January Transfer Window

[coalman]

2 minutes ago, Chez said:

not sure they do, do they?

They don't. It's an average of everyone who has been in that position which can give an indication of a player who may be good at finishing or otherwise.  Plus the actual value is decided by a human based on a set of guidelines which is why different sources will give different xG for the same game (as we saw for the Pompey match on Sunday). Even discounting the fact it's an average of averages, the human element means it's about as far from a measure you might use to make real world decisions as you can get. At best it might give an indication whether you were in the game and whether the scoreline is flattering or whether you need to understand why it has happened.

[Chez]

1 hour ago, Matthew Le God said:

He is prolific at this level.

97 goals in 271 games. 11 in 29 this season. Is 1 in 3 prolific? Maybe. IMO he should have about 14 or 15 this season. He hasn't scored as many as he should. But finding someone that would have scored those 15 goals is the challenge. I certainly don't want to see him sold until the summer at least. Finding the right partner for him is key and a bigger reason for our struggles.

 

 

[VectisSaint]

Just now, Chez said:

97 goals in 271 games. 11 in 29 this season. Is 1 in 3 prolific? Maybe. IMO he should have about 14 or 15 this season. He hasn't scored as many as he should. But finding someone that would have scored those 15 goals is the challenge. I certainly don't want to see him sold until the summer at least. Finding the right partner for him is key and a bigger reason for our struggles.

 

 

His main issue is not the total number of goals (and assists), but that he goes long periods with little or no involvement. What is it now, 1 assist in 10 games,.at the beginning of the season 1 goal, no assists in first 8 games. In between, 7 goals, 3 assists in 7 games. A real purple patch, with long periods of next to nothing. Was his purple patch because we were playing well, or did his purple patch drive our team's good results. To me he isn't a driving force, he is reactive to how we perform. This season not so much but 2 years ago very few of his goals were critical, i.e. they didn't win a game or earn a point from a losing position, they were often just icing on the cake.

All that said, we really should not be offloading him this season, because there is no one who could do what he does for us in the medium term (hopefully).

[Turkish]

16 minutes ago, Chez said:

97 goals in 271 games. 11 in 29 this season. Is 1 in 3 prolific? Maybe. IMO he should have about 14 or 15 this season. He hasn't scored as many as he should. But finding someone that would have scored those 15 goals is the challenge. I certainly don't want to see him sold until the summer at least. Finding the right partner for him is key and a bigger reason for our struggles.

 

 

He’s missed a lot of big chances this season that previously he’d have taken at this level. Missed a couple of 1 v 1 at Blackburn to put us 2 up, missed one sunday to name but 2 games many more. Looks like he’s lacking confidence to me. 

[Lord Duckhunter]

2 hours ago, Matthew Le God said:

He is prolific at this level.

Load of old pony. 
 

He misses too many easy chances to be “prolific”. Apart from a purple patch when Tonda first took over, he’s been pony this season. Part of the problem, not the solution….

[Chez]

10 minutes ago, Turkish said:

He’s missed a lot of big chances this season that previously he’d have taken at this level. Missed a couple of 1 v 1 at Blackburn to put us 2 up, missed one sunday to name but 2 games many more. Looks like he’s lacking confidence to me. 

Agreed. Possibly has been all season. It's not a total loss of confidence, but he's not flying.

Wrexham first game of the season he had several half decent chances and it's continued. He blows hot and cold. Somedays he is shooting straight at the keeper, others he is pinging the one chance he gets in the bottom corner. Very inconsistent, but at this level it tough to find players with the quality and then get them the chances they need.

[Big M]

I can't see us signing anyone,why bother,we don't have the consistency to make and stay in the top six,and then with less money coming in where does that leave us?Arma is on 60k a week allegedly so I'm sure they want him to go to Wrexham and off the wage bill,and then in the summer offers will come in for Fellows,scienza,which SR will accept... unfortunately we are championship for the foreseeable.

[Willo of Whiteley]

Adam Armstrong is not bang average, certainly not at this level.

Also where is all this guff that “his heart isn’t in it?” Has anyone had a conversation about it? Has someone on this forum spoken to him about it?

You could argue that throughout all of this shit through the past couple of years he’s been the most professional out of Russell Martin’s minions. 

He hasn’t kicked up a fuss.
He hasn’t asked to leave.
He hasn’t downed tools.

Yes, he got loaned out, was that his choice or was he pushed. You don’t know. But he wasn’t playing games at the time. So if I was in his position I’d want to go and play.

I don’t know what people were expecting him to do in a failing team last season.
In order for a team to score goals he had to first of all, start the game; and secondly, have the support of the team to get the ball forward.
When you play a back five and play as a lone striker what are you expecting?

Ronaldo he isn’t, and never will be. But we should be pleased we have a player of his ability in our squad.

Those wishing him out need to have a look back at the goals he has scored for us these past few years, even two months ago. He is very much a confidence player.
Very good on both feet, has scored plenty of one on ones, unfortunately people will always remember the negatives.

Edited 15 hours ago by Willo of Whiteley

[SaintsRoyalty]

Sorry but how the actual fuck are the owners of Atletico Madrid investing £48m into Wrexham for only 10%?! They worth £480m??? Just when you think football has produced the ultimate bad boss of vile corrupt unjust putridness along comes a new one to take crown. Fucking hate this club with a passion.

[UpweySaint]

5 minutes ago, Big M said:

I can't see us signing anyone,why bother,we don't have the consistency to make and stay in the top six,and then with less money coming in where does that leave us?Arma is on 60k a week allegedly so I'm sure they want him to go to Wrexham and off the wage bill,and then in the summer offers will come in for Fellows,scienza,which SR will accept... unfortunately we are championship for the foreseeable.

Sports Republic have made some poor decisions but the implication they are asset stripping the club or even making money from it is false. They’ve invested in the club. If you have evidence otherwise please share it?

Personally I can’t see Armstrong going this month without a ridiculous offer. The squad can’t withstand his loss. In the summer? Sure. I think he’s good but we could do better and an exit may suit all parties if the price is right.

[Lee On Solent Saint]

3 hours ago, Matthew Le God said:

He is prolific at this level.

If you say so.

[Starksj1995]

Less than a week to go in the window, who are we going to sign?

[trousers]

18 minutes ago, Starksj1995 said:

Less than a week to go in the window, who are we going to sign?

Given it's Sport Republic doing the signing, one would assume a 20 year old 'project' from Lichtenstein...

[Badger]

7 minutes ago, trousers said:

Given it's Sport Republic doing the signing, one would assume a 20 year old 'project' from Lichtenstein...

Or another ‘B’ list Brazilian to be loaned to Goztepe. 

[Willo of Whiteley]

23 minutes ago, Badger said:

Or another ‘B’ list Brazilian to be loaned to Goztepe. 

Multi-club model masterclass

[Saint Pete]

9 hours ago, UpweySaint said:

Sports Republic have made some poor decisions but the implication they are asset stripping the club or even making money from it is false. They’ve invested in the club. If you have evidence otherwise please share it?

Personally I can’t see Armstrong going this month without a ridiculous offer. The squad can’t withstand his loss. In the summer? Sure. I think he’s good but we could do better and an exit may suit all parties if the price is right.

Yes, I think the sensible thing with Armstrong is to sell in the summer if he wants to go. Selling now only makes sense if we are very confident of signing someone who can do at least as good a job in this window and I don't think that's the case. We can't sign another Downs type in his place or we will sail very close to relegation. In theory it should be a little easier to find an adequate replacement who can do a good job in this league in the summer. 

Edited 5 hours ago by Saint Pete

[Charlie Wayman]

4 hours ago, Matthew Le God said:

He is prolific in this league. That isn't 'bang average'.

Prolific at what? Prolific ia an adjective not a noun.

[SNSUN]

You know why I would be happy selling AA? Yes he has scored goals at this level but he's proved he can't do it at the next level. Yes, it could be a mistake losing someone who has, for a season and a half at this level, been our top scorer but I'd rather build for the future and get a team together that can compete in the Prem. Otherwise, besides treading water,  there's no point being in this League.

We want to get back to the Prem, but more importantly, we want to be able to compete when we get there. The likes of AA aren't part of that. As crap as SR's decisions are, we do know they have the ability to spot a deal with the likes of Scienza and Jander. More of those kinds of decisions (I'm not holding my breath) and we may just be able to build a team that can both get promoted and try and stay there. 

[Appy]

2 hours ago, Starksj1995 said:

Less than a week to go in the window, who are we going to sign?

An emotional return for Albert Gronbaek

[Patrick Bateman]

1 minute ago, Appy said:

An emotional return for Albert Gronbaek

I heard Matt Oakley. 

[Saint86]

1 hour ago, SNSUN said:

You know why I would be happy selling AA? Yes he has scored goals at this level but he's proved he can't do it at the next level. Yes, it could be a mistake losing someone who has, for a season and a half at this level, been our top scorer but I'd rather build for the future and get a team together that can compete in the Prem. Otherwise, besides treading water,  there's no point being in this League.

We want to get back to the Prem, but more importantly, we want to be able to compete when we get there. The likes of AA aren't part of that. As crap as SR's decisions are, we do know they have the ability to spot a deal with the likes of Scienza and Jander. More of those kinds of decisions (I'm not holding my breath) and we may just be able to build a team that can both get promoted and try and stay there. 

Yeah... you're right. lets sell him and free up funds to make room for the next Brereton Diaz, Cam Archer, Ross Stewart, or Damion Downs. Or maybe we can spend a summer flirting with the next Gakpo only to sign the next Mara...

Edited 11 hours ago by Saint86

[coalman]

5 hours ago, SNSUN said:

You know why I would be happy selling AA? Yes he has scored goals at this level but he's proved he can't do it at the next level. Yes, it could be a mistake losing someone who has, for a season and a half at this level, been our top scorer but I'd rather build for the future and get a team together that can compete in the Prem. Otherwise, besides treading water,  there's no point being in this League.

We want to get back to the Prem, but more importantly, we want to be able to compete when we get there. The likes of AA aren't part of that. As crap as SR's decisions are, we do know they have the ability to spot a deal with the likes of Scienza and Jander. More of those kinds of decisions (I'm not holding my breath) and we may just be able to build a team that can both get promoted and try and stay there. 

This for me. We keep rebuilding around a core of players we know can't step up to the next level. Years of poor recruitment mean we don't have the senior players to build a team around. Just whatever is left after we've sold our best.

Armstrong is ok in the Championship. He will bring goals but it's rare he can take a game by the scruff of the neck like Charlton. And that requires the other team to back off and give him space.

We know he's no good as a lone striker yet our revolving door of managers seem need to relearn for themselves. Our formation leaves him isolated and doesn't get the best out of him. He won't get on the end of many crosses and is at his best with through balls to feet or pouncing on 2nd balls. He'll run his socks off but we don't press as a team and haven't for some time. We could say this about so much of our squad - we aren't playing to their strengths.

He's taken 33 penalties and missed 8 and he's had more shots than anyone in the league. It's not just that he's not clinical for me. Many times he shoots from impossible angles when there are better options. He is supposedly a senior player but as captain he's been anonymous.

My fear is we'll do what we did with Jack and renew him because he's all we've got left because we are so fucking terrible at finding strikers. Our inability to recruit in that position means we've gone from Ings to Che to Armstrong to Archer(?). This is the culture we have - sticking with what we know because that's the best we can do even though what we know has been proven not to be good enough for what we want. With a growing stable of not good enough players either on the bench or on loan offering no real competition to each other for places in an environment we aren't playing to their strengths.

The argument that we can't do better or he's good enough is just a sign of our managed decline. If we're to get back to the Premier League we've got to have more ambition to that. Armstrong is a hard working pro who has been a good servant to the club but if we have aspirations to be better we can't sleepwalk into thinking the status quo will get us where we want to go.

[Forester]

12 hours ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

Load of old pony. 
 

He misses too many easy chances to be “prolific”. Apart from a purple patch when Tonda first took over, he’s been pony this season. Part of the problem, not the solution….

“Pony”?  The last three seasons he has played a full year in the championship (this season, two years ago when promoted and then his last year at Blackburn) he has been in the top two or three goal scorers in the entire division.  Assuming each club has four strikers, that means he is in the top two per cent.  He also scored the only goal in the play off final when it counted.

 

In what other work of life would you get anything other than accolades for being in the top two per cent?

[Fitzhugh Fella]

14 hours ago, Matthew Le God said:

He is prolific at this level.

Define prolific and even if he once was he aint now

[StrangelyBrown]

19 minutes ago, Forester said:

“Pony”?  The last three seasons he has played a full year in the championship (this season, two years ago when promoted and then his last year at Blackburn) he has been in the top two or three goal scorers in the entire division.  Assuming each club has four strikers, that means he is in the top two per cent.  He also scored the only goal in the play off final when it counted.

 

In what other work of life would you get anything other than accolades for being in the top two per cent?

How many chances did he have and what percentage of shots did he score? I agree his output has been prolific but he's required a heck of a lot of chances to achieve that output. In the PL chances are harder to come by which is why I think he'll never be good enough to make the step up.

You could argue that he makes those chances with his movement etc, but equally you could argue that the team has been geared up to try and take advantage of his pace and movement.

A more natural striker would have scored a lot more with those chances and I suspect this is what SR thought Archer would be.

For me it's time to move on and start building a team for tomorrow.

[Willo of Whiteley]

When people start bringing percentages and XG into the argument, they’ve lost. 😂

[Chez]

Is there no market for Archer? Surely someone would fancy him on loan.

[Turkish]

9 minutes ago, Willo of Whiteley said:

When people start bringing percentages and XG into the argument, they’ve lost. 😂

Funny how Tonda was quick to point to XG when we lost at home to Hull the other day because it was better than theirs but hasn’t mentioned it the last two games when it was worse and we’ve got 4 points 😂

[SaintsRoyalty]

Birmingham have just outbid Ajax for a player. £7m outlay for a club that hasn’t been in the premier league for 15 years.
 

Meanwhile at this club who were in the prem last year and who are £74m up on player trading this year there is not a single rumour or penny spent all window. Make it make sense.

[Turkish]

Just now, SaintsRoyalty said:

Birmingham have just outbid Ajax for a player. £7m outlay for a club that hasn’t been in the premier league for 15 years.
 

Meanwhile at this club who were in the prem last year and who are £74m up on player trading this year there is not a single rumour or penny spent all window. Make it make sense.

Been this way for years though hasn't it. When we were in the premier league despite having years more Premier league money than the like Brighton, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Fulham they were all spending bigger than us on players whilst we persisted with trying to beat the system, bloating the squad out with 15m players or YHGTIers. We've been in decline for 10 years as we've persisted with this model SR have just taken it up a few levels. Stock piling crap players that no one else wants and in some cases have to pay to leave. When will the data tell them that it's failed?

[MarkSFC]

5 minutes ago, Turkish said:

Been this way for years though hasn't it. When we were in the premier league despite having years more Premier league money than the like Brighton, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Fulham they were all spending bigger than us on players whilst we persisted with trying to beat the system, bloating the squad out with 15m players or YHGTIers. We've been in decline for 10 years as we've persisted with this model SR have just taken it up a few levels. Stock piling crap players that no one else wants and in some cases have to pay to leave. When will the data tell them that it's failed?

All this started with Reed and his public interview explaining why we "cant or couldnt" spend more than about 15m on players. This attitude or approach has just stuck and as player values have increased our spending has stayed put and even reduced meaning less quality for the same money. As you've stated those clubs like BHA and BFC etc have spent higher and so get better quality.

If you do what you've always done, youll get what you've always got (or worse). 

SR and all the decision makers need to sort their heads out or get out. Otherwise and zi predict this will be be the reality, we will remain in this league for many years or at best become a yo-yo club.  

[Turkish]

3 minutes ago, MarkSFC said:

All this started with Reed and his public interview explaining why we "cant or couldnt" spend more than about 15m on players. This attitude or approach has just stuck and as player values have increased our spending has stayed put and even reduced meaning less quality for the same money. As you've stated those clubs like BHA and BFC etc have spent higher and so get better quality.

If you do what you've always done, youll get what you've always got (or worse). 

SR and all the decision makers need to sort their heads out or get out. Otherwise and zi predict this will be be the reality, we will remain in this league for many years or at best become a yo-yo club.  

It isn't even really about spending big. There are loads of players out there that cost less than 10m, well within our supposed price range, that could have come in and done a good job for a few years. The issue has been that it's always about resale value rather than buying a player for now. The Baz situation is ridiculous, expecting a young goalkeeper to come into the premier league and thrive when they've never played above league One level. The centre back situation is ridiculous, look at how much has been spent and players we've gone though trying to find the new Van Dijk. For all their talk about being a player trading company you can only really point to two players in the 4 years they've been here that have been a success.

[saintant]

5 hours ago, coalman said:

This for me. We keep rebuilding around a core of players we know can't step up to the next level. Years of poor recruitment mean we don't have the senior players to build a team around. Just whatever is left after we've sold our best.

Armstrong is ok in the Championship. He will bring goals but it's rare he can take a game by the scruff of the neck like Charlton. And that requires the other team to back off and give him space.

We know he's no good as a lone striker yet our revolving door of managers seem need to relearn for themselves. Our formation leaves him isolated and doesn't get the best out of him. He won't get on the end of many crosses and is at his best with through balls to feet or pouncing on 2nd balls. He'll run his socks off but we don't press as a team and haven't for some time. We could say this about so much of our squad - we aren't playing to their strengths.

He's taken 33 penalties and missed 8 and he's had more shots than anyone in the league. It's not just that he's not clinical for me. Many times he shoots from impossible angles when there are better options. He is supposedly a senior player but as captain he's been anonymous.

My fear is we'll do what we did with Jack and renew him because he's all we've got left because we are so fucking terrible at finding strikers. Our inability to recruit in that position means we've gone from Ings to Che to Armstrong to Archer(?). This is the culture we have - sticking with what we know because that's the best we can do even though what we know has been proven not to be good enough for what we want. With a growing stable of not good enough players either on the bench or on loan offering no real competition to each other for places in an environment we aren't playing to their strengths.

The argument that we can't do better or he's good enough is just a sign of our managed decline. If we're to get back to the Premier League we've got to have more ambition to that. Armstrong is a hard working pro who has been a good servant to the club but if we have aspirations to be better we can't sleepwalk into thinking the status quo will get us where we want to go.

Rebuild with a lot more physicality, power and pace and we might just build a side capable of surviving in the Premier League. Continue to recruit small guys who are easy to knock off the ball and we have no chance.

[beatlesaint]

14 hours ago, Willo of Whiteley said:

Adam Armstrong is not bang average, certainly not at this level.

Also where is all this guff that “his heart isn’t in it?” Has anyone had a conversation about it? Has someone on this forum spoken to him about it?

You could argue that throughout all of this shit through the past couple of years he’s been the most professional out of Russell Martin’s minions. 

He hasn’t kicked up a fuss.
He hasn’t asked to leave.
He hasn’t downed tools.

Yes, he got loaned out, was that his choice or was he pushed. You don’t know. But he wasn’t playing games at the time. So if I was in his position I’d want to go and play.

I don’t know what people were expecting him to do in a failing team last season.
In order for a team to score goals he had to first of all, start the game; and secondly, have the support of the team to get the ball forward.
When you play a back five and play as a lone striker what are you expecting?

Ronaldo he isn’t, and never will be. But we should be pleased we have a player of his ability in our squad.

Those wishing him out need to have a look back at the goals he has scored for us these past few years, even two months ago. He is very much a confidence player.
Very good on both feet, has scored plenty of one on ones, unfortunately people will always remember the negatives.

I agree with what you say BUT do we know for certain that he hasn't kicked up a fuss or asked to leave ?

As for downing tools.......umm......he was the one who came out with that fkin stupid statement when Still was here about not giving 100%

If Armstrong is played correctly he will score goals, RM proved that. He's no good on his own up front through the middle. 

[BARCELONASAINT]

AA is not young, hungry or likely to improve......time to move on, there are definite signs his appetite has gone and he's had his fill of Saints.

[Saint86]

3 hours ago, Forester said:

“Pony”?  The last three seasons he has played a full year in the championship (this season, two years ago when promoted and then his last year at Blackburn) he has been in the top two or three goal scorers in the entire division.  Assuming each club has four strikers, that means he is in the top two per cent.  He also scored the only goal in the play off final when it counted.

 

In what other work of life would you get anything other than accolades for being in the top two per cent?

Don't be using stats to justify a player's performance in football on here mate, you'll get lynched 😄😄🫣.

Edited 47 minutes ago by Saint86

[ally_uk]

Didn't someone say we were in for Lorent Tolaj? 

[DT]

Could a lack of spending this window indicate that SR are throwing in the towel and preparing to sell up while they can?

Certainly seems to be bad morale, toxic atmosphere, cliques and players wanting out. Not a recipe for any success.

Need to start from first principles. Manager with experience who gets to the basics, plays decent formation, doesn't receive his orders from a TedTalk twat and leads a team which has physicality, fitness, and willingness to attack, old school.

So fed up with the Poundland Pep approach.

Edited 37 minutes ago by DT

[Matthew Le God]

2 hours ago, Fitzhugh Fella said:

Define prolific and even if he once was he aint now

He is out of his depth in the Premier League. But dismissing him in the Championship is ridiculous.

He is the current 2nd top scorer in the league! He was also the 2nd top scorer in his last full Championship season.

79 goals in his last 177 Championship games (5 seasons). Roughly a goal just over every two games is a very good record in the Championship.

Edited 34 minutes ago by Matthew Le God

[S-Clarke]

1 minute ago, DT said:

Could a lack of spending this window indicate that SR are throwing in the towel and preparing to sell up while they can?

I'd say it's mainly due to this season being done, so there's very little point in spending anything at this juncture. It's one of the few times I'd agree with this approach, what would we gain from a splurge at this point? A late, but ultimately failed attempt at the playoffs? And then a pretty bleak financial picture (if it isn't bleak enough already) to broach in the summer.

Clever loans are the way to go at this point, then re-asses in the summer. My genuine concern (and likelihood tbh) is that they'll reassess in the summer with the wrong people in charge (again), so it'll just be like groundhog day.

[obelisk]

Had we come away from Fratton with 3 points and then done the same at Stoke this weekend then there might have been a chance to close in on those play-off places thus making an attacking addition to the squad desirable. But we didn't and probably won't on Saturday either so dabbling in the market right now has pretty much become a pointless waste of time. Given the lack of rumours I'd suggest that is the SR position.

[Fitzhugh Fella]

35 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said:

He is out of his depth in the Premier League. But dismissing him in the Championship is ridiculous.

He is the current 2nd top scorer in the league! He was also the 2nd top scorer in his last full Championship season.

79 goals in his last 177 Championship games (5 seasons). Roughly a goal just over every two games is a very good record in the Championship.

Unlike you I place less emphasis on stats when forming an opinion. His minuses have overtaken his pluses this season. We need a complete rebuild and if we can get 15m for him now then that would be a good bit of business as Archer is an adequate replacement for now. What a shame we let Ballard go.