Sport Republic

[Lallana's Left Peg]

Most concerning part of that news is that Gao is understandably holding out to ensure he doesn't sell at a loss, but the state of our club and debt means 1 person has only valued the club at half the amount Gao wants.  Half!

So the upshot is that as long as Gao holds out for what seems to be an unrealistic price the club will slowly decay as it doesn't have a pot to piss in while the teams around us in the league spend £20m+ on players.  This only ends one way for us in the medium term...

Edited 28 April, 2021 by Lallana's Left Peg

[stevy777_x]

Lopez did not manage the Lille finances very well.

But it was done to compete at the top of the table of Ligue 1 and they now have loads of high value players that they can easily sell off (1 or 2) to make sure the finances are in order.

With champions league football and a potential Ligue 1 title they have done very well.

Lopez also has links to Luis Campos who brought in all the players at Lille and is excellent at identifying talent.

A definate upgrade on DaGrosa but that s not saying much.

[saint1977]

21 minutes ago, Lallana's Left Peg said:

Most concerning part of that news is that Gao is understandably holding out to ensure he doesn't sell at a loss, but the state of our club and debt means 1 person has only valued the club at half the amount Gao wants.  Half!

So the upshot is that as long as Gao holds out for what seems to be an unrealistic price the club will slowly decay as it doesn't have a pot to piss in while the teams around us in the league spend £20m+ on players.  This only ends one way for us in the medium term...

In which case Gao loses most if not all of his alleged £200m in the event of relegation to add to the seeming implosion at Lander. Makes you wonder how he ever made any money as he doesn’t seem to be much of a businessman.

Take £100-120m, take the loss of face and move on Jisheng. 

[benali-shorts]

26 minutes ago, stevy777_x said:

Lopez did not manage the Lille finances very well.

But it was done to compete at the top of the table of Ligue 1 and they now have loads of high value players that they can easily sell off (1 or 2) to make sure the finances are in order.

With champions league football and a potential Ligue 1 title they have done very well.

Lopez also has links to Luis Campos who brought in all the players at Lille and is excellent at identifying talent.

A definate upgrade on DaGrosa but that s not saying much.

I suspect Lopez's contribution to Lille can only be fairly judged once the impact of the debt repayments eventuates - God knows how they'll repay the remaining £120m debt with deflated player values and French football in a disastrous financial crisis, and how Lille will look in a couple of seasons' time after JP Morgan and Elliott Mgt have reviewed budgets . Campos did v well with lower-value player recruitment, but post Covid, that's going much more competitive in the Premier league, and particularly where traditionally richer / bigger clubs will be fishing in cheaper ponds (where Santos has traditionally excelled), with greater competition for lower priced players (who may previously have moved to eg French league by way of stepping stone). Santos would be an interesting consideration for the recruitment role, but no doubt his Lille role was linked to profits on player trading, which I'm not sure Gao would be quite so keen to share!

I'm not a big fan of the rolling dice of player trading profit to fund a club (pretty much what we've had for the last few seasons, only now with deflated player values, but player wages failing to decline accordingly), and Lopez's model seems to be that. Sadly, I'm not sure there will be any significantly different alternatives out there, despite how they'll market themselves. They'll all be gambling on increased TV revenues, with player trading to plug the shortfall.  

[Saint86]

18 hours ago, Matthew Le God said:

Gérard Lopez

Linked with a possible bid for Saints in this podcast...

https://www.spreaker.com/user/12250300/tottenham-lose-nagelsmann-consider-south

15min mark for anyone who is interested. He also sounds like he'd be a good man to take over given his very impressive record at lille. I can't see Gao accepting a £100m loss on the club however, purely from a face saving perspective. More likely that he'll hold out as long as possible to get as much money out of the club as he can, and then sell. 

Edited 28 April, 2021 by Saint86

[darren2]

If we have Lopez we'll be out of the frying pan and into the fire.  Most staff at Lotus F1 weren't paid and suppliers weren't paid when he was there, they had Bailiffs calling, and he never put anything into the team himself.  Only the money of others. 

Now he appears to have left a mess at Lille??

[Wurzel]

2 hours ago, saint1977 said:

In which case Gao loses most if not all of his alleged £200m in the event of relegation to add to the seeming implosion at Lander. Makes you wonder how he ever made any money as he doesn’t seem to be much of a businessman.

Take £100-120m, take the loss of face and move on Jisheng. 

Or maybe do a deal similar to some player transfers with a add on clauses.  Accept we're shit now and take £100m now with extras over next 5 years every year we stay up, win a cup, qualify for Europe etc.

[Saint86]

46 minutes ago, darren2 said:

Now he appears to have left a mess at Lille??

They're top of Ligue 1? 🤷‍♀️

[Heisenberg]

18 hours ago, Matthew Le God said:

Things actually got better after Cortese left... and then worse again 😉

#momentumcurve

[Dusic]

2 hours ago, Saint86 said:

15min mark for anyone who is interested. He also sounds like he'd be a good man to take over given his very impressive record at lille. I can't see Gao accepting a £100m loss on the club however, purely from a face saving perspective. More likely that he'll hold out as long as possible to get as much money out of the club as he can, and then sell. 

Good man to take over?

Jeez, you clearly haven't done a lot of research.

https://www.getfootballnewsfrance.com/2020/lille-president-gerard-lopez-on-the-brink-as-elliott-management-jp-morgan-come-calling/

Why do we always seem to be linked with the ones who have no money?

Very damning thread on Da Grosa, extremely worrying that he granted a period of exclusivity and just shows Gao,like KL before, will sell to anyone if the price is right.

 

[Mowgli]

So the only names to be suggested recently are Craig David and Gerard Lopez.  Between them they would struggle to buy Danny Ings let alone a football club. Which means they would have to borrow the money and rely on Saints making enough money through player sales etc just to pay the interest. Sounds like fun times! 

[SuperSAINT]

21 minutes ago, Dusic said:

Very damning thread on Da Grosa, extremely worrying that he granted a period of exclusivity and just shows Gao,like KL before, will sell to anyone if the price is right.

This is very true.  Gao has no interest in selling to the right people — just whoever pays him.

[Fan The Flames]

Just selling to anyone if the price is right shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, especially in a market with very few buyers. 

[Ivan Katalinic's 'tache]

16 minutes ago, SuperSAINT said:

This is very true.  Gao has no interest in selling to the right people — just whoever pays him.

But surely he will want to protect his legacy? Oh...

[nta786]

1 hour ago, Dusic said:

Why do we always seem to be linked with the ones who have no money?

Bit of an oxymoron that!

[SKD]

1 hour ago, Dusic said:

Good man to take over?

Jeez, you clearly haven't done a lot of research.

https://www.getfootballnewsfrance.com/2020/lille-president-gerard-lopez-on-the-brink-as-elliott-management-jp-morgan-come-calling/

Why do we always seem to be linked with the ones who have no money?

Very damning thread on Da Grosa, extremely worrying that he granted a period of exclusivity and just shows Gao,like KL before, will sell to anyone if the price is right.

 

Because we’d be a shit investment for anyone willing to actually part with their own cash. In our current state, We’ll only ever attract chancers looking to make a quick buck. 
 

[DT]

1 hour ago, SuperSAINT said:

This is very true.  Gao has no interest in selling to the right people — just whoever pays him.

Is there any evidence for this. I mean, it's believable, but is there any evidence? Genuine q

[Saint Billy]

Lopez surely wouldn't pass the fit and proper stuff especially now the FA have tightened up on it, hopefully. 

[rooney]

5 minutes ago, Saint Billy said:

Lopez surely wouldn't pass the fit and proper stuff especially now the FA have tightened up on it, hopefully. 

Especially when he wanted that hammer.

[Matthew Le God]

12 minutes ago, Saint Billy said:

Lopez surely wouldn't pass the fit and proper stuff especially now the FA have tightened up on it, hopefully. 

For what reason would he fail it?

[SKD]

12 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said:

For what reason would he fail it?

Dubious Previous ownership of sport teams and the fact his net worth wouldnt even pay for a premier league players contract. 
 

What’s to stop you or I just getting a high interest bank loan placed against the club and trying to take over? 

[Matthew Le God]

6 minutes ago, SKD said:

Dubious Previous ownership of sport teams and the fact his net worth wouldnt even pay for a premier league players contract. 
 

What’s to stop you or I just getting a high interest bank loan placed against the club and trying to take over? 

Does that actually break any rules though?

[SKD]

Just now, Matthew Le God said:

Does that actually break any rules though?

I don’t know, probably not. It quite clearly should though.... 

[Ex Lion Tamer]

1 hour ago, SKD said:

Because we’d be a shit investment for anyone willing to actually part with their own cash. In our current state, We’ll only ever attract chancers looking to make a quick buck. 
 

Are we in a worse state than when we were in administration in league 1 and got a great buyer?

Unless you mean we're a shit investment because we're in the Premier League and fairly close to the limits of our potential without serious huge investment

Edited 28 April, 2021 by Ex Lion Tamer

[TWar]

17 minutes ago, Ex Lion Tamer said:

Are we in a worse state than when we were in administration in league 1 and got a great buyer?

Unless you mean we're a shit investment because we're in the Premier League and fairly close to the limits of our potential without serious huge investment

We were a great investment in league one as we were at a rock bottom with all the potential to rise. Right now rising seems very tricky. Buy low, sell high as they say, we were low and now we are high so who would buy?

[Mowgli]

2 hours ago, SKD said:

Because we’d be a shit investment for anyone willing to actually part with their own cash. In our current state, We’ll only ever attract chancers looking to make a quick buck. 
 

If that were true there would be people queuing up.  The truth is it's impossible to make a quick buck out of a club our size.  The sooner people realise that the only way to operate a club our size is to use the sustainable model of the last 10 years, the better.  Then we can concentrate, not on the owner, but on the right coach and  CEO. Right now, despite the abysmal second half of the season, I believe we are in good hands with Ralph and Martin Semmens  

[Fan The Flames]

13 minutes ago, Mowgli said:

If that were true there would be people queuing up.  The truth is it's impossible to make a quick buck out of a club our size.  The sooner people realise that the only way to operate a club our size is to use the sustainable model of the last 10 years, the better.  Then we can concentrate, not on the owner, but on the right coach and  CEO. Right now, despite the abysmal second half of the season, I believe we are in good hands with Ralph and Martin Semmens  

The trouble is the sustainable model of the last ten years relies on players sales and that approach has got us in to this mess. It's not really a sustainable model as flipping players is a gamble.

[egg]

2 hours ago, SKD said:

Because we’d be a shit investment for anyone willing to actually part with their own cash. In our current state, We’ll only ever attract chancers looking to make a quick buck. 
 

Yep, you'd have to be mental to buy us. You'd never get your money back, and you'd have to pump in tens of millions to improve us but you'd never get that back either. Think how Gao feels having seen tens of millions spunked on our shit signings. 

[verlaine1979]

On 27/04/2021 at 03:35, Billy the Kidd said:

Like I said previously, it may not be viable, some investors would look at that type of development which includes buying the club, other, different types of investor also just look at standard investment portfolios, sale & leasebacks, that part of stuff.

 

You buy the club if there's an upside to owning the club. Villa were the example you gave previously, who were bought when they were in the championship, providing plenty of upside. We're already in the premier league, we're priced high for a business carrying 80m of debt, and we've got no high probability routes to increase revenue.

If Gao drops his price by about half, we might get a private equity buyer coming in. But they are only going to be interested in us as a kind of distressed asset where the upside is all in the discount (which is pretty much what da grosa was saying in the first place).

[Verbal]

2 minutes ago, verlaine1979 said:

You buy the club if there's an upside to owning the club. Villa were the example you gave previously, who were bought when they were in the championship, providing plenty of upside. We're already in the premier league, we're priced high for a business carrying 80m of debt, and we've got no high probability routes to increase revenue.

If Gao drops his price by about half, we might get a private equity buyer coming in. But they are only going to be interested in us as a kind of distressed asset where the upside is all in the discount (which is pretty much what da grosa was saying in the first place).

How much of that £80m is actual debt, as distinct from a line of credit?

[Billy the Kidd]

10 minutes ago, verlaine1979 said:

You buy the club if there's an upside to owning the club. Villa were the example you gave previously, who were bought when they were in the championship, providing plenty of upside. We're already in the premier league, we're priced high for a business carrying 80m of debt, and we've got no high probability routes to increase revenue.

If Gao drops his price by about half, we might get a private equity buyer coming in. But they are only going to be interested in us as a kind of distressed asset where the upside is all in the discount (which is pretty much what da grosa was saying in the first place).

Yeah i dont disagree. I mentioned Villa i think as i work for a company that is ultimately owned by their owner. I was making the point that some investors have many fingers in more pies.

[Mowgli]

1 hour ago, Fan The Flames said:

The trouble is the sustainable model of the last ten years relies on players sales and that approach has got us in to this mess. It's not really a sustainable model as flipping players is a gamble.

Only because we lost our way a bit.  Recruitment has been a lot better last couple of years and Hojbjerg is the only one to leave.  Add to that a significant increase in commercial income (eg Hummel and - sadly - the betting sponsor) and our potential is slowly moving in the right direction 

[JustinSFC]

2 hours ago, Mowgli said:

If that were true there would be people queuing up.  The truth is it's impossible to make a quick buck out of a club our size.  The sooner people realise that the only way to operate a club our size is to use the sustainable model of the last 10 years, the better.  Then we can concentrate, not on the owner, but on the right coach and  CEO. Right now, despite the abysmal second half of the season, I believe we are in good hands with Ralph and Martin Semmens  

That only worked well when you've got a Paul Mitchell pulling players out of his arse hole.

[Fan The Flames]

18 minutes ago, Mowgli said:

Only because we lost our way a bit.  Recruitment has been a lot better last couple of years and Hojbjerg is the only one to leave.  Add to that a significant increase in commercial income (eg Hummel and - sadly - the betting sponsor) and our potential is slowly moving in the right direction 

The point is it's easy to lose your way, as it's difficult to have a consistent hit rate. We got rid of Boufal and Carrillo at a loss, and we need to offload Lemina, Gunn, Elyounoussi & Hoedt. That's a big chunk of wage bill and a big loss of money and we have no headroom until they've gone.

[verlaine1979]

2 hours ago, Verbal said:

How much of that £80m is actual debt, as distinct from a line of credit?

Isn't it a loan secured against pretty much every asset the club owns? I can't remember the exact details, but I think repayment of the principal doesn't start for a few years, but interest payments have kicked in already.

[Verbal]

26 minutes ago, verlaine1979 said:

Isn't it a loan secured against pretty much every asset the club owns? I can't remember the exact details, but I think repayment of the principal doesn't start for a few years, but interest payments have kicked in already.

How it's secured isn't really relevant to how big the actual debt is.  I may have this wrong, but I thought it was an £80m line of credit but with little to no idea of how much the actual debt component was.  It's a it like having a £1000 credit limit but having a debt of only £100 - you only pay interest on the debt, not on the limit of credit.  As I say, I may have this wrong, and there's not a great deal of transparency about the loan, but it may be that the indebtedness isn't quite as high as one might imagine.

[Singapore Saint]

You can't choose your relatives and you can't choose your owners...

[verlaine1979]

7 hours ago, Verbal said:

How it's secured isn't really relevant to how big the actual debt is.  I may have this wrong, but I thought it was an £80m line of credit but with little to no idea of how much the actual debt component was.  It's a it like having a £1000 credit limit but having a debt of only £100 - you only pay interest on the debt, not on the limit of credit.  As I say, I may have this wrong, and there's not a great deal of transparency about the loan, but it may be that the indebtedness isn't quite as high as one might imagine.

In the most recent financial statement, 78.8m is listed as an amount falling due in 2025. Another loan is specifically called out as a 'revolving facility', so I'm assuming the MSD loan isn't that.

[tajjuk]

Apparently the government is looking to basically have the PL TV deals roll over at current prices without having the rights auction, which hopefully should provide some stability for potential investors as there was a worry that a renewed deal (due I think in 2022) would be at a lower rate, which would basically devalue all PL clubs. 

[Saint86]

So, has there been any solid news which implies someone with actual money being involved in buying us? Or is my private musing of, "We're going down with no money in the bank", a fairly reasonable expectation for the next couple of seasons? 😆

[East Kent Saint]

I see the Glaziers value Man U at £3 Billion and would sell for £4 Billion ! Their dream is to enhance the value to £7 Billion . As they take £millions in dividends each year , even when they make a loss , then I can't see them selling anytime soon .

Makes Saints seem cheap although we wouldn't have the same worldwide income if we were bought out.

[itchen]

On 28/04/2021 at 11:12, stevy777_x said:

Lopez did not manage the Lille finances very well.

But it was done to compete at the top of the table of Ligue 1 and they now have loads of high value players that they can easily sell off (1 or 2) to make sure the finances are in order.

With champions league football and a potential Ligue 1 title they have done very well.

Lopez also has links to Luis Campos who brought in all the players at Lille and is excellent at identifying talent.

A definate upgrade on DaGrosa but that s not saying much.

Jesus, Mary, Joseph and the wee donkey, we've found H/the fourth man.

[angelman]

6 hours ago, East Kent Saint said:

I see the Glaziers value Man U at £3 Billion and would sell for £4 Billion ! Their dream is to enhance the value to £7 Billion . As they take £millions in dividends each year , even when they make a loss , then I can't see them selling anytime soon .

Makes Saints seem cheap although we wouldn't have the same worldwide income if we were bought out.

We're the price of a Mbappe.

[Master Bates]

http://sportwitness.co.uk/businessman-offering-e125m-buy-southampton-bid-largely-jisheng-demands/

[ErwinK1961]

16 minutes ago, Master Bates said:

http://sportwitness.co.uk/businessman-offering-e125m-buy-southampton-bid-largely-jisheng-demands/

 

Values the squad at €260m...

[Dark Munster]

6 hours ago, angelman said:

We're the price of a Mbappe.

Could be worse. The Skates are probably worth about one Donkey. (Maybe I'm being over generous).

[skintsaint]

6 hours ago, Master Bates said:

http://sportwitness.co.uk/businessman-offering-e125m-buy-southampton-bid-largely-jisheng-demands/

You could have read older posts this thread and got that information 😄

[Saint Billy]

If I went to my local Chinese takeaway and offered half the price I'm pretty sure what the reaction be. 

[stknowle]

7 minutes ago, Saint Billy said:

If I went to my local Chinese takeaway and offered half the price I'm pretty sure what the reaction be. 

Yeah Gao should insist on full asking price, maybe throw in some prawn crackers.

[Gingeletiss]

If you go and buy a Roll Royce for 200g, then sell the doors, the tyres, the engine. Do not expect to get 200g when you want to sell it again.