Who leaves if we are relegated?

[Chez]

If, and it's not assured, players have a relegation clause that reduces their wages by a percentage, it is likely that the contract will also include another clause that moderates the amount we can sell them for. No player wants to be tied into a five year contract on half the money they thought they were going to get AND not be able to depart because we can hold out for £50m or whatever. Any agent worth his salt will ensure that doesn't happen.

I have no idea which players have contracts with a drop in wages based on relegation (it might be some, it might be all of them), but equally there may be quite a few that have relegation clauses with `lower' than you expect fees - as was the case with Pope.

 

Edited 6 April, 2023 by Chez

[OldNick]

25 minutes ago, stevy777_x said:

Sulemana and Alcaraz are not going to stay

Bella Kotchap is a German international. And so I'd add him to your 2 to leave

[disconnect]

Someone else mentioned the winning mentality. The nails have been hammered into the coffin the past few years with Semmens and others constantly spouting the 'we're lucky to be here' rubbish, instilling the 'at least we turned up' mentality rather than the 'this isnt good enough and we should be beating Bournemouth, Forest, Palace, Fulham etc' attitude we should have. So I hope he goes!

Of players, Lavia and KWP are almost certain and sounds like Salisu too. A promoted team will probably come in for someone like Adams, and hope he can convert 1 in 10 chances. Some of the new guys wont want to play in the Championship. Hope we havent really annoyed Edozie who will be a good player for us next year whatever division we're in. 

[bugenhagen]

Who leaves? Hopefully all of them

Keep most of this team together, and they will lose their way stragth down to the next division.

[Saint_Jonny]

3 hours ago, LeBizzier69 said:

Already looking forward to all the excuses i'm going to hear from some "massive fans" as to why they aren't renewing.....like last time.

If this season had been a blip, we'd performed shit and went down fighting you would be right to critisise the non-renewing fan. The reality is that the St Marys going fan has had an absolutely appaling time of it for what...4 or 5 years now? We have won absolutely fuck all games at home for years. What is it in the last 12 months, like 3 home wins? I don't blame anyone who finds something better to do on a saturday afternoon. 

[Saint Matty 76]

3 hours ago, LeBizzier69 said:

Already looking forward to all the excuses i'm going to hear from some "massive fans" as to why they aren't renewing.....like last time.

What kind of nonsense is this? Not a single person should be blamed for not spending upwards of £500 to watch what we have for the past few years. 

[hypochondriac]

1 hour ago, stevy777_x said:

Sulemana and Alcaraz are not going to stay

I don't think we can say that with certainty. Unless we have some sort of agreement with them that they can leave if we get relegated, they must have known it was a very real possibility in January. 

[hypochondriac]

1 hour ago, OldNick said:

Bella Kotchap is a German international. And so I'd add him to your 2 to leave

How many teams have got relegated and immediately sold ten first teams starters? Not going to happen.

[LeBizzier69]

I don’t blame anyone at all, it’s up to the individual to decide.

What I don’t like is people jumping on the bandwagon and giving it the big “lifelong saints supporter” bull, and then when we get relegated saying it’s due to finances…..I’m sure they’d keep spending the ££ on tickets in the PL.

I’d rather they just be honest and say “I’m not spending my weekends watching championship football”. Absolutely fair enough. 
They’ll find the money again when we go up, hence attendances going from 18-20k to 30k.

 

[SW5 SAINT]

5 hours ago, S-Clarke said:

I think that only kicks in from 2024 - might be wrong, but I'm sure I've read that (or is that when it expires??) 

But if it only kicks in from 2024 then they'd have to pay the going rate, which will be £50m plus imo.

Either way City must have a massive sell on percentage of any fee…….

[LeBizzier69]

56 minutes ago, Saint Matty 76 said:

What kind of nonsense is this? Not a single person should be blamed for not spending upwards of £500 to watch what we have for the past few years. 

Agree completely. But we all know that if we stayed up but were still playing crap football they’d renew.

By and large people don’t renew due to dropping into the championship, nothing to do with the quality of football.

[The Cat]

All the away fans in the home ends.

[OldNick]

1 hour ago, hypochondriac said:

How many teams have got relegated and immediately sold ten first teams starters? Not going to happen.

There has to be a first time. Do you feel that our team of 'heroes' are going to sacrifice their future for our cause at the detriment of their own careers? Their agents will be phoning around getting feelers.

 

[hypochondriac]

2 minutes ago, OldNick said:

There has to be a first time. Do you feel that our team of 'heroes' are going to sacrifice their future for our cause at the detriment of their own careers? Their agents will be phoning around getting feelers.

 

The fact it hasn't happened before and we aren't really very different from any other team that's been relegated in the past five years suggests it's unlikely to happen this time either. Teams always lose less players than some expect. We will probably so no to some of them. 

[OldNick]

1 minute ago, hypochondriac said:

The fact it hasn't happened before and we aren't really very different from any other team that's been relegated in the past five years suggests it's unlikely to happen this time either. Teams always lose less players than some expect. We will probably so no to some of them. 

We have so called young talents, thats the difference. Anyway time will tell.

[Alanh]

1 hour ago, hypochondriac said:

The fact it hasn't happened before and we aren't really very different from any other team that's been relegated in the past five years suggests it's unlikely to happen this time either. Teams always lose less players than some expect. We will probably so no to some of them. 

Just as an example, Burnley sold 4 players at the end of last season - Cornet, Collins, McNeill and Pope for a reported total of €73M.  In addition they released a load of first team regulars from the last couple of seasons on frees or on loan including Mee, Tarkowski, Weghorst, Westwood, Lowton, Vydra, Pieters, Hennessy.  I remember they had a horrible situation with loads of contracts expiring hence the high number of players released on a free, but it's not a million miles different at Watfrod or Norwich (although the transfer fees received are tiny compared to Burnley).

It wouldn't be completely out of the ordinary for Saints to lose 10 of the current first team squad either sold or on loan after relegation.

[hypochondriac]

1 hour ago, Alanh said:

Just as an example, Burnley sold 4 players at the end of last season - Cornet, Collins, McNeill and Pope for a reported total of €73M.  In addition they released a load of first team regulars from the last couple of seasons on frees or on loan including Mee, Tarkowski, Weghorst, Westwood, Lowton, Vydra, Pieters, Hennessy.  I remember they had a horrible situation with loads of contracts expiring hence the high number of players released on a free, but it's not a million miles different at Watfrod or Norwich (although the transfer fees received are tiny compared to Burnley).

It wouldn't be completely out of the ordinary for Saints to lose 10 of the current first team squad either sold or on loan after relegation.

TBF I said first team starters. We will lose the likes of Walcott, orisic or Larios but I didn't count them. 

[Mr X]

Mods can we get the if in the thread title changed to when  😜

[hassan kachloul]

My guess for starting 11 the first game of next season:

Bazunu

Livramento (if fit), Bednarak, Lyanco, Larios

Diallo, Alcaraz

Adam Armstrong, Aribo, Djenepo

Mara

On the bench:

Elyounoussi

Onuachu

Bree

McCarthy

Edozie

 

Basically reckon these will stay in the Prem: Bella-Kotchap, Lavia, Ward-Prowse, Walker Peters, Che Adams, Tella

These will head back to Europe, probably on loan because their wages will be too big for a permanent move: Salisu, Orsic, Perraud, Stuart Armstrong (back to Scotland), Sulemana

Squad's looking a bit thin after all that

 

 

 

[hassan kachloul]

4 minutes ago, hassan kachloul said:

My guess for starting 11 the first game of next season:

Bazunu

Livramento (if fit), Bednarak, Lyanco, Larios

Diallo, Alcaraz

Adam Armstrong, Aribo, Djenepo

Mara

On the bench:

Elyounoussi

Onuachu

Bree

McCarthy

Edozie

 

Basically reckon these will stay in the Prem: Bella-Kotchap, Lavia, Ward-Prowse, Walker Peters, Che Adams, Tella

These will head back to Europe, probably on loan because their wages will be too big for a permanent move: Salisu, Orsic, Perraud, Stuart Armstrong (back to Scotland), Sulemana

Squad's looking a bit thin after all that

 

 

 

Actually, scratch out Elyounoussi - just seen his contract is up in June.  Same as Walcott and Caballero in goal.

For the rest of the squad, Salisu, Diallo, Stuart Armstrong and Che Adams' contracts are all up in June 2024 so can see Diallo and Stuart Armstrong's contracts being paid off to let them go on a free.

 

[SaintStinger]

All of them I hope.

[Convict Colony]

It will be like the titanic

[Chris cooper]

New GK needed .. the kid isn’t nowhere near ready.. send him out on loan to Alloa Athletic next season for his jank distribution!!

[Chez]

 

2 hours ago, hassan kachloul said:

Salisu, Diallo, Stuart Armstrong and Che Adams' contracts are all up in June 2024 so can see Diallo and Stuart Armstrong's contracts being paid off to let them go on a free.

We ain't paying contracts off.  The spunking of Dragon's millions will need to stop.

[SaintJackoInHurworth]

I am not sure as many will definitely leave as some think. Here are a few thoughts:

Highly likely to leave for a decent transfer fee

JWP  He will be in massive demand and will want to be playing in the Premier League in order to stand a chance of getting into the England squad in 2024.

KWP  Like JWP he will want to play in the EPL and will want to try to impress Southgate to get in the England squad.

Adams  He has been mentioned by a number of pundits as someone who they think is a decent striker and we have seen some interest in signing him in previous seasons. Even though he is not really a PL quality striker I can imagine someone will take a punt on him and with the right fee he may well leave.

Tella  Burnley are bound to want to keep him and he is bound to want to stay with them. I don't think we will stand in his way.

May leave but may not

ABK  Has he done enough to attract attention of other PL clubs? What about his tendency to get injured? Will Saints let him go when we only signed him last summer? We could demand a fairly large fee and will other clubs be prepared to pay that?

Lavia  Of course there will be a lot of speculation about him and a lot of interest and no doubt he will be interested in pursuing those opportunities, but there must be questions around the buy-back clause with City - does that have to be included in any deal to sell him? Also, is there some possibility that Lavia may want to wait until 2024 to get his chance to return to City? Or might Saints prefer to wait and see if the opportunity to sell him back to City for a large fee may materialise? I expect he will go but there may be some significant reasons to doubt it.

Salisu  Is he rated highly enough by other clubs to buy him after a season when he has not set the world alight? Will they be prepared to pay enough for Saints to allow him to go?

Unlikely to leave

Alcaraz/Sulemana/Onuachu/Mara/Edozie  Whatever promise they may have I don't think any of them have done quite enough to warrant another PL seeking to buy them for anything higher than what we paid for them. They are young and will improve and could do well in the Championship, so I think we will seek to keep them and seek to yield a profit from them in the future as that is our model, like it or not. The most likely to leave of this lot is probably Alcaraz but only if we get back what we paid for him or at least close to that.

Livramento  No club will take a risk on a player that he been out injured for more than a year.

Summer Challenges

• Trimming down the squad, particularly by getting rid of the fringe players. It is a no-brainer that there will be some who we will want to move on, but will we be able to do so?
• Replacing JWP - especially if Lavia is also sold. Smallbone could be brought back but is that enough? Even in the Championship a central midfield of Smallbone and Diallo (if he stays) would not give me huge confidence!
• Will we rely on the current squad or seek to sign a striker?
• Will we seek to promote Ballard, Payne, Dibling, Amo-Ameyaw, Doyle or any others to the first team? (Personally I suspect Ballard is the only one that is close to being ready to make that step, but who knows?)
• Finding a manager who can lead us straight back up.

Edited 9 April, 2023 by SaintJackoInHurworth

[qwertyell]

45 minutes ago, SaintJackoInHurworth said:

Salisu ... Will they be prepared to pay enough for Saints to allow him to go?

Yes. We'll take £10m-£15m to somewhat break even, with his contract into its final year. 

Chump change for any PL club, and he'll have admirers in France, Spain, Germany and beyond at that price. 

[Suhari]

I wonder if we'll see our younger 'investment' type playes go out on loan to PL clubs?

SR might choose to try and increase their value for another season, rather than cashing in now. Would make sense for their business model, depending on how they factor in relegation of course.

[Cabrone]

If we could keep Adams and Armstrong up front we'd have 2 strikers who know the champ and should do well.

JWP, Salisu and KWP will be off.

The rest? I don't care about them but I suspect most will stay, mainly because no-one in the prem will have them.

[AlexLaw76]

Just now, Cabrone said:

If we could keep Adams and Armstrong up front we'd have 2 strikers who know the champ and should do well.

JWP, Salisu and KWP will be off.

The rest? I don't care about them but I suspect most will stay, mainly because no-one in the prem will have them.

Lavia?

Gone, regardless IMO

[CB Fry]

Lavia will leave. Forget buy back clauses and all that shite. No over thinking required.

He's breaking into his national side in a season with Euro 24 at the end of it. He will not be playing in the Championship.

Either City buy him back and loan him to Fulham/Palace/whoever or someone big (Arse/Spurs) comes  in a splams  £40m on him and City let him go.

There is a scenario that City sign him for their own squad but feels unlikely.

Either way the only unknown is where he will go, not if he will go. 

[Crab Lungs]

I was thinking about the must haves post-Citeh for the Champ.

Adams and Armstrong should be a decent forward line and if we can somehow keep Tella and get him functioning here that would also be excellent.

McCarthy will be fine for the Champ.

Would love to keep ahold of Sulemana and Alcaraz but that might be wishful thinking. 

DCC should be fine and probably the sort of defensive leader we need in a mud and guts league.

Perraud would be ok also. Bree as well, maybe.

I see Tall Paul being a Carillo style write off, loaned to somewhere in Europe to get rid of his wages. Same with Orsic. Until their contracts run down.

KWP, JWP, Salisu and Lavia will be off, no way they’re staying. 

Don’t care much for the other City ‘starlets’ Bazunu, Edozie and Larios. Larios will certainly be completely unsuitable for the Championship if he doesn’t pack on a bit of muscle and height in the summer.

Diallo and S Armstrong not too bothered about either. 

ABK will go and I suspect Bednarek has had enough of us as much as we’ve had of him. 

AMN will return to Arsenal, Moi, Theo and Willy are all out of contract in the summer. I see zero reason to keep any of the above.

Mara - really not sure what to do with him. Or Aribo.

Tino - if we can persuade him to stay and keep him fit, he’ll be useful in the Championship and the regular football with us, if only for a season, should see his stock rise further.

Djenepo will probably linger around and be in and out of the lineups in varying positions next season.

Somehow we have to find a balance between trimming the fat, persuading some players who can give us a good chance of a promotion push and moving on deadwood. Hell of a challenge.

Edited 9 April, 2023 by Crab Lungs

[beatlesaint]

6 hours ago, SaintJackoInHurworth said:

May leave but may not

ABK  Has he done enough to attract attention of other PL clubs? What about his tendency to get injured? Will Saints let him go when we only signed him last summer? We could demand a fairly large fee and will other clubs be prepared to pay that?

Lavia  Of course there will be a lot of speculation about him and a lot of interest and no doubt he will be interested in pursuing those opportunities, but there must be questions around the buy-back clause with City - does that have to be included in any deal to sell him? Also, is there some possibility that Lavia may want to wait until 2024 to get his chance to return to City? Or might Saints prefer to wait and see if the opportunity to sell him back to City for a large fee may materialise? I expect he will go but there may be some significant reasons to doubt it.

Salisu  Is he rated highly enough by other clubs to buy him after a season when he has not set the world alight? Will they be prepared to pay enough for Saints to allow him to go?

 

Wishful thinking I'm afraid. they will all go.

The only good thing is with those going plus JWP and KWP obviously is the amount of money we should bring in to rebuild. I know you dont get or can command quite so much once youve gone down BUT if more than one club want a player that'll bump it back up a few million.

Edited 9 April, 2023 by beatlesaint

[Hodgey]

The problem is speed. Ideally you would want to sell and buy quickly so you know what you have pre-season, but to maximise value we probably need to sell at the end of the window.

This means we’re going to have a very turbulent pre-season, which will probably see us start slowly as we build a new team. So it’s going to require patience and good will - something that frankly is in short supply.

There is an argument to take a financial hit and get the business done early. But I don’t think we have the mentality or ability to do that.

Expect long drawn out transfer sagas, inertia in signings as we try and sell/loan players, and a fair few unhappy players causing issues when the window closes. Of course you also can’t really get going until you have a manager in who tells you who they do / don’t want….

Wilcox is going to have a very busy start.

[Lee On Solent Saint]

30 minutes ago, Hodgey said:

The problem is speed. Ideally you would want to sell and buy quickly so you know what you have pre-season, but to maximise value we probably need to sell at the end of the window.

This means we’re going to have a very turbulent pre-season, which will probably see us start slowly as we build a new team. So it’s going to require patience and good will - something that frankly is in short supply.

There is an argument to take a financial hit and get the business done early. But I don’t think we have the mentality or ability to do that.

Expect long drawn out transfer sagas, inertia in signings as we try and sell/loan players, and a fair few unhappy players causing issues when the window closes. Of course you also can’t really get going until you have a manager in who tells you who they do / don’t want….

Wilcox is going to have a very busy start.

The key to the whole summer is getting the manager appointment right. We need someone who is going to unite the fan base, someone with respect and presence. I just hope SR get it right. 

[Viking Saint]

4 hours ago, Lee On Solent Saint said:

The key to the whole summer is getting the manager appointment right. We need someone who is going to unite the fan base, someone with respect and presence. I just hope SR get it right. 

Unfortunately, on form, I'm not feeling inspired.....

[saint1977]

8 hours ago, beatlesaint said:

Wishful thinking I'm afraid. they will all go.

The only good thing is with those going plus JWP and KWP obviously is the amount of money we should bring in to rebuild. I know you dont get or can command quite so much once youve gone down BUT if more than one club want a player that'll bump it back up a few million.

Not fussed by any of those three leaving, only players I’ll miss are JWP and KWP. Really don’t give a shiny one about anyone else, Stu in the past but Covid seems to have done for his stamina. Lavia has had some good little cameos on the occasions he’s been available, ABK ditto, potentially can you see a top flight player there in a few years time for a top-half/mid-table PL club but not a big enough sample size of games to judge now until he reaches adulthood as a centre back. Capped by Germany but no great shakes at the moment. Could say same with Lavia but a few levels above ABK’s ceiling if his body is up to it and could be CL level regular and Belgium national stalwart.

Salisu has struggled to get into the bottom of the table side, good defender but below PL standard with the ball for modern day top flight. Could be improved though with decent coaching of at least professional football standard at a better club, which has not been seen at Saints since Ronald left. Even Sholing probably have better coaching at first team level.  

Edited 9 April, 2023 by saint1977

[BotleySaint]

Guardian's "10 talking points frm the weekend" today suggests Lavia has a £40m buy-back clause to go to City. He would not look out of place back there.

[beatlesaint]

15 minutes ago, BotleySaint said:

Guardian's "10 talking points frm the weekend" today suggests Lavia has a £40m buy-back clause to go to City. He would not look out of place back there.

That would be similar to the Livramento clause with Chelsea then. I wonder if the City one is after two seasons like the Tino one ?

 

[Ex Lion Tamer]

I honestly don't know why people think Sulemana will leave. The guy has no end product. No one's paying close to the £20m we bought him for

[Give it to Ron]

On 10/04/2023 at 09:31, BotleySaint said:

Guardian's "10 talking points frm the weekend" today suggests Lavia has a £40m buy-back clause to go to City. He would not look out of place back there.

Yes kicks in 2024 but I think they will come back earlier.

Rumours others looking at him can only be good and push up the price

Edited 11 April, 2023 by Give it to Ron

[macca155]

Money will be the big issue. SR will need to sell some big assets and reduce the wage bill.

We can pretty much guarantee JWP, KWP, Tella and Adams are sold.

Out of contract players Walcott, Armstrong, Salisu, and Elyounoussi.

Want out, return abroad players Bendarik, Diallo, Lyanco and Orsic.

That leaves

Bazunu McCarthy

Bree Tino Stephens DCC ABK Simeu (possibly), Perraud Larios

Alcaraz Sulemana Aribo, Lavia, Smallbone, Djenepo , Edozie

Armstrong, Onuachu Mara, Ballard

Not too bad à squad for the Championship. Needs a younger Romeu in midfield but should be good enough.

The big plus is Tinos return, Lavia's contract situation (hard to sell without City's permission), and a returning in form Smallbone

Whether we keep all of them remains to be seen, but have to make room for Doyle and Ballard, so may see some moved on.

I've probably forgotten someone but if I have they need to do more 🤣

Edited 11 April, 2023 by macca155

[aintforever]

I’m amazed anyone thinks Che Adams is going to be poached by a Prem club after we go down. He’s a proven failure at this level and one of the main reasons we are bottom of the league. He and Armstrong are Championship standard at their best.

[sledger]

3 hours ago, Give it to Ron said:

Yes kicks in 2024 but I think they will come back earlier.

Rumours others looking at him can only be good and push up the price

if hes sold to anyone other than city dont they have a 20% sell on clause

[macca155]

10 hours ago, aintforever said:

I’m amazed anyone thinks Che Adams is going to be poached by a Prem club after we go down. He’s a proven failure at this level and one of the main reasons we are bottom of the league. He and Armstrong are Championship standard at their best.

I'm not sure Armstrong is even Championship standard anymore. I really like his effort and commitment, so want him to do well,  but it feels like his confidence is shot.

There are very few strikers who score in the Prem. Adams is an international and has scored a few. A promoted side will probably take a punt, as he will be cheap.

Best thing for him is to stay. He'll definitely score in the Championship and then maybe he'll take that confidence into the Premier league.

[saintrich]

Most of the obvious ones will go and a few based on contract situations, but I'd really like to see what Sulemana, Mara, Alcaraz and Tino can do if they stay.

Perraud and Bednarek could pop up with a fair few goals if they stayed. (not saying they will stay)

Berge at Sheff Utd, Sarr at Watford suggests we should be able to keep a couple of our players we'd like to keep, mainly due to wages and fees limits the amount of clubs who can buy.

 

[AlexLaw76]

10 hours ago, aintforever said:

I’m amazed anyone thinks Che Adams is going to be poached by a Prem club after we go down. He’s a proven failure at this level and one of the main reasons we are bottom of the league. He and Armstrong are Championship standard at their best.

Adams will be playing Premier League football next year.  That is likely

[S-Clarke]

10 hours ago, aintforever said:

I’m amazed anyone thinks Che Adams is going to be poached by a Prem club after we go down. He’s a proven failure at this level and one of the main reasons we are bottom of the league. He and Armstrong are Championship standard at their best.

He has always had suitors. Leicester, Leeds, Everton have sniffed around him for a few years now. He will not be here next year.

I think these clubs appreciate that whilst he's not a regular scorer, if you put him alongside a clinical goal scorer you can breath new life into your forward line and give yourself another dimension. Sadly we forgot to buy another clinical striker when we sold Ings, so we've been left with Adams trying to do a job  of two - which he was never really fit for anyway.

[SuperSAINT]

16 hours ago, aintforever said:

I’m amazed anyone thinks Che Adams is going to be poached by a Prem club after we go down. He’s a proven failure at this level and one of the main reasons we are bottom of the league. He and Armstrong are Championship standard at their best.

Prepare to be amazed.

[aintforever]

7 hours ago, S-Clarke said:

I think these clubs appreciate that whilst he's not a regular scorer, if you put him alongside a clinical goal scorer you can breath new life into your forward line and give yourself another dimension.

I guess someone might be desperate enough to buy him if he's cheap but is 13 assists in 121 appearances "breathing new life"? 

In the same time he has managed to rack up 44 'big chances missed'.

[Chez]

1 hour ago, aintforever said:

I guess someone might be desperate enough to buy him if he's cheap but is 13 assists in 121 appearances "breathing new life"? 

In the same time he has managed to rack up 44 'big chances missed'.

Him being acquired by another Prem side would be similar to us buying Shane Long way back when.