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Summer Transfer Window 2023


FarehamSaintJames

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Might seem a bit premature but with other threads of players potentially leaving and who we’d like to see retained/sent on their way, thought it might be an idea to get one up and running.

There’s a lot of decent Championship players out there who I’d like to see join: namely Gyokeres, Hamer and O’Hare, all of Coventry.

It’ll be interesting to see how we rebuild this summer as the core of the squad I imagine will be gone, and the deadwood on high wages will be no doubt loaned out.

The players who have done well on loan (Nathan Tella) I don’t see wanting a return, and why would he?

I’m sure it won’t be long until the rumour mill starts, probably the day after relegation is confirmed. 😂

Edited by FarehamSaintJames
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  On 04/03/2023 at 10:41, Saint NL said:

Weirdly I see the outgoings as more important than the incomings. 

 

One of the very few positives about getting relegated is the possibility to clear out all the deadwood. And there is a lot.

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Hopefully we can find new homes for our shite, that's going to be the hard bit. 

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I think we'll be able to find clubs to take our players but doubtful at a good price or favourable terms for us. With Bednarek, obviously Villa took him on loan but West Ham were also in the market for him so there were offers but also likely to be late in the window leaving us little/no time to replace. 

The three players I'd want to keep would be JWP, KWP and Lavia but they will be most likely to leave and have the most suitors.  

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  On 04/03/2023 at 10:41, Saint NL said:

Weirdly I see the outgoings as more important than the incomings. 

 

One of the very few positives about getting relegated is the possibility to clear out all the deadwood. And there is a lot.

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Why is it going to be any easier for us to clear out the deadwood after relegation?

They’re regarded as deadwood for a reason, and getting relegated isn’t going to make them any more attractive for someone to take them off our hands.  There is the possibility that a relegation  clause in their contracts might mean they won’t want to stay around for the reduced wage, but that in itself won’t see clubs queuing up for Ely, Djenepo and all. 

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  On 04/03/2023 at 14:49, Badger said:

Worry is that our scouting will be geared for Premiership so if we do, as likely, go down, have to hope Rasmus, Wilcox et al will be able to refocus that pretty rapidly. 

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Geared up for the premier league but signing championship level players so I wouldn’t worry too much 

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I suspect the summer transfer window will be all about thinning the squad, and repelling offers. Perhaps a new goalkeeper.

I expect Tella, Smallbone, Edozie and Larios to start featuring, and hopefully a returning Tino. That doesn't leave much room for new players.

Probably see a few shipped out. A & S Armstrong,Walcott. Diallo, Elyounoussi, Bendarek, Djenepo, McCarthy, Caballero.

In addition a quiet loans for DCC and Orsic.

Of course everything depends on league status.

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  On 05/03/2023 at 08:54, SotonianWill said:

could get a decent fee here off the saudis despite his contract situation, would happily sell him

 

though he’s certainly not the worst player and wouldnt be first on my list to go

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We have to accept that clubs like ours have to sell players. Low on my list to but a decent fee will help.

I suspect Adams will be in the same category.

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Try and ship out Lyanco, Bednarek, Diallo, Elyounoussie, Orsic (it seems like it’s sadly just not going to work out with him), Adam Armstrong, Djenepo, Bree and Mara.

Then try and get a left back, striker but first and foremost a new manager. 

And don’t let Rasmus anywhere near the recruitment and scouting of players. 

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Obviously, our summer targets and departures will depend on the league we are in.  And then what the ambition of the club is. Staying up and selling some players seems to be the extent of it at the moment. That’s success for the abject leadership we currently have. 

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  On 04/03/2023 at 10:41, Saint NL said:

Weirdly I see the outgoings as more important than the incomings. 

 

One of the very few positives about getting relegated is the possibility to clear out all the deadwood. And there is a lot.

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How is relegation an opportunity to get rid of the deadwood?  Do their contracts become null and void?

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  On 05/03/2023 at 19:29, Wade Garrett said:

How is relegation an opportunity to get rid of the deadwood?  Do their contracts become null and void?

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This is what people seem to be struggling with. The players that will leave will be the decent ones, Walker Peters, Ward Prowse, Lavia etc the ones left won’t be good enough for the premier league and on too much money for other championship club. So we’ll be stuck with deadwood rather than able to shift it. The idea that all these players thst got us relegated will be snapped up by others is laughable. Having spent years trying to shift a load of deadwood we’ve now lumbered ourselves with a shit load of new ones

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  On 05/03/2023 at 08:54, SotonianWill said:

could get a decent fee here off the saudis despite his contract situation, would happily sell him

 

though he’s certainly not the worst player and wouldnt be first on my list to go

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There is a tipping point and a key indicator of when to sell footballers, when their instagram posts have more pictures of them wearing clothes than playing it's time.

Examples

Lemina

Obefemi

Valery 

Now salisu

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  On 05/03/2023 at 19:29, Wade Garrett said:

How is relegation an opportunity to get rid of the deadwood?  Do their contracts become null and void?

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If we are relegated the 'dead wood' will cling to their contracts and stay, sucking us dry. The talented youngsters will be off in a flash. That's the way of relegation. But don't panic! We're going to stay up by beating Liverpool on the last day of the season.

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  On 05/03/2023 at 09:25, Dr. Kucho said:

Try and ship out Lyanco, Bednarek, Diallo, Elyounoussie, Orsic (it seems like it’s sadly just not going to work out with him), Adam Armstrong, Djenepo, Bree and Mara.

Then try and get a left back, striker but first and foremost a new manager. 

And don’t let Rasmus anywhere near the recruitment and scouting of players. 

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And choosing the next manager!

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  On 05/03/2023 at 19:29, Wade Garrett said:

How is relegation an opportunity to get rid of the deadwood?  Do their contracts become null and void?

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Indeed.  Guess the optimistic view is some of the deadwood might become alivewood upon being relegated to the league below.

Thinking players like AA, Diallo, Aribo etc. might find their level.

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  On 05/03/2023 at 19:29, Wade Garrett said:

How is relegation an opportunity to get rid of the deadwood?  Do their contracts become null and void?

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Most players will have clauses in their contracts that reduce their wages if we get relegated, which makes them more affordable for other clubs. The star players would of course be off, but I would expect the likes of Moi, Lyanco, Bednarek, Diallo etc to go abroad.

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I wonder if we will dive into South American recruiting - it seems clubs in England are beginning to tap this resource, in the PL with Brighton and other clubs, but also in the Championship - Norwich being an example of a couple of players coming over from Brazil and Chile and making an impact (Sara and Nuñez). 

Celtic seem to get bang for buck recruiting in Asia as well which is an interesting reference. 

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  On 05/03/2023 at 20:07, Convict Colony said:

There is a tipping point and a key indicator of when to sell footballers, when their instagram posts have more pictures of them wearing clothes than playing it's time.

Examples

Lemina

Obefemi

Valery 

Now salisu

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What a bizarre view. Because I don't post about work on my Instagram account I should be shipped out?

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You can comfortably list the ones that’ll be out/or at least on the way out:
Orsic, DCC, Onuachu, Sulemana, Lavia, KWP, Aribo, S. Armstrong, A, Armstrong etc.

Anyone that signed last summer has 100% got release clauses in their most likely.
Plus the squad trimming of the deadwood, including anyone that has only a year left.

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I'd be surprised if we were forced to sell anyone to be honest, might be some relegation release clauses that get triggered but not sure if they will have them.

People seem to think that relegated teams have this mass clear out and get picked clean of any good players but looking at other teams this doesn't seem to happen. I mean Mitrovic would be our best striker if he was at our club, but he got relegated with Fulham twice and is still there. Norwich still have people like Aarons and Pukki, Watford still have Sarr, the main issue comes with people with contracts running down are less likely to re-sign, but even staying in the league there is no guarantee of that anyway (Ings for example).

I'd expect most of the people who were signed last year or this Jan to still be here next season, unless the club decides they do not want them. 

Maybe someone like Lavia will go, but he won't be cheap (again unless release clause) so that may put clubs off, same with JWP, still has 4 years on a contract IIRC, we wouldn't sell cheap and I also think he is the type of player who would probably give it a season to see if we bounce back. 

Salisu is probably one because of the contract issue.  All the new guys will have 3,4, even 5 years on their contracts so won't go cheaply and that seems to put other clubs off. 

What we do have is a squad that is probably too big now, like 30 senior players and likely in the Championship we would want to give chances to more youngsters, and from what Selles has been saying about some players needing to 'step up', and then the terrible performance against Grimsby, some of those players who now don't play for the rest of the season are likely to be culled. 

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If we go down, anyone with a year left I think will likely go.

The squad is so bloated at the moment, and some of the signings have just been a bit bizarre.
I genuinely feel like Orsic and Onuachu were signed more as a “We screwed this massively, let’s just rush and get these players for these positions”.
But equally why sanction them if you’re considering sacking Nathan Jones (which they must’ve been at the time) when neither are of the age of the club “ethos” and also when one is seventeen feet high and won’t be able to press. 🤷🏻‍♂️

As I’ve said above you can already loosely work out who will be here and who will be on their way out.

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  On 08/03/2023 at 11:31, tajjuk said:

I'd be surprised if we were forced to sell anyone to be honest, might be some relegation release clauses that get triggered but not sure if they will have them.

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Eh?

Of the players we want to keep, we'll be forced to sell Salisu and KWP - simply because they're contracts are expiring. KWP especially will be a massive loss, the guy is class and should be featuring more for England.

If we go down, there will likely be one big money departure - Lavia or JWP in my book. Selles has already alluded to Lavia having his eyes on the exit and he has been heavily linked with a move - can take it pretty much for granted that he will be gone for circa £40M+ in the summer if we are relegated. Hopefully a bit more, and maybe £50M-£60M if we survive.

I think it will be lavia that goes - and the plus side is that is probably the main key players that we will be pressured to lose. However, there will still likely be an open point running throughout the summer over JWP and whether the club should let him move under the right terms should we be relegated.

Given how much of a tight ship we have been over the past 3-4 years, you would like to think that basically the entire squad has relegation clauses relating to wages/bonus etc. Hopefully that will mitigate the impact of relegation.

Agree broadly with your point about most of the new signings - they should all have long contracts, and provided we secure a swift promotion, they will retain their value - a lot may well even benefit from playing successfully at the lower level.

In summation, we'll sell players to cover the drop in income (i expect 1 major sale to be part of this), and we'll sell the ones we're forced to due to the contract situations. 

Edited by Saint86
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  On 06/03/2023 at 14:22, FarehamSaintJames said:

You can comfortably list the ones that’ll be out/or at least on the way out:
Orsic, DCC, Onuachu, Sulemana, Lavia, KWP, Aribo, S. Armstrong, A, Armstrong etc.

Anyone that signed last summer has 100% got release clauses in their most likely.
Plus the squad trimming of the deadwood, including anyone that has only a year left.

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January you mean? I doubt that relegation release clauses were on the table last summer

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Imo...

75-100% chance of being sold if we're relegated - JWP, KWP, Lavia and Salisu (given his contract situation)

50-75% - ABK, Sulemana, Diallo and Che (last two out of contract in 2024)

Less than 50% - everybody else other than those out of contract

Out of contract - Willy, Elyounoussi, Walcott and AMN end of loan

We could be left with a void of about 10/11 players, which potentially isnt a bad thing if we're looking a reset. Also, athough relegation will leave us in a weaker negotiating positions, our best assets have quite some time to run on their contracts - JWP, ABK (2026), Lavia, Sulemana (2027)

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  On 08/03/2023 at 18:53, woodsaint1 said:

Imo...

75-100% chance of being sold if we're relegated - JWP, KWP, Lavia and Salisu (given his contract situation)

50-75% - ABK, Sulemana, Diallo and Che (last two out of contract in 2024)

Less than 50% - everybody else other than those out of contract

Out of contract - Willy, Elyounoussi, Walcott and AMN end of loan

We could be left with a void of about 10/11 players, which potentially isnt a bad thing if we're looking a reset. Also, athough relegation will leave us in a weaker negotiating positions, our best assets have quite some time to run on their contracts - JWP, ABK (2026), Lavia, Sulemana (2027)

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Why would we voluntarily go from a squad of nearly 30 to 10, despite being in a financially secure position, and despite having a significant number of those players tied to long term contracts as investments 😅.

We will sell the players we have to sell (e.g. contract expiry), players we want rid of (e.g. Orsic - I speculate), and then maybe one or 2 others (as necessary) to cover any financial shortfalls / fund restructuring. 

Edited by Saint86
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  On 05/03/2023 at 09:25, Dr. Kucho said:

Try and ship out Lyanco, Bednarek, Diallo, Elyounoussie, Orsic (it seems like it’s sadly just not going to work out with him), Adam Armstrong, Djenepo, Bree and Mara.

Then try and get a left back, striker but first and foremost a new manager. 

And don’t let Rasmus anywhere near the recruitment and scouting of players. 

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I’d be more worried we let the useless nerds in our current recruitment department stay in control. Most of those players above you listed came through our infamous black box berks. 

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  On 08/03/2023 at 12:56, Saint86 said:

Eh?

Of the players we want to keep, we'll be forced to sell Salisu and KWP - simply because they're contracts are expiring. KWP especially will be a massive loss, the guy is class and should be featuring more for England.

If we go down, there will likely be one big money departure - Lavia or JWP in my book. Selles has already alluded to Lavia having his eyes on the exit and he has been heavily linked with a move - can take it pretty much for granted that he will be gone for circa £40M+ in the summer if we are relegated. Hopefully a bit more, and maybe £50M-£60M if we survive.

I think it will be lavia that goes - and the plus side is that is probably the main key players that we will be pressured to lose. However, there will still likely be an open point running throughout the summer over JWP and whether the club should let him move under the right terms should we be relegated.

Given how much of a tight ship we have been over the past 3-4 years, you would like to think that basically the entire squad has relegation clauses relating to wages/bonus etc. Hopefully that will mitigate the impact of relegation.

Agree broadly with your point about most of the new signings - they should all have long contracts, and provided we secure a swift promotion, they will retain their value - a lot may well even benefit from playing successfully at the lower level.

In summation, we'll sell players to cover the drop in income (i expect 1 major sale to be part of this), and we'll sell the ones we're forced to due to the contract situations. 

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I said that though, we'd be forced to sell them anyway staying up or going down, just going down makes re-signing a contract less likely but we didn't go down when Ings refused to sign a contract for example which basically forced our hand to cash in on him.

Beyond any of those I don't think we will sell anyone we don't particularly want to, I don't think unless the bids are right someone like JWP or Lavia will go, again I look to other big names that relegated like Mitrovic and Sarr, stayed with their clubs. Lavia may want to go but unless a release clause is triggered I don't think we'll agree to sell him unless a big fee comes in and that then becomes more limiting, I mean we all talked through in the summer about JWP, when you start talking about the fees we would likely accept, then the number of clubs becomes very small and their priorities may be elsewhere. For example Chelsea have spent a fortune, have loads of midfielders and likely will be restricted more by lack of champs league. They may have been sniffing around Lavia at £50 million plus, but since spent like £250 million in Jan including £100 million on a player who basically plays a similar position. Liverpool need midfielders, but one will they have the cash, and would their fans accept spending £40-50 million on a guy with one PL season where he got relegated, probably not and that is why they are more courting players like Bellingham. Man City have this fine/punishment thing hanging over him and it would be odd for them to sell him for £10 million and by him back for £40 million one season later even if the buy back is activated now. Reports of Spurs wanting JWP, but again I can't see our valuation dropping even with relegation so are they going to stump up the £50-60 million? Clubs across Europe unless the elite of the elite just don't have the cash and I can't see Bayern or Real or Barca etc. going for any of our players. 

Also like you say, unless the club have been very stupid, we should have relegation clauses on wages, which together with the richer owner, financial stability, and parachute payments should mean there is no immediate need to sell assets. Even more so if we sell a few unwanted squad players which will have to happen to trim that squad down anyway as its too big (and seemingly some players have basically pissed people at the club off with their below par performances). 

Plus selling Salisu and KWP if they don't sign new contracts, should still net us £30-40 million alone. I could easily see us selling £50-60 million worth of players but still keeping most of the core of the squad. 

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  On 09/03/2023 at 01:48, Saint86 said:

Why would we voluntarily go from a squad of nearly 30 to 10, despite being in a financially secure position, and despite having a significant number of those players tied to long term contracts as investments 😅.

We will sell the players we have to sell (e.g. contract expiry), players we want rid of (e.g. Orsic - I speculate), and then maybe one or 2 others (as necessary) to cover any financial shortfalls / fund restructuring. 

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Eh? I said ' we could be left with a void of 10/11 players', meaning we would still be left with around 20 players, not 10 🤦

Add a few new signings and you're in the mid 20s for squad size which feels right

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