Relegation run-in 2022/23

[Super_Uwe]

So then, 17 league games left this season.

We currently have 15 points from 21 games. Our GD is terrible at -21, only Bournemouth are worse on -24.

West Ham currently in 17th place on 19 points with GD of -8. 

So we are effectively 5 points from safety. But only 6 points away from Leicester in 14th (or 7 if you take GD into account).

With the bottom 3 not cut adrift, I personally think the magic number for safety this season will be 37 points.

So we will need to win 6, draw 4 and lose 7. Or any combo that makes up 22 points.

A big, big ask!

 

 

 

[Toussaint]

At the moment I don't feel we are going to win again this season, so based on that, it's a really "big big ask". That could all change though, forever hopeful. 

[S-Clarke]

I find it hard to even get behind these sort of threads, it just doesn't feel like it's worth the futile emotional rollercoaster we'd be putting ourselves through.

Personally I think you should stick a fork in us, we're done. I cannot see how we overcome those above us. It's only Bournemouth and Everton who I look at and question squad wise, and they're already in the bottom 3 with us. Everyone else above (Leeds, WHU, Forest, Wolves, Leiecster) imo are levels above us in experience and quality and it's not even really a contest. For us it's a battle with Bournemouth to not finish 20th.

Edited 9 February, 2023 by S-Clarke

[Sunglasses Ron]

We're practically down already IMO, that defeat against Aston Villa killed us.

I know some will point out that we're "ONLY" a few wins from 14th and still have 17 games left.  In my respectful opinion though, these are like the opposite of the people from previous seasons that think we could still go down when "ONLY" six points clear of the bottom three with a handful of games to go.

[LGTL]

Us and Bournemouth are done. We'll be lucky to make 30 points IMO. We'll struggle to reach 25 if Jones is still here. 

[Appy]

We’d have to win at least four home games for the rest of the season to stand any chance. 
 

Spoiler alert, we won’t. 

[Fan The Flames]

It feels like we're done.

So thinking of next season, I want to get a couple of new grounds in, Coventry and Ipswich (if they go up), do Watford to help my son complete all the London(ish) grounds and Plymouth (itgu) for family reasons.

It won't be so bad.

Just remembered I did Ipswich years ago with my old man. So maybe a northern one like Everton or Blackpool.

Edited 9 February, 2023 by Fan The Flames

[Toadhall Saint]

I hate to give up but should we lose on sat we’re toast 

[Dirkdiggler]

It’s annoying that although we’re not completely cut adrift and it’s still possible we could do another “great escape” with Jones at the helm it doesn’t seem possible. 

[whelk]

Weirdly 

[Whitey Grandad]

53 minutes ago, Fan The Flames said:

It feels like we're done.

So thinking of next season, I want to get a couple of new grounds in, Coventry and Ipswich (if they go up), do Watford to help my son complete all the London(ish) grounds and Plymouth (itgu) for family reasons.

It won't be so bad.

Just remembered I did Ipswich years ago with my old man. So maybe a northern one like Everton or Blackpool.

I've been there a few times. I used to live up that way and my dad used to go and watch them when Alf Ramsey was in charge.

[Super_Uwe]

Share many of your views, I'm not optimistic at all!

But Forest have managed to get 11 points from their last 5 games, which has massively improved their position.

So there is some hope if we can somehow get some decent results going...

 

 

 

 

[Saint Garrett]

1 hour ago, whelk said:

Weirdly 

Forest 😂

[FarehamSaintJames]

Us and Bournemouth are already done.

Everton will get out under Dyche.

Forest I think have enough under Cooper and their three hundred players.

Leicester and Leeds I think it’ll come down to to fill that third place finish for relegation.

[bjk]

We're done if we stay with Jones.Make a change and make it quick and we may have a chance.

[saintscottofthenortham]

Looking at our fixtures, 22 points is looking a big ask. I've just done a realistic expectation (that includes 3 points at home to Palace so take realistic with a pinch of salt)... I've got us picking up 18 points in our run-in.

Five "winnable" games - Wolves (H), Palace (H), Bournemouth (H), Forest (A) and Fulham (H).

For me... We're doomed.

[Baird of the land]

3 minutes ago, saintscottofthenortham said:

Looking at our fixtures, 22 points is looking a big ask. I've just done a realistic expectation (that includes 3 points at home to Palace so take realistic with a pinch of salt)... I've got us picking up 18 points in our run-in.

Five "winnable" games - Wolves (H), Palace (H), Bournemouth (H), Forest (A) and Fulham (H).

For me... We're doomed.

I'd argue Leeds away is winnable, they are below forest aren't they. Have to make St Marys more of a fortress though. There's games like Fulham at home(are they going to be able to keep it up), Spurs at home(they can be a bit hit & miss under conte), Liverpool at home(Will they have anything to play for by then), Chelsea away(are they ever going to get going) that really need to get something from

 

 

 

[Miltonaggro]

8 minutes ago, saintscottofthenortham said:

Looking at our fixtures, 22 points is looking a big ask. I've just done a realistic expectation (that includes 3 points at home to Palace so take realistic with a pinch of salt)... I've got us picking up 18 points in our run-in.

Five "winnable" games - Wolves (H), Palace (H), Bournemouth (H), Forest (A) and Fulham (H).

For me... We're doomed.

My view too. Last chance saloon would have been to sack Jones last weekend in an attempt to regroup and have some positive energy in the club going into the final few months. We got the dead cat without the bounce in November - self inflicted injury. 

[Saint Fan CaM]

So for me it’s not just about the available points, it’s about the likelihood of taking those points.  Based largely on the Manager knowing how to coach and tactically outshine his counterparts, we’ve got little chance of the consistent improvement necessary. He might get it right by some fluke 50% of the time, but there’s little margin for error and we need a near perfect run of results from here until season end.

To say we’re not cut adrift is wrong in my estimation - we need to catch the teams above us who will also be picking up points so it’s a moving target. Nope, as much as I would love to think otherwise, our goose is cooked and relegation is pretty much nailed on.

[Saint_clark]

Interesting that nobody is mentioning West Ham as a possibility to go down. I think they're in real trouble.

[SambaMaverick]

36 minutes ago, Saint_clark said:

Interesting that nobody is mentioning West Ham as a possibility to go down. I think they're in real trouble.

I can't see it. Moyes is a good, experienced manager and the squad is easily top half.

[Saint_clark]

5 minutes ago, SambaMaverick said:

I can't see it. Moyes is a good, experienced manager and the squad is easily top half.

Are they though? Rice, Soucek and Paqueta i'll give you...but the rest are midtable players at best, the better of which are aging and they have a few injuries in key places. 

[SambaMaverick]

16 minutes ago, Saint_clark said:

Are they though? Rice, Soucek and Paqueta i'll give you...but the rest are midtable players at best, the better of which are aging and they have a few injuries in key places. 

That Aguerd is a top player if they can keep him fit, Kehrer is a good player and versatile too. Zouma as well. Bowen could catch fire at any moment, and Ings will keep them out of trouble. Fornals is pretty good as well.

[saintant]

2 hours ago, saintscottofthenortham said:

Looking at our fixtures, 22 points is looking a big ask. I've just done a realistic expectation (that includes 3 points at home to Palace so take realistic with a pinch of salt)... I've got us picking up 18 points in our run-in.

Five "winnable" games - Wolves (H), Palace (H), Bournemouth (H), Forest (A) and Fulham (H).

For me... We're doomed.

Jones is not suddenly going to start getting the results we need to avoid relegation - the only person who believes that is Ankersen.

[CB Fry]

But what will you all say if we win on Saturday?

I'll tell you what I will say = we're going down.

All relegated teams win some matches.

[Charlie Wayman]

We're down so get used to it.The Villa match was our last chance and we blew it. 4 wins in 21 and we need at least 7 in the next 17. How does that work? It doesn't!

[CB Fry]

16 minutes ago, Charlie Wayman said:

We're down so get used to it.The Villa match was our last chance and we blew it. 4 wins in 21 and we need at least 7 in the next 17. How does that work? It doesn't!

It doesn't work because we don't need to win "at least seven".

[Crab Lungs]

Its us, Bournemouth and if Leeds don’t recruit properly, them.

[Lighthouse]

It’s got to the point that I really, genuinely don’t care about the relegation fight. When Leeds were 2-0 up last night, I honestly can’t say I was bothered, we’re so poor that it doesn’t matter. Possibly the worst part of it is we’ve just played all our easiest fixtures and lost all but one. Christ knows what will happen when Jones comes up against someone good.

[woodsaint1]

42 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

It’s got to the point that I really, genuinely don’t care about the relegation fight. When Leeds were 2-0 up last night, I honestly can’t say I was bothered, we’re so poor that it doesn’t matter. Possibly the worst part of it is we’ve just played all our easiest fixtures and lost all but one. Christ knows what will happen when Jones comes up against someone good.

Same here. Its sadly been on the cards for a few years. We've always been capable of a terrible run of form, but it feels like this run has been going for about a year now. Was gutted in 2005, but we deserve relegation for some of the terrible decision making from SR. The club badly needs a reset

[alehouseboys]

The continue shit shows and defeats and eventual relegation will be painful, but come August I will be enthused with the season ahead. No PL bullshit, different grounds to visit and the prospect of a few more winnable games. If it goes too well it will be back to the PL and the inevitable consequences of being in that league. Having said that, I would enjoy promotion if it were to happen and renewed hope would return...for a while.

[saintscottofthenortham]

6 hours ago, Baird of the land said:

I'd argue Leeds away is winnable, they are below forest aren't they. Have to make St Marys more of a fortress though. There's games like Fulham at home(are they going to be able to keep it up), Spurs at home(they can be a bit hit & miss under conte), Liverpool at home(Will they have anything to play for by then), Chelsea away(are they ever going to get going) that really need to get something from

 

 

 

With the way we've looked under Jones thus far, I can't see us getting owt from Chelsea, Spurs or Liverpool, no matter what they do or do not have to play for. Leicester (H) was one we could possibly turn into a win, and West Ham (A) one we could potentially knick something from, which would boost the tally from 19 to somewhere in the mix, but it all just feels that bit too unachievable, on all we've seen thus far.

If we somehow turn this around, whilst on paper it wouldn't look it, it would be one almighty saviour. Left ourselves too much for me to even think about believing it, unfortunately.

[SNSUN]

51 points available - but ignore Liverpool on the last day for now so 48. Quarter it - We need 6 points from every 12 available to hit 39 going into the last day which should be enough for safety - in other words we need to acquire roughly half of our available points to get safety. 5 per 12 would have us on 35 points going into the last day which may or may not be enough. 4 from 12 means we hit only 31 with the last game available, which I don't think will be enough.

 

It's doable but we need a huge upshift in form, the likes we haven't seen since we came back from the COVID break in 2020. In other words, we're probably buggered.

[beatlesaint]

I just cant find three teams worse than us that we can overtake. Bournemouth is about it. Forest have done what we haven't, won the games they need to win. Ok they may still go down but we arent catching them.

We need to win 7 games and hope a couple do a Swansea from the Hughes season. Cant see it at all.

[Super_Uwe]

I feel we need a draw minimum at Chelsea. Another defeat will just compound the terrible slump we find ourselves in.

[Super_Uwe]

Still in shock at the Chelsea game and how the team performed under Selles! Like night and day!

So we have 15 games left.

A draw at Leeds would be acceptable tbh. Absolutely essential we don't lose.

Leicester at home - a win would give us 7 points from 3 games. 5 pts from 3 games still perfectly fine, but really important we don't lose.

As things stand West Ham look in big trouble, as do Leeds.

But I think its going to go to the final day whatever!

[SNSUN]

1 hour ago, Super_Uwe said:

Still in shock at the Chelsea game and how the team performed under Selles! Like night and day!

So we have 15 games left.

A draw at Leeds would be acceptable tbh. Absolutely essential we don't lose.

Leicester at home - a win would give us 7 points from 3 games. 5 pts from 3 games still perfectly fine, but really important we don't lose.

As things stand West Ham look in big trouble, as do Leeds.

But I think its going to go to the final day whatever!

That will likely be our downfall seeing as it's Liverpool. Our goal difference also sucks. I hate that I sound like a mardy bastard because we did get a well fought win against Chelsea but I'm staying grounded and still think it's too little too late. However as I've said I just want us to fight and give us a chance so, I suppose, going into the last day with a chance of survival would be decent especially considering where we are right now. I just feel like I already know how that ends.

[Brissysaint]

I’m feeling more positive after the weekend, if we can keep this momentum going against Leeds and Leicester I can’t see why we can’t pick up a gritty win against one of the big boys to get us ahead, I think there’s 4 teams easily as bad as us now too where as I couldn’t say that 2 weeks ago.

[Saint_clark]

There is good potential in the team we've put together at the moment and I think we need to be firm with the players even if we do go down that we won't be letting anyone go that we don't want to. 

[Brissysaint]

10 minutes ago, Saint_clark said:

There is good potential in the team we've put together at the moment and I think we need to be firm with the players even if we do go down that we won't be letting anyone go that we don't want to. 

Nice in theory and I hope they do, I could see the younger kids buying in (apart from Lavia probably unless he can’t get guaranteed first team at the big clubs)

sulemana could go if he has an absolutely barnstorming run in, which if he does I could see us staying up anyway.

JWP is either way, don’t know how far his loyalty stretches

KWP is gone probably with ABK and maybe* Salisu

i can see the rest sticking around though 

IMO of course.

[Saint Garrett]

My gut feeling is that Adams, Salisu and KWP will all leave regardless this summer, given their contract situations unless they sign a new one.

[Dusic]

Due to their position, the Leeds game is a must win for us if we have any chance of staying up. If they win then they are effectively 5 points ahead of us. A draw only passable if we then beat Leicester.

Its 3 from 4 for relegation so this and our home game vs Bournemouth in April are going to be huge.

[sfc4prem]

1 minute ago, Dusic said:

Due to their position, the Leeds game is a must win for us if we have any chance of staying up. If they win then they are effectively 5 points ahead of us. A draw only passable if we then beat Leicester.

Its 3 from 4 for relegation so this and our home game vs Bournemouth in April are going to be huge.

Its pretty simple really, we need a huge upturn in form. We need over a point per game for the rest of the season. These relegation 6 pointers simply cannot be losses otherwise it's getting close to curtains for us.

[Super_Uwe]

On 21/02/2023 at 10:47, sfc4prem said:

Its pretty simple really, we need a huge upturn in form. We need over a point per game for the rest of the season. These relegation 6 pointers simply cannot be losses otherwise it's getting close to curtains for us.

Yeah, we can't afford to lose against the teams around us (or if we do, we can't afford more than the odd one).

The bottom nine clubs are only separated by 8 points though. Very, very tight.

[Sunglasses Ron]

I still think we're down, but the Chelsea result was huge as it practically would have been a formality otherwise.

A point against Leeds wouldn't be terrible, especially if it was followed up with a win against Leicester.

It's a slim chance at best, but we just may pull ourselves out of this mess.

[Wurzel]

Could be anyone below Chelsea. I think Bournemouth are nailed on to go down.  There's often a team you don't see coming that has a bad run and finds themselves down there too late to stop the rot.  I hope not because I like them but I think that's Palace this year.

That leaves us and 7 others. I still say every team has a good and a bad run at some stage of the season, we're still due a good one and I honestly see us doing enough to survive*.  So wish it will be Everton but I think the other place is between Leeds, West Ham & Forest.

*opinion could be subject to change by 5pm Saturday

[Highfield Saint]

On 21/02/2023 at 10:47, sfc4prem said:

Its pretty simple really, we need a huge upturn in form. We need over a point per game for the rest of the season. These relegation 6 pointers simply cannot be losses otherwise it's getting close to curtains for us.

we actually need a huge uptake in our home form. If we dont improve that we are down and the fans have a massive part to play. Make the place as intimidating as we can

[CB Fry]

The Athletic have got their boffins to run the numbers and they've got us not only relegated but finishing bottom. 

[FarehamSaintJames]

That Chelsea win shows that there is ability within the squad for us to do something well, a chance to stay up.

It’s about replicating that performances on a consistent basis.

As was mentioned above, if we can get four points out of Leeds and Leicester then I think we can perform a miracle.

Teams will be taking points off each other in these last few weeks.

[Sunglasses Ron]

1 hour ago, CB Fry said:

The Athletic have got their boffins to run the numbers and they've got us not only relegated but finishing bottom. 

I don't think anyone would be surprised if that happened.

Big question though is whether the new signings and sacking of Jones will have a seismic impact.  Initial signs are yes, but very hard to say if it will last.