Anyone starting to look nervously at the table?

[S-Clarke]

Just now, Lee On Solent Saint said:

Because most of that "possession" was us passing along the back four, passing to the midfield for them to pass back to the back four. They dominated us, Brighton. 

I'd use the term controlled rather than dominated tbh. They controlled the tempo and kept us playing at a distance. We didn't force it at all, but they had full control over this game and fully deserved the win.

[Matthew Le God]

2 minutes ago, Lee On Solent Saint said:

Because most of that "possession" was us passing along the back four, passing to the midfield for them to pass back to the back four. They dominated us, Brighton. 

It was still the majority of the ball regardless of whether it was effective or not at attacking. Therefore Brighton were not dominating us. 

[badgerx16]

6 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said:

No they didn't. We were in control as 60% of the possession shows but lacked creativity and struggled to break them down.

Posession stats are pointless if it's all in front of their defensive formation or in our half, as are completed pass stats as most of them are sideways or backwards. How many times did we get halfway into their half and the ball ended up with FF ?

[badgerx16]

1 minute ago, Matthew Le God said:

It was still the majority of the ball regardless of whether it was effective or not at attacking. Therefore Brighton were not dominating us. 

Well we sure as hell were not dominating them !

[Matthew Le God]

1 minute ago, badgerx16 said:

Posession stats are pointless if it's all in front of their defensive formation or in our half, as are completed pass stats as most of them are sideways or backwards. How many times did we get halfway into their half and the ball ended up with FF ?

Read my post in the context of what it was replying to. I was replying a post saying Brighton dominated us. I did not dispute the possession was not effective. My point was that we had most of the ball so were not being dominated. What we did with the ball I agree with you was fucking useless! 😃

[badgerx16]

4 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said:

Read my post in the context of what it was replying to. I was replying a post saying Brighton dominated us. I did not dispute the possession was not effective. My point was that we had most of the ball so were not being dominated. What we did with the ball I agree with you was fucking useless! 😃

By your logic we were also not 'dominated' by Everton, Leeds, and Wolves.

( Edit - and we certainly dominated Newcastle ).

Edited 14 March, 2021 by badgerx16

[Chapel End]

2 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

By your logic we were also not 'dominated' by Everton, Leeds, and Wolves.

And he's right, play the post not the poster 

[badgerx16]

2 minutes ago, Chapel End said:

And he's right, play the post not the poster 

To 'Dominate' means to have control and the position of power, it does not necessarily mean to have the greater proportion of ball possession. In all those games in which we have held the majority of possession, have we ever shown that we are in the position of power and control ? How many World Champion boxers have been counter-punchers - always moving backwards, drawing the opponent on, allowing a lot of ineffective jabs, then unleashing a devastating blow at the opportune moment ? Would the opponent be said to have dominated the fight ?

Edited 14 March, 2021 by badgerx16

[Chapel End]

6 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

To 'Dominate' means to have control and the position of power, it does not necessarily mean to have the greater proportion of ball possession. In all those games in which we have held the majority of possession, have we ever shown that we are in the position of power and control ? How many World Champion boxers have been counter-punchers - always moving backwards, drawing the opponent on, allowing a lot of ineffective jabs, then unleashing a devastating blow at the opportune moment ? Would the opponent be said to have dominated the fight ?

No just won it

 

[JRM]

Fulham v Leeds 

Brighton v Newcastle 

Couple of games of interest next weekend. 

I still feel we won't be much above the drop come the end of May, 

 

[Chapel End]

Just now, JRM said:

Fulham v Leeds 

Brighton v Newcastle 

Couple of games of interest next weekend. 

I still feel we won't be much above the drop come the end of May, 

 

As long as we are

[JRM]

1 hour ago, Chapel End said:

As long as we are

It's going to be close! 

[Toussaint]

5 hours ago, Micky said:

Unfortunately for us the players will not realise that they are in a relegation battle until its too late and they are down. 

I’m not sure a lot of them care that much, I presume some think they are much better than they are and believe they will be snapped up, I think they may be disappointed 

[stknowle]

2 hours ago, Matthew Le God said:

No they didn't. We were in control as 60% of the possession shows but lacked creativity and struggled to break them down.

I think it's now well established that having the majority of possession doesn't necessarily equal being in control of the match. It's kind of been worked out that - especially against us - teams can sit back without the ball for (sometimes long) periods of the game but still be the better team and win the match.

[austsaint]

8 hours ago, JRM said:

We might stumble over the line, but if the season went on much longer we'd be nailed on relegation candidates 

That's a key observation.  We're like a horse kicking several lengths clear down a short home straight and falling in to win by a head.

[Teddeer]

3 hours ago, stknowle said:

I think it's now well established that having the majority of possession doesn't necessarily equal being in control of the match. It's kind of been worked out that - especially against us - teams can sit back without the ball for (sometimes long) periods of the game but still be the better team and win the match.

Indeed and we were always far more successful in games when we had less possession than our opponents.

[JRM]

Fulham will play twice before we play again in the league (Leeds and Villa) 

Newcastle play once (Brighton) 

Results from those games are huge, if we turn up to The Burnley game only 3 or 4 points from the drop I'm not sure our mentally fragile squad will be able to handle the pressure. 

[SaintTex]

Liverpool and Sheff United are the only clubs we have beaten since December 7th.

Edited 16 March, 2021 by SaintTex

[Turkish]

19 hours ago, JRM said:

Fulham will play twice before we play again in the league (Leeds and Villa) 

Newcastle play once (Brighton) 

Results from those games are huge, if we turn up to The Burnley game only 3 or 4 points from the drop I'm not sure our mentally fragile squad will be able to handle the pressure. 

On current form you'd say Fulham will beat us, we dont tend to do particularly well against Burnley (one win in our last eight i think), bit of a mixed bag against Palace so got to hope we can pick up three points against West Brom and maybe a few draws.

[Sheaf Saint]

25 minutes ago, SaintTex said:

Liverpool and Sheff United are the only clubs we have beaten since December 7th.

Not strictly true because we have also beaten Shrewsbury, Arsenal and Wolves in that time as well. But I realise this thread is about the threat of relegation so it's understandable that you are only referring to the league.

[LiberalCommunist]

Not strictly true because we have also beaten Shrewsbury, Arsenal and Wolves in that time as well

------------------------

 

Indeed. But in unusual circumstances we played both teams after defeating their weakened teams in the cup.......and lost. 

So perhaps highlights the state of the cup rather than our skewed bad form. 

[rallyboy]

I'm no doom monger but I keep hearing pundits saying we are okay - can they not see the really obvious path opening up to a very nervous season finale?

We just need a fucking win or we're going to be right in the shit, very soon.

If I was Fulham right now I would be thinking that one of the teams above will fail and we will catch them.

Let's just hope it's Newcastle.

[Mr Saints]

Fulham will stay up IMO, they have the quality and the spirit to survive.

Up until last weekend I thought it would be Newcastle or Brighton they would catch. Now I'd add us to that list after Sunday's shit show.

[Ivan Katalinic's 'tache]

According to the Athletic, Ralph has made 75 substitutions in the 29 games this season and they have yielded 3 goals and no assists. Only Burnley, Villa and WBA are worse. When we talk about small squads, does this hint at an even stronger reliance on our first XI than the rest of the league? Clearly, this stat can't just be taken at face value because some of those substitutions may have been very late and too late to make any real impact (Diallo had a few 5 minute cameos at first and N'Lundulu gets a customary minute or two when we're desperate) but it does give the impression who we bring on makes no difference or even makes it worse and maybe our squad depth is even weaker than it appears.

[redkeith]

Excuse the format, but here are  Newcastle's remaining fixtures.  Their last two look winnable but the rest could be very tricky. 

If we get 2 more points from the next 7 games than Newcastle do, then we will be safe.  

 

Premier League

21:00

Brighton   Newcastle

Sunday 4 April 2021

Premier League

15:05

Newcastle   Spurs

Sunday 11 April 2021

Premier League

13:00

Burnley   Newcastle

Saturday 17 April 2021

Premier League

16:00

Newcastle   West Ham

Saturday 24 April 2021

Premier League

16:00

Liverpool   Newcastle

Saturday 1 May 2021

Premier League

16:00

Newcastle   Arsenal

Saturday 8 May 2021

Premier League

16:00

Leicester   Newcastle

Wednesday 12 May 2021

Premier League

20:45

Newcastle   Man City

Saturday 15 May 2021

Premier League

16:00

Newcastle   Sheff Utd

Sunday 23 May 2021

Premier 

16:00

Fulham   Newcastle

[Saint86]

Usually there is one team that drops down into the mire.... If saints go into the liverpool game without having won, then its us 🤣

I think we all fear that Fulham are going to get out of it and catch Newcastle as a minimum - I've suspected it ever since they battered Liverpool and were robbed of the 3 points by yet another Liverpool dive, settling for a 1-1 draw. West Brom and Sheffield are down imo

Edited 5 May, 2021 by Saint86

[cloggy saint]

I don't understand the wank-fest surrounding Fulham, they looked shit against City.

[St Louis]

25 minutes ago, cloggy saint said:

I don't understand the wank-fest surrounding Fulham, they looked shit against City.

Who doesn't?

I think they look a better side than most of the other bottom half, dont concede many, have a bit of fight, etc and have given themselves a chance.

[BotleySaint]

For some reason I have only just clocked the fact after the cup game this weekend we have over 2 weeks break until the Burnley game. After that, another week till a Monday night kick off against West Brom. That break is Ralph's chance to prove himself. How we perform against Burnley should decide what happens next with him. At that point he'll have had several days training, getting across his ideas, having players back from injury (as we have barely any internationals) and there really will be no excuse for not seeing an improvement. 

If we still play with heads down, wide open at the back, and no clue going forward, then that'll be me done with him. As, regardless of his potential as a manager, it will be clear he cannot raise this group.

Edited 17 March, 2021 by BotleySaint

[vince]

1 hour ago, redkeith said:

Excuse the format, but here are  Newcastle's remaining fixtures.  Their last two look winnable but the rest could be very tricky. 

If we get 2 more points from the next 7 games than Newcastle do, then we will be safe.  

 

 

That does look tricky.  Our game against Fulham could prove crucial to us, Fulham and Newcastle as their last game against Fulham could turn out to be a straight shoot out.  The last 10 games or so do usually throw up odd results though.  Man City may have won the league and put out a second string by the time they play Newcastle, Sheffield United will already be down and might play without fear and get a result.  The quicker we get 3 or 4 more points, the better!

[VectisSaint]

45 minutes ago, BotleySaint said:

For some reason I have only just clocked the fact after the cup game this weekend we have over 2 weeks break until the Burnley game. After that, another week till a Monday night kick off against West Brom. That break is Ralph's chance to prove himself. How we perform against Burnley should decide what happens next with him. At that point he'll have had several days training, getting across his ideas, having players back from injury (as we have barely any internationals) and there really will be no excuse for not seeing an improvement. 

If we still play with heads down, wide open at the back, and no clue going forward, then that'll be me done with him. As, regardless of his potential as a manager, it will be clear he cannot raise this group.

Problem is that during the 2 week break a large number of players will be away playing up to 3 games, so no rest and no club training. 

[BotleySaint]

2 hours ago, VectisSaint said:

Problem is that during the 2 week break a large number of players will be away playing up to 3 games, so no rest and no club training. 

Do we have that many internationals? I'll be honest, I didn't check but just assumed not.

[Forester]

5 hours ago, Ivan Katalinic's 'tache said:

According to the Athletic, Ralph has made 75 substitutions in the 29 games this season and they have yielded 3 goals and no assists. Only Burnley, Villa and WBA are worse. When we talk about small squads, does this hint at an even stronger reliance on our first XI than the rest of the league? Clearly, this stat can't just be taken at face value because some of those substitutions may have been very late and too late to make any real impact (Diallo had a few 5 minute cameos at first and N'Lundulu gets a customary minute or two when we're desperate) but it does give the impression who we bring on makes no difference or even makes it worse and maybe our squad depth is even weaker than it appears.

I am generally a big Ralph fan, albeit critical of his in-game management which I think is his weakness.  Even so I would be careful with this stat as I actually think part of the problem is twofold:

 

- he often leaves subs too late, so not surprising they haven’t yielded many goals or assists

- on several occasions I would have liked us to shore up our position in games when we are winning and be more cautious.  This won’t be popular with many fans but, if I had a magic wand, I’d like to see Ralph approach for the first hour and Puel approach for the last 30 mins!  
 

So I am less interested in how many goals and assists the subs generate and more interested in the score line at the time of sub and then the end result.  On that basis Ralph definitely has a big development area 

 

[The Cat]

2 hours ago, BotleySaint said:

Do we have that many internationals? I'll be honest, I didn't check but just assumed not.

Adams, Bednarek, Vestergaard, Diallo, Armstrong, Djenepo. Minamino? Salisu?

 

[Lee On Solent Saint]

1 hour ago, The Cat said:

Adams, Bednarek, Vestergaard, Diallo, Armstrong, Djenepo. Minamino? Salisu?

 

Possibly Ward Prowse?

[JRM]

13 minutes ago, Lee On Solent Saint said:

Possibly Ward Prowse?

Yeah so 8 or 9 first teamers reporting back just a couple of days before the Burnley game, not ideal. Even Jankewitz could be away with the Swiss u21s 

[Saint-Reece]

I may have imagined this but didn't Ralph say he wouldn't let players go play for their international teams if they have to travel abroad and self isolate on their return (is that still happening?) apologies if I have just made that up...!

[S-Clarke]

12 minutes ago, Saint-Reece said:

I may have imagined this but didn't Ralph say he wouldn't let players go play for their international teams if they have to travel abroad and self isolate on their return (is that still happening?) apologies if I have just made that up...!

No, he did say that. You didn't make it up.

Clubs were being quite vocal about it a few weeks ago, but it's all gone a bit quiet now and we all seem to be assuming that the international break is going to happen as normal. That's going to stitch a lot of clubs up with regards to the quarantine rules.

[VectisSaint]

59 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

No, he did say that. You didn't make it up.

Clubs were being quite vocal about it a few weeks ago, but it's all gone a bit quiet now and we all seem to be assuming that the international break is going to happen as normal. That's going to stitch a lot of clubs up with regards to the quarantine rules.

The point is that places players may have to go to which would force them to quarantine on return has not increased, significantly Portugal has been removed from the red list, so the reality is that very few would be affected in this international break, possibly our African players, but not even sure about that. Most red list countries are South America, Southern Africa and Qatar. 

[Give it to Ron]

11 hours ago, JRM said:

Yeah so 8 or 9 first teamers reporting back just a couple of days before the Burnley game, not ideal. Even Jankewitz could be away with the Swiss u21s 

Given that we could have used him to shut down games play in middle of a 5 but not played one minute speaks volumes.

 

[Matthew Le God]

Newcastle won't be catching us

[JRM]

On 17/03/2021 at 20:36, JRM said:

Yeah so 8 or 9 first teamers reporting back just a couple of days before the Burnley game, not ideal. Even Jankewitz could be away with the Swiss u21s 

Has anyone seen a full list of players called up? I've seen Vestergaard, Bednarek, Ward-Prowse, Armstrong, Adams confirmed so far, not sure on Diallo and Djenepo. 

Won't leave Ralph much to work with.  

3 international games squeezed into 2 weeks at this stage of the season is ridiculous. Guessing our next opponents Burnley will be able to give most of their first team a rest during that time. 

[woodsaint1]

10 hours ago, JRM said:

Has anyone seen a full list of players called up? I've seen Vestergaard, Bednarek, Ward-Prowse, Armstrong, Adams confirmed so far, not sure on Diallo and Djenepo. 

Won't leave Ralph much to work with.  

3 international games squeezed into 2 weeks at this stage of the season is ridiculous. Guessing our next opponents Burnley will be able to give most of their first team a rest during that time. 

The under 21 Euros start next week and Diallo wasnt named in the France squad I dont think. To have only 5/6 away isnt bad, plus we should have Ings and Walcott back in training hopefully.

Burnley will have the same if not more away on international duty - Pope, McNeill, Gudmundsson, Brady, Long and Vydra off the top of my head. 

It affects all PL teams so not much of an advantage the international break

[Cartman]

Just seen Newcastle's remaining fixtures. They'll do well to even reach our current points total. We're fine.

[Give it to Ron]

Still think we need 4 more points to be sure Newcastle have a few winnable games and once get their forwards back.

Its really down to us if we don’t win at least 2 then we deserve to go .

Need Ings and Theo firing and no more injuries we have had our share 

[Matthew Le God]

6 minutes ago, Give it to Ron said:

Still think we need 4 more points to be sure Newcastle have a few winnable games

You think they'll get 10 points from...

Arsenal

Spurs

Liverpool

Man City

West Ham

Leicester

Sheffield Utd

Burnley

Fulham

If 3 of those 10 points come vs Fulham on the final day... then that is 3 points Fulham won't be getting to catch us.

[vince]

Football365 have produced a table analysing the average opposition position of each team in this article - https://www.football365.com/news/arsenal-and-liverpool-top-premier-league-run-in-table

Seems Brighton have the hardest, with an average position of 8.1, then West Brom and Palace (8.4).  Newcastle are 6th hardest with 9.3.  We are placed roughly in the middle with 10.7, marginally better than Fulhams rating of 10.5.

[skintsaint]

10 clear with 8 to play? ....would be a big shock for us now not to pick up any points between now and the end of the season. 

[SaintBobby]

I doubt we need any more points. Maybe need to pick up one more. But we are 250/1 to get relegated now.

[Lighthouse]

Nothing says, "we’re going to scythe down a ten point deficit," quite like collapsing to defeat against an out of sorts Villa, with no Grealish and nothing to play for.