Relegation run-in 2022/23

[Charlie Wayman]

I use a random number generator for the Lotto so should be a multi millionaire by now but sadly I am not! 

[Toussaint]

Points

0 - Man U A

1 - Brentford H

3- Spurs H

0 - WHU A

0 - City H

3 - Palace H

0 - Arse A

3 - Bournemouth H 

0 - Newcastle A

0 - Forest A

1 - Fulham H (unless on the beach)

0 - Brighton Away  (unless on the beach)

0 - Liverpool H

 

 = 32 points total unless we have a couple of shocks wins, (think I've already factored in a couple of generous results), or pick up points against "on the beach" sides, which I recall happening in the great escape seasons(s)  

 

 

[Baird of the land]

20 minutes ago, Toussaint said:

Points

0 - Man U A

1 - Brentford H

3- Spurs H

0 - WHU A

0 - City H

3 - Palace H

0 - Arse A

3 - Bournemouth H 

0 - Newcastle A

0 - Forest A

1 - Fulham H (unless on the beach)

0 - Brighton Away  (unless on the beach)

0 - Liverpool H

 

 = 32 points total unless we have a couple of shocks wins, (think I've already factored in a couple of generous results), or pick up points against "on the beach" sides, which I recall happening in the great escape seasons(s)  

 

 

Do find some of your results very odd. Our away form is better than our home, yet you have us getting no more points away from home this season despite playing strugglers such as West Ham and Forest. At home you've got us beating the team in 4th but getting worse results against 5th, 7th and 9th.

[Toussaint]

10 minutes ago, Baird of the land said:

Do find some of your results very odd. Our away form is better than our home, yet you have us getting no more points away from home this season despite playing strugglers such as West Ham and Forest. At home you've got us beating the team in 4th but getting worse results against 5th, 7th and 9th.

I haven't applied any science to it, just gut feeling. I don't see us getting anything against WHU or Forest, they both have the capability to bully us.  Spurs are flakey, and we tend to do well against good but flakey sides. Who knows? I am buoyed by the 2 wins in 3,   but we massively rode our luck in both of those games, yes we need some luck, but we still have very little attacking potency, and, as I said above, its losing to the dross around us that will be very difficult to overcome. 

[Baird of the land]

3 hours ago, Toussaint said:

I haven't applied any science to it, just gut feeling. I don't see us getting anything against WHU or Forest, they both have the capability to bully us.  Spurs are flakey, and we tend to do well against good but flakey sides. Who knows? I am buoyed by the 2 wins in 3,   but we massively rode our luck in both of those games, yes we need some luck, but we still have very little attacking potency, and, as I said above, its losing to the dross around us that will be very difficult to overcome. 

Fair enough. I view forest game, alongside palace and Bournemouth as our best hopes for wins. 

[Super_Uwe]

Hadn't actually clocked the bottom nine clubs are separately by just 6 points. So things getting even tighter as the season comes to a close.

The last three games for Saints are intriguing, if we can get to that point where survival is still possible.

Fulham at home, Brighton away then Liverpool at home. Fulham and Brighton have done fantastically well this season, will they still be in with a chance of European football, or will they be the best of the rest with little to play for? All hypothetical but if the latter then we'd surely have *a little* more hope?

Liverpool should be in or around 3rd come the final game, I really don't want us having to get something from that game to stay up!

[SaintTex]

On 08/03/2023 at 06:50, Toussaint said:

Points

0 - Man U A

1 - Brentford H

3- Spurs H

0 - WHU A

0 - City H

3 - Palace H

0 - Arse A

3 - Bournemouth H 

0 - Newcastle A

0 - Forest A

1 - Fulham H (unless on the beach)

0 - Brighton Away  (unless on the beach)

0 - Liverpool H

 

 = 32 points total unless we have a couple of shocks wins, (think I've already factored in a couple of generous results), or pick up points against "on the beach" sides, which I recall happening in the great escape seasons(s)  

 

 

I feel like if we are at 31 points with 5 matches left, we have got a fighting chance - 2 wins gets us to 37.

The only team of that lot possibly on the beach would be Liverpool (I see them comfortably in 3rd or 4th by the time they play us)

Brighton, Fulham and Newcastle will all be fighting/jostling for Europa.

Forest will be fighting against relegation (hopefully)

 

was just looking at the table.. Newcastle is freefalling. In their last 8 league games, they have scored 3 goals.

Edited 9 March, 2023 by SaintTex

[badgerx16]

How many doing predictors had Bournemouth beating Liverpool and Saints getting a point at OT ?

[Super_Uwe]

4 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

How many doing predictors had Bournemouth beating Liverpool and Saints getting a point at OT ?

Exactly!

Feels so harsh that we are bottom still.

But 7 points out of last 12 means we have something to build on. Clean sheets also a massive bonus.

Carry on at that rate, we would have 43pts by the end of the season! It's really not over yet.

[Saint_clark]

5 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

How many doing predictors had Bournemouth beating Liverpool and Saints getting a point at OT ?

Mine didn't, so i'll update my prediction to us staying up by 2 points instead of 1  

[benjii]

Nathan Fucking Jones, FFS, WTF! Mental. FFS! It didn't have to be like this!

[Saint_Tony]

I don't know how we are still in this after being so poor for such a prolonged period. Still seems a tall order to survive, we are going to have to maintain the form we are in under Selles for the rest of the season.

Obviously having Jones in is the disaster in all this, having said that if we'd have beaten Wolves he'd have been given more time.

I think we will just fall short, unless we can scrape a few more 1-0 wins together.

[Ted Bates Statue]

1 hour ago, Saint_Tony said:

 

Obviously having Jones in is the disaster in all this, having said that if we'd have beaten Wolves he'd have been given more time.

I think we will just fall short, unless we can scrape a few more 1-0 wins together.

 

Yes, I think of it as having beaten Man City, we basically gained nothing out of it in the long-run other than an additional grace period of 2-3 games for NJ. Had we been knocked out then, Selles would probably have been in charge by the Wolves match.

[benjii]

On 08/03/2023 at 16:50, Toussaint said:

Points

0 - Man U A

1 - Brentford H

3- Spurs H

0 - WHU A

0 - City H

3 - Palace H

0 - Arse A

3 - Bournemouth H 

0 - Newcastle A

0 - Forest A

1 - Fulham H (unless on the beach)

0 - Brighton Away  (unless on the beach)

0 - Liverpool H

 

 = 32 points total unless we have a couple of shocks wins, (think I've already factored in a couple of generous results), or pick up points against "on the beach" sides, which I recall happening in the great escape seasons(s)  

 

 

Looking at that, I would say we need to be targeting 12 points from the 6 home games (realistically, from the next 5 to avoid a pant-shitting final day against the scousers) and avoid defeat against WHU and Forest, ideally winning one of them. That gives us 36 - 38 points so another draw or win on top of that should do it. 

Home form is key though, to keep momentum and positivity. The Brentford game is massive. A win would really build on the last couple of results and suddenly give us a reasonable shot.

Edited 13 March, 2023 by benjii

[Jimmy_D]

Under Selles, Saints have lost to Leeds and Grimsby, taken 4 points from Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge, and beaten Leicester too.

On top of that our away form is better than our home form.

Looking at remaining fixtures and trying to predict them seems even less useful than normal!

With 9 teams very much in the mix, if we can just keep picking up a few results from literally anywhere, we won’t need too much to go our way to end up safe.

[Saint_Ash]

I'd love to climb out of relegation in the next week or two just to shove it down the throats of the pundits who all have us definitely going down as Everton, West Ham, Leeds etc are all too big to go down. 

[CB Fry]

2 hours ago, Saint_Ash said:

I'd love to climb out of relegation in the next week or two just to shove it down the throats of the pundits who all have us definitely going down as Everton, West Ham, Leeds etc are all too big to go down. 

Jesus wept.

I think pundits have been predicting us to go down because we've been bottom of the league, and we still are.

And absolutely no pundit will say that those other clubs are "too big to go down". If anything the average pundit will trot out the cliche "no one is too big to go down".

Our league position is not a media pundit conspiracy.

Edited 13 March, 2023 by CB Fry

[cloggy saint]

1 minute ago, CB Fry said:

Our league position is not a media pundit conspiracy.

Of course it is, everything is an anti-saints conspiracy, VAR, referees, commentators, pundits, everyone hates us.

[LegalEagle]

12 hours ago, benjii said:

Nathan Fucking Jones, FFS, WTF! Mental. FFS! It didn't have to be like this!

It will go down in Saints folklore. 40 years from now if someone fucks up and is totally clueless but really think they are the dog bollocks, it will be referred to as “Doing a Nathan”. We’ll have to explain to our grandchildren.

[Whitey Grandad]

1 hour ago, LegalEagle said:

It will go down in Saints folklore. 40 years from now if someone fucks up and is totally clueless but really think they are the dog bollocks, it will be referred to as “Doing a Nathan”. We’ll have to explain to our grandchildren.

One of my grandsons is called Nathan 😧

[kwsaint]

5 hours ago, Whitey Grandad said:

One of my grandsons is called Nathan 😧

https://www.gov.uk/change-name-deed-poll/change-a-childs-name

HTH.

[Saint Garrett]

23 hours ago, Saint_Tony said:

 

Obviously having Jones in is the disaster in all this, having said that if we'd have beaten Wolves he'd have been given more time.

 

And if he'd gone before we played Wolves like he should have been, we could be sat in 15th on 25 points! If we never brought him in in the first place we might be top half! 

Who knows. But what we do know it was an absolute disaster hiring him, and he should have gone way earlier than he did.

[Micky]

Simon Jordan thinks we're already gone. Anything less than 3 points against Brentford and I would think he's probably right. 

 

[obelisk]

Probably need to win about half the remaining games now but if we can't score I just don't see how that's possible.

My advice would be to accept the inevitable and the sooner it now happens the better.

[Super_Uwe]

Just a desperately poor result last night. If we'd won we would be in 16th place this morning.

Conceding that 2nd goal right at the end just rubs salt into the wound, given how poor our GD is relative to our relegation rivals.

And yet despite all this, the bottom half is still ridiculously tight. It's going to be a while yet before our fate is confirmed. Palace sinking fast and Leicester also struggling. 

It's the hope that kills you though 😄

[JRM]

40 minutes ago, Super_Uwe said:

Just a desperately poor result last night. If we'd won we would be in 16th place this morning.

Conceding that 2nd goal right at the end just rubs salt into the wound, given how poor our GD is relative to our relegation rivals.

And yet despite all this, the bottom half is still ridiculously tight. It's going to be a while yet before our fate is confirmed. Palace sinking fast and Leicester also struggling. 

It's the hope that kills you though 😄

It is confirmed, Southampton Football Club will be playing in the championship next season. 

[Pamplemousse]

If we get something from the Tottenham game and beat West Ham we'll be back in it. Got to have faith it'll click at some point.

[S-Clarke]

1 hour ago, Pamplemousse said:

If we get something from the Tottenham game and beat West Ham we'll be back in it. Got to have faith it'll click at some point.

My faith went after last night tbh, I had a bit of a hope spurt after the Utd game but we simply HAVE to win our home games against the sides in the middle of the table (Brentford included).

We had opportunities at home over the course of the season v Brighton, Forest, Everton, Wolves, Brentford, Villa, West Ham, Leeds - all those games and we haven't won any of them at home.

We now need to realistically win every single home game we have left, which includes Liverpool, Man City, Spurs etc. If we can't win all of the remaining home games, then we will need to be getting wins away at Arsenal and Brighton. That's how tricky it is after last night.

Edited 16 March, 2023 by S-Clarke

[OttawaSaint]

2 hours ago, Pamplemousse said:

If we get something from the Tottenham game and beat West Ham we'll be back in it. Got to have faith it'll click at some point.

Need goals to do that and we don't have any in our side. Those teams you mention do. 

We can't rely on a team misfiring and then getting enough free kicks in JWPs office to snatch a goal ourselves. We're going down and fully deserve it.

[saintdaz]

We should have brought Tella back in January 

[redkeith]

Off the remaining games, we have Spurs, Bournemouth, Palace and Fulham at home , who all play a solid block defence and hit on the break. 

Away from home we have West Ham, Newcastle, Forest and Brighton, who all play a solid block defence and hit on the break. 

We cannot beat teams who play a solid block defence and hit on the break. 

This leaves Man City and Liverpool at home, and Arsenal  away as teams that may give us some space on the rare occasions that we have the ball.

I would be astounded if we even get to 30 points. 

[Forester]

It’s looking unlikely, but because of how tight things are and the many “six pointers” around us I haven’t yet written it off.  But no doubt at all last night made it harder.

 

There are always shock results, but a realistic route that may see us stay up (not certain that it would) is as follows:

 

Beat Wet Spam, Palace, Forest and Fulham

Draw with Spurs and Brighton

Lose to City, Newcastle, Arsenal, Manure and Liverpool

 

That would get us to 36 points, which most seasons is not enough but maybe this year.  I would go as far as to say that if one of the “draw or lose” matches could be flipped to a win I would be confident that 38 or 39 points would do it this year. 

 

Edited 16 March, 2023 by Forester

[OnceaSaintalwaysaSaint]

5 hours ago, Forester said:

It’s looking unlikely, but because of how tight things are and the many “six pointers” around us I haven’t yet written it off.  But no doubt at all last night made it harder.

 

There are always shock results, but a realistic route that may see us stay up (not certain that it would) is as follows:

 

Beat Wet Spam, Palace, Forest and Fulham

Draw with Spurs and Brighton

Lose to City, Newcastle, Arsenal, Manure and Liverpool

 

That would get us to 36 points, which most seasons is not enough but maybe this year.  I would go as far as to say that if one of the “draw or lose” matches could be flipped to a win I would be confident that 38 or 39 points would do it this year. 

 

This is my hope. Win those four and there's still a chance of picking up a couple of points elsewhere. Just rather miffed that we failed to have more than a shot on target yesterday. The lack of invention is so frustrating. Occasionally yesterday Ely ran in to space but you could practically see the player on the ball look up, see it was Ely and think "He's useless, not passing to him" and look for other tighter options. Just have to be more positive....what don't the players get?

[Jimbo]

these useless sacks of shite are not winning another four games (or even scoring four more goals) 

[SaintTex]

8 hours ago, S-Clarke said:

My faith went after last night tbh, I had a bit of a hope spurt after the Utd game but we simply HAVE to win our home games against the sides in the middle of the table (Brentford included).

We had opportunities at home over the course of the season v Brighton, Forest, Everton, Wolves, Brentford, Villa, West Ham, Leeds - all those games and we haven't won any of them at home.

We now need to realistically win every single home game we have left, which includes Liverpool, Man City, Spurs etc. If we can't win all of the remaining home games, then we will need to be getting wins away at Arsenal and Brighton. That's how tricky it is after last night.

meh, home or away, quality of opponent or not.. normal advantages don't seem to apply to this team.

Whether it is a home loss to Bournemouth or an away win against Arsenal - neither wouldn't particularly surprise me in this run-in. Inconsistency is our middle name. It's becoming increasingly clear we dont have enough rabbits to pull out of this hat we are in.

[SaintTex]

8 hours ago, saintdaz said:

We should have brought Tella back in January 

I haven't been following the type of goals Tella has been scoring at Burnley. Is he creating a lot of his chances, or is he getting goals served to him on a golden platter?

Because if it is the latter, he would not be pulling this current team out of the bottom 3.

[Eric The Red]

7 hours ago, Forester said:

It’s looking unlikely, but because of how tight things are and the many “six pointers” around us I haven’t yet written it off.  But no doubt at all last night made it harder.

 

There are always shock results, but a realistic route that may see us stay up (not certain that it would) is as follows:

 

Beat Wet Spam, Palace, Forest and Fulham

Draw with Spurs and Brighton

Lose to City, Newcastle, Arsenal, Manure and Liverpool

 

That would get us to 36 points, which most seasons is not enough but maybe this year.  I would go as far as to say that if one of the “draw or lose” matches could be flipped to a win I would be confident that 38 or 39 points would do it this year. 

 

Would prefer NOT to play Man Utd a 3rd time!  The good news Forester is if instead of losing to Man Utd we beat Bournemouth on your plan we would have 39 points and near certain safety

[Forester]

1 hour ago, Eric The Red said:

Would prefer NOT to play Man Utd a 3rd time!  The good news Forester is if instead of losing to Man Utd we beat Bournemouth on your plan we would have 39 points and near certain safety

Sorry, yes I had a malfunction!  And you are right, Bournemouth a great opportunity for three points

[Whitey Grandad]

1 minute ago, Forester said:

Sorry, yes I had a malfunction!  And you are right, Bournemouth a great opportunity for three points

I expect Bournemouth feel the same.

[OttawaSaint]

Our wasters couldn't beat an egg. 11 games left. Can't see us getting to 30 points or scoring more than about 5 goals. We are terrible.

Edited 16 March, 2023 by OttawaSaint

[Super_Uwe]

Well, we are finally at the business end of the season!

We have actually managed to stabilise our GD, which has gone under the radar a bit. After NJ's crash and burn spell, we were on -22 after the Wolves games. Six games on and we are on -23. Fine margins but this could ultimately be the difference between finishing 17th or 18th. Selles deserves a lot of credit for this.

A miniscule chance but worth mentioning if we can beat the Hammers by 2 goals and Everton lose by 3, I think we will *just about* be out of the drop zone come Monday night on goals scored with the same GD.

Fingers crossed!😇

Edited 2 April, 2023 by Super_Uwe

[Forester]

So just when it feels like all hope extinguished with that defeat yesterday you look at the table and I still feel a low points haul will be enough.  To be clear I think it is likely we are down after yesterday.  However I have been arguing that less than half the bottom nine will get more than one point per match in the run in and I still believe that.  
 

So what does that mean is needed to stay up?  Pessimistic view is that Palace, Wolves and Wet Spam are the ones that stumble with everyone else doing much better.  Highly unlikely I think, but that could mean 38 or 39 needed.  I can’t see us getting there, requiring five wins from nine games.

 

However, what if it’s the three worst placed teams above us?  36 credibly keeps you up.  For Saints that is four wins and a draw, with an improving goal difference and others deteriorating.  Most likely route to this, beat Palace, Bournemouth, Fulham and Forest.  Nick a point from one of the other five games.

 

Sadly I think yesterday makes this much harder.  However many other teams’ fans will be wondering how they get to 36 plus points too.  It’s the hope that kills you!

[trousers]

On 02/04/2023 at 08:17, Super_Uwe said:

Well, we are finally at the business end of the season!

We have actually managed to stabilise our GD, which has gone under the radar a bit. After NJ's crash and burn spell, we were on -22 after the Wolves games. Six games on and we are on -23. Fine margins but this could ultimately be the difference between finishing 17th or 18th. Selles deserves a lot of credit for this.

A miniscule chance but worth mentioning if we can beat the Hammers by 2 goals and Everton lose by 3, I think we will *just about* be out of the drop zone come Monday night on goals scored with the same GD.

Fingers crossed!😇

You weren't wrong there...

[CB Fry]

7 hours ago, Forester said:

So just when it feels like all hope extinguished with that defeat yesterday you look at the table and I still feel a low points haul will be enough.  To be clear I think it is likely we are down after yesterday.  However I have been arguing that less than half the bottom nine will get more than one point per match in the run in and I still believe that.  
 

So what does that mean is needed to stay up?  Pessimistic view is that Palace, Wolves and Wet Spam are the ones that stumble with everyone else doing much better.  Highly unlikely I think, but that could mean 38 or 39 needed.  I can’t see us getting there, requiring five wins from nine games.

 

However, what if it’s the three worst placed teams above us?  36 credibly keeps you up.  For Saints that is four wins and a draw, with an improving goal difference and others deteriorating.  Most likely route to this, beat Palace, Bournemouth, Fulham and Forest.  Nick a point from one of the other five games.

 

Sadly I think yesterday makes this much harder.  However many other teams’ fans will be wondering how they get to 36 plus points too.  It’s the hope that kills you!

6 wins in 29 but yeah let's just make out that we can knock out four wins from the next 9 games. Sure sure.

"Many other teams fans" might be wondering where their final points come from but at least they can rest easy that they have more games than us and more points than us. One spot is gone, and it's us.

 

Way back when we had some absolute forum clowns trying to tell us all that "the relegation fight doesn't even start until after Easter". I wonder where they are now. 

[Super_Uwe]

10 hours ago, trousers said:

You weren't wrong there...

Oh it's desperate stuff now!😄

Have to assume City will be a defeat, so that leaves us on 23 points from 30 games. Anything we take from that would be a huge bonus.

The Bournemouth game will be an absolute must-win. No ifs or buts.

The only thing keeping us in the game is our proximity to 17th, still just 4 points. But lose the next two games and we'll likely be 7 or 8 points adrift, which will more or less seal our fate.

[Toussaint]

12 hours ago, Forester said:

So just when it feels like all hope extinguished with that defeat yesterday you look at the table and I still feel a low points haul will be enough.  To be clear I think it is likely we are down after yesterday.  However I have been arguing that less than half the bottom nine will get more than one point per match in the run in and I still believe that.  
 

So what does that mean is needed to stay up?  Pessimistic view is that Palace, Wolves and Wet Spam are the ones that stumble with everyone else doing much better.  Highly unlikely I think, but that could mean 38 or 39 needed.  I can’t see us getting there, requiring five wins from nine games.

 

However, what if it’s the three worst placed teams above us?  36 credibly keeps you up.  For Saints that is four wins and a draw, with an improving goal difference and others deteriorating.  Most likely route to this, beat Palace, Bournemouth, Fulham and Forest.  Nick a point from one of the other five games.

 

Sadly I think yesterday makes this much harder.  However many other teams’ fans will be wondering how they get to 36 plus points too.  It’s the hope that kills you!

I admire your positivity, but I’m pretty certain we are f u k t. There is just nothing there. Look how hard Everton fought last night, even when down to ten men. We just don’t have that in us.

[Dark Munster]

Mitrovic has been given an 8 match ban.

Quote

One game of Mitrovic's ban has already been served, meaning the forward will be unavailable until Fulham's match at Southampton on 13 May.

You have to laugh. Mind you, we'll probably already be down by then.

[hackedoff]

10 hours ago, CB Fry said:

6 wins in 29 but yeah let's just make out that we can knock out four wins from the next 9 games. Sure sure.

"Many other teams fans" might be wondering where their final points come from but at least they can rest easy that they have more games than us and more points than us. One spot is gone, and it's us.

 

Way back when we had some absolute forum clowns trying to tell us all that "the relegation fight doesn't even start until after Easter". I wonder where they are now. 

Sat in an office at St Mary,s wondering how they got it so wrong.

[stknowle]

It's us and 2 others. There's only 4 points between us and 14th and only 5 points between us and 13th but its still us plus 2 others going down. We're that bad.

Edited 4 April, 2023 by stknowle

[Forester]

22 hours ago, Forester said:

So just when it feels like all hope extinguished with that defeat yesterday you look at the table and I still feel a low points haul will be enough.  To be clear I think it is likely we are down after yesterday.  However I have been arguing that less than half the bottom nine will get more than one point per match in the run in and I still believe that.  
 

So what does that mean is needed to stay up?  Pessimistic view is that Palace, Wolves and Wet Spam are the ones that stumble with everyone else doing much better.  Highly unlikely I think, but that could mean 38 or 39 needed.  I can’t see us getting there, requiring five wins from nine games.

 

However, what if it’s the three worst placed teams above us?  36 credibly keeps you up.  For Saints that is four wins and a draw, with an improving goal difference and others deteriorating.  Most likely route to this, beat Palace, Bournemouth, Fulham and Forest.  Nick a point from one of the other five games.

 

Sadly I think yesterday makes this much harder.  However many other teams’ fans will be wondering how they get to 36 plus points too.  It’s the hope that kills you!

After tonight’s results, even more confident that a number of our rivals are going to gain less than a point per remaining game. At this rate 35 points may be enough