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Summer Transfer Window 2023


FarehamSaintJames

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5 minutes ago, Saint86 said:

He's scored 13goals in open play from effectively 42games this season, from the most shots of any player in the league, and under the same manager that he'll have at saints... That simply isn't good enough to spearhead our promotion charge, let alone as an investment for the premier league / resale (aka the SR way).

13 goals from open play. Yeah, sounds shit.

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57 minutes ago, Saint86 said:

He ranks 93rd in the championship for non penalty goals scored - (minus) non penalty expected goals ... 🤮 (For a comparison, Akpom of Boro is 2nd, Tella is 3rd, carlton morris of luton is 5th).

In addition, he is:

  • 77th for goals per shot.
  • 1st for total shots.
  • 1st for shots on target.

Also, 6 of his 19 goals were from free kicks/penalties. Which means that he scored 13 goals in open play over 42 games worth of 90mins.

Sounds like someone who needs a lot of chances to score / can't finish. But hell, didn't quite work out with Che and AA, may as well roll the dice, spend some more money, and see if its 3rd time lucky.

https://fbref.com/en/comps/10/shooting/Championship-Stats

Notable that Burnley, Boro, Luton, Milwall, and Sunderland all had great seasons and all had very clinical strikers. Funny that 😂

* I am aware that it doesn't just come down to striker accuracy, but also things like quality of chances created. However i think the above stats still speak for themselves.

Fucking bullshit.

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1 hour ago, Saint86 said:

Notable that Burnley, Boro, Luton, Milwall, and Sunderland all had great seasons and all had very clinical strikers. Funny that 😂

Interesting you added this at the end, I think maybe you shouldn't have bothered.

Burnley won the league powered by lots of things including loads of parachute money. But they didn't have one striker scoring more goals than Piroe. How clinical.

Swansea scored far more goals (68) in the season than clinical Luton (57). Luton's mega clinical striker scored one entire goal more (20) than useless old non-clinical Piroe (19).

Not one of Sunderland or Millwall's "clinical" strikers scored more goals than non-clinical Piroe.

Swansea as a team (68) scored far more than clinical Millwall (57), more than clinical Luton (57) and exactly the same amount as clinical Sunderland.

Sunderlands 68 goals obviously much more clinical goals so worth much much more than Swansea's 68 goals which were all just flukes or something.

Keep going with the stats, you're absolutely smashing it. Funny that 😂😂😂

 

Edited by CB Fry
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1 hour ago, CB Fry said:

Interesting you added this at the end, I think maybe you shouldn't have bothered.

Burnley won the league powered by lots of things including loads of parachute money. But they didn't have one striker scoring more goals than Piroe. How clinical.

Swansea scored far more goals (68) in the season than clinical Luton (57). Luton's mega clinical striker scored one entire goal more (20) than useless old non-clinical Piroe (19).

Not one of Sunderland or Millwall's "clinical" strikers scored more goals than non-clinical Piroe.

Swansea as a team (68) scored far more than clinical Millwall (57), more than clinical Luton (57) and exactly the same amount as clinical Sunderland.

Sunderlands 68 goals obviously much more clinical goals so worth much much more than Swansea's 68 goals which were all just flukes or something.

Keep going with the stats, you're absolutely smashing it. Funny that 😂😂😂

 

Will have to disagree with you there. That's like arguing if we had provided che adams with the most shots in the premier league, the fact he then scored more goals would magically make him a better centre forward. Also, Swansea's record is GD of +4 with 64 goals conceded - the 5th worst in the league. So what you've got is a bunch of teams that finished higher with more clinical attackers that allowed them to better balance their defensive/attack in games. Which ofc is one of saints' main issues in recent seasons - our attackers can't finish and we're forced to be more open / chase games.

What might actually be of more interest from that is that our new manager is going to give us a lot of goals (at both ends) next season.

Anyway, sorry if the underlying stats offend you though - You're absolutely entitled to think we'll get promoted if we sign a striker of average finishing ability from the championship, go gung ho, and end the season with a +4GD. I was merely offering some caution on people's Piroe hopes 🙃 And if we do sign him, i look forward to those stats being proved wildly wrong and his finishing being top quality.

 

Edited by Saint86
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Im also not the biggest admirer of Piroe, I’ve written about my worry that he isn’t clinical enough in the Russell Martin thread but you are doing him a bit of a disservice tbh in the way you’ve butchered the stats… he just simply isn’t 93rd in npXg in the championship (he is infact in the top 9%) he also has outperformed his xG the last two years

FBref doesn’t compare against just the league they play in but against 8 other leagues, so its not the fairest of reflections… for instance Gyokeres has the same npXg as Piroe (0.40) snd I’d take him in a heartbeat.

For balance though, the stats do suggest that Piroe isn’t super clinical, infact his conversion has him in the 71st percentile and he takes an average of 6 shots per goal, for reference Akpom is 3 and Gyokeres is 4.25

Edit - Shots per 90;

Piroe - 2.38

gyokeres - 2.07

Akpom - 2.17

Not really a huge margin is it

Edited by Smirking_Saint
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5 minutes ago, Smirking_Saint said:

Im also not the biggest admirer of Piroe, I’ve written about my worry that he isn’t clinical enough in the Russell Martin thread but you are doing him a bit of a disservice tbh in the way you’ve butchered the stats… he just simply isn’t 93rd in npXg in the championship (he is infact in the top 9%) he also has outperformed his xG the last two years

FBref doesn’t compare against just the league they play in but against 8 other leagues, so its not the fairest of reflections… for instance Gyokeres has the same npXg as Piroe (0.40) snd I’d take him in a heartbeat.

For balance though, the stats do suggest that Piroe isn’t super clinical, infact his conversion has him in the 71st percentile and he takes an average of 6 shots per goal, for reference Akpom is 3 and Gyokeres is 4.25

 

To be fair, i just sorted by non penalty goals:xg for that one, which gives him as 91st 🤷‍♂️. Agree with you on his comparative rankings against similar players. Bottom line is I would have hoped we would be more ambitious. The other way to maybe look at it, is that if we aren't going to go super clinal in attack under Martin, maybe we'll be sorting out the defence to offset it.

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19 minutes ago, Saint86 said:

Will have to disagree with you there. That's like arguing if we had provided che adams with the most shots in the premier league, the fact he then scored more goals would magically make him a better centre forward.

This is just drivel and I have absolutely no idea what you are on about.

20 minutes ago, Saint86 said:

Also, Swansea's record is GD of +4 with 64 goals conceded - the 5th worst in the league. So what you've got is a bunch of teams that finished higher with more clinical attackers that allowed them to better balance their defensive/attack in games.

Quite aware of Swansea's poor defensive record but this is not the topic here. The topic is you making out that there are 92 players in the Championship, about 3 or 4 players per club, better at scoring goals than the fourth top scorer in the whole division. 

22 minutes ago, Saint86 said:

What might actually be of more interest from that is that our new manager is going to give us a lot of goals (at both ends) next season.

Again this has nothing to do with you going on about the fourth top scorer in the the division being the 93rd most clinical players. According to you there are 92 players more clinical than a man who scored 19 goals this season, even though only 3 more players actually scored more actual goals than he did.

Why didn't these 92 killer clinical strikers score more goals then?

Nice try at changing the subject though.

25 minutes ago, Saint86 said:

You're absolutely entitled to think we'll get promoted if we sign the 91st most clinical player in the championship

Nope, haven't said that or anything like it. Again, nice try at changing the subject.

 

Lay off the stats and try applying a bit of real world logic and perspective next time. Keep trying.

 

 

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9 hours ago, Saint86 said:

To be fair, i just sorted by non penalty goals:xg for that one, which gives him as 91st 🤷‍♂️. Agree with you on his comparative rankings against similar players. Bottom line is I would have hoped we would be more ambitious. The other way to maybe look at it, is that if we aren't going to go super clinal in attack under Martin, maybe we'll be sorting out the defence to offset it.

Thing is… the amount of shots he has had is contextual only to the tactics employed.. I havn’t watched Swansea enough to know how they play, Ive taken a more keen interest in Martins set ups etc but not watched any replays yet…Swansea are in the top 4 consistently for shots on target/per 90/in total over the season so clearly Martin see’s the need for his team to let the reigns off a little in the final third so I’m not really bothered that Piroe is one of the leading shot takers because clearly its an instruction to do so if he gets an opportunity

He is in the top 3% of the league for his shooting accuracy (55/92 on target) but again Id need to know the context ? Number of long range efforts vs short ? 
 

His most important stat though is that he has an xG of 12.88 for the season and he’s scored 19 (2 pens) so he is out performing his xG or to be precise, scoring the chances he should score and on top of that the harder chances too

Edited by Smirking_Saint
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Recent Athletic article suggested the Borges deal may be revisited in the summer. I thought that would be dead following relegation with other big european teams interested but perhaps Wilcox will be an important factor.

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11 hours ago, CB Fry said:

This is just drivel and I have absolutely no idea what you are on about.

Quite aware of Swansea's poor defensive record but this is not the topic here. The topic is you making out that there are 92 players in the Championship, about 3 or 4 players per club, better at scoring goals than the fourth top scorer in the whole division. 

Again this has nothing to do with you going on about the fourth top scorer in the the division being the 93rd most clinical players. According to you there are 92 players more clinical than a man who scored 19 goals this season, even though only 3 more players actually scored more actual goals than he did.

Why didn't these 92 killer clinical strikers score more goals then?

Nice try at changing the subject though.

Nope, haven't said that or anything like it. Again, nice try at changing the subject.

 

Lay off the stats and try applying a bit of real world logic and perspective next time. Keep trying.

 

 

Those are the raw stats - its up to you to interpret them but don't shoot the messenger because you don't like someone referencing them - just read on ;). You'll also see me make note of the fact that within the players ranked above him on that measure, there will be players with limited number of low xG shots yet scoring (i.e. free kicks, worldies, statistical outliers etc) - so i don't think that's where he literally sits for how clinical he is, but that his stats do suggest he isn't the most clinical striker in the league. Again, we'll just have to disagree.

Also, clinical strikers and their impact on tactical styles is clearly related, I'm not sure what you're arguing with there to be honest. Clinical strikers (such as ings for us vs Armstrong/ely/che) make a huge difference to how a team plays/performs. If you can score with every attack you don't need to be as open at the back. Swansea were extremely gung ho and created a lot of chances, but equally they only achieved a +4GD as they were too open at the back - and that won't get us promoted.

We're hiring a manager that is very attacking and open at the back with a team that's already demonstrated it can't defend and a keeper that is still very raw. We're likely losing our best central mids and defenders on top of that, and we then look to be signing a striker who is far from the most clinical in the 2nd tier. It doesn't inspire confidence currently. A fresh start, some positivity / winning mentality, and continuity in style (if we get to carry it up into the prem) is all good - but i can't see that Piroe is a significant improvement on paper over our two former champ strikers.

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5 minutes ago, Saint86 said:

Those are the raw stats - its up to you to interpret them but don't shoot the messenger because you don't like someone referencing them - just read on ;). You'll also see me make note of the fact that within the players ranked above him on that measure, there will be players with limited number of low xG shots yet scoring (i.e. free kicks, worldies, statistical outliers etc) - so i don't think that's where he literally sits for how clinical he is, but that his stats do suggest he isn't the most clinical striker in the league. Again, we'll just have to disagree.

Also, clinical strikers and their impact on tactical styles is clearly related, I'm not sure what you're arguing with there to be honest. Clinical strikers (such as ings for us vs Armstrong/ely/che) make a huge difference to how a team plays. If you can score with every attack you don't need to be as open at the back. Swansea were extremely gung ho and created a lot of chances, but equally they only achieved a +4GD as they were too open at the back - and that won't get us promoted. Other teams were more clinical with their finishing and had better balance as a result - which resulted in a better GD and more points overall.

We're hiring a manager that is very attacking and open at the back with a team that's already demonstrated it can't defend and a keeper that is still very raw. We're likely losing our best central mids and defenders on top of that, and we then look to be signing a striker who is far from the most clinical in the 2nd tier. It doesn't inspire confidence currently. A fresh start, some positivity / winning mentality, and continuity in style (if we get to carry it into the prem) - but i can't see that Piroe is a significant improvement on our two former champ strikers as an option going forward - or someone who can step up to the prem.

Piroe doesn’t need to step up to the Prem. If that’s our thinking we’re a bit ahead of ourselves. If he comes, gets us goals, we return to the Prem where he goes all AA on us then I’ll accept that!!

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13 hours ago, Turkish said:

Probably put together by the same stats people that somehow once said worked out Vestergaard was one of the top five centre backs in the premier league 

Vestergaard is so shit he didn't even win the "tallest CB in the premiership" award as on the day they measured all the players he decided stand to take the knee. 

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4 hours ago, Fabrice29 said:

Duk at Aberdeen might be one to keep an eye on. Clinical (the actual definition of clinical) too. 

On the subject of strikers who've played in Scotland.. How about Martins ex team mate, Alfredo Morelos. Just been released by Rangers.  

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4 hours ago, Fabrice29 said:

Duk at Aberdeen might be one to keep an eye on. Clinical (the actual definition of clinical) too. 

He’d be a bit safer at Staplewood now Rupert Lowe isn’t at the club.

Could be an option, he’s upset their fans by saying he only went there as a springboard to England. Obvious really but no need to say it.

Morelos and Kent released from Rangers, although they may get PL interest https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-12115089/Rangers-RELEASE-five-players-including-Alfredo-Morelos-Ryan-Kent-Allan-McGregor.html

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11 minutes ago, skintsaint said:

Kent would be a solid acquisition for the Championship. 

he looked great a couple of years ago. Not watched him since - has he not been any good or has he just allowed his contract to wind down so he can get the mega wages from a Prem side?

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With Martin as the incoming manager I really hope that the Board don't try to be clever at goalkeeper and centre back.  For the possession game to work we need to recruit reliable leaders, character, in both positions at the start of the window and build from there.  The whole spine needs to be set right, but a solid keeper and dominating CB (finished articles) early doors would show that some lessons have been learned and there is an actual plan in place. 

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13 minutes ago, Miltonaggro said:

With Martin as the incoming manager I really hope that the Board don't try to be clever at goalkeeper and centre back.  For the possession game to work we need to recruit reliable leaders, character, in both positions at the start of the window and build from there.  The whole spine needs to be set right, but a solid keeper and dominating CB (finished articles) early doors would show that some lessons have been learned and there is an actual plan in place. 

If you are looking for a possession based game, then a CB that can play would seem to be a higher priority than one that dominates. Not saying that's what I want us to bring in, but dominant CBs that are comfortable on the ball (in the championship) are pretty rare. 

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Just now, Chez said:

If you are looking for a possession based game, then a CB that can play would seem to be a higher priority than one that dominates. Not saying that's what I want us to bring in, but dominant CBs that are comfortable on the ball (in the championship) are pretty rare. 

Would probably settle for a genuine leader, who knows the ropes, maybe we might get two.  Think our CB exit is going to be like a revolving door.

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1 hour ago, Chez said:

If you are looking for a possession based game, then a CB that can play would seem to be a higher priority than one that dominates. Not saying that's what I want us to bring in, but dominant CBs that are comfortable on the ball (in the championship) are pretty rare. 

Reckon we might start the season with Stephens, Bednarek, Lyanco, and DCC as our 4 CBs.

LBs are Perruad/replacement, and then Larios and maybe small.

RBs will be tino plus KWP replacement (😰)

Entirely new CM incoming. Although i would badly love the club to just hold on to one of JWP/Lavia and Alcaraz.

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4 minutes ago, Saint86 said:

Reckon we might start the season with Stephens, Bednarek, Lyanco, and DCC as our 4 CBs.

LBs are Perruad/replacement, and then Larios and maybe small.

RBs will be tino plus KWP replacement (😰)

Entirely new CM incoming. Although i would badly love the club to just hold on to one of JWP/Lavia and Alcaraz.

Think DCC will be out the door pretty quickly. Could see Stephens, Bednarek, Lyanco and Simeu as the 4 but I also anticipate one of them leaving and us bringing someone fresh in.

If I had to guess - LBs would be Manning/Larios and RBs will be Livramento/Bree.

The CM situation is a bit scary though. Hopefully we keep hold of Alcaraz and Smallbone comes back, but you'd think we'd need at least 2. 

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On 22/05/2023 at 16:57, Turkish said:

Manning seems like a no brainer, he's free, knows the manager and we need a left back.

Grimes a good solid player at championship level and Piroe has a decent goal scoring record so if it happens that 3 decent bits of business. Definitely give us a bit more championship know how, along with using Bree more.

https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/sport/23540930.three-swansea-players-russell-martin-southampton-try-sign/?fbclid=IwAR1G17MfxFqxITXccxfinsvbls3dZzDmHZCyE9m6TlQtE3-phPT9YYIS3iE#j9ht3k8zwyo
 

Why don’t the echo put me on the payroll?

 

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1 minute ago, Fabrice29 said:

Saint Rob is an even bigger arse than that Andrew guy. Self proclaimed voice of the people. Proper nut job.

He thinks those signings would be 'sensible business' and he's also got an ear in at Swansea as he knows what they'll accept for 4 players. Who are we to argue with those views 

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30 minutes ago, Paul Chuckle said:

SaintRob has his finger on the pulse and believes we should be signing 4 players from Swansea as well as their manager. I for one trust his well scouted and excellent views on these things 

 

 

Not controversial enough for me, personally.

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4 hours ago, Chez said:

he looked great a couple of years ago. Not watched him since - has he not been any good or has he just allowed his contract to wind down so he can get the mega wages from a Prem side?

Ditto.

https://www.followfollow.com/forum/threads/did-we-get-value-for-money-from-ryan-kent.242366/

Seems like he didn't do too much the last year or so.

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15 minutes ago, Fabrice29 said:

Saint Rob is an even bigger arse than that Andrew guy. Self proclaimed voice of the people. Proper nut job.

Absolute helmet, I’ll never forget when he spent months slagging off the board (Rasmus, to be specific) but then was using his tongue like a sheet of Andrex when he met him at the fans forum. 
 

Has the sort of face you’d enjoy giving a dig. You’d have to wear a glove though as you’d walk away covered in puss. 

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That SaintRob guy is everything that is wrong with twitter, he seems to think he's some sort of celebrity and even got himself a fake tick.

Can't deny that he's a Saints fan, but there are ways to go about it and he's just painful.

Edited by S-Clarke
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35 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

That SaintRob guy is everything that is wrong with twitter, he seems to think he's some sort of celebrity and even got himself a fake tick.

Can't deny that he's a Saints fan, but there are ways to go about it and he's just painful.

This entirely. He’s an absolute bellend.

He hosts the Twitter spaces but tends to let his mates speak all the time rather than random listeners that also want to share their view.

The fake tick is hilarious. More money than sense clearly.  😂

Him and Andrew are on par with each other, but not in a positive way.

 

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8 hours ago, Dman said:

On the subject of strikers who've played in Scotland.. How about Martins ex team mate, Alfredo Morelos. Just been released by Rangers.  

He'll likely get a move to somewhere in Europe. Not that he would drop to the championship but we don't need another Lyanco-like nutjob who is a candidate for multiple red cards a season

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Does anyone think any of the young players out on loan will return and get a place in the squad next season, apart from Tella and Smallbone? 

What about Caleb Watts, Kegs Chauke, Dynel Simeu, Dan N’Lundulu, Kazeem Olaigabe, Thierry Small, Jack Bycroft?

Surely Watts, Olaigabe and Chauke can give us some depth in midfield.

And what about Jake Vokins - he’s already back from loan. Could he provide cover at left back?

And could Lewis Payne provide competition at right back?
 

 

 

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So which city players do you think we will sign and loan this season?

Harwood Bellis - Defence

Doyle - Defence

Borges - Winger

Mcatee - Midfield

Doyle - Midfield

All been out on loan this season and unlikely to have a long term home with City

 

 

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10 hours ago, Rebel said:

Does anyone think any of the young players out on loan will return and get a place in the squad next season, apart from Tella and Smallbone? 

What about Caleb Watts, Kegs Chauke, Dynel Simeu, Dan N’Lundulu, Kazeem Olaigabe, Thierry Small, Jack Bycroft?

Surely Watts, Olaigabe and Chauke can give us some depth in midfield.

And what about Jake Vokins - he’s already back from loan. Could he provide cover at left back?

And could Lewis Payne provide competition at right back?

https://www.southamptonfc.com/news/2023-05-09/loan-watch-southampton-football-club-9th-may-2023

Tella and Smallbone have had successful seasons at Championship level, and will walk right back into the squad (and probably the XI, depending on who leaves) if they want to.

Watts, Olaigbe, Chauke, and Simeu look borderline Champ/L1.

There are a handful of U20/U18 kids who will be looking for senior football somewhere too.

It all depends on who leaves and what the new manager is looking for. For example, if we lose Adams and Onuachu and the new manager wants two up front, there's room for a couple more strikers in the squad. If we keep our current four strikers and the new manager wants to play one up top in a 4-3-3, there isn't.

We also need to add some strength, experience, and leadership to the side somewhere. That would push some youngsters down the pecking order.

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17 minutes ago, chiknsmack said:

if we lose Adams and Onuachu and the new manager wants two up front, there's room for a couple more strikers in the squad. If we keep our current four strikers and the new manager wants to play one up top in a 4-3-3, there isn't. 

If we start next season with the same strikers and play one up front, then we'll know the big change in philosophy amd style that is needed for the challenge ahead has not happened. We need a refresh up there and a clinical striker to change the current narrative. Tella coming back would help.

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17 hours ago, Saint Matty 76 said:

Think DCC will be out the door pretty quickly. Could see Stephens, Bednarek, Lyanco and Simeu as the 4 but I also anticipate one of them leaving and us bringing someone fresh in.

If I had to guess - LBs would be Manning/Larios and RBs will be Livramento/Bree.

The CM situation is a bit scary though. Hopefully we keep hold of Alcaraz and Smallbone comes back, but you'd think we'd need at least 2. 

Ah yes Bree, forgot about him 😄

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I seem to recall a Rob that was asking questions at the Fans forum and claimed to be leading voice of the saints fanbase?

14 hours ago, Fabrice29 said:

Saint Rob is an even bigger arse than that Andrew guy. Self proclaimed voice of the people. Proper nut job.

Edited by Saint86
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13 hours ago, Rebel said:

Does anyone think any of the young players out on loan will return and get a place in the squad next season, apart from Tella and Smallbone? 

What about Caleb Watts, Kegs Chauke, Dynel Simeu, Dan N’Lundulu, Kazeem Olaigabe, Thierry Small, Jack Bycroft?

Surely Watts, Olaigabe and Chauke can give us some depth in midfield.

And what about Jake Vokins - he’s already back from loan. Could he provide cover at left back?

And could Lewis Payne provide competition at right back?
 

 

 

The only one I've watched a few times this season is Dan N'Lundulu, while he was at Cheltenham. And trust me, he was nowhere near their level (lower end League One) let alone what we need, sadly. A few friends are ST holders at Whaddon Road, and they were pleased to see the back of him.

He's scored 7 goals in 67 games whilst out on loan in League One over the last 2 seasons. That's 1 in every 9.6 games in League One (Shane Long was 1 in 7 for us in the Premier League, for reference) Given he will turn 25 next season too, im not sure there is a huge amount of 'potential' in him that we havent seen yet.

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