finish for us this year just before last season finished. I thought 7/2 was generous then, only dropped to 3/1 now so not much change there. So I guess that means we are performing roughly in line with bookies expectations.

Good to see they still have Newcastle as odds on to go down😁.  Not so pleased that only makes them 4th favourites for the drop😥

[S-Clarke]

1 hour ago, Matthew Le God said:

I don't think any of Norwich, Watford or Burnley will break the 30 point mark, so two more wins from the remaining 18 games and we will be safe.

Agreed, 28/29 will be the cut off. The rqd points has dropped so much over the last couple of years, probably a case of the gulf getting too big. Established clubs are miles ahead. Bar the ocasional stories of the likes of Leeds, Brentfords, Sheff U (using momentum from their promotion - but it does catch up with them) promoted clubs nowadays just struggle to even get close to competing. So you'll get a clutch of clubs who just bounce between leagues for infinity (Norwich, West Brom, Watford etc)

Edited 13 January, 2022 by S-Clarke

[Saint86]

Personally think 34 points will be around the cut off point this year. Teams like Everton and Leeds would be in trouble in teams below them weren't so bad.

Norwich are gone.

Burnley look to be in real trouble now with only Jayrod as a recognised striker available until afcon finishes.

Watford have the ability to cause teams problems and score goals - so they could potentially go on a run.

Newcastle - they've made signings - but trippier and woods doesn't take them from losing at home to Cambridge (at nearly full strength) to staying up - especially as tripper started that game. They play watford this weekend, and i think burnley away as the last game of the season. Could still  see them going down and would love that to happen.

Edited 13 January, 2022 by Saint86

[manji]

Even if Newcastle were relegated I reckon they would come straight back. They would be unbearable next season walking the Championship. 
 

[Lighthouse]

19 minutes ago, Saint86 said:

Personally think 34 points will be around the cut off point this year

Even assuming Newcastle rocket up the table with er.... Chris Wood, that would still require either Norwich or Watford to produce lower-midtable form from here on in and I just don't see it. 

[S-Clarke]

19 minutes ago, manji said:

Even if Newcastle were relegated I reckon they would come straight back. They would be unbearable next season walking the Championship. 
 

It would be a shitty relegation for all those clubs in the Champ hoping to compete, especially whoever got relegated with Newcastle. They'd just buy all the best Championship players and storm to 100+ points or something daft like that. As funny as it would be, a relegation wouldn't really harm Newcastle or set them back. It would allow them to 'walk a league' and get some serious momentum to continue when they get back up.

[tajjuk]

They'll be annoying whatever because they'll throw £100 - £150 million a season at signings easily, plus be in for every high profile freebie as well I reckon.

We can only hope they are not too smart about it, because as we have seen with Everton even a lot of money doesn't mean you will get it right and Utd have probably spent 10 times or even 20 times more than us in the transfer market and are currently just 7 points better off than us. 

I'd still prefer them to go down, mainly because it would give us at least a season without them and that give us some breathing room to progress and get transfers done, because I feel like they are going to be annoying and just hang around sniffing about every transfer deal clubs like us do because their scouting/strategy is not very good, so you can bet a lot of agents out there will be notifying them of available players that might be going to other PL clubs.  Like we find some wonderkid in France or Spain and then get gazumped by Newcastle, it would be less likely to happen if they were in the championship.

Plus, whilst unlikely, how hilarious would it be if they failed to bounce back. 

[Saint86]

1 hour ago, manji said:

Even if Newcastle were relegated I reckon they would come straight back. They would be unbearable next season walking the Championship. 
 

Yeah, but it upsets the project. They'll have to buy another tier of players (on top of the trippiers/woods of this world) to get them out of the champ. And then they've got to work their way up the league. By which point FFP will bite to a degree - ala everton/villa and hamper their ability to ever really break into the top 6. If they stay up this summer, then they can just whack down a couple of hundred million on a bunch of star players (all in it for the "project"), and immediately buy themselves a top 6 squad.

To be clear, i think we're in a pretty good spot to go back to our "underdog punching above our weight" routine now. Debts under control, stable backroom and scouting setup, good manager, young squad, and a clear identity - but we don't need teams like Newcastle buying their way above us 🤷‍♂️

Edited 13 January, 2022 by Saint86

[OldNick]

47 minutes ago, tajjuk said:

They'll be annoying whatever because they'll throw £100 - £150 million a season at signings easily, plus be in for every high profile freebie as well I reckon.

We can only hope they are not too smart about it, because as we have seen with Everton even a lot of money doesn't mean you will get it right and Utd have probably spent 10 times or even 20 times more than us in the transfer market and are currently just 7 points better off than us. 

I'd still prefer them to go down, mainly because it would give us at least a season without them and that give us some breathing room to progress and get transfers done, because I feel like they are going to be annoying and just hang around sniffing about every transfer deal clubs like us do because their scouting/strategy is not very good, so you can bet a lot of agents out there will be notifying them of available players that might be going to other PL clubs.  Like we find some wonderkid in France or Spain and then get gazumped by Newcastle, it would be less likely to happen if they were in the championship.

Plus, whilst unlikely, how hilarious would it be if they failed to bounce back. 

If you were part of the squad at present (not the new signings)would you go wholeheartedly into 50-50's and give it all ? I personally think the middle range players will not up their game and funilly enough they will be better off if Newcastle are relegated

[Saint86]

1 hour ago, Lighthouse said:

Even assuming Newcastle rocket up the table with er.... Chris Wood, that would still require either Norwich or Watford to produce lower-midtable form from here on in and I just don't see it. 

Maybe, I don't necessarily disagree I suppose. But I also think you've got to assume that some of those teams are going to pick up (i'd guess most of us would predict that to be Newcastle and then one of Watford or Burnley - who have 2 games in hand). I do think the safety total will be around 34points, and certainly nearer to it than the 28 some posters have mentioned. Time will tell I guess - I suppose to reach that amount it means that the teams above will have to drop points to the bottom 4 which will drag them back into it.

Eitherway, on the basis that we'd need about 2-3 wins and a couple of draws - i think as Saints fans we can basically look forward to a stress free end of the season now, with hopefully a cup run and maybe an outside chance of a top 10 or top 8 finish.

Edited 13 January, 2022 by Saint86

[Matthew Le God]

4 hours ago, Saint86 said:

Personally think 34 points will be around the cut off point this year.

That would require at least one of Watford, Burnley and Norwich to get 23/24 points from half a season worth of games. What is changing for them that would see such an upturn in form give they are currently all on 10 or 11 points? Last season it was possible to stay up on 28 points, I think there is a decent chance it will be even lower this season.

[skintsaint]

What we at now? 

Would take something special for us to go down from here I feel.

Could bite me in the arse saying that being Saints an' all.

[Sunglasses Ron]

1 minute ago, skintsaint said:

What we at now? 

Would take something special for us to go down from here I feel.

Could bite me in the arse saying that being Saints an' all.

66-1 when I looked yesterday.

Safe as houses!

[JRM]

I think Norwich could still catch Brentford 

[Wurzel]

8 minutes ago, Sunglasses Ron said:

66-1 when I looked yesterday.

Safe as houses!

Last year Fulham went down in 18th with 28pts -26 GD. We are already on 28pts -7GD with another 45pts to play for. I don't think even the the biggest glass half empty Saints fan will be taking those odds