Play Off Chase

[Give it to Ron]

11 hours ago, die Mannyschaft said:

Need Skates to draw at least with Derby cant have another team on same number points in case we drop points.

We have to play both Derby and Wrexham it’s in our hands

[SaintLondon]

Starting to feel sick with nerves constantly.. I think if Watford get a positive result tonight it'll be massive for tomorrow -  I do worry about Norwich but I think if we can start the game well and get the monkey of our back then we can hopefully kick on... Up the Saints! 

[Noodles34]

On 16/03/2026 at 07:19, CB Fry said:

So we hd a better chance of winning the FA Cup this season than getting promoted all along. Before the season started its only 7 games to win the cup so much more likely on your logic.

That’s not the logic though is it. I stated this at this point, the parameters have changed from last August. And I’m not saying winning the cup at all, I personally think we’ll do neither. I fancy us beating arsenal as much as I fear us scraping a draw at home to Norwich. 

[macca155]

Only once has more than 75 points been required (Fulham needed 80 in 2017). 6 wins from 9 for Saints, should be enough.

There will be losses, it's inevitable, and that's going to lead to some serious knee wobbling from Saints fans.

This time 2 years ago Saints had 73 points, way more comfortable.

Do we, and more importantly the players, have the mental strength to cope.

[SNSUN]

Well done Watford. Tonda, it's over to you.

[die Mannyschaft]

2 minutes ago, SNSUN said:

Well done Watford. Tonda, it's over to you.

Brilliant win, you just wouldn't have predicted the run of result Saints have had and other teams results. No better incentive tomorrow night.

[bpsaint]

Last time we broke into the playoffs, albeit very briefly at 3-0 up against West Brom, the wheels well and truly fucking fell off. Let’s hope the team are in a decent place to handle the expectation ahead of tomorrow night.

With a tough trip to Sheffield United at the weekend there’s every chance Wrexham are sat behind us and Derby come Saturday evening.

 

 

[Saint Scott]

Updated. A nod to @Andy Hill too 😉

On 03/03/2026 at 22:15, Saint Scott said:

A look at the run in for Saints, Hull and Wrexham. 

	Hull City (63 pts)	Southampton (57 pts)	Wrexham (60 pts)
	Millwall (L)	West Bromwich Albion (D)	Hull City (L)
	Wrexham (W)	Coventry City (W)	Swansea City (W)
	West Bromwich Albion (L)	Norwich City (H)	Watford (L)
	Sheffield Wednesday (H)	Oxford United (H)	Sheffield United (A)
	Oxford United (A)	Wrexham (A)	West Bromwich Albion (A)
	Coventry City (H)	Derby County (H)	Southampton (H)
	Sheffield United (A)	Swansea City (A)	Birmingham City (A)
	Birmingham City (H)	Bristol City (H)	Stoke City (H)
	Leicester City (A)	Blackburn Rovers (H)	Oxford United (A)
	Charlton Athletic (H)	Ipswich Town (H)	Coventry City (A)
	Norwich City (H)	Preston North End (A)	Middlesbrough (H)

 

On 03/03/2026 at 22:45, Andy Hill said:

Very wishful thinking if you think Hull are catchable.

 

Edited yesterday at 09:15 by Saint Scott
FA Cup fixture reschedules

[skintsaint]

Wrexham are cooked looking at those away games. But who knows.

[woodsaint1]

1 hour ago, skintsaint said:

Wrexham are cooked looking at those away games. But who knows.

Their last two games may not be as difficult as they seem. Coventry could/should be champions (although will want to finish at home with a win) and same Boro could be confirmed 3rd and resting players. We could do the autos going down to the wire

[skintsaint]

31 minutes ago, woodsaint1 said:

Their last two games may not be as difficult as they seem. Coventry could/should be champions (although will want to finish at home with a win) and same Boro could be confirmed 3rd and resting players. We could do the autos going down to the wire

True but WBA not easy, Birmingham/Wrexham has needle going back from last season. Oxford fighting for survival...could be a few losses/draws in there.

[pimpin4rizeal]

Someone left the back door open  beat Norwich tonight we looking good 

[StrangelyBrown]

On 02/03/2026 at 13:52, StrangelyBrown said:

6 from 11 now... Starting to look more realistic! But the hope kills

5 wins from 9 still needed based on needing to get more than 70 to make the playoffs. It's going to be tough with a difficult run of games coming up, but hats off to Tonda he's keeping the hope alive!

Tough game tonight.

[Football Special]

2 hours ago, pimpin4rizeal said:

Someone left the back door open  beat Norwich tonight we looking good 

Norwich must also be thinking if they win tonight they have a real chance of 6th. 

Derby / Watford- need to keep an eye on those two putting a run together 

[warsash saint]

30 aways required for Wrexham away game 😬

[Noodles34]

3 minutes ago, warsash saint said:

30 aways required for Wrexham away game 😬

They are selling away by away - ridiculous 

[Pamplemousse]

On sale now on the site, a little earlier than the advertised 9.30

 

[Tommy Mulgrew]

For a few weeks now, we have benefited from the results of a whole load of other games going our way in a way that I cannot remember before: usually in a promotion chase or a relegation battle other games tend to throw up an ever increasing succession of hurdles for us to overcome.  This time, it could not have been better for us if we could determine others’ results ourselves.

Hence, I think I shall steel myself for a swinging reversal of our fortunes in a few weeks time.  We’ll get into the play-offs all right.  But then the pay-back for our good fortune so far will kick in and kick us up the jacksie.

That’s what a long lifetime of supporting Saints does to you!

[Jack]

1 hour ago, Tommy Mulgrew said:

For a few weeks now, we have benefited from the results of a whole load of other games going our way in a way that I cannot remember before: usually in a promotion chase or a relegation battle other games tend to throw up an ever increasing succession of hurdles for us to overcome.  This time, it could not have been better for us if we could determine others’ results ourselves.

Hence, I think I shall steel myself for a swinging reversal of our fortunes in a few weeks time.  We’ll get into the play-offs all right.  But then the pay-back for our good fortune so far will kick in and kick us up the jacksie.

That’s what a long lifetime of supporting Saints does to you!

We absolutely bottled it last time we got this close and went on a horrendous run. No room for error now with this few games left. A point wouldn’t be the worst tonight but a win really sets us up for the run in

[Doctoroncall]

7 hours ago, Football Special said:

Norwich must also be thinking if they win tonight they have a real chance of 6th. 

Derby / Watford- need to keep an eye on those two putting a run together 

it’s all getting quite tense!  

Nine games to go. Norwich still have Millwall (a), Ipswich (h), Derby (h) and Hull (a) to play as well as the Skates (h) in their battle for survival. They have to win two more matches than us and Derby.  Hopefully that means they’ll be more inclined to attack tonight especially as the game goes on, scoring first will be important. 

[CB Fry]

On 13/03/2026 at 07:53, Maggie May said:

We'll see.

Let me know when Norwich reach the top six.

[StrangelyBrown]

14 hours ago, StrangelyBrown said:

5 wins from 9 still needed based on needing to get more than 70 to make the playoffs. It's going to be tough with a difficult run of games coming up, but hats off to Tonda he's keeping the hope alive!

Tough game tonight.

4 from 8 needed. Great work Tonda!

Hopefully we can start to move up through the play off contenders 

[SNSUN]

If you told me a week ago after the WBA draw we'd beat Coventry and Norwich I wouldn't have believed you, but that is tremendous resilience from the lads, even when we're not really at our attacking best. But I've said it recently, one of the key reasons for our good form is our defensive solidity. That starts with Peretz signing, and reintegrating Bree. Then it comes from playing the back 4 which THB is much more comfortable playing. You know Jack is playing well when people hardly mention him, and even Manning has stepped up to cover Welington's absence admirably. Then there's Downes in front, probably in the best form of his career. With a foundation like that we can go into games knowing we won't concede, or at least won't concede many.

Keep it tight against Oxford on Saturday and another 1-0 would do.

[Willo of Whiteley]

Second is on 👀

[Willo of Whiteley]

Some tasty games this weekend.

Teams up and down the league are fighting for their lives now.

Lots of points to be taken off each other.

Why shouldn’t the autos be out the question? Stranger things have happened 😇👀

[Miltonaggro]

Let me the first to say that the league and cup double is still possible. 

[Harry_SFC]

6 hours ago, Willo of Whiteley said:

Some tasty games this weekend.

Teams up and down the league are fighting for their lives now.

Lots of points to be taken off each other.

Why shouldn’t the autos be out the question? Stranger things have happened 😇👀

It's a shame Hull are playing Sheffield Wednesday. 

Could've gone into the international break in 5th! 

Wrexham and Derby both have tricky looking games though. 

Edited 10 hours ago by Harry_SFC

[Stud mark of doom]

It’s up for grabs now 

[coalman]

7 hours ago, Willo of Whiteley said:

Some tasty games this weekend.

Teams up and down the league are fighting for their lives now.

Lots of points to be taken off each other.

Why shouldn’t the autos be out the question? Stranger things have happened 😇👀

Somehow I fancy Sheff Wed to take something from their game against Hull. Wrexham have to deal with Joe Rothwell who has something to prove after his Rangers spell so obviously they're not getting anything. Everything's coming up Tonda.

[Pamplemousse]

Let's worry about beating Oxford first before thinking about 2nd!!

[Sheaf Saint]

7 hours ago, Willo of Whiteley said:

Some tasty games this weekend.

Teams up and down the league are fighting for their lives now.

Lots of points to be taken off each other.

Why shouldn’t the autos be out the question? Stranger things have happened 😇👀

Wrexham's trip to Bramall Lane is far from an easy game. Can see them dropping points there. Then they've got two more tricky aways at WBA and Birmingham with our game at theirs sandwiched in between. That's a tough run for them which could make or break their playoff bid.

[bangkoksaint]

It’s like golf……….look after yourself and don’t worry about the rest 

[Saint86]

On 17/03/2026 at 23:02, Saint Scott said:

Updated. A nod to @Andy Hill too 😉

 

 

Needs to have Derby added i reckon.

[Saint86]

9 hours ago, Willo of Whiteley said:

Second is on 👀

As much as i would love this to be the case, the Reading style "McDermot" just isn't on. There is essentially no chance we're catching up 10 points in 8 games at this end of the table, let alone overhauling the 4 sides between us and claiming 2nd. Maybe we can grab 4th and get a home playoff 2nd leg... but right now i'd just be happy to take the playoff spot, or perhaps a cheeky 5th. We have the hardest fixtures of us, Wrexham, and derby.

Edited 7 hours ago by Saint86

[West end Saints]

Just for fun I did Ai prediction, asking it to look at form, whether games are home or away, injury news and any other factors.

I know it's not accurate and sometimes misses fixtures etc but it's breakdown is, based on today.

It does pick up on teams playing each other better than I do...

 

1st 0.1%

2nd 8.5%

3rd 12.0%

4th 22.0%

5th 28.0%

6th 24.4%

7th 4.0%

8th 0.5%

9th 0.3%

It adds comment that, with weighting for squad depth, and likely end of season form 4th increases further.

 

[S-Clarke]

We've certainly picked the right time to have our uptick in results, because all the other teams around us have played either each other or top sides - and we've been able to pull back a ton of points on Hull, Millwall, Wrexham etc. 

I'm conscious that we'll have off days between now and the end, as every team does (the Wrexham away game is a biggy in my eyes), but the balance of home games left against away games surely puts this strongly in our favour.

If we'd have had a better start to the season, even talking 6 or 7 points better, we'd be breathing down Boro's necks right now. 

[Maggie May]

12 hours ago, CB Fry said:

Let me know when Norwich reach the top six.

🎣 😉

[Willo of Whiteley]

The silver lining is that Man Coty made up eight points in the final four games on United over team years ago 😉

We have to just concentrate on our games, forget the rest of the league.

But at this time of the season this is where everyone is scrapping, look at Oxford’s recent form, Blackburn, West Brom. 
Teams scrapping for points at the bottom and then those at the top will come unstuck too.

Hull’s form has plummeted, Ipswich will pip Middlesbrough to the auto spot.
Teams will be taking points off each other.

[kwsaint]

17 minutes ago, Willo of Whiteley said:

The silver lining is that Man Coty made up eight points in the final four games on United over team years ago 😉

We have to just concentrate on our games, forget the rest of the league.

But at this time of the season this is where everyone is scrapping, look at Oxford’s recent form, Blackburn, West Brom. 
Teams scrapping for points at the bottom and then those at the top will come unstuck too.

Hull’s form has plummeted, Ipswich will pip Middlesbrough to the auto spot.
Teams will be taking points off each other.

Control the controllables.

I think a previous manager once said that…

[saintant]

2 hours ago, Saint86 said:

As much as i would love this to be the case, the Reading style "McDermot" just isn't on. There is essentially no chance we're catching up 10 points in 8 games at this end of the table, let alone overhauling the 4 sides between us and claiming 2nd. Maybe we can grab 4th and get a home playoff 2nd leg... but right now i'd just be happy to take the playoff spot, or perhaps a cheeky 5th. We have the hardest fixtures of us, Wrexham, and derby.

We actually have the easier set of fixtures left.

[Saint Garrett]

2 hours ago, Saint86 said:

As much as i would love this to be the case, the Reading style "McDermot" just isn't on. There is essentially no chance we're catching up 10 points in 8 games at this end of the table, let alone overhauling the 4 sides between us and claiming 2nd. Maybe we can grab 4th and get a home playoff 2nd leg... but right now i'd just be happy to take the playoff spot, or perhaps a cheeky 5th. We have the hardest fixtures of us, Wrexham, and derby.

Do we ? 

We play Wrexham (a), Swansea (a), Preston (a), 

We have 5 home games...

I'd be surprised if those two have easier games than us...autos is still on...

[trousers]

1 hour ago, West end Saints said:

Just for fun I did Ai prediction, asking it to look at form, whether games are home or away, injury news and any other factors.

I know it's not accurate and sometimes misses fixtures etc but it's breakdown is, based on today.

It does pick up on teams playing each other better than I do...

 

1st 0.1%

2nd 8.5%

3rd 12.0%

4th 22.0%

5th 28.0%

6th 24.4%

7th 4.0%

8th 0.5%

9th 0.3%

It adds comment that, with weighting for squad depth, and likely end of season form 4th increases further.

 

So, on that analysis, we've more chance of being promoted automatically in 2nd than finishing outside the playoffs. Bring it on!

[Saint86]

1 hour ago, Saint Garrett said:

Do we ? 

We play Wrexham (a), Swansea (a), Preston (a), 

We have 5 home games...

I'd be surprised if those two have easier games than us...autos is still on...

Our run is harder than it looks imo - we have the most congested upcoming fixtures in the league (along with Ipswich).

Oxford this weekend is the 5th game in 13days. The reality is they're unbeaten in 4, have only lost one of the last 5, and won 3 of the last 4. Including a draw away at boro. At the end of our current run, this is not an easy game.

Two immediate 6 pointers - Wrexham (a) and Derby (who are playing very well). We play arsenal immediatley before them. That's 3 tough games in 7 days, and the absolute minimum we can get away with from the two league games is 4 points... A loss to Wrexham would be disastrous, a draw with Wrexham and a draw with derby would likely see us drop out of the play offs and put it into Wrexham's hands, and a draw with Wrexham and a loss to derby would likely see us fall behind both of them. We are also carrying key injuries currently - we cannot afford to lose any more first team squad players.

So all in, that first week back is an absolutely massive week for us - could well be season defining.

Swansea (a) - they are the 7th best home record in the division (above us, Wrexham, and hull) - thats not an easy game.

As for the rest...

Bristol city are a bogey team for us for whatever reason. You'd bet on us to break that but who really knows.

Blackburn have a good new manager, are in form, and will be fighting for their lives.

Ipswich are probably the other "best" side in the division, and will be scrapping for autos.

Its a developing picture, but on current look, i'd say we've got the following:

Summary:

Oxford (h) - its going to be a tough slog imo.

*** International break ***

(04/04 - Arsenal)

07-04 - Wrexham (a) - tough (3days later)

11/04 - Derby (h) - tough (4days later)

*** 7day break ***

18/04 - Swansea (a) - tough

21/04 - Bristol City (h) - medium  (3day later)

25/04 - Blackburn (h) - medium (4days later) - This is also the FA Cup semi final weekend, so if we did make it, you would imagine the 7day break above will be filled by a rearranged game.

28/04 - Ipswich (h) - medium ( 3days later)

02/05 - Preston away - medium (4days later)

We have put ourselves in a fantastic position - but I think its asking a lot of the team to maintain the current intensity and performances throughout the run in. I just can't see us going on winning games, so its going to be tense and proper squeaky bum time to get over the line... Make it in the playoffs though, and you've got to fancy us.

Championship play off semi finals take place in the 2weeks after the season closing - so up to 16th i'd guess.

If by some complete miracle we win 2 more games in the cup and manager the play offs, the FA cup final is on the 16th May... (championship teams aren't expected to make it)...

Playoff final is the 23rd May.

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by Saint86

[Football Special]

1 hour ago, Saint Garrett said:

Do we ? 

We play Wrexham (a), Swansea (a), Preston (a), 

We have 5 home games...

I'd be surprised if those two have easier games than us...autos is still on...

We are not in the Autos race 

[RedArmy]

5 minutes ago, Football Special said:

We are not in the Autos race 

Yeah I don’t know what this idea is all about, keep seeing it said on here and it’s mental. 
 

Assuming Ipswich win their game in hand against the Skates we would essentially have to win all of our last 8 games and hope Ipswich drop 12 points, Boro drop 11 points and Millwall drop 8 points
 

It’s a nice idea but can we just focus on keeping hold out 6th for now. 

[wild-saint]

My AI has Predicted the following Final Standings (If Southampton win all 8 gas) 

 

Predicted Rank	Team	Projected Points	Rationale
1	Coventry City	90-95	Currently on 77 points with 8 games left. Even with a dip, they remain heavy favourites for the title.
2	Southampton	84	A perfect run would likely see them leapfrog Middlesbrough and Ipswich, especially since they face Ipswich directly on 28 April.
3	Ipswich Town	82-84	Currently on 68 points with 9 games left. If they lose to Southampton but win elsewhere, they would finish very close to 84.
4	Middlesbrough	80-83	Currently on 70 points with 8 games left. Inconsistent home form makes it unlikely they would match a perfect Southampton run.

[RedArmy]

5 wins from 8 and don’t lose to Wrexham. 
 

Thats our target. 

[West end Saints]

4 hours ago, Saint86 said:

As much as i would love this to be the case, the Reading style "McDermot" just isn't on. There is essentially no chance we're catching up 10 points in 8 games at this end of the table, let alone overhauling the 4 sides between us and claiming 2nd. Maybe we can grab 4th and get a home playoff 2nd leg... but right now i'd just be happy to take the playoff spot, or perhaps a cheeky 5th. We have the hardest fixtures of us, Wrexham, and derby.

I would prefer our run in to Wrexham's. Personally think we may lose there but finish above them.

Not sure I agree with ratings but below shows how many home / away and league position of opponents 

Coventry City
vs Swansea City (A) – 11th  
vs Derby County (H) – 8th
vs Hull City (A) – 5th
vs Sheffield Wednesday (H) – 24th
vs Blackburn Rovers (A) – 19th
vs Portsmouth (H) – 20th
vs Wrexham (H) – 7th
vs Watford (A) – 9th

4 home average opponents league position 14.8th

4 away average opponents league position 11th

% games at home = 50%

Run-in difficulty rating = 4

Middlesbrough
vs Blackburn Rovers (A) – 19th
vs Millwall (H) – 4th
vs Swansea City (A) – 11th  
vs Portsmouth (H) – 20th
vs Ipswich Town (A) – 3rd
vs Sheffield Wednesday (H) – 24th
vs Watford (A) – 9th
vs Wrexham (A) – 7th

3 home average opponents league position 16th

5 away average opponents league position 9.8th

% games at home = 37.5%

Run-in difficulty rating = 3

Ipswich Town
vs Millwall (H) – 4th
vs Southampton (A) – 6th
vs Birmingham City (H) – 10th
vs Norwich City (A) – 12th
vs Portsmouth (A) – 20th
vs Middlesbrough (H) – 2nd
vs Charlton Athletic (A) – 18th
vs Southampton (H) – 6th
vs West Brom (A) – 21st

4 home average opponents league position 5.5th

5 away average opponents league position 15.4th

% games at home = 44.4%

Run-in difficulty rating = 7

Millwall
vs Ipswich Town (A) – 3rd
vs Middlesbrough (A) – 2nd
vs Norwich City (H) – 12th
vs West Brom (A) – 21st
vs QPR (H) – 16th
vs Stoke City (A) – 13th
vs Leicester City (A) – 23rd
vs Oxford United (H) – 22nd

3 home average opponents league position 16.7th

5 away average opponents league position 12.4th

% games at home = 37.5%

Run-in difficulty rating = 2  

Hull City
vs Sheffield Wednesday (H) – 24th
vs Oxford United (A) – 22nd  
vs Coventry City (H) – 1st
vs Sheffield United (A) – 15th
vs Birmingham City (H) – 10th
vs Leicester City (A) – 23rd
vs Watford (H) – 9th
vs Wrexham (A) – 7th

4 home average opponents league position 11th

4 away average opponents league position 16.8th

% games at home = 50%

Run-in difficulty rating = 1

Southampton

vs Oxford United (H) – 22nd  
vs Wrexham (A) – 7th
vs Derby County (H) – 8th
vs Swansea City (A) – 11th  
vs Bristol City (H) – 14th
vs Blackburn Rovers (H) – 19th
vs Ipswich Town (H) – 3rd
vs Preston North End (A) – 17th

5 home average opponents league position 13.2nd

3 away average opponents league position 11.7th

% games at home = 62.5%

Run-in difficulty rating = 5

Wrexham AFC
vs Sheffield United (A) – 15th
vs West Brom (A) – 21st
vs Southampton (H) – 6th
vs Birmingham City (A) – 10th
vs Stoke City (H) – 13th
vs Oxford United (A) – 22nd  
vs Coventry City (A) – 1st
vs Middlesbrough (H) – 2nd

3 home average opponents league position 7th

5 away average opponents league position 13.8th

% games at home = 37.5%
Run-in difficulty rating = 8

Derby County
vs Birmingham City (H) – 10th
vs Coventry City (A) – 1st
vs Stoke City (H) – 13th
vs Southampton (A) – 6th
vs Oxford United (H) – 22nd  
vs Sheffield United (A) – 15th
vs QPR (H) – 16th
vs Norwich City (A) – 12th

4 home average opponents league position 15.3rd

4 away average opponents league position 8.5th

% games at home = 50%

Run-in difficulty rating = 6

Watford
vs Leicester City (H) – 23rd
vs QPR (A) – 16th
vs Charlton Athletic (H) – 18th
vs Oxford United (A) – 22nd  
vs Sheffield United (H) – 15th
vs West Brom (A) – 21st
vs Middlesbrough (A) – 2nd
vs Hull City (A) – 5th
vs Coventry City (H) – 1st

4 home average opponents league position 14.3rd

5 away average opponents league position 13.2nd

% games at home = 44.4%

Run-in difficulty rating = 9

[Toadhall Saint]

4 hours ago, Saint86 said:

As much as i would love this to be the case, the Reading style "McDermot" just isn't on. There is essentially no chance we're catching up 10 points in 8 games at this end of the table, let alone overhauling the 4 sides between us and claiming 2nd. Maybe we can grab 4th and get a home playoff 2nd leg... but right now i'd just be happy to take the playoff spot, or perhaps a cheeky 5th. We have the hardest fixtures of us, Wrexham, and derby.

Thing is we have just beaten the most inform team (with more away wins than home wins) in the league on the back of beating the runaway league leaders in their own back yard. All that on top of beating a fairly decent Prem club. Mad eh? 😉

[badgerx16]

10 until end-of-season

20 win the next game

30 goto 20

Edited 2 hours ago by badgerx16