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Saints 1-0 Villa - Match Thread


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MotM?  

161 members have voted

  1. 1. MotM?

    • McCarthy
      2
    • Livramento
      1
    • Salisu
      13
    • Bednarek
      0
    • KWP
      16
    • Romeu
      36
    • JWP
      28
    • Elyounoussi
      5
    • S. Armstrong
      0
    • Adams
      26
    • A. Armstrong
      33
    • Lyanco
      0
    • Diallo
      0
    • Broja
      1


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19 hours ago, saint1977 said:

Targett had a dreadful game and should have been sent off for a horrible forearm smash on Fornals (I think) 

That was Hause, but Targett should have got something for an awful flying neck grapple he did on Antonio. 

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3 minutes ago, Manuel said:

Seeing the run Wolves are on is making it easier to get over the defeat the other week.  I reckon we're gearing up for a decisive home win.  

A couple of wins against a poor Villa side, and a very poor Norwich side, and we can really start looking upwards.

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6 minutes ago, DT said:

Villa have sounded out Fonseca to replace Smith. Hope this works in our favour and that they don't pull the plug before the game and get new manager bounce

The new manager bounce is a load of bollocks, I can’t be arsed to find the stats, and think there are a couple of posters on here who probably can, but I saw some a couple of years ago that debunked the new manager bounce theory to be total crap. 

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2 minutes ago, Billy the Kidd said:

The new manager bounce is a load of bollocks, I can’t be arsed to find the stats, and think there are a couple of posters on here who probably can, but I saw some a couple of years ago that debunked the new manager bounce theory to be total crap. 

https://socceranalytics.substack.com/p/is-the-new-manager-bounce-really

Here's a bit on it. Personally if we were playing Spurs next I would be more concerned than I would have been two days ago but you're right that doesn't prove anything. 

1 minute ago, TWar said:

Where are you seeing this?

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/football/16605822/aston-villa-paul-fonseca-contact-replace-smith/

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Just now, DT said:

https://socceranalytics.substack.com/p/is-the-new-manager-bounce-really

Here's a bit on it. Personally if we were playing Spurs next I would be more concerned than I would have been two days ago but you're right that doesn't prove anything. 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/football/16605822/aston-villa-paul-fonseca-contact-replace-smith/

Thanks! I doubt he comes in before Friday though, luckily.

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38 minutes ago, DT said:

https://socceranalytics.substack.com/p/is-the-new-manager-bounce-really

Here's a bit on it. Personally if we were playing Spurs next I would be more concerned than I would have been two days ago but you're right that doesn't prove anything. 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/football/16605822/aston-villa-paul-fonseca-contact-replace-smith/

Yep, see it doesn’t really help. I’m not too fussed about Fonseca either.

We will smash everyteam who cometh before us.

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1 hour ago, Billy the Kidd said:

The new manager bounce is a load of bollocks, I can’t be arsed to find the stats, and think there are a couple of posters on here who probably can, but I saw some a couple of years ago that debunked the new manager bounce theory to be total crap. 

Just think if it were true though.  You could just bounce your way to safety just by sacking the manager every month or so.  AKA The Watford Way

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There is data on the manager bounce available here: https://www.docdroid.net/8r5Csa2/ib-math-studies-internal-assesment-pdf

Warning! This is proper hardcore stats, makes my end of season posts look like they were put together by Duckhunter! Careful those who click! (Although, as a piece of academic literature is proper crappily written, no offence to the fella)

It seems there is a correlation between new managers and a change in form although this guy is using a pretty small sample size. There is also not any data on repeated sackings, for example I notice teams who cycle through managers experience a significantly smaller new manager bounce anecdotally. I could test this using this guys methods but even I have limits 😅

There are a lot of other articles from various sites saying it is a myth but I can't see their working so this dude is the one I trust for now, regardless of his crappy sample size and average chi-squared correlation 

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11 minutes ago, Billy the Kidd said:

Ah was that a Friday, great news. We can beat Villa to go about 11th this time. 

Danny Wallace scored that overhead kick on a Friday and we went on to finish second. 

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22 minutes ago, TWar said:

There is data on the manager bounce available here: https://www.docdroid.net/8r5Csa2/ib-math-studies-internal-assesment-pdf

Warning! This is proper hardcore stats, makes my end of season posts look like they were put together by Duckhunter! Careful those who click! (Although, as a piece of academic literature is proper crappily written, no offence to the fella)

It seems there is a correlation between new managers and a change in form although this guy is using a pretty small sample size. There is also not any data on repeated sackings, for example I notice teams who cycle through managers experience a significantly smaller new manager bounce anecdotally. I could test this using this guys methods but even I have limits 😅

There are a lot of other articles from various sites saying it is a myth but I can't see their working so this dude is the one I trust for now, regardless of his crappy sample size and average chi-squared correlation 

Presumably if you appoint a shit manager you bounce less. Suspect Conte will bounce a bit more than Nuno. Emery will at least plug the goals at the back for Newcastle in a way that Howe probably won't. Hey ho. Maybe it will make Dean Smith throw everything at us in a last bid for a stay of execution.

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22 minutes ago, Billy the Kidd said:

I watched that live, didn’t realise that was a Friday. Great game that was and it was more special as games were rarely on tv back then. 

Great goal, great game, great player, and what a season. It was a tv game for me, and probably the game that got me hooked. 

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9 minutes ago, egg said:

Great goal, great game, great player, and what a season. It was a tv game for me, and probably the game that got me hooked. 

You must be a similar age to me, my first TV game and first season. TV games were rare then and a Friday night IIRC - not like the Sky games now. This game helped as well https://www.playmakerstats.com/jogo.php?id=128200

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24 minutes ago, egg said:

Great goal, great game, great player, and what a season. It was a tv game for me, and probably the game that got me hooked. 

Yeah, my family thought i was weird. So in 84 i would have been around 9 years old, and already followed Southampton - had done since I was 4.

I was gutted when we came 2nd in the league. I’m likely recalling this wrong, but thought we drew 0-0 with Stoke near the end of the season (may have been the final game).

 

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23 minutes ago, Billy the Kidd said:

Yeah, my family thought i was weird. So in 84 i would have been around 9 years old, and already followed Southampton - had done since I was 4.

I was gutted when we came 2nd in the league. I’m likely recalling this wrong, but thought we drew 0-0 with Stoke near the end of the season (may have been the final game).

 

I was 10. Didn't get to a live game for a few years, but dad bought the sports echo every week and I become a football anorak. My parents thought it weird too. When I started going it soon became every home game, away games whilst still at school. It gets you this football. 

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28 minutes ago, Billy the Kidd said:

Yeah, my family thought i was weird. So in 84 i would have been around 9 years old, and already followed Southampton - had done since I was 4.

I was gutted when we came 2nd in the league. I’m likely recalling this wrong, but thought we drew 0-0 with Stoke near the end of the season (may have been the final game).

 

That would make you a 75'er like me. But I wasn't interested in football until I started secondary school, and only began following Saints in 88/89.

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4 minutes ago, Sheaf Saint said:

That would make you a 75'er like me. But I wasn't interested in football until I started secondary school, and only began following Saints in 88/89.

Yep correct.

I had 2 older brothers and I was playing virtually daily at 4.

Shame you didnt cotton on sooner, we used to be good 🤣

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11 minutes ago, egg said:

I was 10. Didn't get to a live game for a few years, but dad bought the sports echo every week and I become a football anorak. My parents thought it weird too. When I started going it soon became every home game, away games whilst still at school. It gets you this football. 

Ah so we are pretty close in age it seems. Hardcore going to all games when you were at school 👍

I never went to The Dell, we moved away when I was 6, and my step father supports QPR. We used to go to Loftus Road a fair few times, even the 0–4 mauling we handed them out (i was in the home end celebrating) when the original nice hair Armstrong scored a belter (free kick i think). Also used to go to the Goldstone a bit as we lived in Sussex then, and my sisters fella used to take me.

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37 minutes ago, Billy the Kidd said:

Yeah, my family thought i was weird. So in 84 i would have been around 9 years old, and already followed Southampton - had done since I was 4.

I was gutted when we came 2nd in the league. I’m likely recalling this wrong, but thought we drew 0-0 with Stoke near the end of the season (may have been the final game).

 

Was 1-1 with Stoke, but wasn’t an easy place to go that season, not compared to Stoke’s dreadful 84/85 where they were bottom by miles. The costly defeat as I recall was 0-2 at home to Notts Co who were relegated and shipped goals all over the place. So strong at the Dell all season that was a shock result.

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Just now, Billy the Kidd said:

Ah so we are pretty close in age it seems. Hardcore going to all games when you were at school 👍

I never went to The Dell, we moved away when I was 6, and my step father supports QPR. We used to go to Loftus Road a fair few times, even the 0–4 mauling we handed them out (i was in the home end celebrating) when the original nice hair Armstrong scored a belter (free kick i think). Also used to go to the Goldstone a bit as we lived in Sussex then, and my sisters fella used to take me.

I blagged a job at the dell in the food stand in the milton. Had to be 16 but they fell for the dodgy dob despite me looking about 9! There were 3 on our till - me, another lad and a girl who hated football. As soon as the game kicked off me and the other lad watched the game on the Milton then nipped back for the half time rush, pulled the shutters down just before kick off, legged it around to the office in the west stand with the leftover pies (which went straight in the freezer!) and cash, got our £7 wages, and watched the last half hour or so in the posh seats in the West stand. I didn't work the midweek games so used my staff pass to get in free.

Best job ever. 

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27 minutes ago, saint1977 said:

Was 1-1 with Stoke, but wasn’t an easy place to go that season, not compared to Stoke’s dreadful 84/85 where they were bottom by miles. The costly defeat as I recall was 0-2 at home to Notts Co who were relegated and shipped goals all over the place. So strong at the Dell all season that was a shock result.

Ah yeah, maybe it was the Notts Co one I’m remembering 👍

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25 minutes ago, egg said:

I blagged a job at the dell in the food stand in the milton. Had to be 16 but they fell for the dodgy dob despite me looking about 9! There were 3 on our till - me, another lad and a girl who hated football. As soon as the game kicked off me and the other lad watched the game on the Milton then nipped back for the half time rush, pulled the shutters down just before kick off, legged it around to the office in the west stand with the leftover pies (which went straight in the freezer!) and cash, got our £7 wages, and watched the last half hour or so in the posh seats in the West stand. I didn't work the midweek games so used my staff pass to get in free.

Best job ever. 

Yeah sounds brilliant, would have loved to have done that back in the day.

I was moved to a small village, miles from any proper footy, other than playing for my local team and watching Cefax churn about as quick as Moi Ely plays.

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1 hour ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

Didn’t Ruddock head butt Craig Short during a Friday night game. Maybe The Gorilla will stick one on Ings as a tribute. 

Yes, think he ran half the length of the field to join a scrap in the penalty area.

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14 hours ago, egg said:

I blagged a job at the dell in the food stand in the milton. Had to be 16 but they fell for the dodgy dob despite me looking about 9! There were 3 on our till - me, another lad and a girl who hated football. As soon as the game kicked off me and the other lad watched the game on the Milton then nipped back for the half time rush, pulled the shutters down just before kick off, legged it around to the office in the west stand with the leftover pies (which went straight in the freezer!) and cash, got our £7 wages, and watched the last half hour or so in the posh seats in the West stand. I didn't work the midweek games so used my staff pass to get in free.

Best job ever. 

My uncle was a steward at the dell 80s & 90s .. on the piss from 11am match days used to knock the huge gates at Milton for vehicle entrance only at 2.55pm ..me and a few of my mates let in.. wen the dell went to all seater.. let in to stand in the stewards pen corner of Milton/east stand ..didn’t pay a penny for over 10 yrs .. 👌🏻

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Although Dean Smith is in a incredibly difficult situation, he would be foolish the start Ings on Friday night. Rushing him back could well have serious repercussions. But, I wonder if the pressure Smith is under will make him throw the dice. If he has one game to save his job, why worry about the next three months. 

Very little info going round from the midlands, they want this quiet for as long as possible. 

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14 hours ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

Nowadays the club would probably send him on an anger management course, and the nods would want him sacked. 

HE SHOULD NEVER PLAY FOR SAINTS AGAIN.

Given the reaction to Jankewitz when he supposedly got himself deliberately sent off at Old Trafford imagine the meltdown if this happened now

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1 minute ago, adriansfc said:

Yep. It's just as likely to do nothing at all but people only like to remember the times it does well. But people still believe in a manager of the month curse too because they don't understand maths. 

You are correct of course, but I’d dread Ralph ever wins the manager of the month award again, people will be worried about him leaving 😉

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1 minute ago, Matthew Le God said:

Broja in training today...

 

20211103_193328.jpg

That's good news. Being an expert in these things, I can tell from the photo that both calf's (or is that calves?), and the hamstrings look fine. The Achilles look ready to play, so my medical report concludes that he looks alright to me .......apart from that dodgy index finger though. 😀

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Guess there is at least 3 of us 75yo's. my first game was 1952 at home div 3 south I thank against Rotherham. May have wrong team but we lost.  I had every programme from home matches until I joined army in 1962 as boy squat.

Worst thing my dad ever did was throw away all my brochures and the Tiger comics which were also complete. even sold my bike .

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