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Summer Transfer Window 2019


Heisenberg

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Tottenham Hotspur: "We're the best team financially, we didn't sign anyone for two whole windows!"

Southampton FC: "Hold my beer..."

 

IF, and it's a big IF, we keep Hasenhuttl in the summer, and IF we are still in the Premier League (which I hope and pray we will be), then the summer window should be very exciting. If we lose Hasenhuttl, or if we end up in the Championship trying to outbid Portsmouth for players, it will SUCK.

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I still don't know if we have much money to spend. Recent evidence says no.

But IF we do. Then I can see Ralph doing what Poch did in his first summer, and that's strengthen through the spine

 

CB(s), Striker,

 

I don't think we'll get a GK but I can see Gunn getting promoted. We need a RB, I think the calibre of that RB will be determined by how Valery plays. He's essentially ended up in a situation where he has 3/4 months that's left of this season to stake his claim for the starting berth full time.

 

After that I think the other major area we need to invest in is attackers. Redmond and Armstrong are fine. But the Palace game showed how imbalanced we are. We're a good team when we have to react (e.g. playing away or against the bigger sides), but we seem to struggle a little when we have to instigate. An attacker who can work in tight spaces is essential. I know he splits opinions on here but I'm not averse to Boufal being given another crack.

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£20m of our budget has already gone on ings, so not too hopeful for anything significant.

 

Still won’t be able to shift Forster and will end up with Carrillo and Hodet back at the club eating the wage bill.

 

We’ll narrowly miss out on the net spend trophy as Bournemouth will.

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We'll send out about half the team on loan (Ely, Austin, Hoedt, Carrillo, Sims, Barnes, Clasie, etc.) and try to sign players who aren't that interested in coming here who use us to get attention from bigger teams. Then we'll sign 2-3 players for about 15-20m who have slightly different strengths and weaknesses to the players we ship out on loan but are generally about as good overall. To finance those purchases we'll sell two of our better players (probably Hojbjerg and Bertrand).

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We'll send out about half the team on loan (Ely, Austin, Hoedt, Carrillo, Sims, Barnes, Clasie, etc.) and try to sign players who aren't that interested in coming here who use us to get attention from bigger teams. Then we'll sign 2-3 players for about 15-20m who have slightly different strengths and weaknesses to the players we ship out on loan but are generally about as good overall. To finance those purchases we'll sell two of our better players (probably Hojbjerg and Bertrand).

 

We need to go back to doing that. It worked well. These past few years we've signed players and managers who might stay for longer but don't have the quality the VVD's, Toby's, Mane's, Clyne's, Pochettino's had. I'm happy to go back to that, we were better off for it.

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Do we have to sign Ings?

 

Yes we have to sign Ings, I doubt we are going to find an upgrade on him and he fits Ralfs way of playing.

 

My conservative estimate would be that the summer transfer budget is about £30 million, maybe £40 million considering the wage bill regardless of who we bring in should be lower because the squad will be smaller.

 

The money from the Gabbiadini sale and likely sale of Cedric, will cover the £20 million for Ings.

 

Then it is raising as much as possible from the sales of Forster, Boufal, Carrillo, Hoedt, Clasie, Austin. Which if we estimated an average sell there of lets say £8 million, would raise another £40 - 50 million. IMO these players need to either go or be used, no more loans.

 

Plus I reckon some from the likes of Gallagher, Reed, McQueen, Hesketh, Sims, Lewis might be sold as well as they are probably surplus/not good enough and you could maybe raise another £10 - 15 million there.

 

Plus there is Elyounoussi, who I can't see much use for either.

 

Forster, Clasie, Austin, Gabbiadini, Cedric, Davis, Boufal, Carrillo, & Hoedt off the wage bill could also free up probably £500k a week in wages, or £24 million a year as well.

 

 

Leaving us with around £80 million to spend and a lot of room on the wage budget.

 

Which we would need IMO -

 

- New pacey centre-back

- New first choice right back.

- Pacey attacker

- Pacey striker

- Target man but mobile striker.

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£20m of our budget has already gone on ings, so not too hopeful for anything significant.

 

Still won’t be able to shift Forster and will end up with Carrillo and Hodet back at the club eating the wage bill.

 

We’ll narrowly miss out on the net spend trophy as Bournemouth will.

not actually true as we dont pay all 20m up front it will spread.

 

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

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Very Excited. Fresh Budgets, Targets researched and scouted, and no January Premium on the players. On top of that, Ralph gets a Pre-season to establish how he wants to play.

 

I just hope that they turn out to be decent when they get here.

 

Good stuff. Big challenge will be getting players out again.

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I think the key part of the summer is how quickly we can shift the likes of Cedric, Hoedt, Boufal, Carrillo on permanent deals. (maybe even Forster).

 

Given how Boufal and Carrillo have been doing over in Spain, I think the chances of us getting a fee from their current clubs is slim, so they'll be back with us.

 

I don't think the Cedric move is with an obligation to buy, so there's every chance he will be returned as well. Then we have the very big problem which is Fraser....absolutely no idea what's happening with him, but we're ****ing money away with him on the books.

 

I think we've made a start in trimming the squad in this window, but my frustration is that it's primarily been loan deals - so we could be in the same position come the summer with an overloaded squad and players we don't want but no one else does either. Thus, again, restricting what we can do.

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Very Excited. Fresh Budgets, Targets researched and scouted, and no January Premium on the players. On top of that, Ralph gets a Pre-season to establish how he wants to play.

 

Assuming, of course, that we get these new players in at the beginning of the summer window rather than fannying around and leaving it until the end of the window

 

;)

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I think the key part of the summer is how quickly we can shift the likes of Cedric, Hoedt, Boufal, Carrillo on permanent deals. (maybe even Forster).

 

Given how Boufal and Carrillo have been doing over in Spain, I think the chances of us getting a fee from their current clubs is slim, so they'll be back with us.

 

I don't think the Cedric move is with an obligation to buy, so there's every chance he will be returned as well. Then we have the very big problem which is Fraser....absolutely no idea what's happening with him, but we're ****ing money away with him on the books.

 

I think we've made a start in trimming the squad in this window, but my frustration is that it's primarily been loan deals - so we could be in the same position come the summer with an overloaded squad and players we don't want but no one else does either. Thus, again, restricting what we can do.

 

Agree. If we manage to shift all of this window's loanees, it will go down as a major success. The reality is that I can only see us shifting Cedric for anything close to good value with clubs using his contract status (out of contract next summer) to negotiate aggressively. If we can't remove some of this deadwood, I won't be surprised if RH ends up shifting first teamers i.e. Bertrand if he wants to build the side in his image. Of course, the Gabbi (and probable Austin) money will help.

Edited by shurlock
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Very Excited. Fresh Budgets, Targets researched and scouted, and no January Premium on the players. On top of that, Ralph gets a Pre-season to establish how he wants to play.

 

I just hope that they turn out to be decent when they get here.

 

Smiley winky thing?

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He wasn't. But he was on our radar, like Mepham. Depends how badly brum need the money (see redknapp problems*)

 

 

Pretty sure Augustina from red bull is a prime target seeing the way Ralphs face lit up when tod we we were linked to him .....I also think a lot of you are are underestimating Boufal ...he does have a good work ethic and is a wild card with huge technical ability , I can see RH liking him a lot and it will be interesting to see with some skilled coaching how comes on .

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We usually show willingness to spend in the summer. People don't seem to appreciate just how much we've spent (and wasted) on fees, wages, sackings etc.

 

But we still went out and signed Gunn. Not a priority, but a target we really wanted who was available, so we spent quite a bit of him. It's not like we've just been persistently tight and it's some big mystery about where the money has gone.

 

I understand. But we normally have leftover sales cash.

 

Our spend last summer was large, but we had the VvD (minus Carrillo) plus Tadic fee to spend.

 

We're largely even on spending now so will be interesting to see how the book's balance.

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I think the key part of the summer is how quickly we can shift the likes of Cedric, Hoedt, Boufal, Carrillo on permanent deals. (maybe even Forster).

 

Given how Boufal and Carrillo have been doing over in Spain, I think the chances of us getting a fee from their current clubs is slim, so they'll be back with us.

 

I don't think the Cedric move is with an obligation to buy, so there's every chance he will be returned as well. Then we have the very big problem which is Fraser....absolutely no idea what's happening with him, but we're ****ing money away with him on the books.

 

I think we've made a start in trimming the squad in this window, but my frustration is that it's primarily been loan deals - so we could be in the same position come the summer with an overloaded squad and players we don't want but no one else does either. Thus, again, restricting what we can do.

 

Agree with some of this, although Boufal I think we'll get a buyer for as long as the fee is £10-15m. Maybe more from a Middle East or Chinese club. Carrillo - done OK at a very small club and although Pellegrino was a disaster here, you'd have to say the same about him so far. So it does prove some players and managers suit certain leagues and situations. With Carrillo it depends how much we pay Monaco up front as he's only made half-a-dozen appearances for us. His wages aren't too hefty be all accounts and might be easier to shift then we think.

 

I also think Cedric is good value for that low fee, although hefty wages. I think he'll go, Inter or not. Clasie will probably settle for a % of his last 12 months wages for a small fee from Feyenoord.

 

The more difficult ones will be Fraser and Hoedt. Crazy decision and very inept by Les on Fraser but equal criticism aimed at Kreuger for not over-ruling him and getting rid of Les as well at the time. Obvious even to a non-football leader that Forster was shocking in 16/17 although under Pellegrino he really did regress staggeringly. Rodwell and Sunderland all over again - Fraser needs a loan to L1, L2 or non-league to keep fit for the rest of this campaign. Or take 25% of what's left and retire. Contract is a contract though and club can't force him. They apparantly have a good relationship with him, but the agent may have a say.

 

Hoedt - things have to get better than his Celta debut! Hopefully he can do enough to secure a £6-9m move somewhere, maybe Ajax or one of the bigger Belgian clubs? Or a promoted Bundesliga side? Going to have to take another bath though and learn the lesson that DoF/Vice Chair role is only for the mentally competent.

 

Austin we'll get a buyer for - Champ side wanting to go up.

 

Long will see out his last months as a squad player as RH likes him, but no extension.

 

All might look better in the summer but purely contingent on avoiding major injuries before then...

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Very Excited. Fresh Budgets

 

Hi Guan.... I'm trying to read between the lines here a bit (first time for everything...!)...

 

By "fresh" budgets, do you mean that there will be 'new' money made available rather than having to solely rely on player trading? Could our apparent reticence to spend in January be perhaps linked to needing to balance the books for this current football financial year (which ends in June?) but that those financial restrictions (self imposed or otherwise) are lifted once the new financial year starts? Just thinking out loud.

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Why are people suddenly expecting us to spend money in the summer?

 

We spend every summer. We spent like over £50 million last summer and agreed to spend another £20 million on Ings

 

Hi Guan.... I'm trying to read between the lines here a bit (first time for everything...!)...

 

By "fresh" budgets, do you mean that there will be 'new' money made available rather than having to solely rely on player trading? Could our apparent reticence to spend in January be perhaps linked to needing to balance the books for this current football financial year (which ends in June?) but that those financial restrictions (self imposed or otherwise) are lifted once the new financial year starts? Just thinking out loud.

 

Makes sense that we had a transfer budget for the season based on our income (largely TV money) and that most of it was used up in the summer, and that when fresh income comes in, i.e new TV money, we would have a new budget.

 

IMO pretty much every outside top 6 PL club can afford to spend about £30-40 million on transfers with little issue just from the TV money they rake in as long as they are not servicing massive debts.

 

Plus there is the whole FFP thing and I think in particular the wage bill, IIRC you can't increase your wage bill more certain amount each year to comply with FFP, so that is probably another restriction on us.

 

Big bloated squad on long term contracts.

 

As for Fraser Forster I have a slight worry we might have a Jack Rodwell situation on our hands where Fraser might just sit on his contract unwilling to take a pay cut to go somewhere lower, which looks likely as his only destination at the moment as his stock has fallen.

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  • 4 weeks later...
We spend every summer. We spent like over £50 million last summer and agreed to spend another £20 million on Ings

 

 

 

Makes sense that we had a transfer budget for the season based on our income (largely TV money) and that most of it was used up in the summer, and that when fresh income comes in, i.e new TV money, we would have a new budget.

 

IMO pretty much every outside top 6 PL club can afford to spend about £30-40 million on transfers with little issue just from the TV money they rake in as long as they are not servicing massive debts.

 

Plus there is the whole FFP thing and I think in particular the wage bill, IIRC you can't increase your wage bill more certain amount each year to comply with FFP, so that is probably another restriction on us.

 

Big bloated squad on long term contracts.

 

As for Fraser Forster I have a slight worry we might have a Jack Rodwell situation on our hands where Fraser might just sit on his contract unwilling to take a pay cut to go somewhere lower, which looks likely as his only destination at the moment as his stock has fallen.

 

Same can be said of Austin, we're stuck with him, no one will pay those wages, so he knows where he is well off

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  • 2 weeks later...
Seen a mention on bbc's gossip column of a recoe Martin from mk dons. Anyone know anything about him (I.e. Seen him play / proper insight ... I've done the Internet scouting thing)?
From Mirror article: -

 

"He gets a bit of stick sometimes because he is not the best player tactically and not always the most disciplined."

 

Sounds like he ticks all of Ross Wilson's boxes...

 

Sent from my F3311 using Tapatalk

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From Mirror article: -

 

"He gets a bit of stick sometimes because he is not the best player tactically and not always the most disciplined."

 

Sounds like he ticks all of Ross Wilson's boxes...

 

Sent from my F3311 using Tapatalk

 

Ha! 18 from what I gather, so maybe something that can be coached. Cheers for the snippet of info, though.

 

About 6 weeks at best before we can't thinking about players based on which league we're in next season I guess, though sounds like this one maybe one for the future anyway.

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We will need:

 

CB

RB

winger

striker

Playmaker

 

we probably won't get half of them.

 

Depends who comes back from the loans not made permanent. Then it’s the case of one out before someone new joins plus who from the u23s will join the first team.

 

I do have more faith in those promoted players proving their worth than the black box finding decent replacements.

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Depends who comes back from the loans not made permanent. Then it’s the case of one out before someone new joins plus who from the u23s will join the first team.

 

I do have more faith in those promoted players proving their worth than the black box finding decent replacements.

 

I reckon the club will reluctantly cut their losses on those loanees and accept knock-down fees for them, so I doubt we will see many/any of them back here next season.

 

The squad obviously needs major surgery and we have to clear some dead wood to make room for the kind of players Ralph wants to bring in.

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When you consider the cost of Les Reeds time here it could end up costing us £100m+

 

- his payoff

- Wilson's eventual payoff

- reduced gate receipts as fans stay away 2-3 years

- reduced TV and EPL monies due to lower league finishes

- 3x manager pay offs

- players signed for big fees/wages then sold off cheap

- FF and his wages

- sponsorship reduced (fair less attractive club now than 4-5 years ago)

- potential relegation

 

Can understand why owners are reluctant to chuck cash about, when you consider the sums wasted

 

Said at time - removing Les was just step 1. The clear up n recovery could take us years.

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I reckon the club will reluctantly cut their losses on those loanees and accept knock-down fees for them, so I doubt we will see many/any of them back here next season.

 

The squad obviously needs major surgery and we have to clear some dead wood to make room for the kind of players Ralph wants to bring in.

 

Can't see there being a knock down fee for Hoedt or Boufal if Celta are relegated (they are now in the bottom 3). A fee for Guido, optimistic. Clasie and Cedric maybe.

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Can't see there being a knock down fee for Hoedt or Boufal if Celta are relegated (they are now in the bottom 3). A fee for Guido, optimistic. Clasie and Cedric maybe.

 

Yeah, any future deals for these guys looks bleak.

 

I think we'd let Clasie leave for a nominal fee, but whether Feyenoord could get anywhere close to what he's on here, would be questionable.

 

Biggest problem is we still likely have large sums to pay on the Carrillo / Boufal / Hoedt deals.

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What I'd like to see in the summer.

1. Bring back boufal. Think it was a mistake to loan him out this season. Would be good to have someonee else with pace and ability to beat a man, if redmond can turn it around I see no reason boufal couldn't do the same.. could be like a new signing, deserves a fair chance under Ralph..

2 Augustin. Looks so pacy and with the technique to back it up, Ralph knows him well and he's not getting the game time at Leipzig.should be ideal signing for us but if we can't get him a striker should be priority anyway.

3 another cb. I don't think the 3 of bednarek yosh and vest are doing too badly, but if the reason Ralph thinks we need three at the back is because of lack of quality.. then we should probably try to get another decent cb.

 

Actually think these 3 additions could turn us around quite a lot we are looking fine in midfield and wing back positions are looking ok too bar maybe cover for valery.. but signing another one could block his progress.

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Game of opinions but those who are gagging for the return of Boufal are wrong IMO.

 

Best we can do is get £10m for him and move on woth players who actually suit the PL and RH style.

 

Boufal is just a mote skillful Elyounoussi. He isn't what RH wants. No real pace, not the best off the ball.

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